One of the many oddities that has puzzled me about football for
years is the relative lack of readily available statistics for this
country's most popular game. Yards before contact, yards after contact,
missed/broken tackles and a handful of other stats are among several
metrics that really should be available to the masses, unless the
goal is to minimize the amount of intelligent conversation fans
can have with each other or their favorite fantasy analyst. Or perhaps
the goal is to make sure fans can't have those conversations.
If I sound a bit cynical about this topic, it's because I am.
It would be one thing if all the information was available to
the masses and we just had to search for it in several different
places. Unfortunately, a good percentage of the metrics that allow
analysts/owners to do their job well usually come with a price
tag attached, while playing time - which is so readily available
to those who are interested in basketball, baseball and hockey
- is only available next-day to those who know where to look.
(Imagine if people had to pay an annual fee to find out how many
minutes a basketball player played in a given game.) Knowing how
many snaps a player is getting, how involved he is and how much
opportunity is receiving shouldn't require a great deal of searching
online. Unfortunately, the vast majority of fantasy football novices
probably can't tell you where to find this information, leading
to a number of disgruntled owners with no answers for their questions
about why a certain player stunk up the joint in a given week.
(Much to the dismay of the one percent of fans who send angry
tweets to players about their most recent poor performance, it's
not always their fault.)
While I won't be delivering those advanced analytics this week,
I feel like I may be providing something just as useful this week,
as we are nearing the end of the preseason portion of the regular
season. (This is a reference to the Steve Young quote I have mentioned
several times before, in case you are wondering what I'm talking
about.) While three weeks still gives us a relatively small sample
size from which to work from, patterns - if not trends - are starting
to develop. Anything that helps owners make more sound decisions
when it comes to setting lineups and trades is well worth our
time, and I believe the information I will provide over the next
two weeks (I'm planning on taking a look at targets next week)
can help in that regard. This week, I'm going to take a deeper
look into backfield workloads. Hopefully as a result of doing
this, we can dispel some myths and present some hard evidence
to some truths that may be getting brushed under the rug by others
with some agendas in this industry.
Generally speaking, there are misconceptions about what constitutes
an every-down running back. Each team tends to run slightly north
of 60 offensive plays per game (the NFL average through three
weeks this season is 62.7 with four teams tied for the most at
69 per game), which works out to about 1,000 snaps per season
- plus or minus roughly 50 on each side. David Johnson logged
964 plays in 2016 (83.8 percent of his team's snaps), 102 more
than second-place DeMarco Murray (81) - both marks are far higher
than the norm. In 2015, Devonta Freeman led the way with 766 offensive
snaps (67.3).
Despite some of the usage rates you will see below, Freeman's
league-leading percentage from two years ago is much more common.
What it means, among many other things, is that a running back
with an average of roughly 40 snaps per game is still clearly
"the man" in most cases.
The reason I wanted to begin in this fashion is to prepare each
of you for some of the numbers you are about to see. I must admit
despite the fact I am monitoring snaps, snap shares and a host
of the other numbers you see below this year more than I ever
have, some of the metrics are still eye-opening. Do you think
Kareem Hunt's start has been based on volume? Did you have any
idea Christian McCaffrey has been on the field nearly as much
is Dalvin Cook? Is it possible Derrick Henry has seen only one
more snap than Chris Ivory?
Key:
Snap % - percentage of total snaps
played Rush % - percentage of snaps played
with a rushing attempt Tar % - percentage of snaps played
with a target Touch % - percentage of snaps where
the player touched the ball (via pass attempt, run or reception) Util % - Percentage of snaps where
the player touched the ball or was targeted
Note: Running backs needed at least 10 snaps per game to
qualify. Fullbacks who met this requirement were removed.
****The bulk of this chart was created using information
provided by FantasyPros and Pro Football Reference.
Ty Montgomery's current snap rate is one
major reason owners should continue to hold onto Jamaal Williams.
I wouldn't mind shaking the hand of the person willing to bet
a month ago that Ty
Montgomery would be the easy frontrunner in total snaps through
three weeks, yet he is outpacing Le'Veon
Bell by just over 10 snaps per game (204-173). Whether or
not any running back - much less a converted one - can hold up
under that workload long-term is certainly a topic open for discussion,
but Green Bay is being very selective about how often he touches
the ball considering he is on pace to play 1,088 snaps. His current
snap rate is one major reason owners should continue to hold onto
Jamaal
Williams, even if the rookie hasn't shown much in the way
of creating yards for himself yet. It's a virtual certainty Montgomery
isn't going to maintain his pace, be it due to fatigue or injury.
