Who’s ready to throw some cold water on all those wildly optimistic
fantasy projections? I had to chuckle when I reviewed the latest
FFToday pre-season rankings, not because I found them unhelpful
or even improbable, but because I happen to know firsthand how rudely
the math treats projections year in and year out. Should this year’s
rankings prove completely accurate, only five total QBs, RBs, and
WRs would fail to reclaim their Top 10 status in the coming season.
Unfortunately, that’s ten fewer than have ACTUALLY failed
to do so every year since 2011 when I started writing this piece.
Math. Never personal, but rarely convenient. Let’s take a
look at who’s most likely to douse our pre-season positivity
this fall.
Note: All rankings are based on FFToday’s standard league
scoring.
Who Missed the Cut in 2018 (5/10): Le’Veon
Bell, Mark Ingram, LeSean McCoy, Leonard Fournette, & Jordan
Howard
In a bit of a twist, outside-the-lines absences were far more damaging
to the 2018 class of Top 10 running back dropouts than injury-related
absences. Of course, that’s to be expected when the RB2 decides
he’s gonna sit out a full 16 games in an effort to get paid. He
both did and didn’t (more guaranteed money, lower top-end value),
but it’s safe to say Le’Veon
Bell likely emboldened future grumblers willing to play contract
chicken (more on that in a bit).
Mark Ingram’s 4-game suspension for PEDs cost him 22 spots
in the running back rankings, a disappointing decline for the once
stalwart Saint. Suspensions always hurt but they don’t have
to devastate the bottom line (see Zeke Elliott in 2017). In Ingram’s
case, the prolonged absence opened the door for Alvin Kamara to
become New Orleans’ unquestioned meal ticket, relegating the
former Heisman winner to fringe fantasy status.
Jordan Howard was actually the most successful of the 2018 RB dropouts,
but his continued shortcomings as a receiver and unsightly efficiency
metrics nevertheless doomed him to a high teens ranking. We’ll
see if a change of scenery can get him back in the Top 10 this season,
but that 39th-ranked YPC ranking (out of 49 qualifiers) certainly
doesn’t inspire.
Our final two Top 10 tumblers, Leonard Fournette and LeSean McCoy,
were even less efficient than Howard, checking in at No.47 and No.48
amongst RB qualifiers in YPC, respectively. Fournette can blame
poor health and below-average line play while Shady only has the
latter to blame, really. He’s on the wrong side of 30 and
will likely end up sharing the Buffalo backfield this season with
Frank Gore...who’s on the wrong side of 35. What could possibly
go wrong up there in Orchard Park?
Most Likely Candidates to Fall from
the Top 10 This Year:
There isn’t a more polarizing figure
heading into the 2019 season than Los Angeles’ star
rock-toter.
Todd Gurley,
LAR: There isn’t a more polarizing figure heading into
the 2019 season than Los Angeles’ star rock-toter. Is he the under-25,
do-it-all sensation who’s led all running backs in fantasy production
two years running? Or is he the guy who suddenly, mysteriously disappeared
from the Rams’ game plan when the games started mattering most at
the end of last season? The answer may lie somewhere in between
this season and that likely isn’t enough to guarantee a Top 10 finish,
let alone a third straight No.1 overall ranking.
The only thing we know for certain about Gurley’s balky knee
is that it caused him to miss the final two regular season games
and then—after a solid Divisional Round outing against Dallas—rendered
him largely ineffectual in the NFC Championship and Super Bowl.
The rest is shrouded in mystery, though his trainer recently suggested
there’s an “arthritic component.” Uh-oh. The one
thing I know about arthritis is that it’s irreversible (I
too have arthritis in my knees) and that it isn’t conducive
to a long career in professional sports. One of Rip City’s
finest, Brandon Roy, was forced to prematurely retire at age 27
due to degenerative arthritis in his knees (sigh).
Even if Gurley’s knees have plenty of mileage left in them,
the Rams seem to be acting like they may not, They resigned backup
Malcolm Brown and then went and drafted Darrell Henderson in the
third round of April’s draft. Spending FA money and high draft
picks for backups at the position don’t scream confidence
in Gurley’s longer-term outlook. At the very least, we can
expect Sean McVay to significantly reduce his star back’s
workload, eroding the latter’s fantasy value. Add in a rejiggered/much
younger offensive line and I’m comfortable predicting a major
step back in 2019.
Ezekiel
Elliott, DAL or Melvin
Gordon, LAC: These two, within a couple weeks of one
another, opted to use Le’Veon Bell’s blueprint and demand more money
from their respective organizations. It’s hard to blame either if
the end result is fewer miles on the tires and more guaranteed bread,
but fantasy GMs could be heading into August drafts with an even
murkier RB picture than last summer, when Bell’s year-long strike
wasn’t a sure thing. Do we assume they’ll show up in time for the
regular season or, failing that, a couple weeks in? Or do we assume
they’re willing to go full sabbatical, a la Bell?
Elliott’s holdout is a little over a week old and, by all
accounts, hasn’t caused too much consternation in Big D. The
sides are talking, there’s talk of offers and counteroffers,
and the Cowboys have an owner who’s unorthodox enough to throw
the league’s richest RB contract Elliott’s way. On the
other hand, the Cowboys have an owner who’s unorthodox enough
to also swing a blockbuster deal and make the problem go away entirely
(so he can lock down Dak Prescott and Amari Cooper). This one bears
watching, though if all gets resolved by September, there’s
no reason to think Zeke won’t end up in the Top 10 by season’s
end.
I’ll hedge with Gordon, whose situation out in sunny San D
is a bit cloudier. He’s already on record as saying he’ll
sit and force a trade and the sides seem to be nowhere close thus
far ($2-$3 million per year apart). Then, Philip Rivers threw some
shade Gordon’s way, saying the Bolts’ RB corp is a “deep
position.” Hmmm. Money is one thing, but fractured interpersonal
relationships can be difficult to repair. Ask Big Ben. It’s
time to worry about Gordon.
Kareem Hunt,
CLE: Don’t you roll your eyes at me. We all know Hunt isn’t
going Top 10’ing this season, not when he has to sit out the entire
first half of the year for violating the league’s personal conduct
policy. What’s more interesting to me, and worth talking about in
early August, is how to treat Hunt in upcoming drafts. Is he worth
a precious draft slot when you’re guaranteed to get zero points
out of him until Week 9? Or can he be stealthily, safely stashed
until late October/early November when he’s eligible to suit up
for the Brownies and, in theory, capable of energizing your squad
for a fantasy stretch run?
Perhaps the more interesting question here is actually what to do
with Nick Chubb. It’s not difficult to envision a scenario
where Chubb kills it through the first half of the season, gets
banged up about midway through, and ends up sharing totes the second
half of the season with the much fresher and (probably) more talented
Hunt. It’s not even that difficult to envision it playing
out less favorably for Chubb: He suffers the dreaded sophomore slump
and gets relegated to second fiddle entirely once Hunt gains his
sea legs in Week 10 or 11. Then, of course, there’s also the
possibility that Chubb renders his new backfield mate an afterthought
altogether by killing it all first half AND staying healthy. Kareem
who?
I can’t remember heading into a draft season with so many questions
at the RB position, possibly even more questions than we have answers.
Gurley, Elliott, Gordon, Chubb, Hunt. Most, if not all, of these
guys will force us to make some difficult decisions come draft day,
and with incomplete information at best. Buckle up.
