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Mike Krueger | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


DFS Lineup Review - Week 6
10/15/18


Roster construction came fairly easy for me this week. The Buccaneers / Falcons game sporting two weak defenses along with its high over/under (57.5) offered an easy game to target. We had a relatively easy call at quarterback along with Todd Gurley who is still underpriced for his production. Fitting in the right wide receivers and how to handle the late-breaking news on Dalvin Cook and the Redskins receivers were keys to the week.

Here’s a look at my cash game Lineup for Fanduel in Week 6.

Quarterback

Matt Ryan ($8300) and Jameis Winston ($7400) were obvious considerations given the positive game environment. I briefly thought about Cam Newton ($8400) facing a Redskins defense that just got torched by Drew Brees but there really wasnít any reason to move away from Winston facing a depleted Falcons defense that had already given up 300-yard passing days to Newton, Brees, and Andy Dalton. Even with Winston making his first start of the season, he was a layup for cash games at his price. I did slightly prefer Ryan, and wouldíve moved up to him if I could find the extra $900 but I wasnít going to sacrifice other spots on my roster to do so.

Running Back

Given the injury situation across the league we had a lot of options at the running back position. I saw some other DFS analysts grumbling about this, but having a plethora of viable options at a position can lead weaker DFS players to make mistakes, which helps everyone whoís paying close attention. Yes, the right plays may not be as obvious but the more decisions that need to be made, the more experienced and well-informed DFS players should benefit in the long run.

The one easy decision this week was Toddy Gurley. The more difficult decisions came at the other two running back spots, assuming you were going to use three running backs on your roster. At the high end, Melvin Gordon ($8800) was my top non-Gurley play with Christian ($8400) McCaffrey and James Conner ($8200) under consideration. We had plethora of good options in the mid-range including Joe Mixon ($7500) who was back to assuming his bellcow role facing a porous Steelers defense in a home game with a total hovering around 50. T.J. Yeldon ($7100) was projected to see the bulk of running back touches in Jacksonville with Leonard Fournette ruled out, but he was slightly less appealing given the JAC/DAL game environment, especially since we had Tevin Coleman ($6300) as an option who typically sees around 17-20 touches when Devonta Freeman is on the shelf.

Once Isaiah Crowell was good to go, that removed Bilal Powell ($5800) from cash game consideration, but we did get some value open up at the low-end when Dalvin Cook was ruled out. I messed around with some Latavius Murray ($5600) lineups, who was in a good TD-expected spot, but didnít land on anything I was comfortable with. Coleman was the weakest RB in my lineup but the $700 savings from Coleman to Murray didnít allow me enough money to get up to Gordon. In the end I stuck with my original RB group as I didnít feel comfortable blowing up my roster late Sunday morning.

Wide Receiver

We all know that itís been awhile since Julio Jones ($8500) has scored a touchdown. However, you couldnít ignore Julioís history against the Bucs including his 12-253-2 blowup game last season at home against this same defense. While the TD-expectation was increased but shaky, it was difficult to see him getting less than 10 targets in this game and with the with upside being huge, I was happy to have him over other solid high-priced options like Adam Thielen ($8600) and DeAndre Hopkins ($9000). Julio was 70% percent owned in most double-ups.

Tyler Boyd ($6300) was a strong play given A.J. Green would be shadowed by Joe Haden who heís had some struggles with in the past and Boyd has carved out a solid role in this offense. He felt safer than other options in the mid-range like Calvin Ridley ($6700) who I liked quite a bit but didnít want two Falcons receivers in my cash lineup, and John Brown ($6300) but I preferred the better game environment for Boyd over Joe Flaccoís favorite target.

My ďdefenses and matchups donít matterĒ pick of the week was Emmanuel Sanders. We had a lot of good options in the mid-range at wide receiver and I was definitely out on a limb with Sanders who was 1-3 percent owned in the double-ups I participated in. Robert Woods ($7300) and Jarvis Landry ($6900) were strong considerations along with Chester Rogers ($5700) at the low-end who has seen 11 targets from Andrew Luck in each of last two games. I had a 2v2 debate here with Woods and Rogers vs. Sanders and Boyd. The latter had a safer TD projection and while I was concerned with the matchup for Sanders, the Rams pass-D doesnít have the bite we expected prior to the season and I was confident the Broncos would be playing from a trailing position most of this game.

Tight End

With no Rob Gronkowski, Travis Kelce, Zack Ertz and Jimmy Graham not on the main slate we were left with a bunch of ďmehĒ at the tight end position this week. I wasnít going to pay up for Eric Ebron ($6500) and his enormous amount of injuries and while I liked Jordan Reed ($6200) with a depleted Redskins receiving corps limiting the options for Alex Smith, I couldnít make his salary fit. I also like David Njoku ($5500) for the similar reasons but in the end, I was happy to go along with the crowd and take a shot at one of cheap tight ends. C.J. Uzomah ($5100), Vance McDonald ($4600) and Cameron Brate ($4500) were the three main considerations given my roster construction. With Boyd already locked into my roster and O.J. Howard declared active, McDonald became the play..

Flex

Until Fanduel gives us a decision, there is really no decision to be made. Gurley ($9500) is a lock in cash games.

Defense

The Browns ($3200) were one of my favorite defenses this week regardless of price. Their attacking style generates sacks and turnovers which is what weíre looking for at the position. Philip Rivers is very competent at getting the ball out quick to Keenan Allen and his running backs but heís very stationary, making him prone to sacks and is comfortable throwing picks in bunches. The Texans ($4700) were my top play of the week but there was no way I was fitting them into this lineup construction. I also considered Miami ($3500) at the low end but the extra $300 savings to Cleveland came in handy.

Results

Winston, Gurley, Julio and Boyd were all locks for me. Winston was the top scoring quarterback on the slate but I was cursing quite a bit at halftime of the early games, wishing I had used Latavius Murray over Tevin Coleman. Thankfully I got bailed out by Colemanís late touchdown. Moving forward, we canít bank on 17-20 touches for Coleman when Freeman is out given Ito Smithís growing usage. Emmanuel Sanders hitting was the obvious key to this lineup. Iíll need to re-watch the tape and check the data but it appears Sanders might have played a little more on the outside than normal with Courtland Sutton in the slot. Tyler Boyd ran hot with two TDs and Julio met expectations but once again couldnít find the endzone. All three of bargain tight ends were within a couple fantasy points of each other so having one over the other didnít offer any real advantage. The Browns-D was abused on the ground by Chargers. Hell, even Keenan Allen rushed for 44 yards on 4 carries as Gregg Williams couldnít figure out how to stop the end-arounds. In the end, Iíll live with a bad defensive pick if lets me get the players I want at the more predictable positions.

Itís nice be back in the green after a week in the red.