Generally speaking, I like surprises and spontaneity. That attitude
does not carry over to fantasy football, however, since predictability
and logic would seem to have a place in a game that is often decided
by how long it takes to break an opponent’s will.
There’s something to be said about a coach’s ability
to motivate, but there is a big difference between that and keeping
his players on edge because they really have no idea how much
they will play from week to week. Think about it for a second:
baseball players complain when they get moved down in the order
and basketball players often gripe if they’re not getting
a certain number shots or minutes. Of course there are extenuating
circumstances from time to time but, for the most part, a No.
2 hitter can feel good from day-to-day that he will bat second
in the order and a 3-point specialist can be relatively certain
he’ll be able to fire up a handful of 3-pointers if game
flow dictates that it should happen.
For whatever reason, football does not work in the same way –
at least not anymore. Last week, we discussed how many believe
the new Collective Bargaining Agreement has severely handcuffed
coaches from doing what they should be able to do best –
teach young players the pro game. This has become even more important
in recent years since so many colleges play a different brand
of football than most NFL teams do. For example, pro teams can
use spread-offense concepts, but cannot utilize the spread on
a full-time basis. Similarly, if college teams use nothing but
the spread, pro teams are more comfortable with their quarterbacks
working under center and college offensive linemen are more used
to a drop-step than they are firing out, it only makes sense that
today’s players require more (not less) time learning the
fundamentals of the pro game.
In short, coaches have a right to be frustrated, although it
is more than fair to wonder if they dangle the playing-time carrot
just a bit too much nowadays, especially at the running back position.
Not only does this phenomenon make playing fantasy football much
more frustrating than it has to be, but it also has to wear on
all but the handful of superstar players that don’t have
to worry about their weekly workload. Why should coaches expect
running backs to be any different than the No. 2 hitter or 3-point
specialist I spoke of earlier? Running backs take as much punishment
in the league as any player, so it seems a bit disingenuous for
coaches to feel the need to play mind games in regards to their
job security and not reward them a bit more often for their willingness
to absorb that punishment. However, I digress (for now…)
After taking a look at the first
16 teams (in alphabetical order) last week, I want to take
a look at the other 16 teams this week, provide an overview of
what they’ve done so far and discuss generally where they’ll
be in a few weeks. I’m also going to put the number of returning
offensive line starters by each team, but will only count
one as “returning” if he is playing the same position
he was at the end of last year.
Miami is averaging 18 carries per game
after 3 weeks.
For comparison’s sake, the 2014 Dolphins had 79 rush attempts
and 124 pass attempts during their 1-2 start. Although Miami is
loaded at receiver for the future, this kind of imbalance can’t
be what OC Bill Lazor had in mind in Year 2. It should be noted
the Dolphins have spent a disproportionate amount of time trailing
in games, with the best example coming in last week’s 41-14
loss at Buffalo in which they were down by 27 at halftime. ESPN’s
James Walker reported last week that Miami’s coaching staff
“doesn’t seem confident in the rushing attack”
and it’s hard to blame them if that is the case, although
there’s probably more to it that. Lamar Miller has been
dealing with an ankle injury for at least two weeks and LT Branden
Albert has played just over a third of the team snaps while the
majority of the other offensive linemen (C Mike Pouncey not included)
have graded quite poorly as run blockers so far.
Outlook for October and beyond –
With their coach reportedly on the hot seat again, it’s
really anybody’s guess if the Dolphins will once again rally
behind HC Joe Philbin – starting this week in London against
the Jets. It seems unlikely that a date with New York will fix
the run game, but a three-game run after the Week 5 bye will have
Miami facing Tennessee, Houston and New England – two of
which have shown a vulnerability against the run. Injuries to
Albert and Miller notwithstanding, the Dolphins’ defense
simply has not lived up to preseason expectations, which helps
explain why Miami is averaging a meager 18 carries just as much
– if not more – than the lack of commitment to the
running game. Getting healthy and adapting the defensive scheme
so that prized free-agent acquisition DT Ndamukong Suh can freelance
more often like he did in Detroit would be a good start which,
in turn, might help Miami be a more competitive team and allow
Miller the opportunity to get going at the same time.
