This is my third year reviewing the July Mock. With every year
of experience playing this game that we love, I learn more. I
learn new things; new concepts; new ideas. I learn some things
I didn’t even know were there to learn. But one thing that’s remained
constant over the years is the value and purpose of mock drafts.
I wrote the following two paragraphs back in 2015 as an intro
- here they are again to get your mind focused on the information
to come.
I once had a friend ask me what the point of a mock draft is.
Much of the excitement and enjoyment of a draft is eyeing that
player you want and actually being able to draft and root for
him all season. A mock is not real. You don’t actually own any
of those players. And it’s not like your actual drafts will mimic
your mock drafts. This attitude made me realize that many people
do not understand the underlying purpose of mocks – to educate
you.
This article is going to discuss one
mock conducted in July, roughly six weeks before the heart
of draft season. A lot is going to change between now and then.
Player perception will change. Player value will change. ADPs
will rise and fall. Players will get injured. Your actual draft
will look much different than this mock that I am about to discuss.
So what’s the point of discussing it at all? This may be repetitive
to some, if not most of you, but it’s important to be reminded
why we conduct mock drafts. When reviewing this particular mock
and reading this article, remember to focus on the concepts; focus
on the why, not the what, or the who. Let’s get to it.
1. The return of running backs to
prominence.
In last year’s mock
and in most actual drafts, the first three picks were wide receivers.
This year, the consensus is David
Johnson and Le’Veon
Bell, in some order as the top two, with Ezekiel
Elliott third. Similar to last year, I still think there is
a decided advantage in acquiring an elite RB early and the fact
that there were more RBs (13) than WRs (11) taken in the first
two rounds demonstrates that fantasy owners understand this. We
are now two years removed from the great WR boom of 2015 and heading
towards what I believe will be the new trend for the foreseeable
future – the equalizing of value between RBs and WRs as a whole.
The ugliness we saw last year from the
tight end position is pushing the entire group closer together.
2. The gap between Gronk and everyone
else at the TE position has shrunk.
I don’t think anyone would refute the notion that Rob Gronkowski
is still the cream of the crop when it comes to TEs, but at 3.07,
it’s clear that the injuries have finally started to take
a toll on his value. Travis Kelce was taken just two picks after
Gronk. While I understand the concern, nothing has really changed
about Gronkowski. He is still the best TE in football; probably
the best TE of all time. He’s the same guy he’s always
been - an elite WR1 playing the TE position with a hefty injury
risk. I’d consider Gronk as early as the middle of the 2nd
round. It comes down to how willing you are to gamble. If Gronk
plays 12 games, then Iceman got an absolute steal in the middle
of the 3rd round.
3. This group of mockers was quite disciplined
in their treatment of rookies.
Leonard
Fournette was the first rookie taken, as he should be, in the
middle of the 2nd round. The next rookie was Christian
McCaffrey and he wasn’t taken until the middle of the 4th round,
which is later than his late-3rd/early-4th round ADP. Joe
Mixon typically goes right next to McCaffrey, but he didn’t
go until round 5. While there are certainly more rookies going in
higher rounds than last year (after Zeke, the next rookie taken
was Corey
Coleman all the way in the 7th round), they mostly went in reasonable
spots. I still think the 6th round is aggressive for Dalvin
Cook, but it’s not like he’s going in a spot where you can’t
recover when he inevitably fails in his three-way timeshare behind
the Vikings’ weak offensive line. In total, there were six rookies
taken in the single-digit rounds and they were all running backs.
4. Iceman really likes to gamble.
He led off his draft with an aggressive seventh overall selection
of Devonta Freeman. I say aggressive because I just can’t
get behind spending a mid-first round pick on a player in a split
backfield. I want my first round picks to have secure workloads
with no real risk of being usurped by an incredibly talented backup.
He supported his Freeman pick with two rookies in Fournette and
McCaffrey. In between those two, he took Gronk, which I think
was a great pick in a vacuum, but not when combined with the uncertainty
of the other players on his roster. Then he went with Edelman,
who I also like, but not as a team’s WR1 (although technically
that’s Gronk) and Martavis Bryant, which is always a gamble
given his affinity for…”substances.” If he hits
on everyone, this team could run away with the league. But with
two rookies and an oft-injured TE as three of his first five picks,
I think Iceman targeted too much ceiling and not enough floor.
