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Home Cookin' vs. Road Warrior



By Steve Schwarz | 8/31/23

Unless you drafted a “plug and play” quarterback like; Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts or Joe Burrow, you might have a question whether to start a quarterback from time to time.

Perhaps you have two solid quarterbacks and go back and forth depending on the matchup. Who in their right mind would want his quarterback going up against the San Francisco 49ers stingy defense? Or the Jets tough cornerback duo of Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed? Or the Eagles sack-happy defense?

Additionally, there is always the road game versus home game discussion. Most of the time, the edge favors starting the guy in front of his home fans. But not always. And it’s very important to know where the exceptions lie.

Below are the home and road splits from last season for most of this year’s starting quarterbacks.

(Note: Five starters are missing from the list; the three rookies and two with too small a sample size Jordan Love and Sam Howell. Also, there are two Arizona starters because Kyler Murray could miss have the season).

I’d like to point out a few significant findings.

Jared Goff

1) The Lions’ Jared Goff played elite quarterback at home (league-high 109.3 rating) with a dynamic 23-3 TD-INT ratio, but on the road he ranked in the bottom half of the league and over eight games managed just six touchdown passes. A solid backup would be a better option when the Lions aren’t playing at Ford Field.

2) Jimmy Garoppolo, now in Las Vegas, was the opposite of Goff. He was better on the road than at home throwing for 50 more yards a game in six road contests and 11 touchdowns versus five in five games at home.

3) Matthew Stafford was less than mediocre at home with as many INTs and touchdown passes (7). It might have been a fluke, or he might be showing all the years of wear and tear and hits. Beware here.

4) Justin Herbert was better on the road than he was in front of the home crowd (maybe they were still Rams fans in the stands and not Charger fans since they share a stadium). He ranked just 18th at SoFi Stadium and ninth on the road with a 95.3 rating and a 14-4 TD-INT ratio.

5) Also better on the road than at home was last year’s surprise top-10 fantasy quarterback Geno Smith. He raised his QB Rating 12 points on the road. Smith also threw just as many touchdown passes both home and away (15) with one less interception and an average 25 more yards on the road.

6) Meanwhile, Josh Allen was disappointing on the road with a QB rating 16.7 points lower, though his 15 touchdown passes and six rushing touchdowns more than made up for his eight interceptions.

7) Another visiting quarterback you might want to stay away from is the Vikings’ Kirk Cousins. Eleven touchdown passes were countered with 10 INTs away from U.S. Bank Stadium. Plus, it doesn’t help that he rarely adds value with his legs.

8) Oh, and you might want to fade Aaron Rodgers on the road. He was horrible in 2022. He averaged a miniscule 212.3 ypg through the air with 11 touchdowns against nine picks. Or… do you need to fade him in every game not at Lambeau Field? With a new team and new receiving corps, this statistic might not be relevant. Never mind, not all statistics are relevant.

9) Lamar Jackson was a better fantasy option on the road than at home. He threw for 48.3 more yards and more touchdowns (12-5) away from M&T Bank Stadium.

10) Just don’t draft or start Baker Mayfield. He wasn’t good at home or on the road. Getting to throw to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin might make him moderately better, but he’s never helped any receiver be elite, or even top-20. Jarvis Landry in 2019 (83-1174-6), was the best he’s ever produced, ranking 21st that season at 12.7 FPts/G.

