At the rate players are dropping this preseason, it may be next to impossible to put together any kind of draft board that is relevant for more than a day, much less a week. (Thankfully, I’ll get three shots at this…)

Injuries had already claimed Percy Harvin, Jeremy Maclin, Danario Alexander and Dennis Pitta prior to end of last weekend – four players that almost certainly would have found their way inside the top 100 or so players in just about every draft. On Monday, Jamaal Charles gave everyone a scare when he suffered what is being called a “foot strain”. Later that same night, the San Diego Chargers took their second hit at the receiver position in a week when Malcom Floyd got tangled up with CB Shareece Wright in practice. An MRI revealed he sprained his right knee, which is often the initial diagnosis when a player tears his ACL. While Floyd’s potential season-ending injury doesn’t mean much to the average fantasy owner, any potential long-term injury to Charles sure does. The point is that days like Monday serve as a reminder the NFL’s news cycle rarely ever stops, which illustrates the importance of owners using tools such as Twitter during a draft to ensure they are as informed as every other owner in the draft room.

I offer my sympathies to any and all owners that have already participated in drafts in which they drafted one or more of the aforementioned players, but avoiding the first wave of injuries and gaining clarity on position battles are the main reasons why it is smart to wait at least another week or two to draft. My first draft of consequence takes place on Thursday when I participate in an experts’ auction draft, but I’ve always felt it is at least one week too early every season. With that said, I will not complain about free “practice” against industry experts at any point of the preseason using the method of drafting I will be utilizing for some of my big money leagues. It’s another advantage I’ll have over the rest of my competition in a couple of weeks and, just as importantly, I have a title to defend.

Loyal readers already know my stance on the importance of value when it comes to drafting, but most fantasy analysts fail to quantify it. As it relates to my Big Boards, I define "value" using the VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) concept for a two-RB, three-WR league, which essentially allows me to compare apples and oranges. At QB and TE, the value reflects the standard deviation from the 12th-ranked player at the position – the last starting-caliber player at the position. At RB, the value reflects the standard deviation from the 24th-ranked player at the position and, at WR, the 36th-ranked player. As I have mentioned many times before over the years, "value" in drafting is key. Need has to outweigh value on occasion, but for the most part, it can't hurt to take the best player left on the board. Understanding the delicate balance of realizing a player is too good to pass up and knowing exactly when the last spot in your likely Week 1 starting lineup needs to be filled often separates the great drafters from the very good ones.

Beyond using “value” to ease the process of setting up a draft board, analyzing the playoff matchups and common sense has to enter into the conversation as well. A perfect example of the latter is Calvin Johnson, whose PPR value should make him the top player on my board. While Johnson certainly brings a huge advantage to his fantasy teams almost every week, no number cannot account for the economic principle of “opportunity cost” – the loss of potential gain from other alternatives when one alternative is chosen – in real-time when owners pass on an elite running back to draft Johnson. A simple number value also cannot account for the drastic falloff in value at running back after the established top options are drafted, usually by the end of the first round. Smart drafting also involves supply versus demand. Every year, there are not nearly enough quality running backs to occupy 24 starting spots in 12-team leagues, but there are usually at least 36 receivers that are worthy starters.

Before I get to the boards, I would like to remind readers about a few key points about the Big Boards:

1) They are not going to look like many other draft boards you see. My method of evaluating fantasy players relies heavily on projected consistency and matchups, not overall fantasy point total projections. All too often, fantasy owners and even the so-called "experts" get hung up by the final numbers. Don't get me wrong, I want all my players to have 300+ points at the end of the season. But as the old saying goes, "It's not about the destination, it's about the journey"; if my RB1 gives me seven spectacular performances along with six duds during the regular season, there's a fairly decent chance I may end up 7-6. I don’t want that and neither should you.

2) I will push a player down my board if feel he is a health risk or if I simply don’t/can’t trust him. I will put more stock into this area in 2013 than I ever have. If you take the time to break down each position I provide below, you will notice that I don’t follow the point totals or averages to a tee. (Think of the average and value I provide for each player as a starting point for my rankings.) Outside of trust issues, I will push a player down my board – despite a higher average or overall point total – if I believe he will simply be less consistent throughout the season or if his playoff schedule appears treacherous.

