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Regular Season, Updated: 8/17/19

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Legend:   Upside = Upside   Risk = Risk   ADP = Average Draft Position
FF Today Standard Scoring: Review Scoring
 Patrick Mahomes, KC (Bye: 12)
Height: 6’2”   Weight: 225   DOB: 1995-09-17   Age: 23
College: Texas Tech   Draft: 2017 Round 1 (10) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2017KC122 35 284 0 1 7 10 0 15.2 15.2
2018KC16383 580 5,097 50 12 60 272 2 494.1 30.9
2019 (Projected)KC 394 597 4,720 37 15 59 255 1 415.5  

Outlook: The reigning NFL Most Valuable Player, a case could be made that Patrick Mahomes was also the fantasy football MVP this past season as he racked up a ridiculous 50 touchdown passes on 5,097 yards passing, adding an additional two touchdowns as a runner.

Mahomes' average draft position in 2018 (10.09, QB15) is really what made him the value he was, though, as he wasn't even being selected as a QB1 in many leagues. This season he'll almost certainly be the highest-drafted quarterback in just about every league, which means that he'd need to replicate or at least come close to his production from a season ago to truly return value given his draft position.

There are reasons to be optimistic about Mahomes meeting or even exceeding his 2018 numbers here in 2019, however. Many expected that Tyreek Hill would miss some time but the league has now made it clear that Hill will not be suspended, which certainly helps the Kansas City offense. Tight end Travis Kelce will also be back, alongside Sammy Watkins who will now be entering his second season in the offense. The Chiefs also made a significant investment in their passing game when they drafted young speedster wide receiver Mecole Hardman in the second round of April's NFL Draft. Many viewed Hardman as an insurance policy for Hill should he miss significant time, but now the Chiefs will have the benefit of rostering two of the league's fastest players at wide receiver, potentially putting them on the field at the same time. Combine that with Mahomes' cannon of an arm and it's easy to see why experts are excited about this offense.

Certainly there is value in not having to spend waiver wire position or FAAB dollars on your quarterback position, but the value that even elite-level quarterbacks give over their peers is often not worth their opportunity cost of losing out on high quality starters at positions with fewer usable assets, specifically running back and wide receiver. Mahomes supporters will point to his 2018 numbers as a reason that he is an exception to the "rule" that most fantasy experts agree on, which is that quarterbacks are overdrafted in most leagues. If he can produce that kind of output again in 2019 then Mahomes will likely live up to his current ADP, but history tells us that replicating 50 touchdown seasons just does not happen. Even 40 touchdown seasons are extremely difficult to accomplish in back-to-back seasons. If there's anyone who can do it, though, it might just be Mahomes in this rocket-fueled Chiefs offense.

 Deshaun Watson, HOU (Bye: 10)
Height: 6’2”   Weight: 221   DOB: 1995-09-14   Age: 23
College: Clemson   Draft: 2017 Round 1 (12) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2017HOU7126 204 1,699 19 8 36 269 2 199.9 28.6
2018HOU16345 505 4,165 26 9 99 551 5 397.4 24.8
2019 (Projected)HOU 333 512 4,045 26 10 89 517 4 382.0  

Outlook: Watson proved sophomore slump nay-sayers wrong with an impressive second season in which the former Clemson Tiger passed for just under 4200 yards and 26 touchdowns. He added 551 rushing yards and five touchdowns on the ground to finish as the fifth-ranked quarterback with 24.8 fantasy points per game.

Watson achieved top-five status despite a slew of injuries stemming from the fact that he was sacked more than any QB in the league. The Texans addressed their dire need on the offensive line in the draft, which will hopefully result in Watson staying upright and healthy.

With a wide receiving corps of DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller, and Keke Coutee, Watson has more than enough weapons to produce elite fantasy production once again in 2019. Although, a lack of an elite receiving tight end option and the fact that Fuller and Coutee are somewhat injury prone could be a concern.

Despite those issues, the elite running ability Watson possesses, and the fact that Bill O'Brien continues to use Watson's legs in the red zone, make him a dual-threat weapon worthy of a top-five pick at the position.

 Aaron Rodgers, GB (Bye: 11)
Height: 6’2”   Weight: 225   DOB: 1983-12-02   Age: 35
College: California   Draft: 2005 Round 1 (24) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2016GB16401 610 4,428 40 7 67 369 4 442.3 27.6
2017GB7154 238 1,675 16 6 24 126 0 160.4 22.9
2018GB16372 597 4,442 25 2 43 269 2 361.0 22.6
2019 (Projected)GB 396 609 4,388 30 7 48 258 2 377.2  

Outlook: The saying in pro sports is that availability is the best ability. But when is that only a half truth? When you play a full season on a mysteriously damaged knee, that's when. Although Aaron Rodgers finished as a QB1, had an absurd 25-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and once again threw for over 4,400 yards, he failed to finish in the top-5 among fantasy quarterbacks. 2018 was the first time that's happened in a 16-game season since his first time as a full-time starter in 2008.

