I’ve recently been profiling those QBs,
RBs, and WRs
I think will take a step back this coming season, so now it’s
time to identify their possible successors. We’re always on
shakier ground here--much smaller pool of potential dropouts than
replacements, after all--but I did bat a cool .500 last
summer. Just sayin’...
Note: All rankings are based on FFToday’s default standard
scoring.
A quick reminder of the Top 10 fantasy QBs from last season...
Winston has been showing
up on a lot of sleeper lists as we head into August drafts and
that usually sets off alarm bells in my head. Public dogs tend
to be big losers at the betting window. Here’s the thing, though:
While he’s being touted as a sneaky top 10 candidate by fantasy’s
fourth estate—I’ve seen him projected as high as 4th and we have
him as QB8 here at FFToday—Winston’s still not generating a ton
of interest in actual drafts. His current ADP is 10.06 in 12-team
standard leagues, making him the 14th QB selected on average.
I love sleepers when I can avoid paying that steep sleeper markup.
It’s not hard to see why Winston’s getting some love despite his
obvious warts (chronic immaturity, turnover machine). In 11 regular
season games last year after serving his four-game suspension,
the former Seminole averaged a stout 23.6 FPts/G. That’s the same
rate at which Drew
Brees scored fantasy points and Brees was a dubious PI call
away from playing for all the marbles against the Pats. If you
weren’t aware of Winston’s sneaky productivity, it’s likely because
he was outshined by the most surprising QB of 2018, his teammate
Ryan Fitzpatrick
(26.7 FPts/G).
Fitzy has since taken his talents, not to mention the league’s most
epic beard, to South Beach, leaving Winston the undisputed leader
of Bruce Arians’ revamped Tampa squad. The last time Arians and
his Kangol graced an NFL sideline, Arizona was an NFC player and
Carson Palmer, well into his 30s, was putting up the three most
productive years of his career. The Bucs lost some firepower in
DeSean Jackson,
sure, but still have enough weapons to engage in several high-scoring
affairs. Don’t sleep too long on Winston.
One QB’s loss is another’s
gain and word out of Eagles camp is that Wentz and his new deep
threat, the aforementioned DeSean Jackson, have quickly established
some deep ball chemistry this off-season. That could spell trouble
for the rest of the NFC East as it seems the Birds have been missing
a true home-run hitter since about 2014 when Jackson was unceremoniously
released by former coach Chip Kelly, allegedly for attitudinal
reasons.
That big SB LII ring on Doug Pederson’s finger means he won’t
likely tolerate any poisonous personalities, no matter how talented,
so I’m expecting Jackson to toe the line this second go-round
in Philly. If he does, the Eagles are suddenly graced with one
of the more dangerous and versatile pass-catching groups in the
entire league. Zach
Ertz and Dallas
Goedert are mismatches at the TE spot. Alshon
Jeffery, when not injured, can still move the chains with
the best of them and Nelson
Agholor is proving to be a reliable mid-range guy. Add Jackson
to blow the top off and rookie J.J. Arcega-Whiteside to shag those
red zone jump balls and you have the makings of another potent
Eagles offense.
The only real concern when it comes to Wentz, it appears, is his
health. He’s missed eight regular season games and, more famously,
the entire 2017 postseason to serious injuries (ACL and back). If
he can’t stay upright in 2019, a promising Philly season could go
down the tubes in a real hurry. Nate
Sudfeld, Wentz’s backup, suffered a broken wrist in last week’s
preseason action and now the Eagles are having to scramble for quarterbacking
depth (Kap, anyone?). If I’m Coach Pederson, I wrap the big ginger
in bubble wrap and tell him to sit tight until early September rolls
around.
I had every intention
of featuring a different Sooner Heisman winner when I started
prepping for this piece, but those Cardinals receivers are nothing
special and asking a rookie QB, even a very talented/elusive one,
to carry the offense behind an atrocious line is a big ask. Kyler
Murray’s Oklahoma predecessor, with a year of NFL action under
his belt and a scintillating new weapon, seems like a much safer
bet to make the leap into the QB Top 10 this season.
Mayfield isn’t the dynamic dual-threat his former understudy is,
but possesses a highly precise right wing, great quarterbacking
instincts, and the necessary grit to be a star in the NFL for
a long, long time. He threw for nearly 4,000 yards and averaged
almost two TD tosses per game as a rookie. He also led his squad
to a surprising 7-8-1 record, which could easily have been 9-7
or 10-6 with a couple breaks here or there. Mind you, he did all
this playing in Cleveland, where football dreams routinely go
to die and get buried in a common grave.
Nobody’s expecting a typical Browns campaign this year now that
Mayfield solves the longstanding QB problem and gets to throw
passes to that scintillating new weapon, Odell
Beckham Jr. I took some heat last summer for labeling OBJ
the best receiver on the planet, but I’m going back to the well
again this summer, especially since the receiver my detractors
were championing as best overall no longer plays for the Steelers
(I’m 99% sure they were from Pittsburgh) and, is performing his
diva act in Oakland. Adding Beckham to a young, talented Browns
offense has even the most pessimistic, PTSD-stricken Cleveland
fans looking forward to 2019. Grab the Bake Show.
