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Regular Season, Updated: 9/5/2022

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 Josh Allen, BUF (Bye: 7)
1
Height: 6’5”   Weight: 233   DOB: 1996-05-21   Age: 26
College: Wyoming   Draft: 2018 Round 1 (7) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2019BUF16271 461 3,089 20 9 109 510 9 339.5 21.2
2020BUF16396 572 4,544 37 10 102 421 8 465.3 29.1
2021BUF17409 646 4,407 36 15 122 763 6 476.7 28.0
2022 (Projected)BUF 396 609 4,322 35 13 113 612 7 459.3  

Outlook: Buffalo's Josh Allen became the first quarterback to finish as the No. 1 fantasy quarterback in back-to-back seasons since Drew Brees in 2011 and 2012. Allen has thrown for at least 4,400 yards and 36 touchdowns in each of the last two seasons while also adding nearly 1,200 total rushing yards and 14 touchdowns on the ground. With Allen still being just 26 years old, it makes sense that he would still be looked at as the top fantasy quarterback headed into 2022 and there's even reason to believe that we may not have seen his best form quite yet.

Even though he took a bit of a step back in overall passing production from 2020 to 2021, the only real significant difference that we saw was in the interceptions department which saw him go from 10 in 2020 to 12 in 2021. Sure, his yards per attempt were lower as well, but that number was still higher than in either of his first two seasons in the league.

The one thing that we really have to love about Allen is that his athleticism isn't hampered by his size. At 6'5" and 237 lbs, he's significantly larger than the other more athletic quarterbacks like Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts. This allows him to withstand more impact on hits from defenders (and even run over those defenders from time to time), reducing his relative risk of being injured. Allen is like Cam Newton as a runner, with much better box-stuffing numbers as a passer.

While Allen's weapons have taken a bit of a hit this offseason, losing both Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley, the late-season emergence of Gabriel Davis along with the continued elite play of Stefon Diggs should give fantasy managers all the confidence they need to select Allen first among quarterbacks in drafts.


 Patrick Mahomes, KC (Bye: 8)
2
Height: 6’2”   Weight: 225   DOB: 1995-09-17   Age: 27
College: Texas Tech   Draft: 2017 Round 1 (10) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2019KC14319 484 4,031 26 5 43 218 2 339.4 24.2
2020KC15390 588 4,740 38 6 62 308 2 431.8 28.8
2021KC17436 658 4,839 37 13 66 381 2 440.1 25.9
2022 (Projected)KC 405 614 4,667 35 10 64 335 2 418.9  

Outlook: Remember that five- or six-week stretch when the league had "figured out" Mahomes and the Chiefs offense... only for the quarterback to throw 23 touchdowns and four INTs over his final eight games of the season, during which the Chiefs went 6-2. Ah, good times, good times. You can almost hear that same group warming up the choir about how trading Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins will spell the end of Kansas City's offensive dominance in 2022. Some people never learn.

To be clear, Mahomes is an elite talent, and his uncanny ability to buy time in the pocket and make throws most QBs can only dream of is always going to elevate those around him. In the same way that Aaron Rodgers will be fine without Davante Adams, Mahomes is going to deliver numbers even with Hill in South Beach. In four full seasons as the starter, the Texas Tech product has averaged 4,677 yards passing, 295 yards rushing, 38 TDs, and 9 INTs per year.

Yes, there will be some changes with Hill gone, but the arrival of the Hyphen Bros (copyright pending), JuJu Smith-Schuster from Pittsburgh and Marquez Valdes-Scantling from Green Bay, along with the selection of Skyy Moore, should keep any deterioration to a minimum. Plus, don't underestimate how astute head coach Andy Reid is as an offensive play caller. Other than Josh Allen and perhaps Justin Herbert, there's nobody at the position that should be selected ahead of Mahomes.


