A few years ago, I decided to use the final Blitz of the season
to give fantasy managers a sounding board for their toughest lineup
decisions entering their league's fantasy championship game. Given
how well the idea was received initially, it only made sense to
extend it to all three fantasy playoff weeks.
Below are six reader questions (submitted via X or the FFT forum)
and my answers. Any special scoring rules will also appear in
the question or immediately thereafter.
Showboat: (TD league with 100-yard bonus); should I start Rhamondre
Stevenson (@BUF), Sam LaPorta (@CHI) or Cade Otton (@DAL)?
The short answer: LaPorta.
My rationale: Not exactly an easy question to
answer to begin the week. None of the three options above is a
great bet to reach 100 yards. The Bills figure to force the Patriots
into negative game script quickly, so Stevenson probably isn't
reaching the century mark. LaPorta's only 100-yard outing this
season was last week as the Lions played from behind all game
against Buffalo. Can Chicago force Detroit to do likewise? Unlikely.
Otton has mostly been a non-factor for the Bucs over the last
five games, failing to top 35 yards receiving four times over
that span. The University of Washington product also did not practice
Wednesday or Thursday this week due to a knee injury, making it
possible he may not go in Week 16.
With none of the three players likely to push for 100 yards,
we must decide who the best bet to score a touchdown is. Stevenson
has been held scoreless over the last five games. He is attached
to a sub-par offense and seems to be losing more touches than
he should to Antonio Gibson recently. The Bills are a great on-paper
matchup and have surrendered 15 total touchdowns to running backs,
which works in Stevenson's favor. LaPorta was one the biggest
disappointments in fantasy for most of the season but has turned
it on lately as Detroit's defense has been ravaged by injuries,
forcing the Lions to outscore their opponents (as opposed to bludgeoning
them as they were earlier in the season). On the plus side, LaPorta
scored two touchdowns in Detroit's first meeting with Chicago
on Thanksgiving Day. Otton would have been an easy answer to this
question a few weeks ago, but he is also on a five-game scoreless
streak and is struggling to earn enough targets to remain relevant.
The answer to this question comes down to how much a talented
running back can overcome his situation to take advantage of what
appears to be a favorable on-paper matchup versus a talented tight
end in a great offense overcoming all the mouths to feed on his
team to score one of the four or five touchdowns. If we could
count on Gibson being a non-factor, I would probably opt for Stevenson.
Considering LaPorta is one of his team's top red zone options
and the Lions just lost their goal-line hammer in David Montgomery,
the odds of LaPorta finding the end zone have likely increased
over the last week. Chicago has also yielded three 100-yard receiving
efforts to tight ends this season. Primarily for those reasons,
I would roll with LaPorta.
Gratefulegg1973: (PPR with bonuses for long touchdowns). I need
one of the following: Brian Robinson Jr. (vs. PHI), Chuba Hubbard
(vs. ARI), DK Metcalf (vs. MIN) and DeVonta Smith (@WAS).
The short answer: Hubbard.
My rationale: Metcalf has appeared on all but one injury report
since initially injuring his knee in Week 7, although the last
four entries have been for a shoulder issue. The Packers thought
he was healthy enough in Week 15 to make sure he was not the reason
the Seahawks beat them, but it seems rather obvious at this point
that he is not healthy (no games with more than 14 PPR points
since his Week 11 return). The emergence of Jaxon Smith-Njigba
is contributing to some of that, but there has also been more
than enough volume in the passing game to keep both players happy
(except for Week 15). I also refuse to believe a healthy Metcalf
is anything less than an equal partner to JSN in the passing game.
For those reasons, I am out on Metcalf despite the Seahawks facing
what has been the best matchup for receivers this season.
Robinson is more of a consideration for me given his expected
volume, but the matchup is awful. Philadelphia has surrendered
five touchdowns to running backs this season (one to Robinson
in the first meeting back in Week 11). The only running backs
to top 15 PPR fantasy points against the Eagles in 2024 have each
been greatly aided by their work in the passing game. It is not
that Robinson cannot be useful as a receiver, it is just not an
avenue Washington has chosen to take with him under OC Kliff Kingsbury.
He feels too much like a touchdown-or-bust option this week in
a matchup that suggests he could struggle to score.
