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Anatomy of a League Winner - Wide Receivers


Preseason Matchup Analysis

By Doug Orth | 6/30/20 |


Julio Jones

One of the most difficult - and sometimes impossible - tasks for any fantasy owner during the offseason is figuring out what players have league-winning upside. Certainly, the Christian McCaffrey's and Saquon Barkley's of the world come immediately to mind, but we need some pretty good luck in a traditional snake draft to land either one of those players.

To answer this "league-winner" question better, I decided to break down what one looks like - physically and statistically - by taking a closer look at each player that reached a particular fantasy-point benchmark that could be considered great or elite over the last three seasons. By using the best of the best in each position group over a three-year period as the basis for what is great versus elite, we should be able to create realistic parameters for what it takes to be a true fantasy difference-maker.

The goal of this analysis is to give readers a general idea of what characteristics - be it physical or statistical - they need to keep in mind on draft day. There will invariably be repeat entries (as in certain players appearing two or three times on the list). It's also OK to view this series of articles as something of a correlational study, but it's more than that. My top priority is trying to establish what benchmarks fantasy owners need to shoot for at each position, especially considering the different styles of players that exist in the game.

At the bottom of the sortable table, there is another mini-table summarizing the group averages, minimums and maximums of each category, hits and hit rate. The "hits" are how many players at that position exceeded the average of the players in the first table, while the hit rate is the percentage of "hits" in that group (a "greater than x" situation). In rare circumstances such as quarterback age, I opted for a "less than X" approach. The text will be red in those atypical situations. My advice to maximize the value of the table below: sort each column and then read the analysis that accompanies that column header.

Because we are discussing an average of the best of the best over the last three seasons, the "hit rate" percentages will probably be lower than some would expect Thus, anything over about 60 percent is notable because it suggests the group is bottom-heavy. Likewise, anything below about 40 percent suggests the group is top-heavy. This "rule" will apply to all positions.

Wide Receivers

Fantasy point threshold - 200-plus fantasy points. A total of 63 wideouts reached this mark over the last three seasons.

