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 Rankings/Projections > Dynasty Rankings  
Updated: 3/5/2021
Doug Orth | Archive | Email |

My offseason view on dynasty rankings is significantly different than it is during the season. For starters, my main focus in the offseason is loading up on as much proven young talent as possible. During the season, I am more concerned about what I already have on my roster and making the subtle moves necessary in order to secure a championship.

In short, potential takes on a much more significant part of dynasty rankings in the offseason than usual. Free agency reshuffles the deck every year and can allow a second-string player to emerge as the more established veteran either chases a bigger paycheck, a Super Bowl ring or both. The draft introduces a number of new variables into the fantasy equation but can also knock a few of the veterans near the bottom of the rankings off the charts completely.

Based on the turnover rate in the NFL each year (roughly 25 percent), it seems foolish to assign much weight to anything more than three years at any position simply because the odds suggest that three-fourths of the players in these rankings will be insignificant at the end of the 2023 season.

At any rate, here are the main criteria I have chosen to take into consideration while ranking quarterbacks.

Considerations for QB
  • Talent
  • Four years of solid (or better) production remaining
  • Age
  • Age/skill of supporting cast
  • Durability
  • Proven consistency
  • Coaching/scheme stability/situation
These rankings are for PPR leagues, where each touchdown is worth six points. I will release my next set of rankings after the NFL Draft. I will then update the rankings before the start of the 2021 regular season and again midway through the season.
Upside = Upside   Risk = Risk
Chg Rank Player Tm Age
  1 Patrick Mahomes KC 25
  2 Josh Allen BUF 24
  3 Kyler Murray ARI 23
  4 Deshaun Watson HOU 25
  5 Lamar Jackson BAL 24
  6 Justin Herbert LAC 23
  7 Dak Prescott FA 27
Tier 2
  8 Russell Wilson SEA 32
  9 Joe Burrow CIN 24
  10 Aaron Rodgers GB 37
  11 Matthew Stafford LAR 33
  12 Tua Tagovailoa MIA 23
  13 Ryan Tannehill TEN 32
Tier 3
  14 Jalen Hurts PHI 22
  15 Baker Mayfield CLE 26
  16 Carson Wentz IND 28
  17 Kirk Cousins MIN 32
  18 Derek Carr LV 30
  19 Tom Brady TB 43
  20 Matt Ryan ATL 35
Tier 4
  21 Sam Darnold NYJ 23
  22 Daniel Jones NYG 23
  23 Taysom Hill NO 30
  24 Jimmy Garoppolo SF 29
  25 Jared Goff DET 26
  26 Drew Lock DEN 25
Tier 5
  27 Jameis Winston FA 27
  28 Jordan Love GB 22
  29 Cam Newton FA 31
  30 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 39
  31 Taylor Heinicke WAS 28
  32 Teddy Bridgewater CAR 28
  33 Mitchell Trubisky FA 26
Tier 6
  34 Jacoby Brissett FA 28
  35 Gardner Minshew JAC 24
  36 Dwayne Haskins PIT 24
  37 Marcus Mariota LV 27
  38 Andy Dalton FA 33
  39 Alex Smith WAS 37
  40 Nick Mullens SF 26
  Deshaun Watson, HOU: As much uncertainty as an elite QB has entered an offseason with in recent memory.

  Justin Herbert, LAC: Despite historic rookie season, lot of meat left on the bone statistically due to poor coaching.

  Tua Tagovailoa, MIA: Way too early to close the book on a player that had no preseason coming off a devastating injury.

  Jalen Hurts, PHI: Flashed during December audition but will move forward w/ new coaching staff, young WR corps.

  Carson Wentz, IND: Back in the hands of the coach (Frank Reich) that once helped him to play at an MVP level.

  Taysom Hill, NO: Threat of potential Jameis Winston return/delay in Drew Brees' retirement decision makes him risky pre-free agency.

  Taylor Heinicke, WAS: Appears to have reasonable chance to begin 2021 as the starter in Washington.

Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA TODAY's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM's 'Fantasy Drive.' Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.