The next big surprise on the list figures to be Lamar Miller,
who some already have losing work to rookie D'Onta Foreman. It's
not hard to understand why folks feel that way when the youngster
has carried the ball 58 percent, touched the ball 64 percent and
been utilized (read above for definition) 68 percent of the time
he has been on the field. In reality, Tyler Ervin has played more
and logged more touches than he has. Foreman's role will probably
grow as the weeks progress, but at the moment, this situation
is playing out just as HC Bill O'Brien said it would: he wanted
to cut down Miller's workload early in the season and not run
him into the ground like he did last September. Foreman has yet
to see more than 17 snaps in a game yet, while Miller has played
no fewer than 49.
Another running back who finds himself in a remarkably similar
position to Miller is a player he will watch from the opposing
side line Sunday. Very much contrary to popular belief, DeMarco Murray ranks 10th on the list in total snaps among running backs
with 132 (44 snaps per game, 64-percent snap share) despite sitting
out most of the second half in Week 2 and supposedly playing on
a bum hamstring in Week 3. At 26 snaps per game, Henry (38 percent)
hasn't exactly been ignored, but his superior touch (44-30) and
utilization shares (44-31) are probably the main reasons why Henry
owners are having a hard time believing this backfield isn't moving
closer to an even timeshare.
While it certainly doesn't carry over to every team, it would
appear the coaching staffs in Atlanta, Jacksonville and Kansas
City do a pretty good job of monitoring touches with their top
running backs. Devonta Freeman, Leonard Fournette and Hunt have
seen no fewer than 36 and no more than 41 snaps so far. Consistency
like that has to be a conscious effort on the part of a team's
assistants, and it also bodes well for each player's long-term
health. Although Fournette's snap rate (57) lags a bit behind
the others (Hunt at 66, Freeman at 62), the No. 4 overall pick
has them beat in touch rate and utilization rate.
Perhaps the single biggest surprise on this list is the fact
Andre Ellington (99 snaps) has seen more playing time than the
likes of Tarik Cohen (96), Ameer Abdullah (93), Mark Ingram (90)
and Theo Riddick (82). While it is important to remember what
players do and how efficient they are with their snaps is more
important than the overall number of plays - all things being
equal - it is still a hard figure to believe, especially for a
player who played very little in the first half of Week 1 and
is still technically a second-string player behind Chris Johnson.
Ellington's 33 snaps per game doesn't exactly make him a must-start
flex option like the others, however, given his lack of involvement
in the red zone and the fact Arizona isn't going to be anything
close to what it has been in recent years offensively.
For a player seeing roughly 25 snaps per game, Chris Ivory shouldn't
be on as many waiver wires as he is. While Tevin Coleman plays
in a much more explosive offense with a better quarterback, the
two "backups" are being used roughly the same across
the board, with the lone huge difference being how often they
are being targeted in the passing game when they are on the field
(Coleman - 17 percent; Ivory - 10).
Obviously, I want to go a bit deeper than just analyzing snap
counts and/or snap shares, as they only tell a small part of the
story.
The leader in the last two categories above - among those with
at least 100 snaps - is Fournette by a fairly sizeable margin.
Jacksonville drafted him with the idea/hope he would be the centerpiece
of the offense and that is exactly how it has played out thus
far. The LSU product is getting the ball 56 percent of the time
he has been on the field, while his utilization rate is at 59
percent. The first figure is four points higher than second-place
Freeman - which is admittedly a bit of a surprise given his timeshare
situation with Coleman - and the second figure is seven points
higher than second-place Todd Gurley. Given his punishing running
style, Fournette's owners would be wise to start loading up on
Ivory. The rookie is built to last, but his current workload and
willingness to embrace contact is a volatile mix, especially when
owners are hoping he can play 16 games.
Whereas the Jaguars are trying to keep Fournette fresh when they
aren't using him (his 65 touches places him sixth in the league,
while his 119 snaps rank 16th among running backs), the Rams,
Vikings, Cowboys, Bills and Steelers are trying to burn the candle
at both ends in regards to Gurley (155 snaps, league-high 76 touches),
Cook (142, 71), Ezekiel
Elliott (166, 67), McCoy (137, 66) and Le'Veon
Bell (173, 65). By comparison, Montgomery has 59 touches (10th
in the NFL) on his league-high 204 offensive plays. His 29-percent
touch and 31-percent utilization rates are eight and nine points
lower, respectively, than Bell and as much as 21 percent lower
- in both respects- to the high end of that same group.