 League Winning WRs: 2017-2019
Rk Player Year Age Ht Wt G Tgt Tgt Share Rec ReYds ReTD Ctch% aDOR FPts FPts/G
1 Michael Thomas 2019 26 75 212 16 185 31.1 149 1725 9 80.5% 8.1 374.6 23.4
2 Tyreek Hill 2018 24 70 185 16 137 21.7 87 1479 12 63.5% 14.8 334.0 20.9
3 DeAndre Hopkins 2018 26 73 212 16 163 30.2 115 1572 11 70.6% 11.5 333.5 20.8
4 Davante Adams 2018 26 73 215 15 169 29.2 111 1386 13 65.7% 9.4 329.6 22.0
5 Julio Jones 2018 29 75 220 16 170 28.2 113 1677 8 66.5% 13.7 325.9 20.4
6 Antonio Brown 2018 30 70 185 15 168 26.5 104 1297 15 61.9% 10.8 323.7 21.6
7 Michael Thomas 2018 25 75 212 16 147 24.9 125 1405 9 85.0% 9.5 315.5 19.7
8 Antonio Brown 2017 29 70 185 14 163 27.9 101 1533 9 62.0% 13.3 310.3 22.2
9 DeAndre Hopkins 2017 25 73 212 15 174 35.4 96 1378 13 55.2% 12.8 309.8 20.7
10 Adam Thielen 2018 28 74 200 16 153 26.0 113 1373 9 73.9% 9.2 307.3 19.2
11 JuJu Smith-Schuster 2018 22 73 215 16 166 24.6 111 1426 7 66.9% 8.7 296.9 18.6
12 Mike Evans 2018 25 77 231 16 138 22.6 86 1524 8 62.3% 15.7 290.4 18.2
13 Keenan Allen 2017 25 74 211 16 159 27.9 102 1393 6 64.2% 9.0 284.2 17.8
14 Chris Godwin 2019 23 73 209 14 121 22.5 86 1333 9 71.1% 10.5 276.1 19.7
15 Julio Jones 2019 30 75 220 15 157 25.9 99 1394 6 63.1% 12.2 274.1 18.3
16 Cooper Kupp 2019 26 74 208 16 134 22.0 94 1161 10 70.1% 7.0 270.5 16.9
17 DeAndre Hopkins 2019 27 73 212 15 150 27.0 104 1165 7 69.3% 10.4 268.5 17.9
18 Stefon Diggs 2018 25 72 191 15 149 26.1 102 1021 9 68.5% 8.8 266.3 17.8
19 Robert Woods 2018 26 72 195 16 130 20.2 86 1219 6 66.2% 11.4 265.6 16.6
20 Keenan Allen 2019 27 74 211 16 149 26.0 104 1199 6 69.8% 10.1 261.5 16.3
21 Larry Fitzgerald 2017 34 75 218 16 161 27.6 109 1156 6 67.7% 8.1 261.4 16.3
22 Keenan Allen 2018 26 74 211 16 136 23.5 97 1196 6 71.3% 8.6 260.1 16.3
23 Jarvis Landry 2017 25 71 196 16 161 27.3 112 987 9 69.6% 5.8 260.0 16.3
24 Michael Thomas 2017 24 75 212 16 149 24.9 104 1245 5 69.8% 9.5 258.5 16.2
25 Julian Edelman 2019 33 70 198 16 153 26.4 100 1117 6 65.4% 9.1 256.3 16.0
26 Allen Robinson 2019 26 74 220 16 154 27.1 98 1147 7 63.6% 10.9 254.9 15.9
27 Julio Jones 2017 28 75 220 16 148 25.5 88 1444 3 59.5% 14.5 251.9 15.7
28 Kenny Golladay 2019 26 76 214 16 116 21.1 65 1190 11 56.0% 15.0 248.0 15.5
29 Amari Cooper 2019 25 73 210 16 119 20.7 79 1189 8 66.4% 12.8 246.5 15.4
30 DeVante Parker 2019 26 75 216 16 128 21.2 72 1202 9 56.3% 13.6 246.2 15.4
31 Tyreek Hill 2017 23 70 185 15 105 19.9 75 1183 7 71.4% 11.7 245.2 16.4
32 Brandin Cooks 2018 25 70 183 16 117 18.4 80 1204 5 68.4% 12.7 243.2 15.2
33 Adam Thielen 2017 27 74 200 16 142 23.7 91 1276 4 64.1% 10.6 239.7 15.0
34 T.Y. Hilton 2018 29 70 183 14 120 20.0 76 1270 6 63.3% 11.2 239.0 17.1
35 Jarvis Landry 2019 27 71 196 16 138 26.7 83 1174 6 60.1% 9.9 237.4 14.8
36 Tyler Lockett 2019 27 70 182 16 110 20.1 82 1057 8 74.5% 12.3 235.2 14.7
37 Robert Woods 2019 27 72 195 15 139 23.1 90 1134 2 64.7% 7.9 232.9 15.5
38 Mike Evans 2019 26 77 231 13 118 23.5 67 1157 8 56.8% 15.2 232.7 17.9
39 D.J. Moore 2019 22 71 215 15 135 24.3 87 1175 4 64.4% 11.2 230.5 15.4
40 Odell Beckham Jr. 2018 26 71 198 12 124 28.4 77 1052 6 62.1% 11.1 230.3 19.2
41 A.J. Green 2017 29 76 210 16 143 29.9 75 1078 8 52.4% 12.6 226.8 14.2
42 D.J. Chark 2019 23 76 198 15 118 22.2 73 1008 8 61.9% 11.9 225.8 15.1
43 Marvin Jones 2017 27 74 199 16 107 18.9 61 1101 9 57.0% 15.3 225.1 14.1
44 Golden Tate 2017 29 70 197 16 120 21.4 92 1003 5 76.7% 5.9 224.5 14.0
45 Doug Baldwin 2017 29 70 192 16 116 22.6 75 991 8 64.7% 12.8 223.3 14.0
46 Tyler Boyd 2019 25 74 203 16 148 25.1 90 1046 5 60.8% 9.3 222.9 13.9
47 Davante Adams 2017 25 73 215 14 117 24.8 74 885 10 63.2% 9.4 222.5 15.9
48 Courtland Sutton 2019 24 76 216 16 124 25.7 72 1112 6 58.1% 11.7 222.4 13.9
49 Tyler Lockett 2018 26 70 182 16 70 15.4 57 965 10 81.4% 13.3 222.4 13.9
50 Brandin Cooks 2017 24 70 183 16 114 15.7 65 1082 7 57.0% 15.2 221.2 13.8
51 Tyler Boyd 2018 24 74 203 14 108 22.0 76 1028 7 70.4% 9.6 221.1 15.8
52 John Brown 2019 29 71 178 15 115 23.7 72 1060 6 62.6% 14.3 219.8 14.7
53 Jarvis Landry 2018 26 71 196 16 149 26.4 81 976 4 54.4% 10.9 217.1 13.6
54 A.J. Brown 2019 22 72 226 16 84 17.1 52 1051 8 61.9% 13.3 217.1 13.6
55 Davante Adams 2019 27 73 215 12 127 27.0 83 997 5 65.4% 10.0 212.7 17.7
56 Michael Gallup 2019 23 73 198 14 113 21.8 66 1107 6 58.4% 12.4 212.7 15.2
57 Stefon Diggs 2019 26 72 191 15 94 19.5 63 1130 6 67.0% 14.8 212.1 14.1
58 Julian Edelman 2018 32 70 198 12 108 19.6 74 850 6 68.5% 7.8 207.4 17.3
59 Kenny Golladay 2018 25 76 214 15 119 22.4 70 1063 5 58.8% 11.9 207.1 13.8
60 Calvin Ridley 2018 24 73 190 16 92 17.5 64 821 10 69.6% 13.5 206.8 12.9
61 Demaryius Thomas 2017 30 75 225 16 140 25.4 83 949 5 59.3% 10.6 205.9 12.9
62 Mike Evans 2017 24 77 231 15 136 24.1 71 1001 5 52.2% 13.6 203.1 13.5
63 Odell Beckham Jr. 2019 27 71 198 16 133 25.9 74 1035 4 55.6% 12.8 201.3 12.6