 QBs @ Home
Rk Player Tm Att Comp % On Tar % Yds/G QB Rat TDs INTs
1 Jared Goff DET 319 65.8 70.2 274.7 109.3 23 3
2 Brock Purdy SF 109 68.8 71.2 174.6 108.8 9 3
3 Josh Allen BUF 262 63.4 71.2 273.9 105.6 20 6
4 Jalen Hurts PHI 237 66.7 80.8 239.3 103.9 14 4
5 Tua Tagovailoa MIA 179 67.0 75.1 268.5 103.4 8 3
6 Joe Burrow CIN 260 68.1 77.5 293.1 100.4 13 5
7 Patrick Mahomes KC 333 65.8 73.5 314.3 99.9 19 6
8 Desmond Ridder ATL 56 67.9 75.0 196.5 99.8 2 0
9 Aaron Rodgers NYJ 280 65.4 72.2 221.9 99.7 15 3
10 Kirk Cousins MIN 347 67.4 77.4 266.8 99.6 18 4
11 J. Garoppolo LV 154 65.6 67.3 202.3 97.7 5 1
12 Geno Smith SEA 314 68.2 75.5 239.4 95.4 15 6
13 Ryan Tannehill TEN 188 62.8 79.5 243.7 94.8 7 2
14 Daniel Jones NYG 254 67.3 81.1 188.9 94.3 10 3
15 Derek Carr NO 206 61.7 75.0 235.0 94.1 10 2
16 Dak Prescott DAL 215 67.9 80.6 236.1 93.8 12 8
17 Trevor Lawrence JAC 293 65.2 76.9 256.3 92.1 12 5
18 Justin Herbert LAC 338 68.6 79.3 284.9 90.8 11 6
19 Kyler Murray ARI 228 66.2 80.7 190.9 89.7 8 2
20 Mac Jones NE 197 66.5 76.5 195.1 88.1 6 4
21 Matthew Stafford LAR 185 71.4 75.3 252.0 86.8 7 7
22 Lamar Jackson BAL 143 67.1 71.8 162.7 86.5 5 4
23 Justin Fields CHI 178 60.7 66.5 154.0 85.7 11 7
24 Russell Wilson DEN 194 59.3 73.9 242.3 84.0 7 5
25 Baker Mayfield TB 187 62.0 74.0 212.8 84.0 6 4
26 Kenny Pickett PIT 172 59.9 76.5 155.7 76.5 4 4
27 Colt McCoy ARI 74 68.9 73.6 232.0 74.4 0 2
28 Deshaun Watson CLE 59 55.9 75.0 148.0 68.2 1 1

 QBs on the Road
Rk Player Tm Att Comp % On Tar % Yds/G QB Rat TDs INTs
1 Patrick Mahomes KC 315 68.6 80.2 304.0 110.8 22 6
2 Jimmy Garoppolo LV 154 68.8 77.2 244.6 108.2 11 3
3 Geno Smith SEA 258 71.7 81.2 265.9 107.5 15 5
4 Tua Tagovailoa MIA 221 62.9 71.4 276.7 107.2 17 5
5 Brock Purdy SF 61 63.9 74.1 250.5 104.6 4 1
6 Joe Burrow CIN 346 68.5 80.9 269.2 101.1 22 7
7 Jalen Hurts PHI 223 66.4 76.4 255.3 99.0 8 2
8 Trevor Lawrence JAC 291 67.4 79.5 229.2 98.3 13 3
9 Justin Herbert LAC 361 67.9 74.2 273.3 95.3 14 4
10 Lamar Jackson BAL 183 58.5 66.9 211.0 94.7 12 3
11 Ryan Tannehill TEN 137 68.6 80.5 179.0 94.4 6 4
12 Daniel Jones NYG 218 67.0 77.9 215.0 90.5 5 2
13 Josh Allen BUF 305 63.3 75.2 261.5 88.9 15 8
14 Matthew Stafford LAR 118 62.7 69.8 206.8 88.5 3 1
15 Dak Prescott DAL 179 64.2 74.3 241.4 87.9 11 7
16 Jared Goff DET 268 64.2 73.9 245.8 87.4 6 4
17 Deshaun Watson CLE 111 59.5 71.1 201.5 84.9 6 4
18 Russell Wilson DEN 289 61.2 70.3 230.0 84.7 9 6
19 Justin Fields CHI 140 60.0 65.6 144.3 84.5 6 4
20 Kirk Cousins MIN 296 64.2 79.7 268.3 84.1 11 10
21 Kyler Murray ARI 162 66.7 79.6 258.0 83.7 6 5
22 Mac Jones NE 245 64.1 75.7 233.0 82.2 8 7
23 Aaron Rodgers NYJ 262 63.7 76.6 212.3 81.9 11 9
24 Derek Carr NO 296 60.1 73.0 234.7 80.8 14 12
25 Colt McCoy ARI 58 67.2 75.5 158.0 79.4 1 1
26 Kenny Pickett PIT 217 65.4 79.0 219.0 76.9 3 5
27 Desmond Ridder ATL 59 59.3 78.6 157.5 73.8 0 0
28 Baker Mayfield TB 148 57.4 66.4 147.7 72.6 4 4

 





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