As I enter my eighth year of writing this postseason column, I hope
I have helped some of you along the way supplement your regular-season
fantasy prize winnings.
Just as I have since the beginning, I
will share my thoughts on the NFL.com
Playoff Challenge and postseason money leagues with Fuzzy's
Fantasy Football. My goal over the next four articles will
be to help each of you through your decision-making process as
you attempt to boost your bottom line.
NFL.com
For a complete rundown of how players will score fantasy points
for your team, click on the “Rules & Prizing”
link on the NFL.com
entry page. Much of the content immediately below is included
on the “How to Play” page, although the information
I provide below should be more than enough to follow along easily.
The requirements: one QB, two RBs, two WRs, one TE, one K
and one D/ST. You will earn fantasy points based on their on-field
performance during their game, and if your player's team wins,
you will have the option to carry that player over to the next
round, where he will earn a bonus point modifier to his score
(which will be referred to as 2x, 3x and 4x from here on out).
For example, if you pick Aaron
Rodgers in the Wild Card round and the Packers win, you can
carry him over to the Divisional Round, and earn two times (2x)
the points he earns in his divisional round game. If Green Bay
wins again, you can carry Rodgers into the Conference Championship
round for 3x the points and, if the Packers make the Super Bowl,
you can earn 4x the points. In addition, a user can select a player/defense
in the Wild Card round even if their team has a bye into the Divisional
Round. In this case, the user would not earn any points for the
Wild Card round, but be eligible to earn 2x points in the Divisional
round, since the player was on the team’s roster for two weekly
scoring periods. Further bonus point modifiers would also apply
as long as that player’s team continues to advance in the NFL
Playoffs.
Before we get into the picks, let’s briefly review the rules
and how we may use them to our advantage: 1) passing TDs are worth
four points, so passing yards are valued more highly here than
in the Fuzzy’s leagues I’ll discuss later; 2) all
field goals under 50 yards are worth three points, which means
we are more concerned about volume of field goals than distance
– unless we can find a kicker who regularly converts from
50-plus (DraftKings does not use kickers); 3) this is a non-PPR
format, which obviously favors the big-play threats (both Fuzzy's
and DraftKings are PPR); and 4) team wins are worth five points,
so picking a “winning” defense is worth almost a touchdown
prior to factoring in the modifiers.
Let's get the No. 1 rule of this game out of the way right now:
if you have a good feeling about which
two teams will meet in the Super Bowl, build your lineup exclusively
from players from those two teams. Most previous playoff
challenge champions' lineups are made up entirely of Super Bowl
participants. (In other words, it is important to project the
Super Bowl entrants first and figure out what players from those
teams to use second.) The multipliers are everything in this contest,
so playing the week-to-week matchups is nearly meaningless. Think
about it this way: if I told you that your regular-season fantasy
team's scoring would double in Week 2, triple in Week 3 and quadruple
in Week 4 if you simply left it the same, would it affect your
draft strategy? Of course it would. The big week your team might
post in the first week of this challenge - in the somewhat unlikely
event you played the matchups to a tee - is going to seem rather
insignificant in early February when every passing touchdown is
worth 16 points and every other TD is worth 24 and the top teams
in this competition are scoring 200-300 (or perhaps more) points
per week.
As noted earlier, the main challenges are (in order): 1) correctly
predicting the two conference winners and 2) forecasting the best
fantasy players in that hypothetical Super Bowl matchup. With
that in mind, I'm going to focus most of my time talking about
the teams in the first part of this section and focus on the individuals
a bit later. Much like in daily fantasy, the chalk plays probably
aren’t going to win. (Of the hundreds of thousands of entries
NFL.com receives, how many do you think are going to line up their
fantasy squads exclusively with players from New England and Dallas?)
Even if you nail the correct one- and/or two-seeds, how many other
owners do you think did the same? In short,
be bold! It's a free contest after all, so crashing and
burning - even if it is in front of an audience like what I'm
doing - isn't such a bad thing when you consider the reward is
much greater than the risk involved.
Below you will find the 12 playoff teams ranked in order of the
(percentage) odds I believe they have of making the Super Bowl.
I'll spend a bit of time after that talking about each team and
attempt to nail the bracket before moving talking a little DFS.