* - Amari Cooper (2018) was excluded from this analysis despite scoring over 200 fantasy points two years ago because he was traded during the middle of the season.

 WRs As A Group: 2017-2019
  Age Ht Wt G Tgt Tgt Share Rec ReYd ReTD Ctch% aDOR FPts FPts/G
Group Average 26.3 73 204.5 15.3 134.1 24 87 1183.4 7.3 64.9% 11.3 252.5 16.5
Group Minimum 22 70 178 12 70 15 52 821 2 52.2% 6 201.0 13.0
Group Maximum 34 77 231 16 185 35 149 1725 15 85.0% 16 375.0 23.0
Hits (greater than avg) 39 38 32 39 33 33 27 26 28 29 31 26 23
Hit Rate 62% 60% 51% 62% 52% 52% 43% 41% 44% 46% 49% 41% 37%

Age - There is a bit more acceptance in the 30-and-over club at receiver than at running back, as six of the 63 entries (9.5 percent) fall into that category. The age-26 group is the largest with 14 of the 63 (22.2 percent) landing in that group. However, the odds are not all that great for receivers hoping to consistently make the cut once they hit 28 unless they are an all-time great or close to it, as Julio Jones, Antonio Brown and Julian Edelman are the only repeat qualifiers. A staggering 76.2 percent (48 of 63) of the entries in the above table are 27 and younger.

Height (inches) - Eighteen receivers are responsible for 43 of the 63 entries in the above table, significantly corrupting the potential to scrub any kind of potentially valuable information from a number of the categories we are about to discuss. With that said, a solid 39.7 percent (25 of 63) of the instances above are for players who stand 6-0 or shorter. It's worth pointing out that the shortest receivers to qualify (5-10) just happen to have the most entries within the group (13) and three top-10 finishes among them. This three-year examination seems to slightly disprove taller receivers scoring more touchdowns, or at least doing so at the highest of levels. Of the 10 entries with at least 10 receiving TDs above, nine of them were 6-2 or shorter.

Weight - Unless we are talking about special talents such as Antonio Brown and Hill, fantasy owners would be wise to target receivers in the 190-and-over weight range - 53 of 63 (84.1 percent) fall within that range. And while most receivers entering the league check that box, it makes sense: receivers need to be built to last just like any other skill position. After we eliminate Hill and Brown's three top-eight finishes, there isn't another sub-190 pound receiver with a top-30 finish above.

Games - There's no reason to belabor the point of a player needing to stay healthy and playing most of his team's games. Fifty-three of the 63 entries above (84.1 percent) played at least 15 games. A 14-game season is also doable, but it gets awful difficult if the number dips below that.

Targets - Lockett was able to make the list in 2018 despite recording only 70 targets largely because he scored 10 touchdowns. A.J. Brown got by on 84 targets because he averaged over 20 yards per catch on 52 receptions and visited the end zone eight times. Even Ridley needed 10 TDs on 92 targets just to sneak into the group of 63. The point: receivers need at least 100 targets just to have a chance to be on this list. We don't find our first top 10 entry until Hill's 137 targets in 2018. So, it's a pretty good bet owners need to see their receiver average at least nine targets if they have any hope of enjoying a truly special year.