 Justin Herbert, LAC (Bye: 8)
3
Height: 6’6”   Weight: 236   DOB: 1998-03-10   Age: 24
College: Oregon   Draft: 2020 Round 1 (6) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2020LAC15396 595 4,336 31 10 55 234 5 394.2 26.3
2021LAC17443 672 5,014 38 15 63 302 3 450.9 26.5
2022 (Projected)LAC 417 632 4,680 35 14 60 271 3 419.1  

Outlook: Every time Dolphins fans look at the 2020 NFL Draft, they must get a sick feeling in the pit of their stomachs after Miami took Tua Tagovailoa ahead of Justin Herbert. While Tagovailoa could still carve out a solid NFL career, the odds of him being better than Herbert seem astronomical (barring injury, of course) as the Oregon product is already viewed as one of the top quarterbacks out there and is probably 1a/1b with Joe Burrow for QBs 25 and under -- and you'd only tack Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen ahead of that duo if you pushed the age limit out to 30.

While he was prone to some off days during his sophomore season, Herbert still finished the year with 5,014 yards passing, 302 yards rushing, 41 combined TDs (38 passing, 3 rushing), and 15 INTs. He has a tremendous arm, underrated athleticism, and, perhaps more importantly in the modern NFL, he trusts in his ability and the ability of his receivers to make plays, and he gives them that opportunity. Expect Herbert to get even more dangerous as he gains experience where the already rare poor decisions become even more infrequent.

Los Angeles may not have the depth of talent of some elite offenses, but the top of their depth chart is stacked with Pro Bowl contenders in the backfield and at receiver. Put an emerging superstar at the head of that offense, and the sky is the limit for what the Bolts could do in 2022 assuming their key pieces stay healthy. Other than Allen, who deserves to be the No. 1 quarterback selected, Herbert is in the conversation with Mahomes for the next QB off fantasy boards.


 Tom Brady, TB (Bye: 11)
4
Height: 6’4”   Weight: 225   DOB: 1977-08-03   Age: 45
College: Michigan   Draft: 2000 Round 6 (33) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2019NE16373 613 4,057 24 8 26 34 3 320.3 20.0
2020TB16401 610 4,633 40 12 30 6 3 410.3 25.6
2021TB17485 719 5,316 43 12 28 81 2 457.9 26.9
2022 (Projected)TB 417 622 4,667 38 11 28 55 2 402.9  

Outlook: Like everything else Tom Brady, fantasy TB12 is the exception, not the rule, especially since his move to Tampa Bay two seasons ago. In this age of dual threat quarterbacks dominating draft boards, rankings and projections, the 45-year-old Brady is the one guy who just stands in the pocket and picks apart defenses and still dishes out ridiculous fantasy production. In 2021, he averaged nearly 27.0 fantasy points per game by leading the NFL in attempts (719), completions (485), passing yards (5316), and touchdown passes (43). The previous season, he ranked 10th in fantasy points per game (25.6) and has averaged at least 20.0 fantasy points per game every season since 2014.

The truth is, as expected, this Buccaneers offense has worked its' way more towards Brady's favored ball-control passing game than Bruce Arians' "no risk it, no biscuit" attack, which never played to the quarterback's strengths. That may explain in part why Todd Bowles is now the Bucs' head coach. But that has caused some concern among fantasy owners as well. Bowles, like all coaches who come from the defensive side of the ball, loves a strong running game. Not to worry, though. Brady's accuracy and efficiency in the short to intermediate passing game really serves as an extension of the running game. Brady dominated the fantasy rankings last season with a 102.1 QB rating (7th among NFL starters) while averaging just 7.4 yards per attempt (12th among league qualifiers).

Looking forward, Gronk has called it quits and Antonio Brown is off doing his thing (whatever that is) somewhere else. But Brady still has Mike Evans, Russell Gage has joined the fray as a free agent, Scotty Miller, Breshad Perriman, and Cyril Grayson are all capable targets who have the ability to flash, TE Cameron Brate is an underrated receiver who will get his first real shot as a full-time starter and can be a moneymaker in the red zone, RB Leonard Fournette is coming off 69 receptions a year ago (3rd amongst NFL RB's), and Giovai Bernard has receiving skills and could get a bigger role with the departure of Ronald Jones. Then, later in the season, Chris Godwin should return to the lineup after recovering from his ACL injury suffered late last season.