1. New England (70%)
2. Dallas (33%)
3. Atlanta (33%)
4. Green Bay (22%)
5. Pittsburgh (18%)
6. Kansas City (9%)
7. NY Giants (10%)
8. Detroit (1%)
9. Seattle (1%)
10. Miami (1%)
11. Houston (1%)
12. Oakland (1%)
New England - The Patriots are
far from a perfect team, but I'm not sure that matters much in
what strikes me as the worst playoff field in recent memory. (More
on that later.) It hurts being without Rob Gronkowski, but top-level
quarterback play and the league's top scoring defense should be
enough to beat out a lackluster AFC field.
Dallas - The combination of a rookie
quarterback and rookie running back to go along with a no-name
defense isn't usually a recipe for a No. 1 seed. At some point,
one would think those "fatal flaws" would get exposed,
but so far, only the New York Giants have cracked the Cowboys'
code. A team capable of trading points with the Cowboys - since
there is a complete lack of sound defenses in the NFC field -
could end Dallas' honeymoon season. Which leads us to…
Atlanta - The league's highest-scoring
and most well-rounded offense has scored at least 33 points in
four consecutive games and at least 28 in six straight. The league's
25th-ranked total defense and 27th-ranked scoring defense will
almost certainly come back to bite the Falcons at some point,
but folks need to understand a good chunk of that production came
with Atlanta usually holding a multiple-score lead.
Green Bay - Last year, the Packers
seemingly had no answers on offense heading into the playoffs.
This season, they are leaking so much oil in terms of defensive
personnel that a long playoff run seems unlikely. Aaron Rodgers
is always a good bet to keep Green Bay competitive, but I'm not
sure this team has the goods to solve an impressive Giants' defense
this week, much less win back-to-back road games, presumably in
Atlanta and Dallas.
Pittsburgh - The Steelers are easily
the most likely AFC team to knock off the Patriots if any team
is going to do it, simply because they have what the other teams
in the conference do not: offensive firepower. The defense has
improved over the course of the season but has done so by becoming
one of the more blitz-heavy teams in the league. Along with trying
to win in New England in January, living by the blitz is a recipe
for disaster when trying to upset the Patriots.
Kansas City - The Chiefs come to
this year's playoff party with more established offensive weapons,
especially Tyreek Hill, but with the same ho-hum quarterback (Alex
Smith) and a lesser defense than the one that helped them dominate
the second half of last season. If we were able to combine Pittsburgh's
offense with Kansas City's defense this year, we would have a
team capable of beating the Patriots. Alas, I do not foresee a
Smith-led offense solving the riddle of Bill Belichick.
NY Giants - The Giants probably
have the best actual defense in the playoff field, but Steve Spagnuolo's
unit isn't on par with the 1985 Bears or 2000 Ravens, so New York's
limited offense is probably going to get exposed. Sure, Eli Manning
has playoff history on his side, but I find it nearly impossible
to believe he is simply going to turn it on this month after playing
so poorly for the majority of the season. The running game is
showing some signs of life, but it (and the offensive line) is
not operating at a level anywhere close to where it did in 2007
and 2011.
Detroit - The fact I have five
teams listed at one percent should provide some perspective on
just how shallow I believe this field is. The Lions are in about
as bad of shape in the secondary as Green Bay is and lacks the
offensive firepower of the Packers. Assuming Detroit wins its
first playoff game since 1991 in Seattle this weekend, the Lions
will then travel to Dallas the following week to face a Cowboys'
offense they didn't have a prayer of stopping in Week 16.
Seattle - It's getting harder and
harder to believe the Seahawks are the last team to defeat the
Patriots, because that Week 10 matchup was the last time they
didn't look average at best against a decent team. The offensive
line hasn't taken the same step forward that Tom Cable's units
usually do and the defense has looked quite vulnerable without
S Earl Thomas. Losing Tyler Lockett in Week 16 robbed the offense
of its best deep threat.
Miami - Matt Moore is a capable
backup. The Dolphins spanked the Steelers at home in Week 6. Jay
Ajayi may be an emerging star. All that is good and well, but
as long as Miami has to travel to Pittsburgh in January and face
a quarterback who is as good at home as Ben Roethlisberger, the
odds are going to be long for the visitor. The Dolphins' offensive
line isn't in as good of shape now as it was in the first meeting
and we've already established Big Ben probably isn't going to
be as bad. Miami could be without top corner Byron Maxwell and
hasn't done much against opposing runners lately, which should
mean Le'Veon Bell has a field day.
