I invariably get pushback from a handful of readers. Some suggest that it’s incredibly difficult to find a suitable fill-in at QB on waivers when a late-round QB is overmatched by a quality defense. I genuinely have no idea what they’re talking about, as it’s never taken me more than a few minutes to find an unclaimed QB who is up against a soft defense & will finish in the top 15 at his position. You don’t need a great QB every single week to win fantasy leagues; you just need to be competitive at a position where the statistical difference between the 6th- and 12th-place finishers is often trivial. In my experience, it’s usually far more important to be dominant at the difference-making skill positions of RB, WR, & TE.

It’s also extremely difficult to project QB performances accurately, as those who took Deshaun Watson, Drew Brees, or Aaron Rodgers ahead of Patrick Mahomes, Matt Ryan, and Ben Roethlisberger were reminded in 2018--so I’m just not receptive to the idea of blowing early picks on QBs.

In my mega-league last year, I pulled the trigger on QB a little early because Andrew Luck was irresistible in the 9th. And this is where some of that reader pushback actually starts to make sense. As one critic wrote to me, “When you get to your championship game, there’s nothing as comforting as having a solid gold performer like Aaron Rodgers on your roster.”

I had no idea how prescient that remark was until I reached the championship in my mega-league last year. Andrew Luck was better than Rodgers on the season, but in the championship game, Luck had a ho-hum performance, whereas Rodgers absolutely destroyed the New York Jets in Week 16. That victory certainly justified my opponent’s decision to use an early pick on Rodgers (who is reliably an elite performer at his position when healthy).

So in this article, even though I would never consider paying as much for Rodgers as it takes to get him, I can’t reasonably argue that doing so is a mistake.

In fact, I’ll go ahead and give a pass to anyone who wants to take any of the top 5 QBs (according to Fantasy Football Calculator’s current ADP) in 2019. I won’t be tempted to take Patrick Mahomes at 2.11 or Andrew Luck at 4.05 or Aaron Rodgers at 4.11 or Deshaun Watson at 5.10 or Baker Mayfield at 5.12. In my opinion, the only one of the bunch who is likely to return value at his current price is Rodgers, but I can’t realistically foresee gambling on a QB before having at least 2-3 RBs + 2-3 WRs + 0-1 TEs (depending on league format). Even so, I can understand the allure of all 5 players. Mayfield seems like a heck of a gamble to me, but he’s certainly talented, and he could definitely light up the scoreboard with weapons like Odell Beckham, Jr., Jarvis Landry, and the underrated Antonio Calloway at his disposal. If you feel compelled to snag any of those 5 QBs, we can simply agree to disagree.

But if you spend a pick on any of the QBs going in the 6th and 7th rounds, I think you are objectively making a mistake.

Let’s start with my most extreme case, Matt Ryan, who finished as the No.2 QB in 2018. How can I say that his current price (6.05) is too steep?

To be clear, I’m not saying that it IS too steep. I’m saying that in light of Ryan’s streakiness from one season to the next, it’s too steep to be a gamble worth taking in my opinion. Ryan didn’t even finish in the top 12 at his position in 2017. Sure, he’s a talented guy with great weapons (Julio Jones and Devonta Freeman (both of whom have health question marks). But he has failed to deliver with comparable talent in the past. The RB, WR, and TE available just before Ryan are Tevin Coleman (6.04), Jarvis Landry (6.05), and Hunter Henry (6.05). Those picks are all as risky as Ryan in my opinion, but they have just as much upside at far more valuable positions. Give me Landry if he’s still available even though it’s anybody’s guess what OBJ’s impact on his productivity will be. The RB, WR, and TE going just after Ryan (all tied at 6.08) are Jordan Howard, Alshon Jeffery, and Evan Engram. My earlier evaluation applies concerning upside and risk, and once again, I would personally roll the dice on the receiver (Jeffery in this case). Ryan isn’t even tempting by comparison.

The other 6th-round QB is Drew Brees (6.09), who barely finished as a QB 1 in 2018 and turned in 3 consecutive disastrous performances in the fantasy playoffs (Weeks 13-15). I have tremendous respect for Brees’ talent and achievements, but if you don’t realize that he’s a bit past his prime, you’re either his mother or his wife. He will have great games in 2019, but he will also have multiple duds--and I can get those same results from turnover-prone Jameis Winson at 10.06. The 3 players going immediately after Brees are Tyler Boyd (6.10), Rashaad Penny (6.12), and Robby Anderson (7.02). The 3 immediately following Winston are the Jaguar and Charger defenses along with Trey Burton. If you would rather have Brees and a defense than Winston and Penny, I think you’re nuts.

The next QB by ADP is Russell Wilson (7.03), who just lost Doug Baldwin and also just got paid. He’s a great competitor, so perhaps it’s unfair to focus on the payday, but the Baldwin hit is incontestable. If you have your heart set on a mobile quarterback with a nice deep ball and an unproven receiving corps, why wouldn’t you take Josh Allen at 11.07 instead? It’s entirely possible that Wilson and Golden Tate (11.03) will outperform Allen and Will Fuller (7.06), but my money’s on the younger duo all day every day.

The other 7th-round QB is the oft-injured Carson Wentz (7.10), who continues to be touted as a running QB even though his rushing yardage in 2018 came to a grand total of...wait for it...93 yards. How about instead of going for a QB who is reputed to run, you grab one who actually runs, such as Lamar Jackson (12.04)? Jackson didn’t single-handedly win any fantasy games in 2018, but he was competitive at his position in Weeks 11-16 of his rookie season. If you have good reason to believe he won’t take a step forward in 2019, fine. My bet is that he will. If you would rather gamble on Wentz and the Dallas defense (12.05) than Jackson and Vance McDonald (7.07), we see the world differently.

Attentive readers will have noticed that although I provided late-round comps for Brees, Wilson, and Wentz (with Winston, Allen, and Jackson), I failed to mention a particular alternative to Ryan.

That’s because you probably would have stopped reading if I had begun by confessing that I vastly prefer Derek Carr at 14.03 to Ryan in the 6th. There’s a narrative that Carr simply hasn’t been the same since his injury in 2016. But how could he be with so many changes occurring around him? For me, he’s a poor man’s Matt Ryan at an irresistible bargain. Just as Ryan has one of the best WRs in the game in Jones, Carr now has the inimitable Antonio Brown. And just as Ryan has a potential top-10 RB in Freeman (if he’s truly healthy), Carr has a potential top-10 RB in Josh Jacobs (if the rookie’s skillset translates to the NFL as well as the Raiders hope). Both Ryan and Carr have proven that they are capable of outperforming and underperforming expectations, but I see more positive developments happening for Carr than for Ryan in 2019 (the biggest negative for Ryan being lingering concerns about Jones’ foot injury). The personnel changes on Oakland’s offensive line are no guarantee of success, but should result in a drastic improvement over a dismal 2018, and in light of Carr’s gaudiest measurable (his deep ball accuracy), the addition of deep threat specialist Tyrell Williams could realistically return huge dividends (especially if Brown draws as much coverage as one would expect). There’s no doubt in my mind that at their current ADP, Carr has a much better chance at returning value than Ryan in 2019, but I’ll go even further: I think there’s at least a 50% chance that Carr outperforms Ryan straight up on the season. If that upsets you, come at me (@GuyNAustin) on Twitter or in the comment section below or via email.