3) Much like last season, I want to provide readers with a clear risk sign. If a player is a moderate risk – be it due to holdout, injury, off-field, etc. – you will see a next his name. If I feel a player is a severe risk, your will see a next to his name. While I feel like I have accounted for each player’s “risk” with their spot on the Big Board, you may be more or less inclined to deal with that risk than I am. This is just another way of helping you take a look at the board and quickly identifying which players stand a good chance to frustrate you at some point this season.

Note: At least for this first set of Big Boards, I have chosen to stop at 150 players. Next week, I will add the kickers and defenses while also expanding the number of ranked players. In the final set of Big Boards in two weeks, I will add even more players.

Let’s revisit the color-coding system before we start:

Red – A very difficult matchup. For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be used in fantasy that week. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like a RB2).

Yellow – Keep expectations fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White – Basically, this matchup is one that could go either way. In some cases, I just don’t feel like I have a good feel yet for this defense. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.

Green – It doesn’t get much better than this. For non-elite players, the stage is basically set for said player to exploit the matchup. For the elite player, this matchup should produce special numbers..

Here is the scoring system that I used to rank the players in the PPR format:

One final note: Over the next week, I will be “quality controlling” my projections (basically double-checking my numbers, such as not having one defense projected to intercept 40 passes while another has just five), so this week’s Big Boards may look dramatically different – particularly at the bottom – in two weeks than they currently do. As with all things that are worth doing, this process takes time and needs to be constantly revised as more information about depth charts and injuries becomes available. What I can assure you is that my final set of Big Boards will be one of the most comprehensive draft-day tools anyone will have at their disposal.