It all adds up to one thing. Brady is a top 5 QB1 candidate.


 Kyler Murray, ARI (Bye: 13)
5
Height: 5’10”   Weight: 207   DOB: 1997-08-07   Age: 25
College: Oklahoma   Draft: 2019 Round 1 (1) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2019ARI16349 542 3,722 20 12 93 544 4 344.5 21.5
2020ARI16375 558 3,971 26 12 133 819 11 450.5 28.2
2021ARI14333 481 3,787 24 10 88 423 5 357.7 25.5
2022 (Projected)ARI 358 534 4,004 25 11 109 545 6 390.7  

Outlook: When he's on top of his game, Murray is one of the league's preeminent dual threats, which in turn makes him a potential top fantasy producer. At 5-foot-10, 207 pounds, the diminutive QB has shown a tendency to fade down the stretch over his first three seasons. These winter swoons tend to begin with some sort of injury -- in 2020, it was his shoulder, and last year an ankle -- so it's fair to have some level of concern about his durability despite missing just three games in his career.

While there are quarterbacks out there capable of delivering enough value with their arm that their running is just a bonus (e.g., Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes), Murray is more in line with Lamar Jackson where running is vital to their QB1 fantasy status. Unfortunately, Murray hasn't been used the same since he suffered the shoulder injury against Seattle in November 2020, going from almost 10 carries per game over that season's first nine games to just 5.8 rushes per contest in the 23 games since.

On the plus side, the Cardinals made some moves to fortify the passing game, adding former college teammate Marquise Brown from the Ravens to join a receiving corps that already featured DeAndre Hopkins and A.J. Green, and drafting Trey McBride in the second round to potentially give Murray three quality tight ends to work with. While he'll be without Hopkins during his suspension, the hope for fantasy owners is that gains in the passing game help offset Murray's downturn in running.

Murray is absolutely a top-10 fantasy quarterback, but he's arguably the most volatile one apart from perhaps Jalen Hurts. As such you'll need to balance his top-three upside against what have been lengthy stretches of QB2 play over the past two seasons.


 Dak Prescott, DAL (Bye: 9)
6
Height: 6’2”   Weight: 226   DOB: 1993-07-29   Age: 29
College: Mississippi State   Draft: 2016 Round 4 (37) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2019DAL16388 596 4,902 30 11 52 277 3 410.8 25.7
2020DAL5151 222 1,856 9 4 18 93 3 156.1 31.2
2021DAL16410 596 4,449 37 10 48 146 1 391.1 24.4
2022 (Projected)DAL 377 554 4,267 35 11 60 238 2 389.2  

Outlook: 2021 saw the Cowboys finally take the steps forward that many had been expecting them to take for a long time now. Dallas led the NFL in both total yards per game and points per game, making them one of the most fantasy-friendly teams in the league. While those totals led to quarterback Dak Prescott being a quality mid-level QB1 on the year, he was surprisingly inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. He finished with 25 or more points in 11 contests but also finished with fewer than 17 points in five other games. That left only two games where he finished between 17 and 25 fantasy points.

These types of dramatic swings from week to week can be good if you're in a format like best ball, but many traditional fantasy gamers don't have the patience to deal with a quarterback who gives them 12 points one week and 33 the next. Sadly, it's unlikely that Prescott is suddenly going to ascend into being a weekly elite option here in 2022. While the Cowboys did bring in new weapons in veteran James Washington (foot) and rookie Jalen Tolbert, they lost their former WR1 in Amari Cooper. Add in the reality that Michael Gallup will likely start the season on the PUP list after his ACL surgery and it looks like we could see a noticeably worse passing game in Dallas this season.

