DraftKings

With DraftKings' Showdown all that remains in DFS this week, I will use the rest of my time to provide my readers with the kind of analysis one should expect in advance of the biggest game of the year. Much as I did in previous years, I included each player's captain and flex prices. (Each position is sorted by my DraftKings' projected point total.)

Key for quarterbacks, running backs, receivers and tight ends:
P Yds - Passing Yards
P TD - Passing Touchdowns
INT - Interceptions
Ru Yds - Rushing Yards
Ru TD - Rushing Touchdowns
Rec Yds - Receiving Yards
Rec TD - Receiving Touchdowns
Rec - Receptions

The good news: the magic is still there. Mahomes set career highs in fourth-quarter comebacks (five) and game-winning drives (seven), which goes a long way in explaining how a team can go 12-0 in one-score games. His last four outings - with a mostly healthy receiving corps (since the return of Marquise Brown) - have resulted in three multi-score efforts and an average of 250 yards passing. For the sake of comparison, Baker Mayfield (Week 4) and Matthew Stafford (Divisional Round) are the only quarterbacks to throw for more than 260 yards versus the Eagles this season. Similarly, Mayfield and Jayden Daniels (Week 16) are the only two signal-callers to account for more than two TDs against Philadelphia.

Philly DC Vic Fangio has made a living at relying on zone coverage that forces offenses to nickel-and-dime their way down the field for most of his NFL career and his 2024 Eagles defense is no exception (it has been described as "death by a thousand cuts" by some), playing zone on about 74 percent of snaps. Mahomes has fared well from a win-loss perspective against Fangio's defenses for his career (8-0), although it is debatable how much the former has dominated that matchup (click on this link for more context). To sum it up, Fangio has given Mahomes trouble despite never having a defense with as much talent as the one he has now. Furthermore, it is slightly troubling that Mahomes has a 9:8 TD-to-INT ratio and 89.6 passer rating against zone coverage this season.

Kansas City's offensive line is more of a strength now than it has been at any point in the Mahomes era. With that said, the Chiefs are in a catch-22 as it relates to where they decide to play LT Joe Thuney. Do they keep him there and risk letting LG Mike Caliendo go one-on-one against Jalen Carter for half of the game? Or do they move Thuney back to his natural position and take their chances with LT D.J. Humphries and RT Jawaan Taylor holding up against Nolan Smith and Josh Sweat? Neither scenario is a great one for Kansas City, although the Chiefs' heavy usage of multiple tight ends would help to lessen the impact Smith and Sweat could have if Thuney moves back inside. Then again, the use of more multiple tight end packages dictates that Kansas City takes at least one of Xavier Worthy, DeAndre Hopkins or Marquise Brown off the field.

Eagles - Contrary to popular belief, Hurts has fared reasonably well against the blitz this season (including playoffs), completing 66.2 percent of his passes while averaging 8.4 yards per pass attempt and posting a 9:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Against pressure, however, Hurts completed only 46 percent of his passes. As one might expect, his fatal flaws show up the most when he is indecisive, which contributed to his league-high pocket-time mark of 2.7 seconds. It also explains why only Caleb Williams (25) took more sacks against the blitz than Hurts (24).

Chiefs DC Steve Spagnuolo's defenses are annually among the league leaders in blitz rate (31.6 percent in 2024, good for fourth during the regular season) and pressure rate (26.1, fifth), so Hurts probably will not have the luxury of holding the ball very long in the Super Bowl. It is also important to note that Hurts has been much better facing man coverage (66.1 completion percentage and a 14:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio on 124 pass attempts) than zone (71.7 completion percentage and a 4:3 TD-to-INT ratio on 290 pass attempts).

Fortunately for Hurts, he has at least three very important things working for him this season. The Eagles have a rushing attack - led by Saquon Barkley - that has proven to be almost impossible to stop despite being the focal point of every defensive coordinator. The offensive line is massive - every starter outside of C Cam Jurgens weighs at least 325 pounds - and can wear out a defensive line by the fourth quarter if the Eagles can put together a couple of extended drives earlier in the game. Last but not least, Hurts' primary pass-catchers (A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert) are all capable of getting open quickly and serving as Philadelphia's primary option in a game.