PPR Big Board - Top 150 OVR PR Pos Player Risk Tm Age Value FPts/G FPts 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 1 1 RB Doug Martin TB 24 5.77 22.1 331.0 2 2 RB Jamaal Charles KC 26 5.28 21.4 320.5 3 3 RB Adrian Peterson MIN 28 5.27 21.3 277.5 4 4 RB C.J. Spiller BUF 26 5.14 21.2 317.5 5 5 RB Arian Foster HOU 27 5.02 21.0 315.0 6 6 RB Trent Richardson CLE 23 4.29 20.0 299.5 7 1 WR Calvin Johnson DET 27 6.06 21.3 320.0 8 7 RB Ray Rice BAL 26 4.20 19.8 297.5 9 8 RB Matt Forte CHI 27 4.38 20.1 301.5 10 9 RB Alfred Morris WAS 24 2.31 17.2 257.5 11 10 RB Marshawn Lynch SEA 27 2.17 17.0 254.5 12 1 TE Jimmy Graham NO 26 5.23 18.6 278.5 13 11 RB LeSean McCoy PHI 25 3.21 18.4 276.5 14 1 QB Aaron Rodgers GB 29 4.47 27.3 409.1 15 12 RB Steven Jackson ATL 30 3.75 19.2 288.0 16 2 WR Brandon Marshall CHI 29 4.95 19.8 296.5 17 3 WR Dez Bryant DAL 24 4.76 19.5 292.5 18 4 WR Julio Jones ATL 24 4.53 19.2 287.5 19 5 WR A.J. Green CIN 25 4.03 18.5 277.0 20 13 RB Chris Johnson TEN 27 3.11 18.3 274.5 21 6 WR Larry Fitzgerald ARI 30 4.50 19.1 287.0 22 7 WR Demaryius Thomas DEN 25 4.43 19.0 285.5 23 14 RB Darren Sproles NO 30 2.55 17.5 262.5 24 15 RB Reggie Bush DET 28 2.52 17.5 244.5 25 2 QB Drew Brees NO 34 3.88 26.4 396.5 26 3 QB Peyton Manning DEN 37 3.79 26.3 394.5 27 8 WR Roddy White ATL 31 3.77 18.1 271.5 28 9 WR Victor Cruz NYG 26 3.18 17.3 259.0 29 10 WR Dwayne Bowe KC 28 3.49 17.7 265.5 30 11 WR Andre Johnson HOU 32 3.70 18.0 270.0 31 12 WR Randall Cobb GB 23 2.57 16.4 246.0 32 16 RB Le’Veon Bell PIT 21 1.46 16.0 239.5 33 17 RB Stevan Ridley NE 24 0.21 14.2 213.0 34 18 RB DeMarco Murray DAL 25 2.46 17.4 208.5 35 4 QB Matt Ryan ATL 28 2.90 25.0 375.7 36 5 QB Cam Newton CAR 24 2.01 23.8 356.8 37 19 RB Maurice Jones-Drew JAC 28 0.24 14.2 213.5 38 13 WR Eric Decker DEN 26 3.28 17.4 261.0 39 14 WR Vincent Jackson TB 30 2.57 16.4 246.0 40 20 RB Lamar Miller MIA 22 0.78 15.0 225.0 41 15 WR Jordy Nelson GB 28 2.36 16.1 241.5 42 2 TE Rob Gronkowski NE 24 2.65 14.9 164.0 43 16 WR Danny Amendola NE 27 3.44 17.6 211.5 44 17 WR Hakeem Nicks NYG 25 2.04 15.7 203.5 45 21 RB Frank Gore SF 30 0.00 13.9 208.5 46 22 RB David Wilson NYG 22 0.48 13.2 185.0 47 23 RB Darren McFadden OAK 26 1.40 15.9 190.5 48 6 QB Matthew Stafford DET 25 1.48 23.0 345.7 49 18 WR Steve Smith CAR 34 2.00 15.6 234.0 50 19 WR Marques Colston NO 30 1.70 15.2 227.5 51 20 WR Wes Welker DEN 32 1.58 15.0 225.0 52 3 TE Tony Gonzalez ATL 37 2.92 15.3 229.5 53 4 TE Jason Witten DAL 31 2.00 14.0 210.0 54 7 QB Andrew Luck IND 23 1.72 23.4 350.7 55 8 QB Robert Griffin III WAS 23 1.31 22.8 319.1 56 9 QB Colin Kaepernick SF 25 0.81 22.1 331.3 57 10 QB Russell Wilson SEA 23 0.00 21.0 314.3 58 24 RB Shane Vereen NE 24 0.84 15.1 181.0 59 21 WR Pierre Garcon WAS 27 2.12 15.8 205.0 60 22 WR Reggie Wayne IND 34 0.99 14.2 212.5 61 11 QB Tom Brady NE 36 0.35 20.5 307.0 62 23 WR Cecil Shorts JAC 25 0.82 13.9 209.0 63 24 WR Mike Wallace MIA 27 1.27 14.6 218.5 64 25 WR James Jones GB 29 0.80 13.9 208.5 65 25 RB Montee Ball DEN 22 0.71 12.9 193.5 66 26 RB Ahmad Bradshaw IND 27 0.10 14.0 168.5 67 26 WR Mike Williams TB 26 1.32 14.6 219.5 68 27 RB Andre Brown NYG 26 1.19 12.2 171.0 69 27 WR Steve Johnson BUF 27 1.39 14.7 221.0 70 28 RB Eddie Lacy GB 22 1.29 12.1 157.0 71 29 RB Giovani Bernard CIN 21 1.91 11.2 168.0 72 30 RB Danny Woodhead SD 28 2.19 10.8 162.0 73 31 RB Chris Ivory NYJ 25 2.21 10.8 140.0 74 28 WR Josh Gordon CLE 22 0.79 13.9 180.5 75 5 TE Jared Cook STL 26 1.41 13.2 197.5 76 6 TE