It was nice to see the Eagles finally take advantage of the fact
they have two alpha receivers last week. How much of Smith's 11-109-1
explosion was a product of the Steelers mostly bottling up Saquon Barkley, how much of it was the Eagles picking their spots with
Joey Porter Jr. mostly guarding A.J. Brown and how much of it
was OC Kellen Moore/Jalen Hurts exploiting an early back injury
to Dirty Dozen graduateDonte Jackson is up for debate. Brown will be involved in the
offense regardless of who lines up across from him, but he should
draw primary coverage this week from Marshon Lattimore, which
could open the door for Smith to have another big day. The difference
this week is that Barkley should have a much easier time with
his job. In other words, it would not surprise me if Smith outperforms
Brown in fantasy for a second straight week, but I have my doubts
that Smith will come anywhere close to matching last week's production.
What was most encouraging about last week's performance from the
Eagles is that we saw Philadelphia look like a complete offense
for the first time in a long time.
We could be reaching a point where Hubbard is starting to wear
down (four straight games with less than four yards per carry),
although he does not appear to be running or moving any differently
than he did earlier. I choose to believe at least two of his recent
performances have more to do with the opponent, as the Chiefs
(Week 12) and Eagles (Week 14) are two of the three worst matchups
for fantasy running backs this season. Tampa Bay (Week 13) has
improved in that regard as well as the season has progressed.
The Cowboys should have been a get-right matchup - in terms of
Hubbard's efficiency - based on their season-long troubles against
the run, but Week 15 marked the third consecutive game in which
they held up reasonably well. Unlike many other Carolina games
this season, there was no touchdown or goal-line opportunities
to save Hubbard last week either. The Cardinals should be the
most forgiving run defense the Panthers have faced in over a month.
What's more, Arizona has also struggled against running backs
of late. Zach Charbonnet has a field day with 38.3 fantasy points
versus Arizona in Week 14 (most notably, 22-134-2 on the ground)
and Rhamondre Stevenson averaged over five yards per carry behind
what is one of the league's worst offensive lines last week. Hubbard
will get the volume he needs if Carolina can keep it close, and
it says here that the Panthers will do that after laying an egg
in my opinion last week.
pipeman: (PPR) I need to decide which two of these four to start:
Jonathan Taylor (vs. TEN), Rico Dowdle (vs. TB), Drake London
(vs. NYG) and Brian Robinson Jr. (vs. PHI).
The short answer: London and Taylor.
My rationale: I cannot answer this question with much conviction.
Taylor has been receiving great volume but lacks PPR upside in
an Anthony Richardson-led passing attack. Dowdle has also been
seeing great volume has great volume but faces a Tampa Bay run
defense that has played reasonably well since Week 9. London will
presumably get a quarterback upgrade in Michael Penix Jr. but
may not see the kind of volume he became accustomed to during
the first two-plus months of the season playing with a quarterback
making his first career NFL start. Robinson also should see plenty
of volume but has the worst matchup of the bunch. Since I discussed
Robinson earlier, I will move on to the others, in part because
I do not have a lot of faith in him this week.
The Titans are not a great matchup for running backs either,
but I will almost always take a chance on the talent if I have
questions about how good the opponent is at stopping what that
player does best. The Broncos were a more difficult on-paper matchup
for the Colts last week and Taylor was a goal-line "fumble"
away from scoring almost 20 fantasy points. (NFL players, please
stop thinking it is cool to drop the ball just as you think you
are crossing the goal line … it is not worth it.) Tennessee
boasts a very good defensive front but is not overly intimidating
at linebacker, which should allow Taylor to break some explosive
runs. The Titans also do not have a great offense, so it seems
unlikely the Colts will be chasing points, which means they can
rely more on the ground game.
Dowdle has been running about as hot as any running back over
the last three weeks, although I would counter that the Giants,
Bengals and Panthers have not presented the Cowboys with much
resistance. For all of their relative struggles at bottling up
running backs in the first half of the season, the Bucs have been
much better at doing that lately. Tampa Bay is still not a run
defense I would fear with an elite running back, but Dowdle is
not that. Moreover, a Chuma Edoga-Tyler Smith-Cooper Beede-T.J. Bass-Terence Steele front line should not scare the Bucs all that
much either. For what it is worth, Tampa Bay has not allowed a
touchdown to a running back in three games and only one since
Week 9 (a meaningless 1-yard plunge from Devin Singletary with
the Bucs leading 30-0 early in the fourth quarter in Week 12).
Despite how poor Kirk Cousins was playing near the end of his
time as Atlanta's starting quarterback, London's status as a low-end
WR1 never wavered. Even in the Falcons' dreadful Monday Night
Football win over the Raiders in Week 15, London caught all three
of his targets for 53 yards and a touchdown. With that in mind,
it would be reasonable to fade London since there is no way Penix
- with his limited experience - can be expected to match what
Cousins did when he was at his best this season. Penix also may
not have volume working in his favor this week with the Falcons
expected to lean on the rushing attack again, but he does not
lack for talent. As such, I think it is entirely reasonable to
expect Penix for two scores this week. If he does, it seems likely
one of them will go to London.
gcmmidwest: Brock Purdy (@MIA), Russell Wilson (vs. BAL) or
Matthew Stafford (@NYJ)?
