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Playoff Week #2 Q&A



By Doug Orth | 12/20/24 |

A few years ago, I decided to use the final Blitz of the season to give fantasy managers a sounding board for their toughest lineup decisions entering their league's fantasy championship game. Given how well the idea was received initially, it only made sense to extend it to all three fantasy playoff weeks.

Below are six reader questions (submitted via X or the FFT forum) and my answers. Any special scoring rules will also appear in the question or immediately thereafter.

Showboat: (TD league with 100-yard bonus); should I start Rhamondre Stevenson (@BUF), Sam LaPorta (@CHI) or Cade Otton (@DAL)?

The short answer: LaPorta.

My rationale: Not exactly an easy question to answer to begin the week. None of the three options above is a great bet to reach 100 yards. The Bills figure to force the Patriots into negative game script quickly, so Stevenson probably isn't reaching the century mark. LaPorta's only 100-yard outing this season was last week as the Lions played from behind all game against Buffalo. Can Chicago force Detroit to do likewise? Unlikely. Otton has mostly been a non-factor for the Bucs over the last five games, failing to top 35 yards receiving four times over that span. The University of Washington product also did not practice Wednesday or Thursday this week due to a knee injury, making it possible he may not go in Week 16.

With none of the three players likely to push for 100 yards, we must decide who the best bet to score a touchdown is. Stevenson has been held scoreless over the last five games. He is attached to a sub-par offense and seems to be losing more touches than he should to Antonio Gibson recently. The Bills are a great on-paper matchup and have surrendered 15 total touchdowns to running backs, which works in Stevenson's favor. LaPorta was one the biggest disappointments in fantasy for most of the season but has turned it on lately as Detroit's defense has been ravaged by injuries, forcing the Lions to outscore their opponents (as opposed to bludgeoning them as they were earlier in the season). On the plus side, LaPorta scored two touchdowns in Detroit's first meeting with Chicago on Thanksgiving Day. Otton would have been an easy answer to this question a few weeks ago, but he is also on a five-game scoreless streak and is struggling to earn enough targets to remain relevant.

The answer to this question comes down to how much a talented running back can overcome his situation to take advantage of what appears to be a favorable on-paper matchup versus a talented tight end in a great offense overcoming all the mouths to feed on his team to score one of the four or five touchdowns. If we could count on Gibson being a non-factor, I would probably opt for Stevenson. Considering LaPorta is one of his team's top red zone options and the Lions just lost their goal-line hammer in David Montgomery, the odds of LaPorta finding the end zone have likely increased over the last week. Chicago has also yielded three 100-yard receiving efforts to tight ends this season. Primarily for those reasons, I would roll with LaPorta.

Chuba Hubbard

Gratefulegg1973: (PPR with bonuses for long touchdowns). I need one of the following: Brian Robinson Jr. (vs. PHI), Chuba Hubbard (vs. ARI), DK Metcalf (vs. MIN) and DeVonta Smith (@WAS).

The short answer: Hubbard.

My rationale: Metcalf has appeared on all but one injury report since initially injuring his knee in Week 7, although the last four entries have been for a shoulder issue. The Packers thought he was healthy enough in Week 15 to make sure he was not the reason the Seahawks beat them, but it seems rather obvious at this point that he is not healthy (no games with more than 14 PPR points since his Week 11 return). The emergence of Jaxon Smith-Njigba is contributing to some of that, but there has also been more than enough volume in the passing game to keep both players happy (except for Week 15). I also refuse to believe a healthy Metcalf is anything less than an equal partner to JSN in the passing game. For those reasons, I am out on Metcalf despite the Seahawks facing what has been the best matchup for receivers this season.

Robinson is more of a consideration for me given his expected volume, but the matchup is awful. Philadelphia has surrendered five touchdowns to running backs this season (one to Robinson in the first meeting back in Week 11). The only running backs to top 15 PPR fantasy points against the Eagles in 2024 have each been greatly aided by their work in the passing game. It is not that Robinson cannot be useful as a receiver, it is just not an avenue Washington has chosen to take with him under OC Kliff Kingsbury. He feels too much like a touchdown-or-bust option this week in a matchup that suggests he could struggle to score.