Houston - Poor ESPN. If it isn't
enough "The Worldwide Leader" gets stuck with the worst
wild-card matchup every year (usually scheduled in the early Saturday
window), it has the added bonus of trying to sell perhaps the
league's worst starting quarterback this season going toe-to-toe
with a third-string rookie signal-caller who saw his first action
of the year in Week 17. The Texans could do a bit of damage in
this postseason simply because they own the NFL's top defense
and Lamar Miller should be as healthy as he's been all season
after two weeks off, but Brock Osweiler is certainly capable of
melting down in Brian Hoyer-like fashion too.
Oakland - Connor Cook should be
a solid pro one day and definitely already has a solid supporting
cast, not to mention one of the league's best offensive lines,
in his corner this weekend. However, the defense hasn't played
up to its talent for most of the season. That's a problem when
you consider Derek Carr isn't going to be around to be bail the
Raiders out anytime soon. Even if Oakland escapes Houston with
a win - a distinct possibility - the reward would likely be a
visit to Gillette Stadium. If Miami upsets Pittsburgh, the Raiders
would travel to Arrowhead Stadium. No thanks.
With that summary out of the way, let's next focus on my week-to-week
playoff projections and then the players I feel are realistic
alternatives for this four-week sprint to the finish:
AFC - Wildcard: Texans over Raiders,
Steelers over Dolphins NFC - Wildcard: Lions over Seahawks,
Packers over Giants
AFC - Divisional: Patriots over
Texans, Steelers over Chiefs NFC - Divisional: Cowboys over Lions,
Falcons over Packers
AFC - Conference Championship:
Patriots over Steelers NFC - Conference Championship: Falcons
over Cowboys
Super Bowl: Patriots vs. Falcons
It pays to be contrarian in large field
tournaments.
Quarterbacks
Tom Brady/Alex Smith/Ben Roethlisberger/Dak Prescott/Matt Ryan/Russell
Wilson/Aaron Rodgers/Eli Manning
The call: Matt
Ryan. It is a contrarian pick to be sure, and
that is exactly why I am making it, although I certainly have
other reasons. Most of the field - at least the crowd that understands
the power of the multiplier in this contest - is going to be on
Brady and with good reason. If the Falcons are going to the big
game for the first time since Jamal Anderson was making the "Dirty
Bird" popular, it will be because the Falcons are rolling
on offense. New England doesn't need to win that way, as it possesses
the league's top scoring defense and has shown it is more than
happy to ride the ground game whenever it wants.
Smith doesn't have enough upside to play in this format even
if I thought the Chiefs could win out. Roethlisberger runs way
too hot-and-cold for my tastes, especially when it comes to his
play at home versus the road. Prescott would be my third choice
behind Ryan and Brady, but the Cowboys' best path to Houston is
riding Ezekiel Elliott as much is possible. Wilson is very fortunate
every time he gets up from his weekly scheduled beating behind
his offense line; I obviously don't believe the Seahawks are even
a good bet to win their first game, much less three in a row.
Manning has topped 201 yards passing only once in his last six
games, posting a 9:6 touchdown-to-interception ratio over that
time. Pass. It's hard not to love Rodgers in any fantasy format,
but the Packers simply lack enough of a running game or defense
to roll the dice on his upside in this challenge.
The call: LeGarrette
Blount and Devonta
Freeman. Based on the odds I presented earlier,
there are really only about six realistic choices - Elliott, Freeman,
Coleman, Blount, White and Lewis. The Patriots are probably going
to be playing with the lead a lot this postseason, which means
Blount should remain busy. As much as I hate hitching my wagon
to any back who is a one-trick pony, scoring 18 touchdowns for
a prohibitive playoff favorite isn't such a bad thing. White and
Lewis are essentially splitting breather-back duties, so unless
your crystal ball forecasts an early playoff injury to Blount
in this non-PPR format, I can't get behind either one as a contrarian
selection. It's pretty clear Freeman is still the lead dog in
Atlanta, so although Coleman's big-play ability could sabotage
him at any time this postseason, Freeman's workload has been consistent
enough to make this investment pay off if the Falcons win the
NFC. I expect Elliott to be easily the top-owned running back
in this competition, and he'll be the smartest pick of the bunch
if Dallas lives up to its seed.
A Bell-Elliott stack in this competition would be a great marriage
in that most experienced owners in this competition aren't going
to ride with Bell given the Steelers' low odds of making it to
the Super Bowl, making the stack a contrarian play with huge upside.