This offense had the potential to be one of the most explosive
in the league before the start of the season, but Teddy Bridgewater’s
“not-ready-for-primetime” performance in Week 1 on
Monday Night Football likely got OC Norv Turner to thinking that
an Adrian Peterson-centric approach was a better option than one
that catered to his second-year quarterback. As a result, the
Vikings are running just about as much as any team in the league.
As long as that’s the case, the anticipated breakout that
many expected from Charles Johnson isn’t going to happen.
Mike Wallace also figures to be underutilized as well for a passing
attack that is averaging less than 25 attempts and whose top priority
will be reducing the potential for turnovers.
Outlook for October and beyond – With all of its weapons,
Minnesota would be wise to reevaluate the offense after its Week
5 bye. Not only does the schedule present an opportunity for the
Vikings to air it out a bit more often, but games later in the
season (such as Green Bay, Atlanta, Seattle and Arizona) will
force the Vikings to rely on the passing game more than they do
now. Of course, Peterson will remain the focal point of the offense
going forward - just as he should have been in Week 1 versus San
Francisco.
New England – 71 rush attempts, 133 pass
attempts (Returning offensive line starters: 2)
No team in the league consistently does a better job of reinventing
itself offensively every year than the Patriots, who saw the preseason
emergence of Dion Lewis as an opportunity to pass at a much heavier
clip than the 58-percent rate they did last year (65.2 percent
through three games this year). Now that LeGarrette Blount is
back and New England will have a bye week to reassess, it’s
fair to wonder if OC Josh McDaniels will dial up more running
plays, use Lewis and the passing game to try to build early leads,
or only lean on Blount to chew clock or convert at the goal line.
Surprisingly, only RT Sebastian Vollmer has a positive run-blocking
grade among New England linemen, although tight ends Rob Gronkowski
and Scott Chandler have scored well in that regard as well.
Outlook for October and beyond – As with anything regarding
HC Bill Belichick, it’s anybody’s guess as to whether
or not Blount will return to more of a lead-back role after this
week’s bye or if Lewis maintains his current role or the
Patriots decide to utilize Blount as the early-down back and Lewis
is the passing-down back as many expected entering the season.
The last option seems the most likely given Lewis’s size
(5-8, 195), but this is Belichick we are talking about after all.
Tom Brady is on pace to shatter his previous career high in attempts
(on pace for 709), so expect a bit of regression in that area
as the season moves on.
New Orleans – 71 rush attempts, 124 pass
attempts (Returning offensive line starters: 3)
The Saints have been a downright confusing team offensively to
this point. Brandin Cooks has been a central figure in the passing
game early and late in games, but virtually ignored during the
middle of each contests (six catches for 47 yards in the first
quarter, two catches for seven yards in the second quarter, one
catch for 13 yards in the third quarter and seven catches for
123 yards in the fourth). As New Orleans’ only dynamic wideout,
this is the kind of trend that must change. HC Sean Payton essentially
called himself out for his use (or lack thereof) of C.J. Spiller
in Week 3 after easing him back into the fold in Week 2. In short,
the Saints’ top two passing-game playmakers have somehow
been underutilized on a team that has held a lead for less than
a quarter combined over its first three games. Khiry Robinson
(4.0 YPC) has been a more effective runner than Mark Ingram (3.3),
yet has seen half as many carries (39-20). It’s also quite
notable that Ingram is tied with Cooks for the team lead in receptions
(16). Also bear in mind when taking a look at the lopsided run-pass
ratio above that New Orleans’ desire was to be a more balanced
offense the season. In addition, Brandon Coleman has been surprisingly
silent since Week 1, losing a lot of anticipated targets to Willie
Snead and a declining Marques Colston.