Philadelphia would be wise to use tempo as a weapon early and often - thus minimizing how often Spagnuolo can get creative - and establish its short passing game on its first two drives to accelerate the Chiefs' fatigue up front. Even the most casual fan knows the Eagles want to run the ball, but it would behoove OC Kellen Moore to wear out the Chiefs' defensive line as quickly as possible. Not only would this theoretically decrease Mahomes' chance of leading a game-winning drive, but it would also make it more likely that Saquon Barkley could break his usual long run or two and do his part to keep Mahomes off the field.

With that said, Kansas City has been using its short passing game as an extension of its running game for some time. It is probably among the main reasons why the Chiefs opted to turn Xavier Worthy into a receiver who was posting an aDOT well over 10 yards on a weekly basis through Week 13 into one who has typically hovered around seven yards since. Even for those believing that 135 rushing yards in the AFC Championship Game was the start of a renaissance, this matchup could not get much worse for the Chiefs. The Eagles ranked right behind Kansas City as the stingiest defense against running backs during the regular season and have held that standard throughout the postseason despite facing Josh Jacobs and Kyren Williams. The Chiefs' offensive line is not on par with the Packers or Rams, so it will likely have to be Mahomes or bust in terms of providing a changeup to the passing attack. If there is one redeeming quality for a Kansas City running back, it might be that Hunt is on a four-game touchdown streak. In two of those outings, he scored on a Houston defense that finished third in the regular season in fewest fantasy points allowed to running backs and was one of seven defenses to surrender eight or fewer TDs to the position.

Eagles - Allow me to address the most common answer to stopping a great running back: loading the box. Kansas City will undoubtedly rely on blitzing or stacking the box to limit Barkley's effectiveness this weekend. In regards to loading the box, opponents did have some success against Barkley when putting eight men in the box, holding him to 3.93 yards per carry on 103 attempts. (Barkley has been much better in those situations during the playoffs, averaging 8.6 YPC on 16 such carries.) The problem with relying on stacking the box is that it can only be an occasional answer to a dominant ground game. Eight men in the box also leaves every pass-catcher in a one-on-one matchup, which is a dangerous way to live against A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert. Making matters worse, Barkley has been exceptional all year running against at least seven in the box, rushing 292 times for 1,632 yards (5.6 YPC) in those situations.

Complicating matters for the Chiefs this week is their struggles against the run this postseason. After finishing the regular season as the stingiest defense against running backs (only two running backs topped 100 total yards and just one ran for more than 74), Kansas City has given up at least 100 total yards and 85 rushing yards to a running back in both of its playoff games. Houston and Buffalo each had their moments establishing the run throughout the season, but neither team is on par with the Eagles as far as rushing success. Many have already touted Spagnuolo's success holding rushing champions in check during Kansas City's Super Bowl run over the last two seasons (Derrick Henry ran for 69 yards on 19 carries in 2019 and Christian McCaffrey settled for 80 yards on 22 attempts), but neither back had the run threat at quarterback or the offensive line than Barkley does. The only two times Barkley has not run for over 100 yards since mid-October were in games where he was removed early because of a blowout (14 carries in Week 9) or Hurts shredded the defense as a passer (Week 15). Stopping this offense - and specifically this rushing attack - will be the biggest challenge Spagnuolo has faced since becoming the defensive coordinator in Kansas City in 2019.

Much like the rest of the Philadelphia defense, the secondary is stout. It says a lot about the Eagles that Darius Slay might be the weakest link at a position that relies heavily on two rookies (Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean). While it is unrealistic to expect a corner to shut down a quality receiver in today's game, Philadelphia simply has not surrendered big games to receivers since DeJean became a full-time player following the team's Week 5 bye. (Puka Nacua and Adam Thielen are the only receivers to top 100 yards receiving. Nacua, Cooper Kupp and Olamide Zaccheaus are the only ones to score at least 20 PPR fantasy points.) The path to success for Kansas City's passing game in the Super Bowl will be to continue doing what they have been doing for most of the season (and what Eagles DC Vic Fangio's defenses allow): repeatedly throw underneath the coverage and trust in their run-after-catch ability. If the Chiefs wear out the defense on short passes and can time their handful of deep shots on the rare occasions the Eagles might be willing to abandon their deep zone, then it is possible Worthy, Brown or Watson could hit big. However, as I noted earlier, there is not a lot of evidence to suggest it will happen.