I think New England ultimately presents too much of an obstacle
for Pittsburgh, but stranger things have happened. Ware has faded
badly since coming out of the gates like a ball of fire, while
Miller, Murray, Washington, Richard and Ajayi are attached to
teams with very little chance to compete past next weekend. Ditto
for Rawls, Collins, Prosise, Perkins, Jennings and Zenner. Montgomery
would be an interesting pick if he saw a more consistent workload,
but the degree to which Green Bay is using Michael and Ripkowski
to spell the former receiver makes him a poor bet, especially
in this non-PPR format.
The call: Julian
Edelman and Julio
Jones. Once again, the list above appears much
more daunting than it actually is. Of the bunch, I'd say Edelman,
Brown, Bryant, Jones, Nelson and OBJ are the only ones worth seriously
considering. Edelman has seen fewer than 11 targets only once
since Week 11 and comes attached to the most likely team of the
12 to reach the Super Bowl. Brown is a contrarian pick in the
same way Le'Veon Bell is and obviously has the same kind of massive
upside that is sure to have a lower ownership percentage than
most would expect. Bryant has the same kind of touchdown upside
he typically does, but there's some question whether or not he
is even his quarterback's favorite receiver. If the NFC side of
things goes as I predict it will, Jones could have the kind of
postseason we haven't seen from a receiver since Larry Fitzgerald
in 2008 considering the weak secondaries he will likely face.
If you believe Rodgers is good enough to overcome Green Bay's
aforementioned shortcomings, then Nelson should be your choice
along with Edelman. Nelson has essentially made Cobb an afterthought
by spending nearly a third of his snaps in the slot and is easily
Rodgers' favorite target. If recent form holds and a strong defense
attached to a one-dimensional offense is good enough to make it
to Super Sunday, then Beckham makes a ton of sense as a huge upside
pick who will have a rather small ownership percentage.
Of the players I haven't already mentioned, the other wideouts
I would give minor consideration would be Gabriel and Adams. Atlanta
does a great job of setting Gabriel up for huge plays, which tends
to work well in standard scoring and helps owners get past the
fact he doesn't ever see more than six targets. If the Packers
play two or more playoff games, Adams is very likely to have at
least one blowup effort. If that performance comes in the NFC
Championship or the Super Bowl, his 3x or 4x from that game alone
could make him a better option in this challenge than Edelman
or Jones.
The call: Martellus
Bennett. This decision really boils down to which
player has the most upside between Bennett, Witten and whatever
tight end Atlanta decides to feature in a given week. Witten only
had one double-digit fantasy-point effort in standard scoring
this year, which makes the decision pretty easy. Bennett hasn't
exactly been Mr. Consistency himself, but he has found the end
zone often enough (three times in his last four games) this season
to feel comfortable with in this spot.
Green and Cook are high-upside wild-card picks, but both come
with enough injury history and inconsistency to ignore in this
challenge. Kelce would be an easy pick if he had a better quarterback
and/or more favorable path to the Super Bowl this season. Graham
has been conspicuously quiet far too often lately after starting
out fast, but he's a poor option in this contest because Seattle
could easily be one-and-done.
Kickers
Stephen Gostkowski/Cairo Santos/Chris Boswell/Dan Bailey/Matt
Bryant/Mason Crosby/Robbie Gould
The call: Matt
Bryant. Most people will go Gostkowski here and
that is the certainly the safest play. I would recommend going
with Bailey or Bryant to further differentiate your team from
the millions of other entries. Moreover, the NFC side of the playoffs
should feature slightly higher-scoring games in my opinion.
Defense/Special Teams
Patriots/Chiefs/Steelers/Cowboys/Falcons/Giants
The call: Patriots.
This really shouldn't be a difficult call. As I said in the paragraph
above, the NFC should be a bit more offense-heavy than the AFC,
plus New England led the league in scoring defense. Add in the
fact that you earn a five-point bonus for picking a winning D/ST
unit each week, and you have the potential to collect 45 points
over the course of this competition just by getting that right,
so long as the Patriots end up winning it all. The Falcons would
be my second choice for obvious reasons (read my odds above) but
also because they make high-impact plays that are rewarded in
fantasy. Ultimately, I believe they will be in a pair of high-scoring
games if they are fortunate enough to advance to the Super Bowl,
and I like D/ST units that can keep the score down. Last but not
least, I acknowledge it will not be easy for Atlanta to knock
off (presumably) Green Bay and Dallas in order to get an invite
to Houston.
