At the rate players are dropping this preseason, it may be next to impossible to put together any kind of draft board that is relevant for more than a day, much less a week. (Thankfully, I’ll get three shots at this…)

Injuries had already claimed Percy Harvin, Jeremy Maclin, Danario Alexander and Dennis Pitta prior to end of last weekend – four players that almost certainly would have found their way inside the top 100 or so players in just about every draft. On Monday, Jamaal Charles gave everyone a scare when he suffered what is being called a “foot strain”. Later that same night, the San Diego Chargers took their second hit at the receiver position in a week when Malcom Floyd got tangled up with CB Shareece Wright in practice. An MRI revealed he sprained his right knee, which is often the initial diagnosis when a player tears his ACL. While Floyd’s potential season-ending injury doesn’t mean much to the average fantasy owner, any potential long-term injury to Charles sure does. The point is that days like Monday serve as a reminder the NFL’s news cycle rarely ever stops, which illustrates the importance of owners using tools such as Twitter during a draft to ensure they are as informed as every other owner in the draft room.

I offer my sympathies to any and all owners that have already participated in drafts in which they drafted one or more of the aforementioned players, but avoiding the first wave of injuries and gaining clarity on position battles are the main reasons why it is smart to wait at least another week or two to draft. My first draft of consequence takes place on Thursday when I participate in an experts’ auction draft, but I’ve always felt it is at least one week too early every season. With that said, I will not complain about free “practice” against industry experts at any point of the preseason using the method of drafting I will be utilizing for some of my big money leagues. It’s another advantage I’ll have over the rest of my competition in a couple of weeks and, just as importantly, I have a title to defend.

Loyal readers already know my stance on the importance of value when it comes to drafting, but most fantasy analysts fail to quantify it. As it relates to my Big Boards, I define "value" using the VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) concept for a two-RB, three-WR league, which essentially allows me to compare apples and oranges. At QB and TE, the value reflects the standard deviation from the 12th-ranked player at the position – the last starting-caliber player at the position. At RB, the value reflects the standard deviation from the 24th-ranked player at the position and, at WR, the 36th-ranked player. As I have mentioned many times before over the years, "value" in drafting is key. Need has to outweigh value on occasion, but for the most part, it can't hurt to take the best player left on the board. Understanding the delicate balance of realizing a player is too good to pass up and knowing exactly when the last spot in your likely Week 1 starting lineup needs to be filled often separates the great drafters from the very good ones.

Beyond using “value” to ease the process of setting up a draft board, analyzing the playoff matchups and common sense has to enter into the conversation as well. A perfect example of the latter is Calvin Johnson, whose PPR value should make him the top player on my board. While Johnson certainly brings a huge advantage to his fantasy teams almost every week, no number cannot account for the economic principle of “opportunity cost” – the loss of potential gain from other alternatives when one alternative is chosen – in real-time when owners pass on an elite running back to draft Johnson. A simple number value also cannot account for the drastic falloff in value at running back after the established top options are drafted, usually by the end of the first round. Smart drafting also involves supply versus demand. Every year, there are not nearly enough quality running backs to occupy 24 starting spots in 12-team leagues, but there are usually at least 36 receivers that are worthy starters.

Before I get to the boards, I would like to remind readers about a few key points about the Big Boards:

1) They are not going to look like many other draft boards you see. My method of evaluating fantasy players relies heavily on projected consistency and matchups, not overall fantasy point total projections. All too often, fantasy owners and even the so-called "experts" get hung up by the final numbers. Don't get me wrong, I want all my players to have 300+ points at the end of the season. But as the old saying goes, "It's not about the destination, it's about the journey"; if my RB1 gives me seven spectacular performances along with six duds during the regular season, there's a fairly decent chance I may end up 7-6. I don’t want that and neither should you.