Eagles - It will come as little surprise that A.J. Brown and Smith are responsible for almost all of the production by Philadelphia receivers this year. Despite playing in only 13 games apiece during the regular season, Brown and Smith accounted for 75 percent of the receptions, 84.4 percent of the receiving yardage and 83 percent of the receiving touchdowns among the Eagles' wideouts. Smith held a slight advantage in production against zone coverage during the regular season, while Brown nearly doubled him up (534-259) when facing man-to-man.

This is where it gets a bit tricky in regards to handicapping this game. Spagnuolo typically uses man coverage more often than most coordinators but will probably rely more heavily on zone coverage this weekend to make sure all 11 defenders have their eyes on Barkley and Hurts. Even if Kansas City did not have to account for the running game as much as it will need to, it seems likely the Chiefs would play more zone than usual to make sure Brown does not beat them deep. If there is a receiver Jalen Hurts will force the ball to in a pinch, it will be Brown. However, part of the reason the Eagles have won every game Hurts has started and finished since their Week 5 bye is that he has thrown only one interception over that span. (He is riding a nine-game streak without an interception.) In short, Hurts has not been forcing throws.

As far as Smith is concerned, he has maximized his opportunities (12 catches on 12 targets) during Philadelphia's three-game postseason run. His biggest problem is that he simply has not been needed very often. In the two regular-season games in which Brown did not play and Smith did, the "Slim Reaper" averaged seven catches for 78 yards. In the nine post-bye games with both players on the field, he scored seven of his eight touchdowns but averaged just 4.7 catches on six targets for 59.4 yards. Betting on Smith in the Super Bowl likely means one of four things happened:

1) Hurts threw the ball more than 30 times;
2) Kansas City relied almost exclusively on zone coverage;
3) Brown missed time due to injury or
4) The Chiefs blew a coverage.

As they suggested in the offseason, the Chiefs used a good chunk of the first half of the regular season to lighten Kelce's load a bit, regularly keeping him in the 77-80 percent range in terms of offensive snaps. He has only played less than 80 percent of the snaps in one game since Week 8 (Divisional Round) and logged a season-high 92 percent of the team's offensive snaps in the AFC title game. It seems painfully obvious that playing time will not be a concern in the Super Bowl, but I mention it only to remind readers of one of several reasons why he was slightly more likely to have a big game over the second half of the season than the first.

In regards to the Super Bowl this weekend, Kelce would not be a great bet to have a big day based on "the matchup" using Philadelphia's regular-season numbers against tight ends. However, Eagles LB Nakobe Dean tore his patellar tendon early in the Wild Card win over the Packers, which has opened up things dramatically for tight ends since:

Wild Card: Tucker Kraft 5-26-0 (five targets)
Divisional: Tyler Higbee 7-54-1 (10), Colby Parkinson 2-9-1 (two)
Conference Championship: Zach Ertz 11-104-0 (16)

Admittedly, some of that production was a result of each opponent being in negative game script. However, negative game script was something many of Philadelphia's opponents faced during the regular season and the Eagles still somehow managed to rank second in the fewest fantasy points allowed to the position. Between Kansas City's likely inability to run the ball and the weakness that Dean's absence has exposed, it would be a shock if Kelce does not have a huge game.

Eagles - Goedert is maddening from a fantasy perspective. It is almost a given at this point he will miss at least four games every season. Assuming A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith stay relatively healthy, he is usually not a great bet for more than five or six targets, which makes him more inconsistent than someone with his talent should be. Yet, it is in part because of that talent that he remains a low-end TE1 consideration every season.