Outlook for October and beyond – Assuming Drew Brees is
able to get his shoulder fully functional at some point over the
next few weeks, it would seem as though the Saints’ offense
is more than capable of breaking out pretty soon. It has to be
as obvious to Payton by now that Cooks needs to consistently see
10-plus targets – the amount of separation he creates on
quick-breaking routes like slants has to be among the best in
the NFL – and Spiller is a mismatch for just about any linebacker
and the most talented running back on the roster. As Payton continues
to come to grips with both of these facts, expect Cooks and Spiller
to become the primary targets for Brees (or possibly Luke McCown
if Brees’ shoulder becomes a long-term issue).
New York Giants – 78 rush attempts, 108
pass attempts (Returning offensive line starters: 0)
The Giants have actually graded out better in run-blocking and
pass-blocking than I would have expected through three games,
but it seems like they are one of many teams still figuring out
what they are in 2015. New York lacks any kind of commitment to
Rashad Jennings, seemingly trying to force Andre Williams into
a role as a goal-line back – despite the fact they are roughly
the same size – in order to justify the fourth-round draft
pick they spent on Williams in 2014. Shane Vereen’s role
has been what was expected, but as the team’s most explosive
running back, it would be nice to see him slightly busier than
he has been to this point. Rueben Randle’s huge Week 3 was
nice to see, although most of his production came on a fluky 41-yard
touchdown catch; his high level of involvement will probably need
to become more of the norm since Victor Cruz continues to suffer
setbacks with his injured calf.
Outlook for October and beyond – As much as I’m sure
HC Tom Coughlin doesn’t want to admit it, the Giants need
to be a pass-heavy team if they have any hopes of making a postseason
run this season. That means a heavy dose of Odell Beckham Jr.,
who should be a shoo-in for roughly 10-12 targets per week, and
a heavier dose of Vereen, who was signed in the offseason to give
the Giants the big-play element out of the backfield they have
lacked for ages. Given Cruz’s inability to put in a full
week of practice, the deciding factor in how good New York’s
passing game will be whether or not Randle can overcome the knee
tendinitis that has slowed him off and on for over a year; his
contributions are important as they would give opponents someone
else to think about besides Beckham in the passing game. That
kind of thing can be hard to predict and probably the main reason
why owners shouldn’t count too much on any Giant outside
of OBJ for the foreseeable future.
New York Jets – 79 rush attempts, 116
pass attempts (Returning offensive line starters: 4)
The Jets were more run-heavy than pass-heavy as they controlled
the action against the Browns and Colts in the first two games
of the season, but saw that balance fall completely out of whack
when they fell behind 24-0 late in the second quarter versus the
Eagles last week. The approach made sense, especially considering
that Chris Ivory did not play and Philadelphia’s ability
to stop the run, although game flow obviously played the most
important role in the 58:16 pass-run ratio.
Outlook for October and beyond – The Jets are already the
team now they will likely be in the month or two. They could stand
to get Ivory a bit more involved in the passing game because he
is clearly the team’s most talented running back, but it
appears the coaching staff loves what Bilal Powell brings in that
area. New York will continue to force-feed Brandon Marshall, although
Eric Decker will clearly be heavily involved when the matchups
dictate it (such was the case against Indianapolis in Week 2 before
his injury). The inevitable Ryan Fitzpatrick fade will probably
happen over the next month or so, but this is a team and an offense
that is built for success so long as it remembers that Ivory,
Marshall and Decker are its most important playmakers.
The Raiders are throwing over 65 percent of the time so far this
season, but game flow is to blame for a lot of that. Oakland controlled
the majority of its Week 3 victory over Cleveland and posted a
30:32 run-pass ratio, which is probably just about what HC Jack
Del Rio would like to see on a weekly basis. The Raiders were
in catch-up mode for most of their game against the Bengals in
Week 1 and in a shootout against the Ravens in Week 2, so it’s
fair to say that Oakland will probably look like the Week 3 version
of itself this week at Chicago and in just about any other game
where the opposing offense cannot or refuses to take advantage
of the Raiders’ woeful secondary.