5. Matt Mueller went Zero-RB.
I am not a Zero-RB guy, but part of the reason it doesn’t
work is because too many people do it. If you’re the only
one employing the strategy, then it works…unless you completely
botch it…like Matt did (Sorry Matt). You absolutely nailed
the early portion. A.J. Green and T.Y. Hilton is an ideal start
and Travis Kelce is fine (I would’ve taken Jordan Reed).
Davante Adams next. You’ve done it. You have two WR1s, a
high-end WR2, and a top three TE. Then, it all falls apart. I
like Jamison Crowder, but a fourth WR is not the move there. You
should’ve pulled the trigger on an RB, specifically Tevin Coleman or Bilal Powell. Instead, you drafted a player who is
never starting for you outside of bye weeks and without a Flex,
there’s no RB he could replace in a bind.
Your RB1 ended up being Mark Ingram suggesting you think Adrian Peterson is done and you’re willing to wager a 6th round
pick on that. You did take Alvin Kamara later on to cover your
bases, but anchoring your RB corps, even in a Zero-RB strategy,
with a guy in a three-headed backfield is questionable. Then you
followed that up with a player (Mike Gillislee) in a four-headed
backfield. I’ll get to that group in a bit.
Your strategy was clear – control the Patriots and Saints
backfields. The problem with that plan is you could get it completely
wrong or you could get it too right and have all of your backs
be serviceable, but none truly reliable. I actually like the idea
of drafting an entire team’s backfield in a Zero-RB approach,
but it’s probably better to go after backfields with two
guys as opposed to three. I just don’t think your WRs are
going to be able to carry your RBs unless things go very right.
6. An unfathomable 10 Patriots were
drafted, including the entire backfield.
I’ll admit that I have no intention of looking through the
history of all drafts and figuring out if this really is a record,
but I think it’s the most of all time from a single team.
It goes without saying that the odds all ten of them being fantasy
relevant is a solid 0%, but I’m pretty confident that at
least seven of them will be. Brady, Cooks, and Gronk are the three
big ones. Edelman strikes me as undervalued in the 5th round.
But let’s talk about the running backs. Credit to the
participants in this mock for drafting them in the correct order
despite their ADPs being out of whack. Gillislee (ADP 6.01) is
rightfully the first one taken as he’s expected to be the
LeGarrette Blount replacement. For some reason, James White (ADP
9.12) is typically next according to ADP followed by Dion Lewis
(ADP 13.10). That’s just not correct. Rex Burkhead (ADP
14.02) is an elite pass catcher with an 85% catch rate and excellent
route running skills. He’s great in pass protection, can
play the slot and can run between the tackles. I expect Burkhead
to form somewhat of a committee with Gillislee as well as be the
primary passing down back.
This James White overreaction has to stop. He had one monster
game in the Super Bowl that was a result of a completely anomalous
position the Patriots found themselves in. He’s not going
to see anywhere near that type of volume in a single game this
season. White will also play on passing downs and I expect to
see him out there with Burkhead at times, but his fantasy value
is going to be incredibly volatile on a week-to-week basis. I
still like him more than Dion Lewis, who rightfully went last
of the bunch in this mock. Ultimately, Lewis will probably make
the team, but the fact that it’s even a question tells you
all you need to know about how the Patriots view him. I am a big
Burkhead supporter and think fantasy owners should target him
as one of the last position players drafted.
7. My dislike for the 3rd round RBs
was supported by this mock.
In my mocking experiences thus far, I have never taken an RB in
the 3rd round. In this mock, Marshawn Lynch was the only RB selected
and it won’t surprise me to see his ADP tumble if his preseason
action exposes him for being out of shape. The lack of 3rd round
RBs signals a priority should be placed on taking a RB in the
first two rounds or accepting the fact that you’re probably
riding the Zero-RB train, whether you want to or not.
8. The Late-Round-QB approach has
really taken hold.
We are many years away from the infamous quarterback boom of 2011.
Usually there’s at least one person who grabs a QB in the
2nd round. Not here. Aaron Rodgers didn’t go until round
3 and by the end of round 5, only three QBs had been drafted.
By the end of the 9th round, just about every team had taken a
QB. Normally, you’ll find a couple of holdouts that really
wait until the double-digit rounds but most teams had full starting
lineups at the skill positions as well as a couple bench players
before taking a QB. I endorse the Rodgers/Brady round 3 selection
this year, but that has more to do with my aversion to the players
typically going in round 3 than anything else. If I don’t
take the plunge in round 3, however, I will wait until at least
round 8, if not later, as was generally the case in this mock.
