As I have for the past seven-plus years, I will share my thoughts
on my NFL.com
Playoff Challenge entry and playoff money leagues with Fuzzy's
Fantasy Football as we head into the second week of our postseason
odyssey. Last year, I combined the latter with DraftKings to provide
an even more comprehensive NFL Playoff resource. Let’s get
right to it:
NFL.com
For a complete rundown of how players will score fantasy points
for your team, click on the “Rules & Prizing”
link on the NFL.com
entry page. Much of the content immediately below is included
on the “How to Play” page, although the information
I provide below should be more than enough to follow along easily.
The requirements: one QB, two RBs, two WRs, one TE, one K
and one D/ST. You will earn fantasy points based on their on-field
performance during their game, and if your player's team wins,
you will have the option to carry that player over to the next
round, where he will earn a bonus point modifier to his score
(which will be referred to as 2x, 3x and 4x from here on out).
For example, if you pick Aaron
Rodgers in the Wild Card round and the Packers win, you can
carry him over to the Divisional Round, and earn two times (2x)
the points he earns in his divisional round game. If Green Bay
wins again, you can carry Rodgers into the Conference Championship
round for 3x the points and, if the Packers make the Super Bowl,
you can earn 4x the points. In addition, a user can select a player/defense
in the Wild Card round even if their team has a bye into the Divisional
Round. In this case, the user would not earn any points for the
Wild Card round, but be eligible to earn 2x points in the Divisional
round, since the player was on the team’s roster for two weekly
scoring periods. Further bonus point modifiers would also apply
as long as that player’s team continues to advance in the NFL
Playoffs.
Before we get into the picks, let’s briefly review the rules
and how we may use them to our advantage: 1) passing TDs are worth
four points, so passing yards are valued more highly here than
in the Fuzzy’s leagues I’ll discuss later; 2) all
field goals under 50 yards are worth three points, which means
we are more concerned about volume of field goals than distance
– unless we can find a kicker who regularly converts from
50-plus (DraftKings does not use kickers); 3) this is a non-PPR
format, which obviously favors the big-play threats (both Fuzzy's
and DraftKings are PPR); and 4) team wins are worth five points,
so picking a “winning” defense is worth almost a touchdown
prior to factoring in the modifiers.
Let's get the No. 1 rule of this game out of the way right now:
if you have a good feeling about which
two teams will meet in the Super Bowl, build your lineup exclusively
from players from those two teams. Most previous playoff
challenge champions' lineups are made up entirely of Super Bowl
participants. (In other words, it is important to project the
Super Bowl entrants first and figure out what players from those
teams to use second.) The multipliers are everything in this contest,
so playing the week-to-week matchups is nearly meaningless. Think
about it this way: if I told you that your regular-season fantasy
team's scoring would double in Week 2, triple in Week 3 and quadruple
in Week 4 if you simply left it the same, would it affect your
draft strategy? Of course it would. The big week your team might
post in the first week of this challenge - in the somewhat unlikely
event you played the matchups to a tee - is going to seem rather
insignificant in early February when every passing touchdown is
worth 16 points and every other TD is worth 24 and the top teams
in this competition are scoring 200-300 (or perhaps more) points
per week.
I went 3-for-4 with my straight-up picks last weekend, which
means I'm one step closer to identifying the correct Super Bowl
teams. While Seattle's win changed the NFC matchups I expected
for the Divisional Round, it doesn't affect the teams I anticipate
winning this weekend. Since I made no changes to my lineup, I
will spend much more time this week on the DFS/Fuzzy's section.
Quarterbacks
Tom Brady/Alex Smith/Ben Roethlisberger/Dak Prescott/Matt Ryan/Russell
Wilson/Aaron Rodgers
The call: Matt
Ryan (x2).The expected matchup isn't
what I planned (I predicted Lions over Seahawks, which would have
resulted in a Falcons-Packers matchup this weekend). No matter,
as I knew I was going against the grain a little bit by predicting
Detroit and made my selection of Ryan last week with the knowledge
Seattle could be the opponent in the Divisional Round. The Seahawks
are the worst of the four remaining NFC teams remaining in my
opinion, getting their only road wins of the season versus the
Jets, 49ers and the Patriots. S Earl Thomas' absence should really
show up this week as Atlanta's front five should be able to hold
up against Seattle's talented defensive line, and the Falcons
have multiple receivers (Julio Jones, Taylor Gabriel and Aldrick
Robinson) who can get behind any defense.
Pats a huge favorite? Blount usually finds
the endzone.
The call: LeGarrette
Blount (x2) and Devonta
Freeman (x2). If Houston beats New England in
Foxboro this weekend, perhaps we should prepare the apocalypse.