2) I will push a player down my board if feel he is a health risk or if I simply don’t/can’t trust him. I will put more stock into this area in 2013 than I ever have. If you take the time to break down each position I provide below, you will notice that I don’t follow the point totals or averages to a tee. (Think of the average and value I provide for each player as a starting point for my rankings.) Outside of trust issues, I will push a player down my board – despite a higher average or overall point total – if I believe he will simply be less consistent throughout the season or if his playoff schedule appears treacherous.

3) Much like last season, I want to provide readers with a clear risk sign. If a player is a moderate risk – be it due to holdout, injury, off-field, etc. – you will see a next his name. If I feel a player is a severe risk, your will see a next to his name. While I feel like I have accounted for each player’s “risk” with their spot on the Big Board, you may be more or less inclined to deal with that risk than I am. This is just another way of helping you take a look at the board and quickly identifying which players stand a good chance to frustrate you at some point this season.

Note: At least for this first set of Big Boards, I have chosen to stop at 150 players. Next week, I will add the kickers and defenses while also expanding the number of ranked players. In the final set of Big Boards in two weeks, I will add even more players.

Let’s revisit the color-coding system before we start:

Red – A very difficult matchup. For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be used in fantasy that week. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like a RB2).

Yellow – Keep expectations fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White – Basically, this matchup is one that could go either way. In some cases, I just don’t feel like I have a good feel yet for this defense. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.

Green – It doesn’t get much better than this. For non-elite players, the stage is basically set for said player to exploit the matchup. For the elite player, this matchup should produce special numbers..

Here is the scoring system that I used to rank the players in the Non-PPR format:

One final note: Over the next week, I will be “quality controlling” my projections (basically double-checking my numbers, such as not having one defense projected to intercept 40 passes while another has just five), so this week’s Big Boards may look dramatically different – particularly at the bottom – in two weeks than they currently do. As with all things that are worth doing, this process takes time and needs to be constantly revised as more information about depth charts and injuries becomes available. What I can assure you is that my final set of Big Boards will be one of the most comprehensive draft-day tools anyone will have at their disposal.