It was nice to see the Eagles finally take advantage of the fact they have two alpha receivers last week. How much of Smith's 11-109-1 explosion was a product of the Steelers mostly bottling up Saquon Barkley, how much of it was the Eagles picking their spots with Joey Porter Jr. mostly guarding A.J. Brown and how much of it was OC Kellen Moore/Jalen Hurts exploiting an early back injury to Dirty Dozen graduate Donte Jackson is up for debate. Brown will be involved in the offense regardless of who lines up across from him, but he should draw primary coverage this week from Marshon Lattimore, which could open the door for Smith to have another big day. The difference this week is that Barkley should have a much easier time with his job. In other words, it would not surprise me if Smith outperforms Brown in fantasy for a second straight week, but I have my doubts that Smith will come anywhere close to matching last week's production. What was most encouraging about last week's performance from the Eagles is that we saw Philadelphia look like a complete offense for the first time in a long time.

We could be reaching a point where Hubbard is starting to wear down (four straight games with less than four yards per carry), although he does not appear to be running or moving any differently than he did earlier. I choose to believe at least two of his recent performances have more to do with the opponent, as the Chiefs (Week 12) and Eagles (Week 14) are two of the three worst matchups for fantasy running backs this season. Tampa Bay (Week 13) has improved in that regard as well as the season has progressed. The Cowboys should have been a get-right matchup - in terms of Hubbard's efficiency - based on their season-long troubles against the run, but Week 15 marked the third consecutive game in which they held up reasonably well. Unlike many other Carolina games this season, there was no touchdown or goal-line opportunities to save Hubbard last week either. The Cardinals should be the most forgiving run defense the Panthers have faced in over a month. What's more, Arizona has also struggled against running backs of late. Zach Charbonnet has a field day with 38.3 fantasy points versus Arizona in Week 14 (most notably, 22-134-2 on the ground) and Rhamondre Stevenson averaged over five yards per carry behind what is one of the league's worst offensive lines last week. Hubbard will get the volume he needs if Carolina can keep it close, and it says here that the Panthers will do that after laying an egg in my opinion last week.

pipeman: (PPR) I need to decide which two of these four to start: Jonathan Taylor (vs. TEN), Rico Dowdle (vs. TB), Drake London (vs. NYG) and Brian Robinson Jr. (vs. PHI).

The short answer: London and Taylor.

My rationale: I cannot answer this question with much conviction. Taylor has been receiving great volume but lacks PPR upside in an Anthony Richardson-led passing attack. Dowdle has also been seeing great volume has great volume but faces a Tampa Bay run defense that has played reasonably well since Week 9. London will presumably get a quarterback upgrade in Michael Penix Jr. but may not see the kind of volume he became accustomed to during the first two-plus months of the season playing with a quarterback making his first career NFL start. Robinson also should see plenty of volume but has the worst matchup of the bunch. Since I discussed Robinson earlier, I will move on to the others, in part because I do not have a lot of faith in him this week.

The Titans are not a great matchup for running backs either, but I will almost always take a chance on the talent if I have questions about how good the opponent is at stopping what that player does best. The Broncos were a more difficult on-paper matchup for the Colts last week and Taylor was a goal-line "fumble" away from scoring almost 20 fantasy points. (NFL players, please stop thinking it is cool to drop the ball just as you think you are crossing the goal line … it is not worth it.) Tennessee boasts a very good defensive front but is not overly intimidating at linebacker, which should allow Taylor to break some explosive runs. The Titans also do not have a great offense, so it seems unlikely the Colts will be chasing points, which means they can rely more on the ground game.

Dowdle has been running about as hot as any running back over the last three weeks, although I would counter that the Giants, Bengals and Panthers have not presented the Cowboys with much resistance. For all of their relative struggles at bottling up running backs in the first half of the season, the Bucs have been much better at doing that lately. Tampa Bay is still not a run defense I would fear with an elite running back, but Dowdle is not that. Moreover, a Chuma Edoga-Tyler Smith-Cooper Beede-T.J. Bass-Terence Steele front line should not scare the Bucs all that much either. For what it is worth, Tampa Bay has not allowed a touchdown to a running back in three games and only one since Week 9 (a meaningless 1-yard plunge from Devin Singletary with the Bucs leading 30-0 early in the fourth quarter in Week 12).

Despite how poor Kirk Cousins was playing near the end of his time as Atlanta's starting quarterback, London's status as a low-end WR1 never wavered. Even in the Falcons' dreadful Monday Night Football win over the Raiders in Week 15, London caught all three of his targets for 53 yards and a touchdown. With that in mind, it would be reasonable to fade London since there is no way Penix - with his limited experience - can be expected to match what Cousins did when he was at his best this season. Penix also may not have volume working in his favor this week with the Falcons expected to lean on the rushing attack again, but he does not lack for talent. As such, I think it is entirely reasonable to expect Penix for two scores this week. If he does, it seems likely one of them will go to London.

gcmmidwest: Brock Purdy (@MIA), Russell Wilson (vs. BAL) or Matthew Stafford (@NYJ)?