Clearly the knee injury suffered in Week 1 affected Rodgers the entire season. He struggled to avoid the rush, wasn't nearly as dangerous with his legs and lacked the normal touch his passes typically have. Add in the fact that he was breaking in a host of young, unfamiliar receivers behind Davante Adams, and there you have the reason the Packers only reached 30 points four times last season.

There are some fairly significant coaching changes coming for Rodgers in 2019. For the first time since he became Green Bay's full-time starter in 2008, Mike McCarthy won't be the head coach voice in the headset. In comes fairly green Matt LaFleur who is yet another branch of the Sean McVay coaching tree, but is only a few years older than Rodgers. While LaFleur has worked alongside some of the league's most impressive offensive minds, he failed to really maximize the talent he had in Tennessee last year as the offensive coordinator. Rodgers had a rocky ending to his relationship with McCarthy, and it remains to be seen how he'll react to the change.

For all the changes going on in Green Bay from the roster and front office, to the coaching staff, Rodgers' fantasy value will as usual, come down to his health. Significant injuries to his calf, shoulder, and knee in recent seasons have been his downfall, and he left his final game of 2018 with a fairly significant concussion. He's in his mid-30s, but is still one of the best players in the NFL. If the talent around him can continue to develop, he's as good of a bet as any to finish as one of the top fantasy quarterbacks.

 Andrew Luck, IND (Bye: 6)
Height: 6’4”   Weight: 234   DOB: 1989-09-12   Age: 29
College: Stanford   Draft: 2012 Round 1 (1) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2016IND15346 545 4,240 31 13 64 341 2 382.1 25.5
2018IND16430 639 4,593 39 15 46 148 0 400.5 25.0
2019 (Projected)IND 377 571 4,282 32 13 44 179 1 366.0  

Outlook: Owners who rolled the dice on Andrew Luck returning to form after missing the entire 2017 season were rewarded handsomely last season, as the former first overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft finished the season as the No.5 fantasy quarterback.

Luck posted the highest completion percentage of his career (67.3), and his 39 passing touchdowns were second only to Patrick Mahomes (50). From a consistency perspective, only Matt Ryan and Mahomes gave fantasy owners more consistent performances on a week-to-week basis than Luck, with the former Stanford Cardinal standout posting at least two passing touchdowns in 14 of his 16 regular season games.

The Colts boast of the best offensive lines in the league, a viable running game with Marlon Mack and Nyehim Hines, and the most talented wide receiving and high-end group since Luck joined the team in 2012. A calf injury that sidelined luck during minicamp is lingering into training camp and beginning to become a concern. The sky is the limit for Luck this year with a realistic chance of finishing as the QB1 should he stay healthy and play all 16 games.

 Matt Ryan, ATL (Bye: 9)
Height: 6’4”   Weight: 220   DOB: 1985-05-17   Age: 34
College: Boston College   Draft: 2008 Round 1 (3) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2016ATL16373 534 4,944 38 7 35 117 0 410.9 25.7
2017ATL16342 529 4,095 20 12 32 143 0 299.1 18.7
2018ATL16422 608 4,924 35 7 33 125 3 416.7 26.0
2019 (Projected)ATL 382 570 4,556 29 11 82 131 1 362.9  

Outlook: Like other top-ranked QBs in 2018, Matt Ryan's impressive season last year was overshadowed by the breakout year by Patrick Mahomes. Ryan's 26 fantasy points per game were .3 points per game higher than his MVP season in 2016, and his three rushing touchdowns were the most in his career.

A dreadful defense caused by significant injuries to multiple stars on the defensive side of the ball created a situation in which Ryan and the offense were required to score a ton to stay in games. While that same scenario does not appear to be in play this year with those defensive players returning from injury, the Falcons do play in a tough division against with the Saints and Bucs, to teams who boast high powered offenses.

Like his fellow NFC South counterpart, Drew Brees, Matt Ryan boasts significant splits in games played inside in the dome. The good news for Ryan owners is the fact that the Falcons play all but three of their games indoors this year, including shootout-worthy matchups against the Colts, Eagles, and Cardinals.