Many experts are projecting the Cowboys to be even better defensively than they were in 2021, which would presumably mean fewer situations where the team needs to pass and thus a lower ceiling for Prescott. Still, he's a safe option once the high-upside options are off the board. He may not be a league winner, but he's also unlikely to be a league loser at the QB position.


 Jalen Hurts, PHI (Bye: 7)
7
Height: 6’1”   Weight: 222   DOB: 1998-08-07   Age: 24
College: Oklahoma   Draft: 2020 Round 2 (21) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2020PHI1577 148 1,061 6 4 63 357 3 130.8 8.7
2021PHI15265 432 3,144 16 9 140 782 10 359.4 24.0
2022 (Projected)PHI 299 482 3,520 21 13 131 735 7 375.5  

Outlook: A quiet season passing the football meant that Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts barely squeaked inside the QB1 range in 2021. His 16 touchdowns were tied (with Lamar Jackson) for the fewest among top-20 fantasy QBs, but he was one of only five top-20 QBs who finished with single-digit interceptions. The thing that really buoyed his fantasy production, however, was his rushing. Hurts quietly led all quarterbacks in rush attempts (140), rushing yards (782) and rushing touchdowns (10).

So, what's changed between this past season and now? Well, the most obvious difference is that the Eagles identified a problem that the majority of fantasy owners have been pointing to for the past few seasons which is that the team lacked legitimate outside weapons. DeVonta Smith was decent enough as a rookie, but the team really made a big splash during this year's NFL Draft when they made the move to acquire a proven producer in A.J. Brown. Brown spent the first three seasons of his NFL career in the run-heavy Tennessee offense, but still produced nearly 3,000 yards while scoring 24 touchdowns. The big-bodied receiver is a welcome addition to a Philadelphia passing game that lacked red zone production and his presence should serve to increase the passing ceiling for Hurts.

In order for Hurts to remain a QB1 for fantasy he'll need to continue to produce on the ground and while there is some risk of injury that could hamper that potential, we've seen over the years that these productive runners at the quarterback position are often times more consistent than their less-mobile counterparts. Best yet is the reality that, with a little bit of touchdown luck, Hurts could actually be a difference-maker at the top of the position. It's not difficult to imagine a world where he throws 25 touchdown passes while maintaining his rushing production, which would instantly catapult him into being in the conversation as a top five fantasy quarterback.


 Lamar Jackson, BAL (Bye: 10)
8
Height: 6’3”   Weight: 200   DOB: 1997-01-07   Age: 25
College: Louisville   Draft: 2018 Round 1 (32) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2019BAL15265 401 3,127 36 6 176 1,206 7 463.0 30.9
2020BAL15242 376 2,757 26 9 159 1,005 7 384.4 25.6
2021BAL12246 382 2,882 16 13 133 767 2 296.8 24.7
2022 (Projected)BAL 298 459 3,396 22 12 145 856 4 367.4  

Outlook: After two history book seasons in 2019 and 2020, 2021 showed just how quickly things can turn, even for a dynamic player like Lamar Jackson. A boatload of injuries to the offense didn't help, nor did the first major injury of his career. Missing five games certainly hurt Jackson's bottom line stats, but it was a troublesome 16-13 touchdown to interception ratio that once again has the league questioning his ability to be an effective passer.

Despite what seems like continued league-wide disrespect and a very odd contract negotiation, I fully expect Jackson to bounce back and be one of fantasy's most explosive players in 2022. While his season-long stats took a nosedive, he still finished just outside the top-5 with a 24.7 points-per-game average, and has added some bulk to his slight frame. The added muscle should help absorb the hits he'll continue to take as a runner, something I don't envision slowing anytime soon. His running ability is what makes him special, and 150 carries should be a near guarantee. The loss of Hollywood Brown hurts the depth in the receiver room, and nixes a big downfield threat, but Brown was maddeningly inconsistent, and Bateman is a much more refined route runner with better hands. With his runners hopefully back healthy, Jackson shouldn't have to take on the burden of the entire offense again in 2022, allowing him to play a little more under control. Jackson has more chips on his shoulder than a bag of Lays, and makes for an easy QB1 with top-5 upside.