DraftKings/Fuzzy’s
Since the pick-your-studs competition with Fuzzy's and the salary
cap game of DraftKings essentially use the same PPR scoring (six
points for passing touchdowns with Fuzzy's versus four fantasy
points with DraftKings; three bonus points for 300 yards passing
or 100 yards rushing/receiving versus no such bonus with Fuzzy's
being the biggest differences), I'm going to essentially combine
the two again this postseason. I think by projecting each remaining
team one week at a time, I will be able to kill two birds with
one stone in this regard.
Below you will find my position-by-position projections. The
players I have highlighted in red are ones I feel should be roster
staples. Please note I have included DraftKings' dollar value
to each player I have projected, followed by their projected point
total in that format (DraftKings and then Fuzzy's). Because I
went into some detail above, I won't spend a great deal of time
explaining each projection here - only some of the more notable
ones. Each position is sorted by my DraftKings' projected point
total.
Key for quarterbacks, running backs, receivers
and tight ends: P Yds - Passing Yards P TD - Passing Touchdowns INT - Interceptions Ru Yds - Rushing Yards Ru TD - Rushing Touchdowns Rec Yds - Receiving Yards Rec TD - Receiving Touchdowns Rec - Receptions
Without question, the highest upside plays this week are Roethlisberger
and Wilson. While Big Ben is a relatively safe play because
he'll be in Heinz Field and should have his full complement of weapons,
Wilson is facing a defense that is allowing quarterbacks to
complete 72.6 percent of their passes for the season! Of course,
the caveat is we have no idea what version of the Seattle offense
we are going to get from week to week. Like Big Ben, Wilson has
been decidedly better in familiar surroundings, especially late
this season when it became apparent he was getting closer to full
health. There's no question it's hard to go against Rodgers coming
off consecutive 300-yard, four-touchdown games, but New York has
yet to allow more than two TD throws in any game (and has already
seen Rodgers this year). While cold weather isn't typically a huge
determining factor in overall fantasy performance, common sense
needs to be applied in such situations. Sure, single-digit temps
may not affect the accuracy of quarterbacks with bigger hands, but
receivers are going to be prone to more drops. In other words, owners
cannot and should not pretend as if cold weather will have no bearing
on how efficient both offenses will be in a given game.
At running back, it is definitely Bell and then everyone else this
week. I stopped just short of projecting him for a third score,
but I think his total yardage alone could be more than enough to
make him the best play on the board. After that, I'll roll with
some mix of Miller, Ajayi and Zenner in most of my DFS lineups.
A two-week layoff - along with the league's top defense facing a
rookie making his first career start in the playoffs - should allow
Miller to assume as much of a workload as he can handle. He enjoyed
one of his finest games of the season against Oakland in the teams'
first meeting back in Week 11 in Mexico City. It'd be a mistake
to expect Ajayi to dominate the Steelers in the same way he did
back in Week 6, but he's going to be the focal point of the offense
once again for as long as Miami can keep it close. Detroit has shown
a disturbing tendency of going away from Zenner in the second half
of each of the last two games, but he has done enough over the first
30 minutes in both games to be quite usable in fantasy. I very much
feel like I projected his ceiling above, however, so it'd be a wise
move to limit how many shares of him you own in DFS. I could easily
see the Raiders feeding Murray all day after HC Jack Del Rio expressed
surprise when he learned his "starting" running back only
had five carries last week, but the combination of Houston's improved
run defense and Oakland's willingness to spread the workload in
the backfield makes him a risky target. If there is one wild-card
player at this position who I think could make some noise this week,
it would be Alex Collins. While Rawls has totaled 22 yards on 16
carries over the last two games, Collins has 83 yards on 15 attempts.
Seattle desperately needs a running game if it hopes to stick around
more than one week, as its defense is not quite the animal we have
become accustomed to over the years.
This is one week owners should not want Odell Beckham Jr. to move
around the formation. The defensive left side of the formation for
the Packers has been an absolute goldmine for fantasy production
over the course of the season, and that is typically where I see
OBJ line up. Owners need to remember Beckham gouged Green Bay for
16.6 PPR fantasy points in Week 5 despite the fact Eli Manning was
awful in that game. Unless DC Dom Capers makes stopping OBJ his
only priority, the third-year wideout could easily exceed 30 fantasy
points. He will be on every DFS and pick-your-studs roster I create.