The short answer: Stafford.
My rationale: One of the primary reasons Miami has been the worst
matchup for quarterbacks this season is because it has done such
a great job of limiting their rushing production (140 yards and
no touchdowns despite facing Josh Allen twice, Kyler Murray, Drake Maye and Anthony Richardson). While Purdy does not generate much
value with his legs, knowing he has one less avenue toward fantasy
production makes this an easier decision. With that in mind, it
makes the Dolphins' accomplishment all the more impressive that
only five quarterbacks have thrown for multiple scores against
Miami. Further consider Purdy has thrown for multiple scores once
in the last four games and only twice since Week 6. Last but not
least, Purdy has failed to top 159 yards passing in those same
three games (only dicing up the Bears for 325 in Week 14).
I cannot imagine being in such a rough spot at quarterback that
I would need to consider starting Wilson this week. With George Pickens (hamstring) already ruled out and Wilson having thrown
for a total of 286 yards in the previous two games without his
alpha receiver, the 36-year-old is not even a floor play in my
opinion. He scored 8.3 fantasy points on 36 pass attempts in the
first meeting with Baltimore with a healthy Pickens. I shudder
to think what might happen this time around with the Ravens playing
better pass defense.
Stafford has not exactly been Mr. Consistency and is coming off
what was a bad game for just about every player involved in it
not named Puka Nacua. Stafford's only other bad game since Nacua
and Cooper Kupp returned from injury was in Week 10 against a
Miami defense that I just noted has been the worst matchup for
quarterbacks this season. In every other game, Stafford has thrown
for at least two touchdowns and twice thrown for four. Please
understand the Jets are not an easy matchup, but they did just
surrender 294 yards passing and 29 yards rushing to Mac Jones.
Furthermore, Jones' two interceptions in that game were the first
ones the Jets have forced since Week 5. Stafford probably will
not match Jones' Week 15 production, but New York appears to have
lost whatever edge it once had on defense.
Mike FF Today: (Half PPR) Patrick Taylor (@MIA), Kendre Miller
(@GB) or Jerry Jeudy (@CIN)?
The short answer: Miller.
SHAMELESS PLUG ALERT!!! I answered questions similar to this
one and many others before Thursday Night Football on the FFPC
High-Stakes Fantasy Hour on Dec. 19.
My rationale: Up until the point when the Browns made the fateful
decision to name Dorian Thompson-Robinson the starting quarterback
for Week 16, Jeudy was likely a top-10 receiver play this week
and the easy answer to this question. However, DTR has made three
career NFL starts. He has not thrown for more than 165 yards in
any of them and produced a touchdown-to-interception ratio of
1:4 in those starts. (You are reading that correctly.) Mind you,
all three of those starts came last year without Jeudy on the
roster. With that said, Amari Cooper was on the roster and playing
at a high level. Jeudy could theoretically be force-fed with David Njoku (hamstring) and Cedric Tillman (concussion) likely to miss
another game, but where is the upside? DTR has yet to complete
more than 56 percent of his passes in any of the four games in
which he has attempted more than 10 passes. The Browns will probably
score a touchdown or two just because the Bengals are not great
defensively, but that even feels like a stretch. Interestingly,
Thompson-Robinson's only significant action this season came against
the Bengals in Week 7 (11-of-24 for 82 yards and two interceptions
before leaving due to injury). He targeted Jeudy six times in
that contest, leading to one catch for 16 yards and an interception.
Say what you will about small sample size, but DTR has given us
no reason to be optimistic about him or any of his pass-catchers
this week.
As I noted during the linked FFPC pod from last night, Taylor
is probably pushing the whole "Kyle Shanahan can make any
running back a star" narrative. If LT Trent Williams was
healthy, I might give Taylor more consideration in fantasy this
week. (The splits of how productive San Francisco's offense is
with Williams on the field and not on the field during his time
in San Francisco are ridiculous.) Taylor is probably better than
most team's fifth-string running back, but there is a reason he
is where he is on the depth chart. Also, keep in mind no individual
rusher has run for more than 43 yards against the Dolphins since
Week 10. Last but not least, Dolphins HC Mike Daniel used to serve
as Shanahan's run-game coordinator and offensive coordinator.
Few coaches are going to understand what Shanahan is trying to
accomplish with every play call better than McDaniel.