Target share - If a receiver requires at least 130 targets to be truly special in a given year, it stands to reason he's going to command at least 20 percent of the target share since most teams don't end up attempting 650 passes (130/650 = 20%). That's exactly what we find here, as each of the top 30 entries above enjoyed a target share of at least 20 percent. Of course, 100 targets in an offense that attempts 500 throws isn't the same as 130 in the aforementioned offense even though both receivers are getting a 20 percent share, but 20 percent is a good baseline to keep in mind when trying to identify a receiver capable of being a league-winner type.

Receptions - A high catch total is unquestionable important in any league that awards a point for each reception, but it is notable the highest finish for any player with fewer than 86 catches over the last three seasons is 29th (Cooper last year). Conversely, the lowest finish by a receiver on this list with at least 94 catches is 26th. In fact, 22 of the top 26 fantasy performances by a receiver above (84.6 percent) are by wideouts in this latter range. One of the more obvious statements in this piece figures to be that a receiver with a high catch total is going to fare well in fantasy, but think about how many of these receivers were typically available in the third, fourth or fifth round of drafts in the year they managed at least 94 catches. Each of the 22 aforementioned wideouts had a target share of at least 22 percent. While many fantasy owners may not enter drafts expecting those third-, fourth- or fifth-round receivers to see that level of involvement, it is unusual that a receiver makes the jump from 10 to 22 percent from one year to the next without some unpredictable situation occurring.

Receiving yards - It's a bit surprising there are nine instances above in which a receiver didn't top 1,000 yards, although 33.3 percent of those were within 13 yards. Be that as it may, Antonio Brown's 1,297 receiving yards in 2018 is the lowest total from a top-10 performer above. A 1.000-yard campaign is a near must to be in the running for league-winning status, but it could be argued 1,100 is probably the number most fantasy owners should shoot for when setting expectations on a potential league-winning receiver - 22 of the top 23 (95.7 percent) fantasy-point totals above come from receivers that reached that benchmark.

Receiving TDs - Nine of the top 10 fantasy performances since 2017 have come from wideouts who scored at least nine times. As the table shows, however, 46 percent of the entries (29 of 63) scored six or fewer receiving TDs. It's a much better strategy to focus on the high-volume receivers and hope for some good TD luck as opposed to hoping for the 2018 version of Mike Williams (10 TDs on 43 catches), but there is definitely an upside to rolling the dice on a player like that and starting him every week so long as he is alongside two short-area and/or intermediate receivers (to be discussed in the aDOR section shortly).

Catch rate - This stat often depends on how often a quarterback delivers a catchable pass (the majority of them do so at a 75-percent-and-up clip) and the average depth of route (shorter - higher percentage, longer - lower percentage). Receivers are typically in the 60 percent range and generally need to be in that area to be elite fantasy producers. (For what it's worth, receivers above with an aDOR (average depth of reception) lower than 9.4 enjoyed a catch rate of 69.2 percent. Receivers above 13.7 aDOR were at 60.2 percent. The intermediate group had a catch rate of 64.5 percent.) In fact, only one receiver had a catch rate below 61 percent and finished in the top 25 above (Hopkins, 2017). Catch rate is yet another hard statistic to predict on a year-to-year basis, but that's why the safe play is typically relying on short-area and intermediate receivers.

aDOR (Average Depth of Reception) - It's common knowledge that deeper targets/catches are worth more in the overall scheme of things, but that comes with the trade-off of deeper targets usually resulting in slightly lower catch rates. Thomas got by with an 8.1 aDOR in 2019 because he was fed so many targets and caught 80.5 percent of them, but the bulk of top performances over the last three years are in the 9.4-13.7 range (39 of 63, or 61.9 percent). Short-area receivers (think Crowder and Edelman) are often low-risk, low-yield types that deliver consistency. Deep wideouts (think Diggs in 2019) are often high-risk, high-yield properties that are usually highly volatile. Intermediate receivers (think Hopkins) are the most likely to offer the best of both worlds, combining the relatively low risk of short-area receivers with the high yield of deeper receivers. While Evans and Hill both posted top-12 finishes with an aDOR higher than 13.7, it's telling that none of the other seven entries finished higher than 27th.

Approximate baselines for receivers to approach potential league-winner status:

Short-area receivers (aDOR of less than 9.9): 90 receptions, 1,050 total yards and six total TDs

Intermediate receivers (aDOR of 10 to 12.9): 80 receptions, 1,100 total yards and seven total TDs

Deep receivers (aDOR of 13 or higher): 70 receptions, 1,200 total yards, eight total TDs


Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.