Non-PPR Big Board - Top 150 OVR PR Pos Player Risk Tm Age Value FPts/G FPts 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 1 1 RB Adrian Peterson MIN 28 5.15 18.7 242.5 2 2 RB Doug Martin TB 24 4.74 18.1 271.0 3 3 RB Arian Foster HOU 27 4.36 17.5 263.0 4 1 WR Calvin Johnson DET 27 4.60 14.9 223.0 5 4 RB C.J. Spiller BUF 26 4.10 17.2 257.5 6 5 RB Trent Richardson CLE 23 3.54 16.4 245.5 7 6 RB Alfred Morris WAS 24 3.25 16.0 239.5 8 7 RB Jamaal Charles KC 26 3.63 16.5 247.5 9 8 RB Marshawn Lynch SEA 27 2.97 15.6 233.5 10 2 WR Dez Bryant DAL 24 3.82 13.8 206.5 11 9 RB Ray Rice BAL 26 2.64 15.1 226.5 12 1 QB Aaron Rodgers GB 29 4.47 27.3 409.1 13 10 RB Steven Jackson ATL 30 3.13 15.8 237.0 14 1 TE Jimmy Graham NO 26 3.63 12.4 185.5 15 3 WR Julio Jones ATL 24 3.44 13.2 198.5 16 4 WR Brandon Marshall CHI 29 3.40 13.2 197.5 17 5 WR A.J. Green CIN 25 2.85 12.4 186.0 18 11 RB Matt Forte CHI 27 2.88 15.4 231.5 19 12 RB LeSean McCoy PHI 25 2.50 14.9 223.5 20 2 QB Drew Brees NO 34 3.88 26.4 396.5 21 13 RB Chris Johnson TEN 27 2.50 14.9 223.5 22 14 RB Stevan Ridley NE 24 1.72 13.8 207.0 23 6 WR Larry Fitzgerald ARI 30 2.90 12.5 187.0 24 15 RB Le’Veon Bell PIT 21 1.41 13.4 200.5 25 7 WR Demaryius Thomas DEN 25 3.40 13.2 197.5 26 3 QB Peyton Manning DEN 37 3.79 26.3 394.5 27 8 WR Roddy White ATL 31 2.64 12.1 181.5 28 16 RB DeMarco Murray DAL 25 2.13 14.4 172.5 29 17 RB Frank Gore SF 30 0.66 12.3 184.5 30 18 RB Maurice Jones-Drew JAC 28 0.00 11.4 170.5 31 9 WR Dwayne Bowe KC 28 2.36 11.7 175.5 32 10 WR Andre Johnson HOU 32 2.57 12.0 180.0 33 11 WR Vincent Jackson TB 30 2.38 11.7 176.0 34 4 QB Matt Ryan ATL 28 2.90 25.0 375.7 35 5 QB Cam Newton CAR 24 2.01 23.8 356.8 36 19 RB Darren McFadden OAK 26 1.48 13.5 161.5 37 20 RB Lamar Miller MIA 22 0.64 12.3 184.0 38 21 RB Darren Sproles NO 30 0.38 11.9 178.5 39 12 WR Eric Decker DEN 26 2.57 12.0 180.0 40 13 WR Victor Cruz NYG 26 1.91 11.1 166.0 41 22 RB Reggie Bush DET 28 0.78 12.5 174.5 42 23 RB David Wilson NYG 22 0.20 11.6 163.0 43 14 WR Jordy Nelson GB 28 2.17 11.4 171.5 44 2 TE Tony Gonzalez ATL 37 1.84 9.8 147.5 45 6 QB Matthew Stafford DET 25 1.48 23.0 345.7 46 7 QB Andrew Luck IND 23 1.72 23.4 350.7 47 3 TE Rob Gronkowski NE 24 1.64 9.5 105.0 48 8 QB Colin Kaepernick SF 25 0.81 22.1 331.3 49 9 QB Robert Griffin III WAS 23 1.31 22.8 319.1 50 15 WR Steve Smith CAR 34 1.68 10.7 161.0 51 16 WR Marques Colston NO 30 1.23 10.1 151.5 52 17 WR Hakeem Nicks NYG 25 1.51 10.5 136.5 53 10 QB Russell Wilson SEA 23 0.00 21.0 314.3 54 18 WR Pierre Garcon WAS 27 1.81 10.9 142.0 55 24 RB Eddie Lacy GB 22 0.10 11.2 146.0 56 19 WR Randall Cobb GB 23 1.11 9.9 149.0 57 20 WR Cecil Shorts JAC 25 0.69 9.3 140.0 58 21 WR Wes Welker DEN 32 0.69 9.3 140.0 59 11 QB Tom Brady NE 36 0.34 20.5 307.0 60 22 WR Reggie Wayne IND 34 0.38 8.9 133.5 61 25 RB Andre Brown NYG 26 0.31 10.9 153.0 62 26 RB Shane Vereen NE 24 0.49 10.7 128.0 63 27 RB Montee Ball DEN 22 0.00 11.4 170.5 64 4 TE Kyle Rudolph MIN 23 0.85 8.4 126.5 65 23 WR Mike Williams TB 26 1.42 10.4 155.5 66 24 WR Mike Wallace MIA 27 1.23 10.1 151.5 67 25 WR James Jones GB 29 0.99 9.8 146.5 68 12 QB Tony Romo DAL 33 0.00 20.9 314.2 69 26 WR Kenny Britt TEN 24 0.28 8.8 131.5 70 28 RB Giovani Bernard CIN 21 2.19 8.3 124.0 71 29 RB Bryce Brown PHI 22 1.56 9.2 137.5 72 30 RB Daryl Richardson STL 23 2.17 8.3 124.5 73 27 WR Danny Amendola NE 27 1.42 10.4 124.5 74 31 RB Ahmad Bradshaw IND 27 0.29 11.0 131.5 75 32 RB Chris Ivory NYJ 