Kyle Rudolph MIN 23 1.18 12.8 192.5 77 29 WR Kenny Britt TEN 24 0.05 12.8 192.5 78 12 QB Tony Romo DAL 33 0.00 20.9 314.2 79 32 RB Bryce Brown PHI 22 2.40 10.5 157.5 80 33 RB Daryl Richardson STL 23 2.50 10.4 155.5 81 34 RB Rashard Mendenhall ARI 26 2.50 10.4 155.5 82 30 WR Michael Floyd ARI 23 0.16 13.0 195.0 83 31 WR Antonio Brown PIT 26 0.02 12.7 191.0 84 32 WR Tavon Austin STL 22 0.09 12.9 193.5 85 35 RB Pierre Thomas NO 28 2.17 10.8 162.5 86 36 RB Mark Ingram NO 23 3.18 9.4 141.0 87 7 TE Antonio Gates SD 33 1.38 13.1 170.5 88 8 TE Martellus Bennett CHI 26 0.87 12.4 186.0 89 37 RB DeAngelo Williams CAR 30 4.10 8.1 121.5 90 38 RB Ryan Mathews SD 25 2.48 10.4 145.5 91 33 WR Torrey Smith BAL 24 0.40 12.2 183.0 92 34 WR Greg Jennings MIN 29 0.67 13.7 192.0 93 35 WR DeAndre Hopkins HOU 21 0.42 12.2 182.5 94 9 TE Jordan Cameron CLE 25 0.49 11.9 178.0 95 10 TE Jermichael Finley GB 26 0.06 11.1 144.0 96 11 TE Vernon Davis SF 29 0.00 11.2 167.5 97 12 TE Greg Olsen CAR 28 0.14 11.0 164.5 98 36 WR Chris Givens STL 23 0.92 11.5 172.0 99 37 WR Anquan Boldin SF 32 0.26 13.1 197.0 100 38 WR Miles Austin DAL 29 0.64 11.9 166.0 101 13 QB Jay Cutler CHI 30 0.59 21.8 326.8 102 14 QB Andy Dalton CIN 25 0.34 20.4 306.7 103 39 RB Ben Tate HOU 25 4.05 8.2 114.5 104 40 RB Ronnie Hillman DEN 21 4.41 7.7 115.0 105 41 RB Bernard Pierce BAL 23 4.62 7.4 110.5 106 42 RB Vick Ballard IND 23 2.88 9.8 147.5 107 39 WR Alshon Jeffery CHI 23 0.35 12.3 184.0 108 40 WR Golden Tate SEA 25 0.00 12.8 191.5 109 41 WR Ryan Broyles DET 25 0.42 12.2 146.0 110 13 TE Robert Housler ARI 25 0.00 11.2 167.5 111 42 WR Kendall Wright TEN 23 1.18 11.1 166.5 112 43 WR Emmanuel Sanders PIT 26 0.03 12.7 165.5 113 15 QB Josh Freeman TB 25 0.68 20.0 299.7 114 16 QB Sam Bradford STL 25 0.73 19.9 298.7 115 43 RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis CIN 28 3.32 9.2 138.0 116 44 RB Jonathan Stewart CAR 26 2.37 10.5 126.5 117 17 QB Eli Manning NYG 32 1.04 19.5 292.1 118 18 QB Carson Palmer ARI 33 1.85 18.3 275.0 119 44 WR DeSean Jackson PHI 26 1.96 10.0 150.0 120 45 WR T.Y. Hilton IND 23 1.34 10.9 163.0 121 46 WR Lance Moore NO 30 1.72 10.3 155.0 122 47 WR Justin Blackmon JAC 23 0.55 13.5 149.0 123 45 RB Christine Michael SEA 22 4.95 6.9 103.5 124 46 RB Isaiah Pead STL 23 3.54 8.9 124.5 125 48 WR Rueben Randle NYG 22 2.76 8.9 133.0 126 47 RB Lance Dunbar DAL 23 4.57 7.4 111.5 127 48 RB Shonn Greene TEN 28 5.70 5.8 87.5 128 49 RB Fred Jackson BUF 32 4.25 7.9 102.5 129 19 QB Matt Schaub HOU 32 1.36 19.0 285.4 130 20 QB Alex Smith KC 29 1.51 18.8 282.1 131 21 QB Ryan Tannehill MIA 25 2.04 18.1 271.0 132 14 TE Coby Fleener IND 24 0.95 9.8 137.5 133 15 TE Dustin Keller MIA 28 0.24 11.5 172.5 134 16 TE Brandon Pettigrew DET 28 1.86 8.5 128.0 135 17 TE Owen Daniels HOU 30 0.33 10.7 160.5 136 22 QB Ben Roethlisberger PIT 31 3.09 16.6 215.5 137 18 TE Marcedes Lewis JAC 29 0.24 10.8 162.5 138 50 RB Johnathan Franklin GB 23 3.56 8.9 133.0 139 51 RB Joique Bell DET 27 6.08 5.3 79.5 140 49 WR Percy Harvin SEA 25 1.93 15.5 62.0 141 19 TE Brandon Myers NYG 27 2.62 7.5 112.0 142 50 WR Brian Hartline MIA 26 1.60 10.5 157.5 143 51 WR Greg Little CLE 24 1.83 10.2 142.5 144 52 WR Vincent Brown SD 24 1.96 10.0 130.0 145 52 RB Michael Bush CHI 29 5.75 5.8 86.5 146 53 RB Jacquizz Rodgers ATL 24 5.89 5.6 83.5 147 54 RB Zac Stacy STL 22 6.53 4.7 70.0 148 53 WR Sidney Rice SEA 27 2.07 9.8 147.5 149 54 WR Kenbrell Thompkins NE 26 3.04 8.5 127.0 150 55 WR Andre Roberts ARI 25 2.85 8.7 131.0

