You’re on the clock. The running back you like is available,
but he’s on a losing team which frequently plays from behind.
What do you do?
Check the chart below!
If he’s near the top of the list, don’t worry and
choose him with confidence because he’s a very good producer
even when his team is behind on the scoreboard by a touchdown-or-more.
Austin Ekeler’s Los Angeles Chargers are behind? Not a
problem. Last season over 12 of his fantasy points in a game were
produced when they were losing. But you knew that and I didn’t
research this chart to tell you Ekeler is a great pick. Or Christian McCaffrey.
This list gets much more interesting the further down the chart
you go.
It is why - where Dalvin Cook lands could be a big factor. Also,
Leonard Fournette. But what if Cook or Fournette sign with New
England? How much would their pass-catching ability take away
from Rhamondre Stevenson? Or Breece Hall if one signs with the
Jets?
You wouldn’t think Derrick
Henry would be good when the Titans are behind by a touchdown,
but judging by his production, Tennessee gives him the ball no
matter what the score. And why not? He’s their best player and
he’s capable of taking it to the house from anywhere on the field.
He produced better than Alvin
Kamara, Travis
Etienne and Najee
Harris.
Now let’s look at Harris. If you think Harris will ever
produce as he did in his rookie year… think again. He’s
not going to see 381 touches ever again. Not because he can’t,
but because the team will limit his touches. Jaylen Warren was
used more and more as the season progressed in 2022. He out-targeted
Harris in four of the final eight games. He averaged a respectable
4.9 yards per carry and much of his production was when the Steelers
were behind (5.43 FPts/G). Warren’s solid 2022 resume will
limit Harris’ ceiling in 2023.
Miles Sanders’
Eagles didn’t play from behind much last season… as you would
expect on a 13-4 team. But Sanders isn’t in Philadelphia in 2023,
he’s in Carolina. The Panthers were 7-10 despite residing in the
weak NFC South. They will be starting a rookie quarterback (Bryce
Young). Their defense ranked 19th of 32 last season allowing
22 PPG. Sanders didn’t catch a single pass when the Eagles were
behind and he hasn’t caught more than 28 balls since 2019. Over
that span his drop percentage was an ugly 8.9%. It’s more than
possible that he’ll be pulled in passing situations and it’s pretty
hard to score points from the sidelines. I’m discounting Sanders.
The Seahawks’ Kenneth Walker is another starting running
back with issues when his team is behind. Perhaps that’s
why Seattle used a surprising second-round draft pick (No.21 overall)
on UCLA’s Zach Charbonnet. Walker caught just 12 passes
when the Seahawks were playing catchup and it’s not like
Rachaad Penny was taking looks from him. Charbonnet saw 61 catches
for over 500 yards in his last two college seasons and should
be on the field a lot if the Seahawks are behind and that’s
a good reason to reduce your Walker expectations.
Here’s another interesting tidbit. Do with it what you
will.
Tony Pollard produced 39 receptions for 371 yards and three scores
in 2022, so we know he can catch. But just eight of those catches
were when his team was behind by a touchdown-or-more (for 56 yards).
His quarterbacks, Dak Prescott and Cooper Rush, preferred wide
receivers and tight ends when behind… not “check downs.”
Dallas’ passing distribution when down by a touchdown –
wideouts 66.3%, tight ends 20.2% and running backs just 13.5%.
In the off-season, the Cowboys improved their wide receiver room.