Another positive for Ryan and the entire Falcons offense is the draft capital that the team used this offseason to bolster their offensive line. If given time to survey the field, Ryan can put up numbers on par with just about any other quarterback not named Patrick Mahomes.

 Drew Brees, NO (Bye: 9)
Height: 6’0”   Weight: 209   DOB: 1979-01-15   Age: 40
College: Purdue   Draft: 2001 Round 2 (1) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2016NO16471 673 5,207 37 15 23 20 2 422.4 26.4
2017NO16387 537 4,338 23 8 33 12 2 322.1 20.1
2018NO15364 489 3,992 32 5 31 22 4 353.8 23.6
2019 (Projected)NO 393 546 4,365 30 7 3 17 2 352.0  

Outlook: Much has been made about the demise of Drew Brees, as the first-ballot Hall of Famer finished as the number 10 quarterback in fantasy despite setting an NFL record with a completion percentage of 74.4.

Brees' 3992 passing yards and 489 pass attempts were the fewest since he joined the Saints back in 2007, and his No.10 ranking would have been even worse had he not posted a career-high of four rushing touchdowns.

Based on the team's commitment to run the ball and improvement to what for many years was a bad defense, the days of Brees throwing the ball 670 times for 5000 yards are likely a thing of the past. At age 40 and with Alvin Kamara and a stout offensive line, head coach Sean Payton is doing the smart thing for his football team by limiting the number of times Brees throws the ball and gets hit by opposing linebackers and defensive lineman.

Despite throwing for less than 4000 yards (It should be noted that Brees only played in 15 games), Brees did increase his passing touchdown total by nine from the previous season. His volume is down, but his efficiency went up, and he has averaged 2.5 rushing touchdowns in each of his last two seasons.

Sure, the days of Brees being a league-winning quarterback are likely over. But the NFL's all-time leading passer is still in command of a top-5 offense filled with talented skill position players. He may not get you 5000 yards, but he is falling in ADP and could be a nice option for owners who miss out on one of the top six quarterbacks - especially in leagues who punish quarterbacks for interceptions.

 Jared Goff, LAR (Bye: 9)
Height: 6’4”   Weight: 215   DOB: 1994-10-14   Age: 24
College: California   Draft: 2016 Round 1 (1) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2016LAR7112 205 1,089 5 7 8 16 1 82.1 11.7
2017LAR15297 478 3,809 28 7 28 51 1 313.6 20.9
2018LAR16364 561 4,688 32 12 43 108 2 385.2 24.1
2019 (Projected)LAR 343 544 4,351 30 11 15 85 1 352.1  

Outlook: Once considered a bust by many analysts, 24-year-old Jared Goff now leads one of the most potent offenses in the league into the 2019. Goff, however, may be facing more pressure than ever before as Rams running back Todd Gurley continues to deal with chronic knee problems. While there is some concern that the Rams offense could take a step back overall if Gurley misses significant time this season, it's also true that Sean McVay would likely lean more heavily on the passing game if his star running back is out. This could actually lead to an uptick in pass attempts for Goff this season, who already finished as the sixth-highest scorer at the position in 2018.

Goff now has to be considered a locked in top-12 option for fantasy purposes and a real contender to be a top-three option at the position given the weapons he has at his disposal. It can often be difficult to predict which one of these Rams receivers is set to command the highest target share in a given week and the best way to hedge your bet might just be to invest in Goff. Currently being selected barely inside the top-12 in most platforms, Goff is being drafted essentially at his floor with plenty of upside. There is something to be said for simply streaming the position each week, but if you're someone who is looking for a consistently high-floor option at QB with the potential for some boom weeks, Goff really is a great value right now in fantasy drafts.

The one major concern with Goff is that he was not nearly as successful without Gurley as he was with the all-pro running back. In weeks 15 and 16, as well as the NFC Championship and Super Bowl when Gurley was either out or significantly limited, Goff struggled to produce fantasy-relevant performances. He threw for just 235 yards per game with six total touchdowns, completing just 61 percent of his passes with two interceptions. Worse yet, four of those six touchdowns came in the Rams' Week 16 victory over the 49ers and he was held to just two scores in the other three games mentioned. While this is way too small of a sample size to give us any definitive proof that Goff cannot produce without Gurley on the field, it is a legitimate concern and one that we need to be aware of if making the investment in Goff in fantasy football.