Outlook for October and beyond – The Raiders are relevant
in fantasy for the first time in ages and that’s a good
thing, especially since it appears they will be able to sustain
it. With that said, their offense isn’t multifaceted enough
yet to compete with defenses such as the Broncos or the Jets,
each of whom they will face over the next four contests. I’m
still a bit leery about Latavius Murray holding up as the featured
back given his injury history, but his hold on the job is secure.
There’s also no questioning the connection that Derek Carr
and Amari Cooper have already built. Interestingly, Michael Crabtree
(33) has more targets than Cooper (31), although Crabtree’s
16-target “effort” in Week 2 is the primary cause
of that. The rookie has already faced some of the better secondaries
he will see this year and performed admirably, so his stock is
on the rise. Seth Roberts has essentially taken on the role I
had hoped rookie TE Clive Walford would fill at the beginning
of the season, although it might only be a matter of time before
Walford becomes the middle-of-the-field/slot option he was drafted
to be.
PHI may not hit their offensive stride
until November.
Philadelphia – 72 rush attempts, 117 pass attempts
(Returning offensive line starters: 4)
Where do we start with the Eagles? Let’s not pretend that
a good game against the Jets last week erases all of the problems
from the first two losses. The Eagles were able to sustain some
offense in the first half (while also getting plenty of help from
their defense and special teams) and New York played into their
hands by generally coming up empty on its early drives, which
typically feeds into HC Chip Kelly’s up-tempo offense. The
good news is Philadelphia’s offensive line held up much
better than it had previously, which is obviously going to be
key moving forward if the Eagles hope to get a decent return on
what they invested in DeMarco Murray. The bad news is the Eagles
haven’t come close to putting together a complete 60-minute
effort yet and lack the mobile quarterback that can help overcome
the simplicity of the scheme.
Outlook for October and beyond – It’s not quite time
to panic yet in Philadelphia and last week’s effort is proof
of that. It is important to note virtually no offensive skill-position
player – outside of Jordan Matthews and Darren Sproles –
has been an Eagle for more than a year (Mathews and Sproles are
only in their second season under Kelly). Don’t be surprised
if the getting-to-know-you-process currently happening on the
offensive of side of the ball doesn’t carry over into the
second half of the season. Players such as Nelson Agholor and
even Zach Ertz aren’t going to be huge factors when Kelly
is struggling to get production out of his No. 1 option on offense
(Murray). The smart money is on Philadelphia looking much better
around November, if only because teams that experience so much
turnover in one offseason generally take that long to learn how
to play together. However, the owners who drafted Murray with
hopes he would eventually become the bell-cow are likely to be
disappointed this season; the coaching staff loves Ryan Mathews
and last week’s effort will go a long way into making sure
he remains fairly significant part of the offense. I would also
expect Sam Bradford’s production to pick up once the running
game proves that it can carry the offense on a more consistent
basis.
The Steelers already have to be wondering if it’s just
not going to be their year. The team learned that Martavis Bryant
would miss the first four games due to suspension in late August
and already knew Le'Veon Bell would be sidelined for three games
at that point, although he was later able to get his suspension
reduced to two games. As luck would have it, Pittsburgh lost Ben
Roethlisberger in the same game in which it got Bell back, meaning
the Steelers are unlikely to have the offensive cast they had
hoped would be in place for at least another month. In other words,
just about everything we’ve seen from Pittsburgh to this
point is inconsequential, other than perhaps the fact the Steelers
wasted no time giving Bell a full workload.
Outlook for October and beyond – As I just discussed, Pittsburgh
probably isn’t going to be the team it hoped it would be
until November. In the meantime, we should expect a heavy dose
of Bell and a much more vertical-based passing game (one would
assume built off play-action) than we have been accustomed to
with Roethlisberger. There’s no way anyone should expect
Antonio Brown to perform at the level he has over the last two
or so years, but I would anticipate his consistency taking a bigger
hit than his overall production while Roethlisberger is out. Bell’s
workload should not be in question and Bryant was already an inconsistent,
big-play dependent receiver to begin with, so from that perspective
I’m not sure much changes in Pittsburgh without Big Ben.