McCoy could easily match or surpass his career-high workload (321 touches in 2011) in HC Chip Kelly’s up-tempo offense, but he rounds out the tail end of the first round simply because he has more question marks than 10 backs listed before him. Will McCoy be able to reach 50 catches in an offense that loves to run the ball? How much will Bryce Brown eat into his workload or will the duo pretty much end up splitting series? If Kelly’s offense can roll off an average of 75-80 plays per game, then sharing carries and/or series becomes less of an issue. Still, the presence of a talent like Brown and Kelly’s history of using 2-3 backs is substantial enough to drop McCoy. I was among the many to watch Steven Jackson in his first preseason game and come away a bit disappointed, but keep it in perspective. He has absolutely nothing to prove right now and Atlanta ran almost exclusively to the right side, which is where the Falcons were likely testing new RT Lamar Holmes after the team lost projected starter Mike Johnson earlier in the week.

It is hard to argue with the quality of the four receivers following Jackson, which brings us to our second wave of running backs. Johnson represents the last opportunity owners have to select a durable back that consistently rushes for over 1,000 yards AND is a good bet to post at least 40-50 catches. The case could be made that Johnson belongs in the first round, but it also hard to give a first-round grade to a back that will not see goal-line carries. The much-improved offensive line should make him a great candidate for a bounce-back season (considering how inconsistent he has been in recent years). Sproles and Bush are rock-solid RB2s in PPR leagues (not only from the standpoint they are both incredibly likely to secure 70 or more receptions, but also because the way they figure to be used in their respective offenses doesn’t expose them to the same kind of punishment as the top backs). I’m a bit skeptical that Bush’s knee will stay healthy since he will play most of his games on turf – one of the factors I think led to his lack of durability in New Orleans – but he’ll be a huge asset in fantasy if he can stay healthy.

26-50: While the running back talent pool doesn’t complete drop off after Round 2, there are so many more question marks than answers thereafter that owners really almost have to select at least one by that point. Why is that? Look at the quality of quarterbacks and receivers available in this group of 25. If you miss out on one of the top 2-3 quarterbacks, take solace in selecting Ryan, Newton or Stafford 1-3 rounds later. Did you bypass Bryant, Jones and Green in the second round? I have no issues with Cruz, Cobb or even Vincent Jackson as my WR1 in PPR leagues if my backfield is secure.

Let’s focus quickly on the players listed at the back half of this subset, starting with Decker. It’s a bit hard to comprehend how a player such as Decker, who led the league in red-zone targets (and tied with Colston for the most receptions inside the 20) is simply going to fall off the fantasy map. The last time Manning had three dynamic weapons in or near their prime at receiver was during his record-setting 2004 season, when he put three wideouts within the top 16 receivers in PPR leagues. Welker figures to take most of the last year’s receptions from Jacob Tamme and Brandon Stokley, not Decker. Nelson is expected to be back in time for Week 1 following knee surgery, so use that opportunity to grab a potential top 10 receiver as a WR2. His connection with Rodgers is undeniable and he comes with less risk than the three injury-risk players listed directly behind him.