 Jameis Winston, TB (Bye: 7)
Height: 6’4”   Weight: 231   DOB: 1994-01-06   Age: 25
College: Florida State   Draft: 2015 Round 1 (1) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2016TB16345 568 4,090 28 18 52 168 1 339.3 21.2
2017TB13282 442 3,504 19 11 33 135 1 270.7 20.8
2018TB11244 378 2,992 19 14 49 281 1 259.7 23.6
2019 (Projected)TB 348 561 4,265 27 15 59 277 1 355.0  

Outlook: After an up-and-down 2018 that included a suspension and multiple benchings for erratic play, Jameis Winston enters 2019 as the unquestioned starter for new head coach Bruce Arians in what is a make or break season for the former first overall pick. Winston is effectively playing for a new contract either with the Bucs or with another team, which will hopefully motivate the promising young quarterback to deliver his best season as a professional.

Winston finished the season as the No.9 quarterback in points per game, tied with Drew Brees and less than a point behind Jared Goff. If you combine the stats for the two quarterbacks in Tampa Bay last season, Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick, you would have had a top-three fantasy quarterback with well over 500 passing yards and 35 touchdowns.

The addition of head coach Bruce Arians is going to be a positive for all of the skill portion players in the passing game, especially Winston, as Arians has a long track record of increasing ADOT for his receivers and improving the production of his quarterbacks.

Another positive for Winston is the fact that he plays in a tough division with high scoring teams like the Falcons and Saints, and the defense for the Bucs projects to be one of the worst in the NFC. A gun-slinging quarterback with a great head coach, fantastic skill position players, and a terrible defense is a winning formula for fantasy production. Let's just hope Winston isn't too much of a gun-slinger and gets benched.

 Carson Wentz, PHI (Bye: 10)
Height: 6’5”   Weight: 237   DOB: 1992-12-30   Age: 26
College: North Dakota State   Draft: 2016 Round 1 (2) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2016PHI16379 607 3,782 16 14 46 150 2 280.1 17.5
2017PHI13265 440 3,296 33 7 64 299 0 326.7 25.1
2018PHI11279 401 3,074 21 7 34 93 0 247.0 22.5
2019 (Projected)PHI 376 579 4,285 28 10 61 220 1 354.3  

Outlook: Carson Wentz enters the 2019 season as one of the better values at the quarterback position. Although he was limited in each of his last two seasons with leg and back injuries, Wentz continues to put up QB production in what should be a potent Philadelphia offense.

Wentz played in only 11 games last season as a back injury forced him the IR. However, in those games, Wentz averaged more fantasy points than a host of other fantasy players, including Baker Mayfield, Russell Wilson, Tom Brady, Philip Rivers, and Kirk Cousins.

The second overall pick in the 2016 NFL draft ranked 5th overall for qualified QBs on our consistency rankings (at least ten games), behind only Patrick Mahomes, Matt Ryan, Andrew Luck, and Cam Newton.

Positive trends surround the Eagles offense on both the offensive line and skill positions, as Howie Roseman added tackle Andre Dillard in the draft, along with running back Miles Sanders and wide receiver JJ Arcega-Whiteside. Perhaps the most significant addition to the offense is the return of wide receiver DeSean Jackson, who will give Wentz a much-needed player to stretch the field.

Only a few quarterbacks in the league boast the number of weapons that Carson Wentz has at his disposal. While there is always the concern of injury, Wentz could be one of the best values of the draft.

 Baker Mayfield, CLE (Bye: 7)
Height: 6’1”   Weight: 215   DOB: 1995-04-14   Age: 24
College: Oklahoma   Draft: 2018 Round 1 (1) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2018CLE14310 486 3,725 27 14 39 131 0 307.4 22.0
2019 (Projected)CLE 354 553 4,255 29 15 44 159 1 350.7  

Outlook: In just one season of football (14 games to be exact) Baker Mayfield has reset the expectations of a morose franchise. Along the way to setting the rookie record for most passing touchdowns (27), Mayfield displayed the moxie, accuracy, and big play ability that made him the No.1 pick in the 2018 draft, and put the Browns in the rare air of playoff contention. Mayfield proved the doubters wrong, but can he and the team carry over the momentum into 2019?

There is every reason to believe that Mayfield can, and should improve on his 2018 numbers. Remember, he started the first two games of last season on the bench, and the additions of OBJ and Kareem Hunt add to an already stocked pantry of offensive delights. The continuity he will have with his head coach means Mayfield should be poised for a breakout. But before you go betting the house on Cleveland's new prize horse, remember, he's the fuse sitting on top of a powder keg of strong personalities. There are already rumblings that the transition to new OC Todd Monken is off to a rocky start. While the Browns have the potential to be the new darlings of the NFL, there are some who believe they are just as likely to implode. They are led by a very green head coach, and things could spiral out of control quickly should the team not find the success it anticipates.