With Michael Vick at the controls, I would expect the Steelers
to be much more dependent on the running game.
San Diego – 84 rush attempts, 108 pass
attempts (Returning offensive line starters: 1)
For the second straight season, injuries have forced the Chargers
to reshuffle their offensive line multiple times. Only RT Joe
Barksdale (214 snaps) and LT King Dunlap (198) have come anywhere
close to playing 90 percent of the snaps. In fact, it is so bad
at the moment that San Diego did not have any of its left side
– Dunlap, LG Orlando Franklin or C Chris Watt – practice
on Wednesday in Week 4 leading up to a home game against the Browns.
Antonio Gates still has one game left on his suspension and backup
TE Ladarius Green has reportedly suffered three concussions in
less than a year. This kind of M.A.S.H. unit obviously makes it
difficult for the Chargers to establish any continuity and their
struggling run defense isn’t helping matters because it
keeps putting Philip Rivers in a position where he is forced to
throw behind the aforementioned injury-ravaged offensive line.
Outlook for October and beyond – San Diego obviously has
the skill-position talent to make some noise, but it’s going
to be nearly impossible for HC Mike McCoy or OC Frank Reich to
execute their vision of using rookie Melvin Gordon 15-20 per game
as long as the offensive line is in shambles. Getting Gates back
will be huge because he is such a big reliable target that Rivers
trusts as much as any quarterback trusts any tight end in the
league. His presence gives Rivers the kind of short-area target
that can often help a quarterback an extra 3-5 hits per game.
The Chargers ideally want to be a more balanced offense, but in
order for that to happen, the line has to get healthy and defense
has to be stouter so that San Diego’s isn’t always
playing from behind.
For some reason, the Seahawks have chosen to run more conventional
sets and use less of Russell Wilson’s ability to create
so far this season. Seattle does not appear to be using nearly
as many zone-read plays, which can often stimulate a run game
when a mobile quarterback is paired with a runner such as Marshawn
Lynch. The Seahawks haven’t exactly had the greatest offensive
line talent since Wilson arrived, but offensive line coach Tom
Cable has consistently coaxed a lot out of his pupils each and
every year and I expect 2015 will be no different. The one difference,
however, could be Lynch’s ability to take another year of
pounding. (Is it the beginning of the end for a 29-year-old back
or just a coincidence?) Despite needing extra time to get warmed
up in Week 3, “Beast Mode” passed the eyeball test
before he was pulled at halftime due to a hamstring issue. The
fact that rookie Thomas Rawls ran for over 100 yards – most
of which came in the second half against Chicago – suggests
Cable is on the verge of working his magic once again.
Outlook for October and beyond – Denver and Seattle were
two of the inspirations for this two-part piece because I believe
they are the two teams that have the most to offer fantasy owners
that are starving for production from their running backs. While
I expect the Broncos to struggle on the ground until midseason,
I tend to believe the Seahawks’ “arrival” to
come a bit sooner since their shift in personnel wasn’t
as dramatic. Establishing Jimmy Graham on a more consistent basis
would also probably go a long way towards helping Seattle regain
the rushing edge it has become accustomed to over the years. But
more than anything, it would be unwise for OC Darrell Bevell not
to continue using Wilson’s playmaking ability on the outside
and Lynch’s power running. The threat of the zone-read has
been one of the most important factors in helping Seattle remain
an above-average offense. As far as Lynch is concerned, I’m
not concerned yet. While I cannot speak to how much more punishment
his body can withstand, I haven’t seen a decline in the
combination of quickness and physicality that makes him special
yet.