The short answer: Stafford.

My rationale: One of the primary reasons Miami has been the worst matchup for quarterbacks this season is because it has done such a great job of limiting their rushing production (140 yards and no touchdowns despite facing Josh Allen twice, Kyler Murray, Drake Maye and Anthony Richardson). While Purdy does not generate much value with his legs, knowing he has one less avenue toward fantasy production makes this an easier decision. With that in mind, it makes the Dolphins' accomplishment all the more impressive that only five quarterbacks have thrown for multiple scores against Miami. Further consider Purdy has thrown for multiple scores once in the last four games and only twice since Week 6. Last but not least, Purdy has failed to top 159 yards passing in those same three games (only dicing up the Bears for 325 in Week 14).

I cannot imagine being in such a rough spot at quarterback that I would need to consider starting Wilson this week. With George Pickens (hamstring) already ruled out and Wilson having thrown for a total of 286 yards in the previous two games without his alpha receiver, the 36-year-old is not even a floor play in my opinion. He scored 8.3 fantasy points on 36 pass attempts in the first meeting with Baltimore with a healthy Pickens. I shudder to think what might happen this time around with the Ravens playing better pass defense.

Stafford has not exactly been Mr. Consistency and is coming off what was a bad game for just about every player involved in it not named Puka Nacua. Stafford's only other bad game since Nacua and Cooper Kupp returned from injury was in Week 10 against a Miami defense that I just noted has been the worst matchup for quarterbacks this season. In every other game, Stafford has thrown for at least two touchdowns and twice thrown for four. Please understand the Jets are not an easy matchup, but they did just surrender 294 yards passing and 29 yards rushing to Mac Jones. Furthermore, Jones' two interceptions in that game were the first ones the Jets have forced since Week 5. Stafford probably will not match Jones' Week 15 production, but New York appears to have lost whatever edge it once had on defense.

Mike FF Today: (Half PPR) Patrick Taylor (@MIA), Kendre Miller (@GB) or Jerry Jeudy (@CIN)?

The short answer: Miller.

SHAMELESS PLUG ALERT!!! I answered questions similar to this one and many others before Thursday Night Football on the FFPC High-Stakes Fantasy Hour on Dec. 19.

My rationale: Up until the point when the Browns made the fateful decision to name Dorian Thompson-Robinson the starting quarterback for Week 16, Jeudy was likely a top-10 receiver play this week and the easy answer to this question. However, DTR has made three career NFL starts. He has not thrown for more than 165 yards in any of them and produced a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 1:4 in those starts. (You are reading that correctly.) Mind you, all three of those starts came last year without Jeudy on the roster. With that said, Amari Cooper was on the roster and playing at a high level. Jeudy could theoretically be force-fed with David Njoku (hamstring) and Cedric Tillman (concussion) likely to miss another game, but where is the upside? DTR has yet to complete more than 56 percent of his passes in any of the four games in which he has attempted more than 10 passes. The Browns will probably score a touchdown or two just because the Bengals are not great defensively, but that even feels like a stretch. Interestingly, Thompson-Robinson's only significant action this season came against the Bengals in Week 7 (11-of-24 for 82 yards and two interceptions before leaving due to injury). He targeted Jeudy six times in that contest, leading to one catch for 16 yards and an interception. Say what you will about small sample size, but DTR has given us no reason to be optimistic about him or any of his pass-catchers this week.

As I noted during the linked FFPC pod from last night, Taylor is probably pushing the whole "Kyle Shanahan can make any running back a star" narrative. If LT Trent Williams was healthy, I might give Taylor more consideration in fantasy this week. (The splits of how productive San Francisco's offense is with Williams on the field and not on the field during his time in San Francisco are ridiculous.) Taylor is probably better than most team's fifth-string running back, but there is a reason he is where he is on the depth chart. Also, keep in mind no individual rusher has run for more than 43 yards against the Dolphins since Week 10. Last but not least, Dolphins HC Mike Daniel used to serve as Shanahan's run-game coordinator and offensive coordinator. Few coaches are going to understand what Shanahan is trying to accomplish with every play call better than McDaniel.