The Patriots should control this game throughout and may be able
to do the same to either the Chiefs or Steelers in the AFC Championship
game as well (given Kansas City's inconsistent offense and Big
Ben's road struggles). New England has relied on Blount all season
to put teams away in the second half and I don't anticipate a
shift in that thinking until at least next season.
Since the Falcons are my surprise NFC winner, it shouldn't come
as any surprise I choosing to go with their top back over everyone's
favorite rookie (Elliott). It's not a given Dallas will win at
home against Green Bay, and Atlanta strikes me as the NFC team
most capable of overcoming its biggest weakness (defense) because
it has the most complete offense. It doesn't matter to me if Freeman
has a slow day this weekend because my priority is to make sure
I have the guys on my team who have a great shot to have 4x next
to their names a few weeks from now. I think Freeman and Coleman
are those guys in the NFC.
The call: Julian
Edelman (x2) and Julio
Jones (x2). There's not really much to say here
that I didn't say last week or haven't already stated this week.
Edelman and Jones are the clear No. 1 receivers for the Patriots
and Falcons, respectively, and should be well-positioned to score
their fair share of fantasy points if New England and Atlanta
both advance to the Super Bowl. Both players have a tendency to
be immune to defensive schemes in crunch time, which is a big
deal since we don't exactly get to pick and choose our matchups
in this competition.
The call: Martellus
Bennett (x2). I really wish there was another
option, but if New England and Atlanta meet in Super Bowl, we
will be left with Bennett versus Austin Hooper and Levine Toilolo
(or Joshua Perkins). Even if Dallas or Green Bay make it all the
way, I'm not sure Witten or Cook thrill me any more than Bennett.
Kickers
Stephen Gostkowski/Cairo Santos/Chris Boswell/Dan Bailey/Matt
Bryant/Mason Crosby
The call: Matt
Bryant (x2). Bryant was fantasy's top-scoring
kicker and comes attached to a team that I believe will make it
into February. An added bonus this week is the Falcons could be
forced to settle for more field goals than usual against the Seahawks.
Another bonus: Bryant averaged 2.3 field-goal attempts and 3.6
extra-point kicks this season, making him a high-floor option
with about a 10-point floor.
Defense/Special Teams
Patriots/Chiefs/Steelers/Cowboys/Falcons
The call: Patriots
(x2). New England D/ST has, by far, the easiest of
the four Divisional Round matchups this weekend, so it boils down
to whether the Patriots take care of business or choose to believe
they have this game won before kickoff. Twelve of the 23 turnovers
New England forced this season came over the last five weeks of
the season. While none of the Patriots' opponents over that stretch
can be considered offensive powerhouses (Rams, Ravens, Broncos,
Jets and Dolphins), neither can Houston. This could be a potential
blowup spot for New England, which could have another favorable
matchup next week if Kansas City can beat Pittsburgh at home.
DraftKings/Fuzzy’s
Since the pick-your-studs competition with Fuzzy's and the salary
cap game of DraftKings essentially use the same PPR scoring (six
points for passing touchdowns with Fuzzy's versus four fantasy
points with DraftKings; three bonus points for 300 yards passing
or 100 yards rushing/receiving versus no such bonus with Fuzzy's
being the biggest differences), I'm going to essentially combine
the two again this postseason. I think by projecting each remaining
team one week at a time, I will be able to kill two birds with
one stone in this regard.
Below you will find my position-by-position projections. The
players I have highlighted in red are ones I feel should be roster
staples. Please note I have included DraftKings' dollar value
to each player I have projected, followed by their projected point
total in that format (DraftKings and then Fuzzy's). Because I
went into some detail above, I won't spend a great deal of time
explaining each projection here - only some of the more notable
ones. Each position is sorted by my DraftKings' projected point
total.
Key for quarterbacks, running backs, receivers
and tight ends: P Yds - Passing Yards P TD - Passing Touchdowns INT - Interceptions Ru Yds - Rushing Yards Ru TD - Rushing Touchdowns Rec Yds - Receiving Yards Rec TD - Receiving Touchdowns Rec - Receptions
DraftKings did a pretty good job pricing quarterbacks this week,
as the clear top-five options all will cost at least $6,000. Of
the top five, Brady might be the riskiest since the Patriots are
going against old friend Bill O'Brien and probably won't need three
touchdowns from their quarterback in order to create the separation
they need. I do want some exposure to him, but certainly not more
than the other four. The next riskiest is probably Wilson, since
it somewhat possible the Seahawks continue to ride their ground
game against a defense that hasn't always proven it can stop opposing
runners. Here's a troubling stat for Wilson
fans: in road games against the Jets and Patriots, he threw for
six touchdowns versus one interception. In the six other non-CenturyLink
Field contests, his TD-to-INT ratio was 2:7. It seems like
a pretty good bet Wilson will be needed as a runner this week, however,
so he should provide a safe floor.