San Francisco – 99 rush attempts, 91 pass
attempts (Returning offensive line starters: 2)
The Niners wasted little time in Week 1 establishing who they
wanted to be and have spent the last two games being the team
that most expected them to be after a chaotic offseason. San Francisco
can run the ball and needs to stick to that if it has any hopes
of finishing around .500 this season. Unfortunately, the secondary
figured to be one of the team’s most obvious weaknesses
and the defensive backs have been exposed as the Niners have been
shredded by a pair of elite passing teams over the last two weeks,
which will make staying run-heavy a challenge. Anquan Boldin is
still a capable receiver and Vernon Davis can still stretch the
field, but both players need Colin Kaepernick to be slightly more
patient in order for this offense to be more than just Carlos
Hyde running the ball.
Outlook for October and beyond – There’s no getting
around the fact that San Francisco is going to be a bad team this
year, which is what made its Week 1 domination of Minnesota so
surprising. As more and more teams try to copy Arizona’s
Week 3 defensive plan (essentially play Kaepernick to the right
side of the field when he throws), it will be interesting to see
if the Niners have a Plan B. Kaepernick’s only two touchdown
passes this season have come against Pittsburgh’s weak secondary
and even that was in extreme garbage time. Much like Seattle,
the Niners would be wise to get their quarterback outside the
pocket more often and utilize more zone-read because it is becoming
clearer by the week that Kaepernick probably will not be make
his living in the pocket anytime soon.
St. Louis – 57 rush attempts, 88 pass
attempts (Returning offensive line starters: 1)
In a day and an age in which patience is something most teams,
coaching staffs and front offices don’t possess, the Rams
should be commended for playing the waiting game with the players
that will soon be carrying their offense (Todd Gurley and Brian
Quick). It is telling that to Tavon Austin is tied for the team
lead in rushing (57 yards) but certainly unexpected that St. Louis
is grading out in the top half of the league in run-blocking,
which obviously bodes well for Gurley if and when he can find
his pre-injury form this season. Although Kenny Britt went over
100 yards receiving in Week 3, the Rams desperately need a player
like Quick – who has been a “healthy” scratch
the first three games – that commands respect from opposing
cornerbacks and defensive coordinators so that Gurley doesn’t
have to face loaded boxes and Austin can be used in more of the
Percy Harvin-type role he was expected to fill when he was drafted.
Outlook for October and beyond – The Rams are yet another
team that we are waiting on to establish an identity, simply because
the two players that will likely become their primary offensive
weapons over the next month or so have seen so little of the field
thus far. It’s entirely possible Gurley will be slightly
disappointing this year since most players require more than a
year to fully recover from ACL surgery. However, I wouldn’t
want bet against him either since his talent is the type that
only comes along once every five years or so at his position.
I fully expect Quick to pick up where he left off last season
before his shoulder injury after he returns to the field, which
reportedly could be as early as this week.
Tampa Bay – 81 rush attempts, 90 pass
attempts (Returning offensive line starters: 2)
Give HC Lovie Smith credit for one thing, he is sticking to his
ball-control offensive philosophy regardless of whether it works
or not. To get a sense of how committed to the run he is, Tampa
Bay’s league-worst minus-40.8 run-blocking grade per Pro
Football Focus is just a few tenths of a point shy of doubling
up Seattle, which has graded out at minus-20.7. For further perspective,
San Diego had the worst-run blocking grade in the league per PFF
at minus-51.2, so the Bucs are certainly on pace to make the Chargers’
run-blocking unit from a season ago look like a group of All-Pros
by comparison.
Outlook for October and beyond – Whether it’s the
running game “threat” or not, the Bucs actually rank
in the middle of the pack in terms of pass-blocking, according
to PFF. While I doubt Smith will allow OC Dirk Koetter to utilize
a pass-heavy attack at any point this season, I’m of the
belief that Tampa Bay lacks the strength and skill up front to
support a decent rushing attack, so allowing Jameis Winston to
stretch the field with Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson (and Austin
Seferian-Jenkins when he returns) may be the fastest way to get
a bit more production out of the running game. Offenses that are
unable to line up and blow defenses off the ball sometimes need
to change the math in order to get a running game to be productive,
so I’m fairly certain Koetter wants Evans to take over the
Julio Jones’ role in his offense and start drawing double
teams as quickly as possible. It is pure speculation on my part,
but the sooner that Smith’s conservative nature stops Koetter
from running his offense, the better it will be for all parties
involved.