Nelson should draw shadow coverage from Janoris Jenkins, who finished
the year as Pro Football Focus' No. 8 coverage corner. Aaron Rodgers
seems to trust Nelson in nearly every situation, and the veteran
wideout has proven to be about as matchup-proof as a receiver can
be. Brown hasn't topped 100 yards receiving since Week 10, so his
fantasy ceiling obviously isn't anywhere close to what it was last
year. He's a player certain to have a high ownership percentage
who is unlikely to live up to his price tag on DraftKings, especially
if Le'Veon Bell is rolling early and Pittsburgh can build an early
cushion. Baldwin should dominate the targets in Seattle this weekend
against the Lions' shorthanded secondary, but no other top option
on the board has a bigger variance between his ceiling and floor.
For a player with 75 catches, 997 yards and 12 touchdowns, I am
having a hard time giving serious DFS love to Adams, who has seemingly
alternated WR1 performances with bench-worthy efforts every week
over the second half of the season. He should see a fair amount
of CB Eli Apple, which gives him the matchup advantage over Nelson.
Nevertheless, Rodgers has been unafraid to squeeze the ball into
him in the tightest of spots several times over the course of the
season. So much of how useful Adams will be this weekend will depend
on whether he catches Rodgers' eye early on and avoids the drops
that have occasionally plagued him.
Cheaper options that could easily provide great value this weekend
include Stills, Richardson and Jones. Stills is on a four-game
touchdown streak and has tallied at least seven targets in three
of those contests. Matt Moore is a better deep-ball thrower than
most realize, so it really shouldn't be a surprise Stills' fantasy
numbers are on the rise with Moore under center. Richardson gets
a mention here because he is the Seahawks best deep threat now
with Tyler Lockett done for the season and Detroit has gotten
hammered by vertical threats all season long. Jones is a bit of
a longer shot because he typically lines up on the offensive right
side, which is where Richard Sherman tends to set up shop. Having
said that, Jones has been much more involved lately and Sherman
could occasionally shadow Golden Tate. Deep threats like Jones
have performed well against Seattle for the most part and should
continue to do so without Earl Thomas playing centerfield.
Graham will almost certainly have the highest ownership percentage
in DFS and play-your-studs challenges this weekend. While I agree
he should be the best play among the eight teams going, Luke Willson
has been the better fantasy for Seattle in two of the last four
weeks. Although Detroit has defended tight ends much better lately
than earlier this season, Kyle Rudolph is the closest thing the
Lions have seen to Graham recently. If Russell Wilson really wants
to force the issue with Graham this week, he could pay off big-time.
If not, Graham's floor has proven to be pretty low. Ebron has put
together consecutive good games for the first time in nearly two
months over the last two weeks, but the Seahawks have defended the
position well most of the year. Ebron also hasn't scored since Week
1, so he's a tough sell. Assuming he is cleared from the league's
concussion protocol in time, my favorite option this weekend will
be Green. Miami has been getting pounded by "name" tight
ends for nearly two months and Green will probably no worse than
the second or third option in the Pittsburgh passing game. If Green
doesn't go, I will probably load own more shares of Grimble than
most in DFS. (No Green would also mean Eli Rogers should see more
work as well.)
I wouldn't be terribly surprised if Cook had himself
a day given the tough matchups Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams
have, although it really feels like a gamble anytime you actually
invest in Cook. Fiedorowicz is another serviceable option, but
I don't see a ton of upside with him in a game where Houston will
probably try to take the air out of the ball as much as possible.
Sims, Grimble and Willson are all decent dart-throws for DFS owners
willing to essentially punt the position.
Key for kickers and defense/special teams
units: XP - Extra point FG - Field goal PA - Points allowed TO - Total turnovers TD - Defensive/return touchdowns
I did my projections prior to entering DraftKings' dollar amounts,
so I was a bit surprised the Texans were valued as highly as they
were. While I understand they are playing a team starting a third-string
quarterback, it isn't as if Houston lit it up in fantasy this year.
I think the Texans are a great floor play this week, but I think
I'm projecting their ceiling. Despite what my projections say, I'd
seriously consider the Steelers first in a play-your-studs or DFS
format. I value the Raiders about as much as I do the Texans, so
if you want to target that game for your D/ST needs, I would go
with Oakland, although I acknowledge that will be hard to do so
after last week's poor effort.
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.