25 1.02 9.9 129.0 76 28 WR Josh Gordon CLE 22 0.91 9.7 125.5 77 29 WR Steve Johnson BUF 27 0.83 9.5 143.0 78 5 TE Jared Cook STL 26 1.13 8.8 132.5 79 33 RB Rashard Mendenhall ARI 26 1.79 8.8 132.5 80 34 RB Ryan Mathews SD 25 1.90 8.7 121.5 81 30 WR Michael Floyd ARI 23 0.45 9.0 135.0 82 31 WR Antonio Brown PIT 26 0.35 7.9 118.0 83 6 TE Jason Witten DAL 31 0.59 8.1 121.0 84 7 TE Martellus Bennett CHI 26 0.64 8.1 122.0 85 9 TE Jermichael Finley GB 26 0.00 7.2 94.0 86 10 TE Vernon Davis SF 29 0.05 7.3 109.5 87 32 WR Torrey Smith BAL 24 0.02 8.3 125.0 88 33 WR DeAndre Hopkins HOU 21 0.09 8.2 123.5 89 8 TE Antonio Gates SD 33 0.73 8.3 107.5 90 35 RB Mark Ingram NO 23 2.14 8.3 125.0 91 36 RB DeAngelo Williams CAR 30 3.06 7.0 105.5 92 37 RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis CIN 28 2.10 8.4 126.0 93 34 WR Tavon Austin STL 22 0.24 8.7 130.5 94 35 WR Chris Givens STL 23 0.40 7.8 117.0 95 36 WR DeSean Jackson PHI 26 0.92 7.1 106.0 96 13 QB Jay Cutler CHI 30 0.59 21.8 326.8 97 14 QB Andy Dalton CIN 25 0.35 20.4 306.7 98 37 WR Greg Jennings MIN 29 0.40 8.9 125.0 99 38 WR Anquan Boldin SF 32 0.36 8.9 133.0 100 38 RB Danny Woodhead SD 28 2.62 7.7 115.0 101 39 RB Ben Tate HOU 25 2.66 7.6 106.5 102 11 TE Jordan Cameron CLE 25 0.50 7.9 119.0 103 12 TE Greg Olsen CAR 28 0.09 7.1 106.5 104 39 WR T.Y. Hilton IND 23 0.49 7.7 115.0 105 40 RB Pierre Thomas NO 28 2.31 8.1 121.5 106 41 RB Bernard Pierce BAL 23 3.25 6.8 101.5 107 15 QB Josh Freeman TB 25 0.68 20.0 299.7 108 16 QB Sam Bradford STL 25 0.73 19.9 298.7 109 17 QB Eli Manning NYG 32 1.04 19.5 292.1 110 42 RB Vick Ballard IND 23 2.26 8.2 122.5 111 43 RB Ronnie Hillman DEN 21 4.41 5.1 77.0 112 40 WR Alshon Jeffery CHI 23 0.16 8.1 122.0 113 41 WR Golden Tate SEA 25 0.10 8.5 127.5 114 42 WR Justin Blackmon JAC 23 0.00 8.4 92.0 115 44 RB Jonathan Stewart CAR 26 2.23 8.2 98.5 116 45 RB Shonn Greene TEN 28 4.15 5.5 82.5 117 43 WR Miles Austin DAL 29 0.51 7.6 107.0 118 44 WR Emmanuel Sanders PIT 26 0.18 8.1 105.5 119 18 QB Carson Palmer ARI 33 1.85 18.3 275.0 120 13 TE Dustin Keller MIA 28 0.10 7.4 110.5 121 14 TE Robert Housler ARI 25 0.09 7.1 106.5 122 19 QB Matt Schaub HOU 32 1.36 19.0 285.4 123 45 WR Ryan Broyles DET 25 0.49 7.7 92.0 124 46 WR Kendall Wright TEN 23 0.70 7.4 110.5 125 46 RB Lance Dunbar DAL 23 3.87 5.9 88.5 126 47 RB Johnathan Franklin GB 23 3.28 6.7 101.0 127 48 RB Isaiah Pead STL 23 3.42 6.5 91.5 128 47 WR Brian Hartline MIA 26 1.08 6.8 102.5 129 48 WR Sidney Rice SEA 27 1.22 6.6 99.5 130 49 WR Percy Harvin SEA 25 1.51 10.5 42.0 131 50 WR Lance Moore NO 30 1.25 6.6 99.0 132 51 WR Greg Little CLE 24 1.39 6.4 89.5 133 20 QB Alex Smith KC 29 1.51 18.8 282.1 134 21 QB Ryan Tannehill MIA 25 2.04 18.1 271.0 135 49 RB Michael Bush CHI 29 4.29 5.3 79.5 136 50 RB Christine Michael SEA 22 4.48 5.0 75.5 137 51 RB Rashad Jennings OAK 28 5.04 4.2 63.5 138 22 QB Ben Roethlisberger PIT 31 3.09 16.6 215.5 139 52 WR Rueben Randle NYG 22 1.91 5.7 85.0 140 53 WR Kenbrell Thompkins NE 26 1.91 5.7 85.0 141 15 TE Marcedes Lewis JAC 29 0.33 6.8 101.5 142 16 TE Owen Daniels HOU 30 0.33 6.8 101.5 143 17 TE Coby Fleener IND 24 0.49 6.5 91.5 144 52 RB Fred Jackson BUF 32 3.50 6.4 83.5 145 53 RB Zac Stacy STL 22 5.07 4.2 63.0 146 54 RB Joique Bell DET 27 5.37 3.8 56.5 147 18 TE Tyler Eifert CIN 22 1.53 5.1 76.0 148 55 WR Vincent Brown SD 24 1.62 6.1 79.0 149 19 TE Brandon Pettigrew DET 28 1.58 5.0 75.0 150 20 TE Jermaine Gresham CIN 24 1.81 4.7 70.0