Why is it that front offices get all giddy when they find a mobile
AND accurate quarterback, but coaches are scared to death to let
him use his athleticism? Such is the case with rookie Marcus Mariota,
who is obviously holding his own as a passer despite not utilizing
his legs very often (something the coaching staff is waffling
on letting him do). The Titans’ ground game is a mess in
large part because HC Ken Whisenhunt is nearly incapable of picking
one running back and sticking with him. Last but not least, Whisenhunt
is reportedly hesitant to “overload” Dorial Green-Beckham,
although I question if any football player – whether he
is a raw rookie receiver or not – has ever felt overloaded
with snap counts of nine, 12 and 14 over his first three NFL games.
Outlook for October and beyond – Once upon a time, I had
a great deal of respect for Whisenhunt as a play-caller during
his days as the offensive coordinator in Pittsburgh. Suffice it
to say I’m on the other end of the spectrum when it comes
to his ability to run a team and, as such, I find it virtually
impossible to predict what Tennessee will do offensively with
him in charge going forward, other than consistently making the
wrong decisions in regards to playing time and strategy. Mariota
doesn’t need to run as much as 2012 Robert Griffin III in
order to open up this offense and has shown the ability to protect
himself much better than RG3 ever has. Whether or not the Titans
still have any belief in Bishop Sankey, it would behoove them
to stick with one back in order to allow that player to build
some chemistry with his offensive line. And ask yourself if you
believe giving Harry Douglas more snaps than any other Tennessee
receiver is a good idea. Somewhat like Martavis Bryant, DGB doesn’t
need to be a full-time player to be productive, but Whisenhunt
is only kidding himself if he believes that 35 snaps through three
games is helping his second-round rookie wideout develop.
Washington – 94 rush attempts, 107 pass
attempts (Returning offensive line starters: 3)
On a positive note, the Redskins have started the process of
building a powerful run-heavy offense that could look like the
ones we’ve seen new GM Scot McCloughan build in San Francisco
and Seattle in his previous two NFL stops. It’s also appears
as if Washington has found the running back in Matt Jones that
will help McCloughan execute his vision. With that said, it is
highly questionable whether or not HC Jay Gruden has helped any
of his quarterbacks develop into better players under his watch.
For what it’s worth, the Redskins rank 29th in PFF’s
run-blocking metric (minus-20.1), although it is fair to question
how much the offensive line is to blame for that poor number.
Opponents know they don’t have to respect Kirk Cousins and
Washington has been without DeSean Jackson for the better part
of the season, so defensive coordinators can be a little bit more
liberal in terms of how many defenders they have within 10 to
15 yards of the line of scrimmage.
Outlook for October and beyond – It has long baffled me
how today’s coaches reward running backs after huge performances
and the Redskins are a perfect example. In the opener, Alfred
Morris played 41 snaps and ran for 121 yards. For most players,
a 121-yard rushing effort in the opener following a 1,000-yard
season would be enough for him to keep his job for a little while.
In Week 2, it was Jones’ turn to shine, however, playing
nearly as many snaps as Morris (34-31) while running for 123 yards
and two touchdowns in Washington’s win over the Rams. One
week later, Jones saw twice as many snaps as Morris, but neither
the rookie’s breakout performance nor the receiving abilities
his coaches raved about during the summer were enough to keep
him from getting out snapped by Chris Thompson. The phasing out
of Morris in this offense was easy enough to predict, but each
of the Redskins’ backs have to be wondering what their role
is from game to game and why one great performance isn’t
rewarded with the guarantee of significant playing time the following
week. The one thing that is clear in Washington is the Redskins
want to run the ball and common sense would suggest that Jones
– as the hand-picked player of the current regime –
will get his shot to secure the feature-back role by no later
than the second half of the season.
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.