While Week 6 appears to be much tamer than Week 5 was in regards
to the level of concern fantasy managers will have setting their
lineups, it does not mean all is well yet either. Whether you want
to use my Big Boards or ADP as the basis, roughly 30 percent of
the players drafted in the first four rounds of many fantasy drafts
either are on IR or have already missed at least one game. Perhaps
the personal observation I made recently that illustrates this the
best is how many fantasy teams are playing two tight ends to fill
out their starting lineups in my leagues this week. In years past,
I rarely saw such a thing. Over the last two weeks, I have had to
do it on occasion and several of my opponents this week appear as
if they have little choice but to do so as well.
Unfortunately, I cannot heal the wounded, nor can I enter Create-A-Player
mode in Madden. What I can do and what I have chosen to do last
week and this week is evaluate the running back landscape after
about a month. Perhaps by briefly (and I do mean briefly) analyzing
each team's situation, we can gain some sort of appreciation for
what each team is offering. Last week, we
analyzed the AFC. This week, we look at the 16 NFC teams.
Before doing that, however, I want to detail the running back
rooms for each team and the roles I expect them to occupy for
the foreseeable future.
Each AFC Team's Running Back Room
and Roles
Tm
RB1
RB2
RB3
Early
3D
2M
LDD
GL
ARI
Trey
Benson
Michael
Carter
Emari
Demercado
Benson/Carter
Demercado
Demercado
Benson
Benson/Carter
ATL
Bijan
Robinson
Tyler
Allgeier
Robinson
Robinson
Robinson
Robinson
Robinson
CAR
Chuba
Hubbard
Rico
Dowdle
Trevor
Etienne
Hubbard
Dowdle
Hubbard
Hubbard
Hubbard
CHI
D'Andre
Swift
Kyle
Monangai
Roschon
Johnson
Swift
Swift
Swift
Swift
Swift
DAL
Javonte
Williams
Miles
Sanders
Jaydon
Blue
Williams
Williams
Williams
Williams
Williams
DET
Jahmyr
Gibbs
David
Montgomery
Sione
Vaki
Gibbs
Gibbs
Gibbs
Gibbs
Split
GB
Josh
Jacobs
Emanuel
Wilson
Chris
Brooks
Jacobs
Jacobs
Jacobs
Jacobs
Jacobs
LAR
Kyren
Williams
Blake
Corum
Jarquez
Hunter
Williams
Williams
Williams
Williams
Williams
MIN
Aaron
Jones
Jordan
Mason
Zavier
Scott
Mason
Jones
Split
Split
Mason
NO
Alvin
Kamara
Kendre
Miller
Devin
Neal
Kamara
Kamara
Kamara
Kamara
Kamara
NYG
Cam
Skattebo
Tyrone
Tracy Jr.
Devin
Singletary
Skattebo
Skattebo
Split
Tracy
Skattebo
PHI
Saquon
Barkley
AJ
Dillon
Will
Shipley
Barkley
Barkley
Barkley
Barkley
Barkley
SEA
Kenneth
Walker
Zach
Charbonnet
George
Holani
Split
Charbonnet
Charbonnet
Split
Charbonnet
SF
Christian
McCaffrey
Brian
Robinson Jr.
Isaac
Guerendo
McCaffrey
McCaffrey
McCaffrey
McCaffrey
McCaffrey
TB
Bucky
Irving
Rachaad
White
Sean
Tucker
Irving
White
Irving
Irving
Irving
WAS
J.
Croskey-Merritt
Chris
Rodriguez
Jeremy
McNichols
JCM
McNichols
McNichols
Split
Split
Key:
Early - Early down work
3D - Third down
2M - Two-minute drill
LDD - Long down and distance
GL - Goal line/short yardage
* - My projection given a recent injury
Arizona Cardinals
With James Conner (foot) done for the season and Trey Benson
(knee) on IR, one of the biggest questions entering last week
was whether Emari Demercado or Michael Carter was the back to
own in fantasy. The answer proved to be Carter by a landslide,
as Carter finished Week 5 with a 39-19 edge in snaps and a 17-0
advantage in routes run. This would seem to be great news for
Benson when he returns, as it further supports the argument that
his Week 4 usage may have been more about his injury than a preset
designation or desire from Arizona's coaching staff to use Demercado
in the role Benson held when Conner was healthy.
Let's be honest about one thing, however. With upcoming games
against the Colts and Packers, there may not be much upside to
be had from this backfield. This development also sets up nicely
for Benson, as the Cardinals' braintrust should not be overly
tempted to use Carter and/or Demercado all that much once Benson
returns if they struggle for the rest of the month.
Atlanta Falcons
Bijan Robinson is the man for every role and every situation
in this offense. If you feel confident in your ability to predict
when Atlanta will win and/or feel like it can pound its opponent
into submission on the ground, then fire up Tyler Allgeier as
a flex. With double-digit carries in three of four, you could
do much worse than Allgeier in a pinch.