The three quarterbacks I will invest most heavily in this week
are Ryan, Rodgers and Prescott. Ryan torched the Seahawks withEarl Thomas in Seattle earlier this season (335 yards, three TDs)
and I don't suspect the Falcons will have much more success running
the ball this week than they did in Week 6 (Freeman and Coleman
combined for 50 rushing yards and 67 total). Rodgers is doing
a fantastic job of carrying the Packers to heights they really
shouldn't be able to reach so far, but Green Bay's injuries (especially
in the secondary and now receiver) are going to catch up with
them sooner than later. As you might be able to conclude from
the gaudy totals in the D/ST below, I have 73 total points being
scored in Packers-Cowboys, so I am projecting a few garbage-time
points for Rodgers. While I'm typically not a fan of relying on
first-time playoff starters putting up monster numbers at quarterback,
Prescott appeals to me simply because the Packers are masking
a lot of deficiencies at cornerback. I'm not sure DC Dom Capers
will be able to do that again considering his top priority has
to be stopping Ezekiel Elliott this week. The Packers don't have
an answer for Dez Bryant and it is questionable if they even have
one for Cole Beasley.
I'm relatively new to the DFS game, but I don't recall any player
on DraftKings ever being priced as high as Bell this week. Placing
him in your lineup this week means owners will have an average of
less than $5,000 to spend at the other eight positions (typical
average starting out each week is just over $5555). While that may
not seem like much on the surface, the gap between Bell and Elliott's
price is the same as Davante Adams and Cole Beasley. That's a big
deal when trying to assemble 200-point lineups, which is usually
what it takes if you hope to come away with a decent payout. My
projections above suggests Bell is worth the investment, but doing
so means owners are going to have to bite the bullet throughout
the rest of their roster. Elliott should easily be worth his cost
by comparison, if only because there is such a huge chasm between
him and Bell and the rest of the running back field. Blount didn't
close the season with a bang, but he's easily the best bet of the
remaining backs to find the end zone (and he could do it more than
once if the Patriots can create some early separation). The only
concern with him might be Lewis, who may have been getting "saved"
for a playoff run. In a bit of a projected shootout in Seahawks-Falcons,
it might also pay off to be heavily invested in Prosise, as Atlanta
has been shredded by running backs in the passing game for most
of the season.
It should come as no surprise with so many quarterbacks projected
to do well above, receivers are going to prosper. While it is true
that Richard Sherman has strayed away from LCB at times, he is unlikely
to be a true shadow this weekend. RCB Deshawn Shead is hardly a
slouch either. However, if there is a weak link at cornerback for
Seattle this year, it is slot corner Jeremy Lane. I expect all of
the Falcons' primary receivers to get their shot in the slot this
week, but I'd be stunned if OC Kyle Shanahan didn't do everything
in his power to scheme Jones open and, thus, give him more inside
exposure than usual. The best value on the board is Edelman, who
won't have to contend with top outside corners A.J. Bouye or Johnathan Joseph and obviously won't have to worry about losing targets to
someone like Rob Gronkowski. Edelman has been targeted at least
11 times in all but one game since Week 10 (Gronk missed Week 11
and injured his back the following week) and has the best matchup
of all New England receivers. He will likely appear in all of my
DFS lineups. Like Sherman, Chiefs CB Marcus Peters rarely moves
off his LCB spot, so owners concerned about Brown for that reason
can relax. Big Ben's home-road splits are a much bigger worry, but
not so much that Brown can't take at least one short pass to the
house. Week 16 may have been the coming-out party most owners were
hoping for from Bryant. As usual, volume will be an issue, but if
the Cowboys are going to get involved in a shootout - and it says
here they will - Bryant will need to throw up the "X"
at least once. While I don't like him as much as Edelman this week,
he figures to be another DFS staple for me at his cost. For the
folks who care about such things, Green Bay was the opponent two
years ago when people who thought they knew what a catch was in
the NFL learned they didn't know as much as they thought.
Falcons slot CB Brian Poole finished as the 29th best corner
according to Pro Football Focus, so he should be a formidable
matchup for Baldwin. None of the Seahawks' receivers did much
of anything in the Week 6 matchup, but I believe Baldwin is going
to get a lot of his production as Seattle tries to rally late
- something it didn't have to do in the first meeting. Adams and
Cobb will be popular picks this week given the likely absence
of Jordy Nelson, although folks need to understand the Cowboys
are probably going to have more success staying on the field than
the Giants did, thus limiting the number of opportunities Rodgers
will have to expose the Cowboys' defense. Cobb benefited greatly
from the early losses of Nelson and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie,
who typically mans the slot for New York. That perfect storm -
plus the fact he was healthier than he had been in weeks - helped
create his Wild Card round masterpiece. He's highly unlikely to
have as much success against Orlando Scandrick this week. With
that said, he has a very nice price for a player with 20-plus
point potential. The last of the top-shelf plays this week in
my opinion is Hill. I hate the fact he comes attached to Alex Smith, but if the Chiefs find themselves in need of points - and
that's a distinct possibility against Pittsburgh - Hill will need
to be a big part of the effort to score and score quickly. DraftKings
rewards both the D/ST and the player on return touchdowns, which
gives Hill another avenue to reward his owners.