Although Morris and Lynch could each challenge for the league lead in rushing touchdowns again, their lack of involvement in the passing game makes them slightly less consistent than most of their higher-rated contemporaries. Owners will likely question Graham’s inclusion in the top 15, but his value actually suggests he could/should go higher. The fourth-year tight end is essentially a receiver at a position in which there are no other healthy elite options. Given the depth at receiver and quarterback, owners should view Graham as the second-best fantasy receiver – in regards to the value he brings to a team. As such, he is a savvy second-round pick for those owners who feel the quality of running backs are not any greater in the second round than they are in the third or early fourth. No other player in fantasy offers more of an advantage at his position each week than Graham.

26-50: In my opinion, four of the seven backs I have clustered from 29-42 are almost impossible to rank. Gore has arguably the best run-blocking line in the league in front of him and a team that is very committed to the rushing attack, but he is 30 and could be given the Michael Turner “treatment” (as in he will be saved for the second half of the season). Jones-Drew is the one player of the bunch I want to rank higher, but I’ll play it safe with him for now until I actually see him run again. Of the backs in this group, MJD is the only one that I feel calling a second-round value if he truly is as healthy as he is letting on publicly. McFadden clearly has the highest upside if he plays 16 games, but we all know by now that has little chance of happening. He doesn’t have much of a supporting cast either, which makes it a situation I will try to avoid unless I can land him as a flex option. Wilson could easily be the next Chris Johnson (in terms of his ability to break off big runs routinely), but I have long had issues with choosing running backs that don’t pass block well or get goal-line carries. Unfortunately for the second-year back, both areas are working against him at the moment.

Murray could have easily been included in the above group, but I find myself less concerned about him than the other backs. Although the offensive line will continue to be a work in progress, his present and future owners have to be pleased with the Cowboys’ renewed emphasis on the rushing attack in the preseason. Although his 50-60 catch potential doesn’t mean as much in standard leagues, it doesn’t take away the extra 300-500 receiving yards he can collect as a result. Murray is an upright runner who will probably always be more susceptible to injury than most backs, but more outside and zone runs (such as the ones I have seen through the team’s two exhibition games) could go a long way in lessening the number of times he has to take a direct shot from a linebacker in the hole. His injury history makes him a RB2 in fantasy, but he has top-10 RB upside if 2013 is the season he plays all 16 games. Savvy owners need to remember Lance Dunbar, who has looked very good thus far and could be close to solidifying his status as Murray’s handcuff.