 Joe Burrow, CIN (Bye: 10)
9
Height: 6’4”   Weight: 221   DOB: 1996-12-10   Age: 25
College: Louisiana State   Draft: 2020 Round 1 (1) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2020CIN10264 404 2,688 13 5 37 142 3 218.6 21.9
2021CIN16366 520 4,611 34 14 40 118 2 390.4 24.4
2022 (Projected)CIN 387 569 4,438 30 13 28 122 2 366.1  

Outlook: There are second year leaps, and there is what Burrow accomplished in 2022. Expectations were cool for Burrow and the Bengals, as the former 1st overall pick worked his way back from a devastating rookie year knee injury. We all know those expectations were shattered as Burrow and the Bengals rolled all the way to a 3-point loss in the Super Bowl.

Scarily enough, this offense should have plenty of room to grow if the protection can improve. Burrow was sacked an unsustainable 51 times last season, and it became a meme by the time the season ended. That said, the main cogs in this offense are in their mid-20s, and Burrow gets a healthy offseason to continue to build chemistry with the receivers. The threat of the Super Bowl hangover exists, but this is a young team oozing with swag, so the improved teams in their division and increased expectations should supersede any residual effects from the tough loss. Burrow easily led the NFL in yards-per-attempt last season, and while that's a stat you can't count on year-to-year, big plays should remain a large part of the passing game with Chase and Higgins outside. Short of a rash of injuries to their skill position players (they aren't deep at receiver especially), Burrow should flirt with 40 touchdowns and 4,500 yards, numbers that squarely put him in the top-5 conversation.


 Matthew Stafford, LAR (Bye: 7)
10
Height: 6’2”   Weight: 232   DOB: 1988-02-07   Age: 34
College: Georgia   Draft: 2009 Round 1 (1) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2019DET8187 291 2,499 19 5 20 66 0 207.6 25.9
2020DET16339 528 4,084 26 10 29 112 0 319.4 20.0
2021LAR17404 601 4,886 41 17 32 43 0 412.6 24.3
2022 (Projected)LAR 383 580 4,522 33 14 25 52 0 363.3  

Outlook: Imprisoned in the NFL's version of Siberia, Stafford cobbled together some impressive seasons with the Lions on teams that never won a playoff game during his 12 years in Motown. In what was doubtless a tough scene for the "wins are a quarterback stat" crowd, Stafford helped guide the Rams to a Super Bowl championship in his first season in LA, quieting all the nonsensical talk that he wasn't clutch or talented enough to win come January.

Along the way the veteran formed a special relationship with Cooper Kupp, rivaling anything he and Calvin Johnson did during their time together. That combination helped Stafford to the second-best statistical showing of his career as he passed for 4,886 yards and 41 touchdowns; his 17 interceptions did tie then-rookie Trevor Lawrence for most in the NFL, but remember he was playing in Sean McVay's system for the first time and then also had to transition from Robert Woods, who blew out his knee, to Odell Beckham Jr. midway through the season.

Entering his second season in the McVay offense could be a boon for Stafford -- look at the leap Aaron Rodgers made under Matt LaFleur's similar attack in Year 2 -- though it's debatable if it'll be nearly as pass happy if Cam Akers can stay healthy in 2022. At 34, the former Bulldog should have some good years left. The problem with Stafford for fantasy owners, though, is that his modest running ability has dwindled to almost nothing (he ran for 43 yards and 0 TDs last year). Like Tom Brady, all of Stafford's fantasy value comes from his arm, leaving him along that QB1/QB2 borderline.