Of the remaining non-elite options, the wideouts I plan on investing
in the most will be Richardson, Gabriel, Butler and maybe Allison.
While I didn't know Richardson had one-handed catches in his bag
of tricks, I did mention him as a great value at his cost (I did
the same with Stills and Marvin Jones … good week for me).
Injuries have been the biggest obstacle in his career so far,
so now that he appears to be healthy and gaining Russell Wilson's
confidence, the absence of Tyler Lockett doesn't seem so big anymore.
Gabriel was a second-half darling for a number of owners and there's
no reason he can't continue producing despite limited opportunities.
Atlanta has too many weapons for defenses to treat Gabriel as
a primary threat and Shanahan does a great job dictating matchups.
Butler is probably the least likely of the aforementioned four
players to "hit", but he's a bigger-bodied receiver
who has a better shot at scoring in the red zone than Terrance Williams does on a deep shot. Allison's stock is obviously on
the rise with Nelson unlikely to go. While it is clear he has
earned Rodgers' trust (and that alone is reason enough to list
him here), one would have to think he is no better than fourth
in the pecking order, so go easy on his ownership as well.
It's going to be hard for me to pay up for Kelce this week despite
the fact he scored 13.3 points against the Steelers in the first
meeting and considering Pittsburgh surrendered at least 14.2 fantasy
points to a tight end in three of its final four regular-season
games. At $6,100, Kelce probably needs to score 20 in order to be
worth his price tag, so while I will have some shares of him in
my DFS lineups, I'll likely load up on Cook and Bennett instead.
Graham at $4,900 is intriguing (he was $5,300 last week), but I'm
scared off by the fact all six of his touchdowns the season came
in Seattle. Given Russell Wilson's inconsistency on the road, it
gives me further reason to avoid Graham. Dallas has been carved
up by tight ends all season long and Aaron Rodgers recently credited
Cook as being the biggest difference between the second-half (of
the season) Packers and the first-half version. As much as I can't
understand the reason why the Cowboys have been so pathetic at defending
the position this season (they were the stingiest unit in that regard
last season), Cook is in a blow-up spot this weekend. Bennett continues
to underwhelm and faces the league's third-stingiest defense against
tight ends this season in the Texans. I try not to overthink positional
matchups too much when it comes to a Brady-led offense, but there's
no question Rodgers is on the same level. Taking all that into account,
Cook's matchup is significantly better than Bennett's, making him
the easy choice.
Of the remaining options, I expect Fiedorowicz and Griffin to
post usable stats as Houston racks up garbage-time numbers in
the passing game. Griffin's price tag makes him a worthy punt
at the position, but Fiedorowicz is too expensive in relation
to Cook and Bennett.
Key for kickers and defense/special teams
units: XP - Extra point FG - Field goal PA - Points allowed TO - Total turnovers TD - Defensive/return touchdowns
Considering the plethora of points I am projecting this weekend,
there could be some surprisingly decent options here. I'm projecting
a return touchdown for the Chiefs (shocker), which allows them to
finish in a tie for first above. In reality, that's a hard thing
to count on, so I would limit my exposure into the Kansas City D/ST
as much as possible (unless you are counting on a Big Ben implosion).
DraftKings apparently decided to get out in front of the masses
in their pricing of the Patriots, who spent most of the season disappointing
in the fantasy box score before fattening up on a host of bad offenses
down the stretch. Unfortunately for the Texans, they belong in that
group of bad offenses. If you don't want to count on the Chiefs
D/ST scoring another return touchdown or pay up for New England
($4,000 is steep for a D/ST), the next best option very well could
be the Falcons. There isn't a ton of upside to rolling with any
of the bottom four defenses in my projections, and I'll admit the
Steelers are going to need some luck in order to turn Kansas City
over three times, which brings us back to the Atlanta D/ST. NFL
sack champion Vic Beasley could pick up a couple quarterback takedowns
this week against a poor Seattle front five, while Russell Wilson's
aforementioned road struggles could provide a few more points. The
safest option of this bunch is obviously the Patriots, but if rolling
with the Falcons allows you to play Antonio Brown over Doug Baldwin,
then I'd recommend going with the cheaper defense.
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.