51-100: Few teams are playing the misinformation game in the backfield better than Green Bay this summer. HC Mike McCarthy stated last week he was happy to see DuJuan Harris return to practice because he still viewed Harris as the starter. James Starks started the preseason opener and is reportedly having an “outstanding” camp. Johnathan Franklin either is the clear-cut passing-down back or he’s not, depending on the source. Alex Green handled first-team snaps at one point last week, only to hear he is the subject of trade talks a few days later. And then there is Lacy, who was drafted to be the physical presence this offense needs. IF Lacy gets the same kind of workload Ryan Grant did in his heyday and IF he can stay healthy (two huge question marks), then Lacy is probably a second-round value with double-digit touchdown potential. However, it should come as no big mystery why he is ranked as a fifth-round value here – he’s currently nursing a hamstring injury and is unlikely to receive a lot of work in the passing game.

I’ll devote the rest of this section to two players that have a shot to skyrocket up both boards in the coming weeks: DeSean Jackson and DeAngelo Williams. When I initially did the Eagles’ projections, Nick Foles seemed to be in line for the starting quarterback job and Jeremy Maclin was still healthy. Now, Michael Vick looks to have the edge as the signal-caller, the receiver corps has been decimated and Jackson appears reinvigorated. Projecting Jackson will be much easier once Philadelphia makes a call at quarterback, but it’s not hard to imagine a scenario in which the Eagles’ top receiver – with a clear mind – revisits the same kind of fantasy value he enjoyed in 2008 and 2009 as the team’s only established threat at receiver. Williams is in a similar boat from the standpoint he is in position to take advantage of a fallen teammate. Stewart is still a question mark with little information as to when he will return after undergoing offseason surgery on both ankles. Stewart is the more-talented back, but real-life battles aren’t always determined by natural ability. Carolina looks to be serious about re-establishing the run while reducing the amount of the ground game Newton has to carry himself. In short, if Stewart isn’t around, there’s a very good chance Williams could establish sneaky RB3 value in his absence.

101-150: Ballard isn’t a special player by any stretch, but he doesn’t get near enough credit. While Luck was generating headlines with his stellar play in 2012, Ballard was averaging 4.1 YPC over the second half of the season behind a below-average run-blocking line on a team that wasn’t committed to running the ball. The addition of Bradshaw certainly curbs any immediate upside he brought to the new offense – which is emphasizing the rushing attack – but owners have to know that chronic foot injuries are among the worst injuries a running back can have – making the ex-Giant a severe risk. Few players have more variance between their fantasy ceiling and floor than Ballard in 2013, with his downside being about 500 rushing yards in a strict backup role and his upside over 1,000 yards. The likelihood, however, is that Bradshaw will be kept on a 12-15 touch/game count, making both players fantasy RB3s. Ballard will likely be a viable low-end RB2 in the 2-4 games Bradshaw will probably miss, which is enough to make him a solid fantasy RB4 option.

Two players I will almost certainly draft on at least half of my teams are Randle and Harvin. While Randle appears to have his path blocked by Nicks and Cruz, the former’s susceptibility to injury is no secret. Randle is not a player owners should draft as a player that should contribute to fantasy teams immediately, but rather as an investment that can pay off in a big way as a fantasy starter or trade bait if Nicks misses a handful of games again this season. Harvin appears to be a longshot at best given his initial 11-16 week timetable following hip surgery, but consider him a long-term investment – especially in leagues that have an IR spot. If Harvin can begin practice around Thanksgiving – which would be on the long end of his projected recovery – then he is a player that could be a huge asset just in time for the fantasy playoffs. The very reason he is ranked as the 49th receiver is because he makes the perfect WR5. If that sounds crazy, consider how many players ranked below him – at any position – could have the same kind of potential impact he should have during the fantasy postseason.

Next: PPR Big Board

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