This brings us to Miller, who appears to be in line for a huge workload with Alvin Kamara likely done for the season with a groin injury he suffered in Week 15. The Saints' skill-position players have been decimated by injury. None of the Week 1 starters in those spots is expected to suit up for this week's Monday Night Football game in Green Bay. Interestingly, the original offensive line is relatively intact. Much like Taylor above, we don't have much NFL film on which to base our lineup decision. Unlike Taylor, Miller's problem has been a lack of durability and not a lack of talent. Miller has never been asked to handle a heavy workload in New Orleans, but the results have typically been quite good when he has been given a chance at a decent workload. In the three career games he has touched the ball at least 10 times, he has done the following:

Week 5 (2023): 12 carries for 37 yards; four catches for 53 yards (11.0 HPPR points)

Week 18 (2023): 13 carries for 73 yards and a touchdown; one catch for six yards (14.4)

Week 14 (2024): 10 carries for 32 yards and a touchdown (9.2)

The Saints' only shot of beating the Packers is limiting the number of times Green Bay has the ball, which means we should expect a heavy dose of the running game. While Miller is not in Kamara's class, it is at least notable that the latter handled at least 20 touches in every game under interim HC Darren Rizzi before getting hurt early last week. The Packers have been a middle-of-the-pack defense against running backs, so Miller's ceiling is probably not very high this week. With that said, Zach Charbonnet scored 13.1 half-PPR fantasy points against Green Bay on half of the volume I expect from Miller this week. Is Miller a dicey start this week? You bet he is. Does he have the ability to bust a long TD run and finish as a top-20 running back this week? Absolutely.

I Sneezed: Has fantasy shifted back to more importance on workhorse RB? I imagine drafts next year will have Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry as 1-2.

My answer: I wanted to include this question because it is only natural at this time of year to think about what we did right, what we did wrong and how we can get better for next season. I don't think the importance of the workhorse running back has ever waned. Running backs - especially those with locked-in volume and/or a huge role in the passing game - will usually possess the most fantasy upside. Drafting running backs such as Barkley, Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson is a great way to start a team because their NFL teams are in positive game scripts so often, maximize their touches and play with a supporting cast or in a scheme that puts them in position to score touchdowns every week. On the downside, the injury risk is always real at the position. That is unlikely to change anytime soon.

I believe the shift that will begin taking place as early as next season is something that seemed to take place in drafts this summer. There are elite options, such as the three I already mentioned along with Christian McCaffrey, Henry, Josh Jacobs and a few others. After that, managers probably need to consider avoiding the middle class. Think about how many running backs in the seventh round or later this season performed like the fourth- or fifth-rounders. Tony Pollard, Chase Brown, Bucky Irving, Chuba Hubbard and Brian Robinson Jr. were among several mid-round backs who performed at roughly the same level or better than Breece Hall, Kenneth Walker or Isiah Pacheco. Then again, some version of this is true every year.

My point is this: I think the importance of grabbing one workhorse running back is as high as it has ever been, but only if injury is the only obstacle standing between him and massive volume. Once I get that player, I will strongly consider avoiding the "middle class" at the running back position altogether. Give me a strong RB1 option who meets the qualifications I set above in the first round or two. After that, I intend to hammer every other position - which includes drafting at least four receivers over the first six rounds in leagues that require three starters at the position - before revisiting running back in the seventh or eighth round. At that point, I think the focus needs to turn from trying to lock up the last remaining starting running backs to the most talented players in muddy backfields and/or the highest-upside handcuffs. Call it Hero RB if you want, but I think it is more about recognizing there are about 6-8 true RB1s most years and a boatload of backs who typically vie for RB2/3 consideration.

For example, there was no question that Chase Brown was a better running back than Zack Moss this summer. What I did not want to do was wait eight weeks for the Bengals to come to the same realization, so I did not end up with him very often. Will we miss on some of our "sleepers" if we don't take our second running back until Round 7 or 8? Absolutely. The hit rate is low in that area. However, the odds of finding next year's version of Hubbard, Brown or Irving increase dramatically if we take four of five shots in Rounds 7-12.

I think I did what I am preaching here this summer, I just did not do it as often as I could have. I just had the best fantasy regular season I have ever had in my 20-plus years of playing fantasy football, so understand what I am saying here. My Big Board served me (and I believe many others) quite well. My plan entering each of my drafts was usually sound as well, as I made the playoffs in 15 of my 18 high-stakes leagues. With that said, there is always room for improvement.


Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.