He has been mostly money throughout this postseason, however, because Brown and Smith have been minimized to a large degree (which has, in part, been a function of how rarely Philadelphia has needed either receiver to make a big play). Some of it can also be attributed to the Eagles facing better defenses and those defenses being able to keep one or two of the Big Three playmakers (Barkley, Brown and Smith) from hurting them. Regardless, few teams have a fourth option as good as Goedert. Few teams were worse against the tight end position than the Chiefs were during the regular season. Kansas City will occasionally have to pick its poison in this game, as no defense can keep at least seven in the box to contain Barkley and Hurts AND double team two alpha receivers all game long. The Chiefs should be expected to play more zone than usual (just over 60 percent during the regular season), which should give Goedert ample space over the middle of the field. If Philadelphia's focus is to possess the ball and extend drives (as it should be), the Eagles will be more concerned about picking up first downs than hoping for big plays. That should bode nicely for Goedert and make him a strong candidate to match his production in the NFC Championship (7-85-0).

Key for defense/special teams units:
PA - Points allowed
TD - Defensive/return touchdowns
TO - Total turnovers
PA Bonus - Points allowed bonus for DraftKings

Summary

There is little doubt in my mind that the Eagles have the better team. Usually, that is enough to make a prediction and feel good about it. The problem in this case is that the Chiefs appear to hold the three most important advantages (quarterback, head coach and defensive coordinator). That makes handicapping this Super Bowl much more challenging.

Much of this game will come down to how well Hurts handles the unique pressures and blitzes that Spagnuolo will throw at him. When the Chiefs and Eagles last met in Super Bowl LVII two years ago, Hurts was more than up to the challenge, taking only two sacks despite facing 15 blitzes and feeling pressure on 21.4 percent of his drop-backs. He also had to carry the rushing attack in that game as well, accounting for 70 of the team's 115 yards on the ground. Goedert, Brown and Smith all finished with at least six catches and 60 yards. Hurts should only need to be a complementary piece - as opposed to the featured attraction - to the offense this time around. The two things that the Eagles lacked that day were a defensive mastermind and a bell-cow running back. Needless to say, they have a defensive coordinator on par with Spagnuolo and arguably the best running back in the league. It is also important to remember Philadelphia has not lost a game Hurts started and finished since it committed to being a run-centric offense. Moreover, the Eagles have recorded only seven turnovers in that 16-game span - all of which have come in four contests.

Spagnuolo gives Kansas City more of a chance than it probably deserves in this Super Bowl, if only because his resume is full of examples of getting his defense to rise to the occasion and being aggressive when other defensive play-callers get conservative. Strategically, the Chiefs would be better off if they moved LT Joe Thuney back inside to this natural left guard position. Kansas City's three interior linemen (Thuney, C Creed Humphrey and RG Trey Smith) give the offense a good chance at minimizing the impact DTs Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis might have on this game. While LT D.J. Humphries and RT Jawaan Taylor would likely get exposed occasionally on the edges in that scenario, this is one of those times when their heavy use of multiple tight end packages should come in handy. Trusting fill-in LG Mike Caliendo to handle Carter by himself is a recipe for disaster. Mahomes gets rid of the ball quickly enough to overcome edge pressure, but no quarterback can be expected to be great if he sees interior pressure every other pass play.

If we have learned anything over the years, bettors had better have a good reason to bet against Patrick Mahomes, Steve Spagnuolo and Andy Reid coming off a bye. Much like the Patriots before them, the Chiefs are going to win almost every game that is decided by the team that handles situational football the best. Beating Kansas City requires a team to value the football (i.e. winning the turnover battle) and limit how many times Mahomes has a chance to be great. Philadelphia has a bigger margin for error in this game, although it is debatable how much of a margin for error any team really has on the Chiefs. With that said, the Eagles have a better roster now than they did when they lost Super Bowl LVII two seasons ago and will be the most complete team Kansas City has faced in the Super Bowl during the Mahomes era.

Prediction: Eagles 34, Chiefs 31