Carolina Panthers
Chuba Hubbard (calf) missed Week 5 and appears unlikely to suit
up in Week 6. Rico Dowdle famously took advantage of his opportunity
against the Dolphins, out-snapping Trevor Etienne 35-14 en route
to a ridiculous 206-yard rushing day versus the Dolphins. Prior
to that, Hubbard handled 53 carries and ran 95 routes compared
to 28 and 43, respectively, for Dowdle. My impression all along
has been that Dowdle was signed to be the one-year replacement
for Jonathon Brooks with an eye on having him handle AT LEAST
a third of the backfield work. Another big day from Dowdle in
Week 6 could force HC Dave Canales to change the math a little
bit, but I have my doubts that the Panthers will change their
initial plan and move to more of a split committee based on the
results of a couple of games.
Chicago Bears
It is not working with D'Andre
Swift. There are multiple reasons why this is happening, but
he is performing worse now than he was behind a dreadful offensive
line and in a worse offensive environment last year. HC Ben Johnson
will have to think long and hard about relegating Swift to passing-down
work and seeing if rookie Kyle
Monangai can do better on early downs during the team's bye
week.
Dallas Cowboys
We have a bell-cow here. Dallas running backs have rushed 104
times and attracted 30 targets. Javonte Williams is responsible
for 76 percent of the carries and 67 percent of the targets. Move
along.
Detroit Lions
No backfield has attempted more runs than Detroit (136). While
that means there is enough for both Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery
to thrive, the Lions are clearly beginning to lean more heavily
on Gibbs than they had in years past. Gibbs is handling 51 percent
of the backfield's carries and responsible for 77 percent of its
30 targets.
Green Bay Packers
It is hard to find much fault with what Josh Jacobs is doing
in fantasy, but his volume and four touchdowns are covering up
what has been a horribly inefficient start for him. MarShawn Lloyd
is due to come off IR at any point as he completes his recovery
from a preseason hamstring injury. He has burst that Jacobs does
not. What he has lacked this far in his NFL career is Jacobs'
durability.
With that said, Lloyd might also be losing his chance to secure
the No. 2 role with Emanuel Wilson running well. Wilson's season-high
eight carries in Week 4 were probably more a product of Green
attempting 35 runs and calling 79 plays in an overtime affair.
Wilson is not overtaking Jacobs, but the Packers have to be asking
the question as to why Jacobs has yet to average four yards per
carry in any game while Wilson has done so in every game. Part
of the reason: Jacobs' yards after contact per attempt is at 2.98
- a full half-yard behind last year's mark.
Los Angeles Rams
Much had been made about Blake Corum's increased usage through
four weeks. It remains to be seen if that will continue after
he was effectively benched in Week 5 following a botched toss
play (the fumble was charged to Matthew Stafford because Corum
never had control of the ball, although the coaching staff obviously
had a different idea where the blame should be placed). Regardless,
Williams has a firm grasp on this backfield, owning a 77 percent
carry share and 75 percent target share. The great thing for Williams'
managers is that he has at least 16 touches in every game and
at least 19 in four of five. An even better development for the
same managers is Williams' 14 total targets (11 catches) over
the last two contests, including eight in Week 5.
Minnesota Vikings
It is difficult to draw many solid conclusions about Minnesota
through five weeks. Aaron Jones (hamstring) was lost in Week 2,
as was J.J. McCarthy. Jordan Addison just returned from suspension
two weeks ago. The offensive line that was supposed to be a strength
just had its first full game with stud LT Christian Darrisaw in
Week 4. Only RG Will Fries has played every snap. The next closest
is backup tackle Justin Skule, who replaced Darrisaw in Weeks
1 and 2 and RT Brian O'Neill (sprained MCL) for most of Week 4
and all of Week 5. C Ryan Kelly suffered at least the fifth documented
concussion of his career in Week 4 and missed Week 5. The quarterback
play has been uneven at best and the defense is far from the juggernaut
it was at times in 2024.
The one thing that has played out so far and we can probably
count on moving forward is Jordan Mason being the primary early-down
back. He might not start each game once Aaron Jones returns, but
he has led the team in carries by a fairly wide margin each week.
New Orleans Saints
Kendre Miller told NewOrleans.Football after the team's Week
4 loss to the Bills that the Saints switched up their run scheme,
which focused on more zone runs than usual. The biggest change
might have been how involved he was. Prior to Week 4, Alvin Kamara
handled 50 of the backfield's 69 rush attempts (72 percent) and
earned 10 of its 13 targets (77 percent).
While I am not skeptical of Miller's talent, I am skeptical of
the likelihood of New Orleans running the ball 34 times again
anytime soon, including 26 from the running backs. The Saints
averaged 26.3 rush attempts as a team in their first three games.
Week 4 felt very much like an opponent-specific plan, especially
since running backs averaged nearly six yards per carry against
Buffalo in the Bills' first three games. In Week 5 versus the
Giants, the duo combined for only 18 carries. What did not change
was the split backfield approach. Miller saw 10 carries to Kamara's
eight, while Kamara earned six targets compared to Miller's one.
Kamara ran a season-low 19 routes, while Miller ran a season-high
nine.