This brings us to Miller, who appears to be in line for a huge
workload with Alvin Kamara likely done for the season with a groin
injury he suffered in Week 15. The Saints' skill-position players
have been decimated by injury. None of the Week 1 starters in
those spots is expected to suit up for this week's Monday Night
Football game in Green Bay. Interestingly, the original offensive
line is relatively intact. Much like Taylor above, we don't have
much NFL film on which to base our lineup decision. Unlike Taylor,
Miller's problem has been a lack of durability and not a lack
of talent. Miller has never been asked to handle a heavy workload
in New Orleans, but the results have typically been quite good
when he has been given a chance at a decent workload. In the three
career games he has touched the ball at least 10 times, he has
done the following:
Week 5 (2023): 12 carries for 37 yards; four
catches for 53 yards (11.0 HPPR points)
Week 18 (2023): 13 carries for 73 yards and a
touchdown; one catch for six yards (14.4)
Week 14 (2024): 10 carries for 32 yards and a
touchdown (9.2)
The Saints' only shot of beating the Packers is limiting the number
of times Green Bay has the ball, which means we should expect
a heavy dose of the running game. While Miller is not in Kamara's
class, it is at least notable that the latter handled at least
20 touches in every game under interim HC Darren Rizzi before
getting hurt early last week. The Packers have been a middle-of-the-pack
defense against running backs, so Miller's ceiling is probably
not very high this week. With that said, Zach Charbonnet scored
13.1 half-PPR fantasy points against Green Bay on half of the
volume I expect from Miller this week. Is Miller a dicey start
this week? You bet he is. Does he have the ability to bust a long
TD run and finish as a top-20 running back this week? Absolutely.
I Sneezed: Has fantasy shifted back to more importance on workhorse
RB? I imagine drafts next year will have Saquon Barkley and Derrick
Henry as 1-2.
My answer: I wanted to include this question
because it is only natural at this time of year to think about
what we did right, what we did wrong and how we can get better
for next season. I don't think the importance of the workhorse
running back has ever waned. Running backs - especially those
with locked-in volume and/or a huge role in the passing game -
will usually possess the most fantasy upside. Drafting running
backs such as Barkley, Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson is a great
way to start a team because their NFL teams are in positive game
scripts so often, maximize their touches and play with a supporting
cast or in a scheme that puts them in position to score touchdowns
every week. On the downside, the injury risk is always real at
the position. That is unlikely to change anytime soon.
I believe the shift that will begin taking place as early as
next season is something that seemed to take place in drafts this
summer. There are elite options, such as the three I already mentioned
along with Christian McCaffrey, Henry, Josh Jacobs and a few others.
After that, managers probably need to consider avoiding the middle
class. Think about how many running backs in the seventh round
or later this season performed like the fourth- or fifth-rounders.
Tony Pollard, Chase Brown, Bucky Irving, Chuba Hubbard and Brian Robinson Jr. were among several mid-round backs who performed
at roughly the same level or better than Breece Hall, Kenneth Walker or Isiah Pacheco. Then again, some version of this is true
every year.
My point is this: I think the importance of grabbing one workhorse
running back is as high as it has ever been, but only if injury
is the only obstacle standing between him and massive volume.
Once I get that player, I will strongly consider avoiding the
"middle class" at the running back position altogether.
Give me a strong RB1 option who meets the qualifications I set
above in the first round or two. After that, I intend to hammer
every other position - which includes drafting at least four receivers
over the first six rounds in leagues that require three starters
at the position - before revisiting running back in the seventh
or eighth round. At that point, I think the focus needs to turn
from trying to lock up the last remaining starting running backs
to the most talented players in muddy backfields and/or the highest-upside
handcuffs. Call it Hero RB if you want, but I think it is more
about recognizing there are about 6-8 true RB1s most years and
a boatload of backs who typically vie for RB2/3 consideration.
For example, there was no question that Chase
Brown was a better running back than Zack
Moss this summer. What I did not want to do was wait eight
weeks for the Bengals to come to the same realization, so I did
not end up with him very often. Will we miss on some of our "sleepers"
if we don't take our second running back until Round 7 or 8? Absolutely.
The hit rate is low in that area. However, the odds of finding
next year's version of Hubbard, Brown or Irving increase dramatically
if we take four of five shots in Rounds 7-12.
I think I did what I am preaching here this summer, I just did
not do it as often as I could have. I just had the best fantasy
regular season I have ever had in my 20-plus years of playing
fantasy football, so understand what I am saying here. My Big
Board served me (and I believe many others) quite well. My plan
entering each of my drafts was usually sound as well, as I made
the playoffs in 15 of my 18 high-stakes leagues. With that said,
there is always room for improvement.
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.