Drew Brees threw for 380 yards and three touchdowns in his first
game back from the thumb injury, proving that the brace on his
injured right thumb would not limit his ability to make throws
and pick apart a bad pass defense like the Cardinals. Brees now
has an even better matchup at home against a Falcons defense that
is decimated once again by injuries and gives up the 5th-most
points to quarterbacks.
Murray has to be licking his chops when he watches the video
of the Tampa Bay secondary. Only the Bengals and his own defense
give up more fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. This game
has the makings of a shootout, and I want as much action as I
can get in GPP. Kyler had been in a funk with two bad games against
the Saints and the Giants before bouncing back with two touchdowns
against San Francisco last week. I anticipate he will continue
to produce excellent fantasy numbers, with a chance of posting
a career-high in point this week at Tampa.
This call is based on snowy weather conditions in Green Bay,
along with the fact that the Panthers give up the 5th-most points
to running backs. The Packers will run early and often, with Aaron
Jones having a big game and Aaron Rodgers delivering an ok, but
not stellar fantasy performance.
I recommend playing Jones for the same reason why I am fading
Aaron Rodgers. It is going to be a cold, snowy day in Green Bay
on Sunday afternoon, and the Packers are going to take advantage
of the fact that the Panthers have allowed the most rushing touchdowns
to running backs by running the ball early and often, especially
in the red zone. Jones burned owners last week with a dud against
the Chargers, and I look for him to bounce back strong this week
in an above-average home matchup against Carolina.
Montgomery has back-to-back 20-point fantasy weeks and should
post another monster game against a Lions defense that simply
cannot stop the run. If Matt Nagy is smart, he will give the ball
to Montgomery at least 25 times in this game, with the goal of
limiting the number of possessions for Matthew Stafford and the
number of throws his own quarterback needs to make.
As an owner of Gurley in season-long leagues, it pains me to say
this, but he is not the player he once was, and he should be avoided
in this matchup. Pittsburgh gives up the 5th-fewest points to
running backs, and for some reason, Sean McVay has not gotten
Gurley involved in the passing game this year.
With 45 targets in his previous three games and back to back
monster performances, you have to continue to ride Evans in DFS.
I don’t buy into the narrative that Patrick Peterson will shut
him down. Just ask Michael Thomas what he thought of Peterson
last week when he went off for 11/112/1. I anticipate this will
be a floor for Evans, with 150/2 as a possible ceiling.
It is tough to run on the Bucs and beyond easy to beat Tampa
Bay in the air. I plan on playing Kyler Murray in GPP and pairing
him with the wide receiver on the Cardinals who I anticipate has
the best upside. Larry Fitzgerald has the higher floor, but Kirk
has a higher ceiling in what could be his breakout game.
The targets were there for Adams in his return from turf toe,
but the production did not follow, and Adams did not look like
his old self. I am one of the biggest Adams apologists, but I
think this game script, along with the weather, is going to limit
his production this week against the Panthers.
The tight end position not attractive this week for players not
willing to pay the premium for Travis Kelce. If you plan on punting
the position as I do, I recommend targeting someone like Doyle,
who has a nice matchup at home with the floor of around four targets
for 40 yards. Hopefully, Doyle reaches pay dirt like he did last
week against the Steelers.
Other options to consider - Travis
Kelce vs. Tennessee
I like Hockenson for two reasons. First, he is coming off a week
with seven targets against Oakland, and it is difficult to pass
to wide receivers when taking on the Bears. I am not very bullish
on any tight ends this week, but I think the rookie has a chance
to score this week in Chicago.
Other options to consider - Jared
Cook vs. Atlanta
The temptation is there. It get it. The Cardinals give up the
most points to tight ends, and Howard can be a beast at times.
But he can just as easily goose you and ruin your week.
Defense & Special Teams
High Priced Option Worthy of the Cost: Ravens
($4,000) @ Cincinnati
Well Priced with Upside: Colts ($3,500) vs.
Dolphins