Kamara has not been an efficient back for several years, but
the one thing he did have working in his favor was volume - both
as a rusher and a receiver. That appears to be gone as well. Perhaps
a Week 7 game against the Bears presents a sell-high window for
fantasy managers, but it appears for now as if Kamara is either
being preserved so he can be traded at the deadline or the coaching
staff believes Miller offers more as a runner.
New York Giants *
This backfield was one that was a bit messy to begin the season,
although it does not appear that way now. In the Giants' first
full game without Tyrone Tracy in Week 4, New York still ran 42
times. Of that total, 32 were handled by running backs. Of that
32, 25 went to Cam Skattebo (78 percent). The only two targets
to running backs were Skattebo's as well.
Unsurprisingly, New York was unable to play the ball-control
game two weeks in a row en route to a Week 5 loss against the
Saints. The Giants ran 29 times, but only 15 (52 percent) of them
were handled by Skattebo. The rookie maintained his target dominance,
however, earning seven of the nine by the backfield.
ESPN.com's Jordan Raanan opined on Thursday (Oct. 9) that Skattebo
is the team's "future and present at running back."
How long he can run with the physicality that he does is another
story, but it appears HC Brian Daboll and his staff believe they
have found a back they are willing to feature.
Philadelphia Eagles *
While Saquon Barkley's numbers have disappointed so far, his
workload has not. He has handled 85 percent of the backfield's
98 carries and 86 percent of its 22 targets.
San Francisco 49ers
Everything you need to know about McCaffrey's usage can mostly
be summed up with one number: 442. That is CMC's current 17-game
touch pace. This obviously will not continue, but it is wonderful
to see that one of the great all-purpose backs in recent memory
is getting at least one more chance to prove he has been more
unlucky than brittle in recent years. The efficiency (and the
rushing touchdowns, most likely) will improve as the 49ers' supporting
cast (specifically TE George Kittle) starts coming back.
Seattle Seahawks
For better or worse, Seattle has seemingly settled on Zach Charbonnet
handling about 10 touches per week as a way to keep Kenneth Walker
healthy. Initially, the good news for Walker enthusiasts was that
his touches increased each week (13, 14, 17, 20). Unfortunately,
he settled for a season-low 11 in the team's Week 5 loss to the
Bucs.
If there is good news moving forward, it might be that HC Mike
Macdonald and OC Klint Kubiak want to run the ball as much as
possible. During Seattle's recent three-game winning streak, the
Seahawks' backfield for 28, 31 and 31 carries, respectively. The
only problem is that the Seahawks have yet to give their running
backs more than three targets in a game collectively.
We will probably need another game or two to make any definitive
conclusions about the two backs' roles. Charbonnet appears to
have the money roles (third-down back and goal-line specialist),
but there has been just enough chaos and not enough of a sample
size to know for sure. What we do know for now is that Kubiak
has little intention to use his running backs very often in the
passing game. With Seattle's defense being as good as it is, Walker
and Charbonnet probably will not get many opportunities to pick
up easy fantasy points in negative game script.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Through four weeks, Bucky Irving had reached workhorse status,
handling 75 percent of the backfield's 95 carries and 68 percent
of its 28 targets. Unfortunately, Irving is battling a foot sprain
and shoulder subluxation that kept him out in Week 5 against the
Seahawks and will likely sideline him for Week 6. In his absence
in Week 5, Rachaad White enjoyed a 14-3 edge in rush attempts
and a 49-13 advantage in snaps over Sean Tucker. White handled
anything close to the goal line as well. Despite the coaching
staff's repeated declarations that Tucker is more than capable
of being the starting NFL running back, the Bucs continue to treat
him like a true backup.
Washington Commanders
For the first time all season, a Washington running back exceeded
11 carries in a game in Week 5 - a figure that is stunning when
you consider Jacory Croskey-Merritt is averaging a 2023 De'Von
Achane-like 6.6 yards per carry. There has been some recent speculation
that JCM was not handling the kind of workload he did in Week
5 (14 of the backfield's 20 carries and two of its three targets)
because Jayden Daniels was sidelined the previous two weeks. With
Daniels back, the Commanders were apparently compelled to drop
the guise of a committee.
Before fantasy managers go overboard and declare Croskey-Merritt
the next big thing, they should remember OC Kliff Kingsbury was
supposedly committed to Brian Robinson Jr. last year and still
struggled to get him to 15 carries regularly. Croskey-Merritt
and Robinson are admittedly much different runners, but we should
also remember that Kingsbury has a history of not relying too
heavily on one runner when he easily could have done so (James Conner). Fortunately, JCM has already shown he can get a lot done
on limited work, so fantasy managers should be thrilled if he
is entrusted with the same kind of workload moving forward that
he received in Week 5. The fact of the matter is Chris Rodriguez
and Jeremy McNichols have no business taking much work from him.
* - Does not include Thursday Night Football Week 6 (Eagles
@ Giants)
Doug Orth has served as an analyst
for FF Today since 2006 and joined the Fantasy Points team before
the start of the 2024 season. He is also a highly successful high-stakes
player who has not experienced a losing money season in any of his
25 years in this hobby.