Speaking of Gronkowski, Amendola and Nicks, these three players were lumped together because there is no telling how long any of them can or will last. (And now is an appropriate time to mention that I will value risk more this season with the Big Boards than I ever have before.) Gronkowski’s “upside” has been proven over the first three years of his career, but ranking him among the top 40 at this moment should be nearly impossible for any owner that values reducing risk with his/her early draft choices. Amendola has obvious top-10 upside as Brady’s new “slot machine”, but his injury history makes him more of a risk than Welker ever was. Nicks is entering a contract year and a dynamic playmaker, but his durability is nearly the question mark it is for Amendola.

51-100: The strength and depth of quality fantasy quarterbacks really shows up in this group. Can anyone say with any certainty that Luck, Griffin, Kaepernick or Wilson won’t challenge Rodgers and Brees for the top spot at their position? All four are obviously very capable of beating opponents running or throwing and each one figures to pick their battles – as when to keep running and when to slip out of bounds – even better with another year of experience. Luck may have lost OC Bruce Arians, but his numbers should stay roughly the same since new OC Pep Hamilton figures to make better use of Fleener and the running backs in the passing game. Griffin didn’t gain any weapons and is perhaps the biggest injury risk of the bunch, but he could improve in fantasy simply if Garcon stays healthy. Kaepernick lost Michael Crabtree to injury, but the addition of Boldin figures to keep him on track. Wilson also lost his projected top option in Harvin, but fared pretty well in 2012 with the same supporting cast he has now.

The group of running backs starting with Bernard and ending with Mendenhall is as difficult to rank as any collection of players. Bernard has incredibly high upside as a significant contributor in the passing game, but has a long ways to go as an inside runner and pass blocker if the first preseason game was any indication of how he will perform in those areas as a rookie in 2013. Woodhead was considered by most to be a complementary back upon his signing with San Diego, although it appears he will be sharing backfield touches at the very least with Mathews now. For a Chargers’ team that figures to be trailing in a number of games, his current ranking is probably his floor. We’ve already discussed the Eagles’ offense, so it’s clear why a second-string back could still have significant fantasy value. Brown is reportedly getting pushed by third-string RB Chris Polk in camp, but the former is a superior talent.

Daryl Richardson is best utilized as a “space player”, although the Rams may have little choice but to make a 15-touch/game lead back. It’s becoming clear no one is going to run away with the job in St. Louis, but the lead back in a wide-open offense like the Rams should have this season should still have significant value. Mendenhall is the only back of the bunch that should be a true feature back. However, Mendenhall is still not completely healthy, his offensive line figures to be average at best and Arians has leaned more and more on the passing game in recent years. Factor in that Arians’ offenses do not typically throw all that much to their backs and there’s little reason to believe Mendenhall will turn his potential heavy workload into “heavy” production.

101-150: Pierce has a real shot at battling Tate to be the most valuable backup running back in fantasy. To earn that title, a back must be on a team that runs the football well and possesses solid standalone fantasy value so they are roster-worthy in the event the starter plays all 16 games. Rice and Foster have been among the most durable backs in football in recent years, but if that changes for either fantasy stud in 2013, Pierce (and/or Tate) have more than enough talent to carry their fantasy teams to a title.

If Sanders stays healthy and holds on to his job all season as Pittsburgh’s replacement for Wallace, then he will be an exceptional bargain in fantasy leagues. However, count me in the group of people that doesn’t believe one or both will happen. Third-round rookie Markus Wheaton is a superior talent and well worth a selection in the final rounds of a draft. Despite a reputation as a big-play receiver, Sanders has yet to score more than two touchdowns in any one of his first three seasons. He’ll have his opportunity in 2013 to prove he was worthy of the offer sheet the Patriots handed him (and the Steelers matched) in the offseason, but Pittsburgh will have little issue moving on from him and his one-year contract since Wheaton is almost certainly the player the team wants starting opposite Antonio Brown in 2014.

Next: Non-PPR Big Board

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