Aaron Jones scored as many touchdowns in
2019 as Leonard Fournette has in his entire career (19).
2019 was not friendly to owners who used a first-round draft pick
on a running back. David
Johnson, Alvin
Kamara, James
Conner, Le’Veon
Bell, all failed to provide RB1 fantasy production while running
backs taken in the second, third, and beyond stepped up and joined
the elite RB1 club.
Derrick Henry and Aaron Jones proved to be league winning running
backs for owners who were lucky enough to add them in after their
respective ADP’s of 36 and 28, while Austin Ekeler took
advantage of Melvin Gordon’s holdout and mediocre production
to finish as the No.10 RB on the season.
Who will be the first round busts this year, and who will be
the value picks to emerge as RB1s? Only time will tell, and we
are way too early in the process with free agency and the draft
still down the road.
For those owners out there jonesing for some way too early fantasy
rankings, here are my top 12 running backs if I were drafting
today.
No surprise here. McCaffrey followed up his third-place 2018
performance with a fantasy season for the ages. He posted 2,392
total yards and 19 touchdowns while adding an impressive 118 receptions
on 143 targets. CMC lapped the field, even with Derrick Henry
and Aaron Jones delivering breakout seasons. Don’t overthink this
one. CMC is the clear RB1 again in 2020.
Zeke quietly had a solid season with 1357 rushing yards and 12
touchdowns. Although he did see a drop in his receptions from
77 to 54, he did still provide enough in the air to make him a
top-five running back. I like the move to McCarthy at head coach,
and I think the Cowboys offense as a whole is going to be one
of the best in the league. Some may have Barkley here, but I’d
rather have the safer play in the better offense.
Even with a rookie quarterback and a high ankle sprain that limited
him to just 13 games, Barkley proved he is a fantasy force with
1451 total yards and eight touchdowns. His average points per
game did fall a bit from 18.3 to 14.8, but I believe that can
be attributed to the injury, Daniel Jones, and the offense struggling.
I see a bounce back for Barkley and a top-three finish in 2020.
Yes, Henry did trail only CMC in fantasy points per game, while
improving his yard per carry average to over 5.0 for the first
time in his career. Henry keeps trending in the right direction
and looks poised to be a monster again in 2020, assuming he signs
with the Titans, and they give him over 300 carries again.
Cook looked to be the steal of the draft with 100 yards and a
least one touchdown in his first three games. While he did end
up with his first 1000-yard season and double-digit touchdowns,
he still managed to play in only 14 games and is still looking
to shed the injury-prone tag. If he can stay healthy, the sky
is the limit for Cook, and he has the talent to be the RB1.
To put Aaron Jones’ third-year breakout season in perspective,
consider this: he scored as many total touchdowns in 2019 as Leonard
Fournette has in his entire career (19). The Packers know what
they have in Jones, and they will continue to ride their horse
with Aaron Rodgers and the passing game taking somewhat of a back
seat.
Kamara burned fantasy owners last season to the tune of 797 rushing
yards and only six total touchdowns. His 81 receptions helped
ease the pain in full PPR formats, but it is safe to say he did
not live up to his top-4 ADP. With Brees back again and the Saints
offense still projected to be a top-10 unit, Kamara is still worthy
of a selection in the back end of the first round.
Only Derrick Henry rushed for more yards last season than Nick
Chubb, and Chubb made the most of an otherwise dreadful 2019 season
for the Browns with eight rushing touchdowns and 1772 total yards.
If the knuckle-head, Kareem Hunt, continues to make bad decisions
and gets booted from the team, Chubb could be one of the steals
of the draft at the end of the first round.
To say Mixon started slowly would be a gross understatement.
He posted five single-digit games in his first seven, including
1.7 points to start the year against Seattle. His finish to the
season was a whole different story, with at least 136 rushing
yards in three of his last four. I like that the Bengals are drafting
Burrow, and hopefully, the offensive line can stay healthy.
Jacobs lived up to his first-round NFL Draft stock with 1150
yards and seven touchdowns in just 13 games. Jacobs averaged nearly
five yards per carry, saw at least 20 rushes in half of his games,
and posted three multi-score games. The Raiders love him and will
get him the ball - fantasy owners should love him as well.
The good news for Fournette is he became a focal point of both
the running and passing game for the Jags in 2019, with 265 rushes
and a team-high 76 receptions. The bad news is that even with
all of that volume, he still finished outside RB1 status in points
per game because he managed just three touchdowns. Is positive
touchdown regression in his future?
I wanted to put Chris Carson here over Gurley, but Carson’s
injuries make me nervous, and I anticipate the Seahawks will pass
a bit more in 2020. With regards to Gurley, he did finish as the
No.12 RB in large part because of his 14 total touchdowns making
up for the worst rushing total of his career. I want to avoid
Gurley if possible, but if the team makes the adjustment and improves
their offensive line, Gurley could be a great value.
