Every year, it takes me longer and longer to write the introductory
paragraph for this series. That’s partially because I’m
slowing down some (hit the big 5-0 a while back), partially because
I’m distracted (summertime!), but mostly because there are
only so many ways to say the exact same thing over and over and
over again. In its most basic form, that thing is this: The players
who won you fantasy championships last year aren’t very likely
to do so this year. That’s it. That’s the only point
I’m ever trying to make and the rest—who, specifically,
is most likely to derail your championship dreams this season—is
just details. I’ll be back next summer to say the exact same
thing a slightly different way, but in the meantime, here are those
details, the most likely Top 10 dropouts for 2022.
Note: All rankings are based on FFToday’s
Non-PPR league scoring.
Who Missed the Cut in 2020 (4/10): C. Ridley, A. Thielen, D.
Hopkins, & A. Brown
Ready for some fun with numbers, pre-algebra edition? The mean,
or average, number of Top 10 WR dropouts since 2010 is now precisely
6.0. However, the median (middle) is 6.5 and the mode (most common)
is 7.0. Put another way, three years of relatively low dropout rates
the past decade-plus (2013, 2018, and last year) are the only thing
keeping the wide receiver ranks from running back-like attrition
(6.4, 6.5, and 8.0, respectively).
Calvin Ridley was widely expected to make a stratospheric rise when
the Falcons cut ties with their most productive WR ever, Julio Jones,
following the 2020 campaign. Alas, the blossoming star struggled
with mental health issues early last year, missed 12 games as a
result, and will now miss all of 2022 as he sits out a lengthy suspension
for gambling.
Ridley’s fellow 2021 dropouts were a lot more productive,
but only relatively so. Adam Thielen (WR27) lost four games to a
high ankle sprain and is now a clear second fiddle to Justin Jefferson
in Minneapolis, though he managed to notch as many TD receptions
as his young teammate. DeAndre Hopkins (WR39) missed by far the
most games he’d ever missed in nine NFL seasons (6), suffering
through a balky hamstring and then a torn MCL in Week 14. Unfortunately,
like Ridley, D-Hop is suspended to start this season, though he’s
eligible to return in Week 7. Guess this gives him more time to
recuperate from knee surgery?
The final WR dropout of 2021’s small class, A.J. Brown (WR32),
ended up on injured reserve with a chest issue late in the season,
which ultimately cost him four games of action. More troubling,
however, was the fact he failed to tally even five fantasy points
half the time he was active. Brown hopes to put that injury-plagued,
boom-or-bust season behind him as he moves to the City of Brotherly
Love in 2022.
Most Likely Candidates to Fall from the Top 10 This Year:
Deebo Samuel,
SF: Dynasty GMs lucky enough to have landed Deebo a couple
years back must’ve been pinching themselves after last year’s spectacular
breakout, envisioning many more years of run-receive greatness.
Then came the off-season and, with it, a diabolical twist. Seems
Mr. Samuel wasn’t so fond of the Swiss army knife role Kyle Shanahan
had dreamed up for him and for which his fantasy employers adored,
going so far as to request a trade in April. Wait, what? The breakout
star isn’t going to be on the move this year (the 49ers are flat
unwilling to deal him) but doesn’t seem like to sign a long-term
extension either, not without some assurances he won’t get brutalized
as a WR playing too much RB.
To be fair, even if Samuel’s rushing stats were completely
scrubbed from his 2021 numbers, he’d have STILL been a Top
10 WR. That’s how amazing the former Gamecock was last season,
almost vaulting his squad to an eighth Super Bowl appearance. Thus,
even if the San Fran brass did cave to his demands and emasculate
him some, there’s no guarantee he’d freefall out of
the Top 10. Then again….
The Niners just this week gave permission to Jimmy G’s agents
to pursue a trade, meaning the Trey Lance era begins in earnest
this season, ready or not. There are few concerns about Lance’s
physical gifts, but many more about his experience at the position
(19 total starts since HS) and general polish as a passer (not there
yet). If I had to guess—and it’s an educated guess,
at best—Lance could end up running the ball a lot more than
Samuel while still trying to forge a connection with his new No.1
target. Expect growing pains, plenty of misconnected flights, and
a different Deebo in 2022.
Tyreek Hill,
MIA: Samuel publicly grumbled about his role but wasn’t
able to force a trade. Tyreek Hill privately grumbled about his
role and, in the leagues’ most shocking off-season deal, ended up
getting shipped to Miami. The Fish gave up a boatload of draft picks
(1st, 2nd, and two 4ths in 2022 plus a 2023 6th-rounder) to acquire
the fastest man in pads and then proceeded to ink him to a four-year,
$120M contract extension ($72.2M guaranteed), making him the highest-paid
wideout in the game and the centerpiece of Mike McDaniel’s new Dolphins
offense.
Hill’s new QB, Tua Tagovailoa, is a more proven commodity
than San Fran’s new man, for sure, but the dropoff from Patrick Mahomes to Tua is much more precipitous than the dropoff from Jimmy Garoppolo to Trey IMHO. Granted, Hill started off catching passes
from Alex Smith, whose career average yards gained per attempt (6.9)
more closely resembles Tagovailoa’s (6.6) than Mahomes’
(8.1). However, pairing a popgun QB with the league’s most
lethal downfield weapon makes for an odd marriage, especially considering
the price Miami paid to arrange it.
Hill is saying all the right things about his new playmate but talk
is cheap in the summertime. What we’ll need to see come September
is a young QB making the types of improvements we expect to see
from a third-year pro drafted fifth overall and then gifted next-level
weapons on the perimeter (Hill and Jaylen Waddle). It doesn’t
help that Tagovailoa will always be compared to the guy drafted
immediately after him in the 2020 draft, Justin Herbert. Can you
imagine Herbie launching rockets to Cheetah down at Hard Rock? Hoo
boy! Stuff of dreams right there. Back in the real world, expect
a modest statistical dip from Tyreek this year.
DK Metcalf,
SEA: I’m all about the themes, folks, so it should come
as no surprise our final projected Top 10 dropout will also be working
with a new quarterback in 2022. And if you thought the dropoff from
Jimmy G to Trey Lance or Pat Mahomes to Tua Tagovailoa was steep…I
encourage you to review the combined career stats for Drew
Lock and Geno
Smith, one of whom (barring a training camp trade) will start
the season under center for Seattle.
When the Seahawks cut ties with Russell Wilson in March, the presumption
was that they’d go after a QB prospect in the draft or a starter-quality
replacement in the free agent market. Yeah, not so much. Instead,
Seattle stood pat with Smith, last year’s QB2, and one of
the many assets received from the Broncos in return for Wilson,
the highly erratic Lock. Yuck. Here’s what Pete Carroll had
to say about the two men competing for Wilson’s old job after
voluntary OTAs back in early June: “Man, they’ve been
impressive. They’ve been really impressive…they have
just been solid throughout.” Riiiiight, Coach.
Even IF Smith or Lock shocks the football world and manages to keep
the Seahawks’ ship afloat, it’s difficult to imagine
a dynamic passing game being the primary reason why. This has as
much to do with Carroll’s stubborn conservatism as it does
with his QBs’ obvious limitations. Despite being a nine-time
Pro Bowler in ten seasons with Seattle, Wilson never once cracked
the Top 5 in passing attempts and was routinely in the bottom half
of the league in that category. Metcalf is the most freakishly talented
player in the league (gigantic, strong, and fast) and will deserve
that rumored contract extension when he gets it. Unfortunately,
things are falling apart around him. No bid.