From a purely fantasy perspective, Mayfield is part of the deepest position in the game, and I'm frankly not in love with his offensive line, especially the left side. There is no doubt in my mind that Mayfield has monster upside (top 3), but he doesn't come without risk (despite the high touchdown totals, his 15 interceptions in 14 games tell me he was still too loose with the ball) and his very early off-season ADP seems a little high for me. Mayfield helped win me two leagues last year, so I have a soft spot for him, and would be happy to run him back as my QB1 as long as I can draft him in a comfortable spot.

 Cam Newton, CAR (Bye: 7)
Height: 6’5”   Weight: 244   DOB: 1989-05-11   Age: 30
College: Auburn   Draft: 2011 Round 1 (1) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2016CAR15270 509 3,509 19 14 90 359 5 317.4 21.2
2017CAR16291 492 3,302 22 16 139 754 6 364.5 22.8
2018CAR14320 471 3,395 24 13 101 488 4 338.6 24.2
2019 (Projected)CAR 326 510 3,567 23 14 117 501 4 344.5  

Outlook: A shoulder injury cut short Cam Newton's 2018 campaign to just 14 games and limited his ability to throw the ball downfield for most of the season. Newton was clearly not himself in his final few games of action, often missing downfield targets by a large margin and relying on check-downs more than usual.

On a positive note, Newton's 68% completion percentage was by far the best of his career, and he threw for 90 more yards last season than the season prior, despite missing the final two games of the season.

With his shoulder reportedly doing better and a new throwing motion to help ease the strain on his body, Newton enters the 2019 season as a sneaky mid-to-late round QB with top 5 upside at the position.

The emergence of Christian McCaffrey as a true workhorse back, the development of D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel, and the return of tight end Greg Olsen give Newton more than enough firepower at the skill positions to be successful.

If he is able to play a full 16-game schedule, throw the ball relatively accurately without pain, and continue to rush for nearly 500 yards and five touchdowns, Newton is an absolute bargain based on his ADP.

 Kyler Murray, ARI (Bye: 12)
Height: 5’10”   Weight: 207   DOB: 1997-08-07   Age: 22
College: Oklahoma   Draft: 2019 Round 1 (1) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2019 (Projected)ARI 321 535 3,747 22 13 125 635 3 356.9  

Outlook: There may not have been a bigger change in offensive philosophy this offseason than what took place in Arizona. A season after drafting Josh Rosen in the top 10, the Cardinals have already opted to move on. They traded Rosen away and selected quarterback Kyler Murray at the No.1 overall spot in this year's draft. Without a quality veteran on the roster, Murray will be given the reigns to start right away and that, combined with a head coach change, will almost certainly mean that Arizona's offense looks completely different in 2019 than it did in 2018.

The Cardinals ran the second-fewest plays per game in 2018 as the team simply hoped to win games based on defense and running the football. That won't be the case this season. Under new head coach Kliff Kingsbury, the Cardinals offense will almost certainly be near the league lead in total offensive plays run and that should benefit every member of this offense, particularly Murray.

Everyone knows that Murray is an athletic freak who is capable of putting up big numbers as a runner, but his ability as a passer seems to almost be forgotten by some fantasy analysts. Yes, it's true that college production does not always equal NFL production, but we saw Baker Mayfield put up some very impressive rookie numbers after coming out of the same offense that Murray did at Oklahoma. It's also worth noting that Murray actually had a slightly higher QB rating than Mayfield did in each of their final collegiate seasons. Both quarterbacks put up record-breaking numbers, but the difference is that while Mayfield was stuck in an archaic offense in Cleveland, Murray will be running a relatively similar offense in Arizona to the one that he and Mayfield ran in college at Oklahoma. That, combined with Murray's running ability, makes him one of the most interesting, if not polarizing fantasy quarterbacks for the 2019 season. It's not often that a rookie is able to step in and produce top-12 fantasy numbers at quarterback in the NFL, but that is well within his range of outcomes.

The only fair criticism that doubters seem to be throwing onto Murray is in regards to his size. At 5'10" and 207 lbs., Murray will be one of the smallest quarterbacks in the league. That's not such a big deal at the college level where the players tend to be smaller on average, but it is a real concern in the NFL. If the Arizona offensive line plays as poorly as it did in 2018 then there is real concern that Murray could take some serious damage behind center which would obviously limit his upside and give him an increased chance for major injury.

From a fantasy standpoint, though, there may not be a better fantasy value than Murray, especially in normal single-quarterback leagues where we can drop him and simply stream the position if he were to get injured. Murray is currently being drafted within the top 10 at the position but his upside makes him a great value in most leagues.