9. For the second year in a row, the
49ers saw the fewest players drafted with three...
...which is actually a step forward after only two were
drafted last year. They’re tied with the Rams for most the
anemic offense. Both the Rams and 49ers have an incredibly talented
RB trapped in an awful situation. Todd Gurley typically goes at
the 2/3 turn while Carlos Hyde fell all the way to the middle
of the 5th round, which is pretty ridiculous after he finished
as the PPR RB12 last season. Hyde is the most talented player
on the 49ers and it’s not even close. I am not buying any
of this Joe Williams nonsense. Hyde should be going late round
3. After the RBs, the 49ers have an underrated WR in Pierre Garcon,
who is poised to see as many targets as he can handle as the team’s
only competent receiver. Garcon is good value in the 7th round.
On the Rams’ side, neither Robert Woods nor Tavon Austin
interest me that much, but they both carry double-digit round
price tags, which minimizes the risk.
10. The draft position of four particular
players...
RB Isaiah
Crowell: I really have nothing against Crowell. Don’t
hate him. Don’t love him. Would take him in the correct spot.
I’m quite confident that the correct spot is not the middle of
the 2nd round as the RB11. For Crowell to justify this draft position,
he has to be an RB1. How much higher than RB11 can he plausibly
get? Are you really that confident Crowell is going to be better
than say Danny
Woodhead or Theo
Riddick? Just think about this for a second. It’s Week 1 and
I come at you with this trade offer: I’ll give you Aaron
Rodgers or Rob
Gronkowski for Isaiah Crowell. You’re really turning that
down? In the middle of the 2nd round, you have to take someone
with both a higher floor and higher ceiling than the Cleveland
Browns starting running back.
WR Doug
Baldwin: Last year I had Tyler
Lockett on this list because I wasn’t a full believer in Baldwin.
Oh how things change. Baldwin is here because he went in the middle
of the 3rd round as the WR14. What does this guy have to do to
get the WR1 respect he deserves? Clearly the answer isn’t finish
as a WR1 for two-straight seasons because he’s done that. Clearly
the answer isn’t to be tied to an elite young QB on an offense
that struggles to run the ball. Clearly the answer isn’t to be
an elite pass catcher with one of the highest catch percentages
and lowest drop rates in the league. Baldwin averaged 2.03 fantasy
points per target last year, which was 10th in the league. How
in the world can anyone justify DeAndre
Hopkins, Demaryius
Thomas, and Amari
Cooper ahead of Baldwin?
RB Lamar
Miller: I featured him in my overvalued/undervalued
series last year. He finished as the RB17 by average points per
game. He was taken as the RB12 in this mock. I just don’t get
the love. Everything I said about him last year applies this year.
Miller saw increased volume and decreased efficiency. Granted
he was playing with the worst QB in the league, but we knew the
situation going in. The Texans’ QB situation is improved, but
by how much remains to be seen. Tom
Savage can’t possibly be worse than Brock
Osweiler, but if he’s only marginally better, that’s not going
to make things any easier for Miller. Without the threat to stretch
the field, which should be there since they have DeAndre Hopkins,
teams can focus on Miller and stopping the very predictable and
simplistic offensive play calls. I see a similar finish for Miller
this year, which makes him overvalued in the 2nd round.
RB Danny
Woodhead: Round 7 is not high enough for the guy I
think will soak up a lot of Dennis
Pitta’s vacated targets. Woodhead is an elite pass catcher
and Joe
Flacco loves to throw to his running backs. He’s been waiting
for his Ray
Rice replacement and here he is. Woodhead may be 32, but his
injuries have limited the wear and tear on his body. He’s certainly
a risk to get hurt again, but when he was last seen healthy, all
he was doing was finishing as a top three PPR running back in
2015. Woodhead is actually quite productive in the red zone as
well, making him a legitimate threat for not only red zone opportunities,
but specifically goal line carries. Woodhead could return 4th
round value or better. The only problem is his ADP is rapidly
rising. I expect it to settle in around late-four/early-five.
On a final note, remember that every mock is different. Take a
look at the June mock compared
to this one and you’ll see how very different they are.
You can and should try different strategies and approaches. See
what works and what does not. See what you like and what you do
not like. Even if you disagree with everything I’ve written,
you can still learn from it. I hope reading this article helps
you as much as writing it helped me.