 Russell Wilson, DEN (Bye: 9)
11
Height: 5’11”   Weight: 206   DOB: 1988-11-29   Age: 34
College: Wisconsin   Draft: 2012 Round 3 (12) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2019SEA16341 516 4,110 31 5 75 342 3 381.7 23.9
2020SEA16384 558 4,212 40 13 83 513 2 433.9 27.1
2021SEA14259 400 3,113 25 6 43 183 2 286.0 20.4
2022 (Projected)DEN 336 516 3,976 29 9 60 275 2 354.3  

Outlook: While most of the offseason speculation about the Broncos acquiring a quarterback revolved around Aaron Rodgers, Denver finally found a partner in the Seattle Seahawks, dealing three players and five draft picks for nine-time Pro Bowl selection Russell Wilson. Although Wilson is coming off a down year, which included missing games due to injury for the first time in his career, he's light years ahead of what has been seen in Mile High since the retirement of Peyton Manning following the 2015 season.

How new head coach Nathaniel Hackett chooses to feature Wilson will be interesting, as for all his talent the veteran quarterback was often utilized as a glorified game manager during his Seattle run where Pete Carroll has long prioritized defense and controlling the clock with the run. The lone exception to this was the short-lived "Let Russ cook" phase, which came to an end when Wilson threw seven INTs over a four-game stretch in 2020 where the Seahawks went 1-3.

Hackett, who spent the last three years working with Rodgers as Green Bay's offensive coordinator, is likely to be more aggressive than Carroll was, but the Packers have quietly developed a solid running game so expect a fairly balanced approach. Plus, for as much potential as the Broncos have at their skill positions, there's no singular talent on par with DK Metcalf or anyone as proven as Tyler Lockett.

Entering his age-34 season, Wilson is a fringe top-10 fantasy quarterback with the potential to slide up into the top five and possibly down into QB2 range, depending on how much he's asked to do both as a runner and passer in an offense that's high on upside but light on proven commodities.


 Aaron Rodgers, GB (Bye: 14)
12
Height: 6’2”   Weight: 225   DOB: 1983-12-02   Age: 39
College: California   Draft: 2005 Round 1 (24) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2019GB16353 569 4,002 26 4 46 183 1 328.4 20.5
2020GB16372 526 4,299 48 5 38 149 3 439.9 27.5
2021GB16366 531 4,115 37 4 33 101 3 381.9 23.9
2022 (Projected)GB 368 541 4,111 32 5 38 121 2 357.7  

Outlook: Capping off a 12-month period filled with more drama than a daytime soap, Rodgers finally signed the mega-deal with the Packers that will likely be the last of his career. This comes off the heels of another disappointing playoff exit, and the loss of one of the best receivers in the NFL. While much can be said and written about the drama Rodgers has caused and endured over the last few years, the loss of Adams is either going to deal a mighty blow, or be another chip on his mighty shoulders.

Swapping Adams and Marquez Valdez-Scantling for a fading Sammy Watkins and a 2nd round rookie from North Dakota State doesn't exactly seem like a boon to Rodgers's fantasy stock. Though he might not have been as locked in with his star receiver off the field as we thought, there is no doubt about the magic they had on the field. Short term, losing Adams hasn't seemed to be a problem for Rodgers, as over the last two seasons he's continued to rake with a 3-0 record and a 9-0 touchdown to interception ratio in the games Adams has missed. But a look back to the 2019 season, when Adams missed six games paints a much bleaker picture. Despite attempting the 3rd most passes in a season in his career (569), his yardage (4,002) and passing touchdown total (26) were well below his career averages for a full season.

The loss of Adams is going to be felt the most in the red zone where this duo was nearly unstoppable, and thus I expect a modest touchdown regression, and decrease in overall efficiency. Rodgers can spin the ball like few others even though he's tickling his 40's, but that also means he offers much less value as a runner, as his scrambling numbers have declined several years in a row. His 101 yards on the ground last year are a career low since he became a starter in 2008. All-in-all Rodgers is still one of the best to ever sling it, but this season is going to be a true test. With less chemistry and reliability from his receivers, and with little upside as a runner, A-Rod falls to a low-end QB1.