For anyone who watched Alvin
Kamara and Tarik
Cohen play in college and understands their current NFL situations,
it's probably not surprising they lead all running backs in target
percentage. The problem, however, is their rates stand at 28 and
26 percent, respectively, which is great for owners but does not
bodes well for their continued efficiency if defenses can expect
one of every four plays they are on the field to be a throw in
their direction. With that said, it may take all of 2017 and part
of 2018 for him to see the same kind of usage Reggie
Bush and Darren
Sproles became accustomed to, but Kamara very much appears
to be the next satellite back in the Saints' offense. As for Cohen,
the Bears may not have much choice but to continue peppering him
with targets. Chicago beat Pittsburgh last week attempting 22
passes, two of which were targeted at receivers (both to Deonte
Thompson). That level of inactivity at receiver is almost
unheard of at the professional level and doesn't figure to be
a sustainable trend moving forward.
Speaking of "receiving backs," Chris Thompson is making
his owners proud. The fourth-year veteran ranks 14th in the league
in receiving yards and is averaging 17.8 yards per reception.
But wait, it gets better: Thompson is scoring a touchdown about
once every seven touches and averaging about 13 yards every time
he gets his hands of the ball. But wait, it gets even better:
per Pro Football Focus, Thompson's 216 yards after the
catch are more than any other back has in actual receiving
yards (McCaffrey ranks second at 173) and his 16.6 yards after
catch per reception are 2.2 more than the next closest back. To
say his current level of production is unsustainable would be
stating the obvious, unless of course more teams take the approach
Oakland did last Sunday night and act completely oblivious to
whenever he enters the game.
Isaiah Crowell's request to HC Hue Jackson for more carries shortly
after a Week 2 loss to Baltimore appeared to fall on deaf ears,
although it's admittedly hard for a coach to stick with a struggling
ground game when his team has yet to hold a lead three games into
the season. The relatively large amount of negative game scripts
have favored Duke Johnson as a result, and the numbers bear it
out. With that said, Johnson worked out of the slot for all 50
snaps in the Browns' season opener, so the 59- and 58-percent
snap shares are a bit misleading. For all of his playing time,
Johnson has touched the ball on only 13 percent of his snaps and
logged a total of 17 touches, so Jackson appears more comfortable
with the threat of Johnson as a decoy instead of actually manufacturing
touches for him. Another factor at play here could be the notion
that young mobile quarterbacks (DeShone Kizer, in this case),
who often bypass dumping it off to the running back in the flat
in order to try and get what they can on the ground when the first
or second option isn't immediately available.
**********
Every so often, I feel the inspiration to talk about a handful
of largely unowned players I believe are close to becoming regular
fantasy contributors. Today is one of those days. As luck would
have it, all of them are rookies I feel are on the verge of making
an impact as we near the second quarter of the NFL season:
I don't own Carlos Hyde in any league but have six shares of
Breida across my nine high-stakes and three expert leagues, so
forgive me if I am blinded by bias. Owners got a bit of a scare
in Week 3 as Hyde suffered a left hip injury in the first quarter.
Life has a way of providing us with warnings of impending doom,
and I think that is exactly what happened here. For as great as
Hyde looks so far, he has never made it through a full season
at the college or pro level. So given his injury history and 20-touch
average thus far, it seems reasonable to believe that streak will
continue. For what it's worth (and acknowledging the limited sample
size), Breida is averaging five yards per carry on his 11 regular-season
attempts after impressing most observers during the preseason.
While Raheem Mostert would likely steal a few touches if Hyde
is forced to miss time, HC Kyle Shanahan would likely plug Breida
into the same featured role he is using Hyde in right now.
Much like Hyde and Breida above, I don't any shares of Le'Veon
Bell but have three of Conner. Unlike Breida, Conner isn't
a prospect whose athleticism jumps off the tape. What Conner does
have is what every fantasy owner wants from a "stash": a clear
path to a heavy workload in a very good offense and a team with
a history of relying heavily on one back. Admittedly, this is
not a situation in which owners can view Conner as the new DeAngelo
Williams and expect low-end RB1 numbers if/when Bell is sidelined,
but not every "stash" is supposed to pay off so handsomely. Running
backs who carry the promise of heavy workloads are always going
to be in demand. If you believe as I do that Bell isn't going
to last the season, then find a way to keep Conner on your roster
as I have. In leagues with shorter benches, doing so might not
be feasible. In leagues with 16-man rosters, owners should be
able to find space.
There's a player averaging 33.5 yards per catch that people aren't
talking about? OK, more context is needed. Everett is has definitely
maximized his four targets, catching each one while producing
134 receiving yards. He's done this despite running only 26 routes
through three games. The No. 44 overall pick this spring could
have easily enjoyed his coming-out party on national TV last week
had he not been limited by a Week 2 thigh injury and forced to
go on a short week. Every time I hear Everett's name, I am reminded
of the investment the Rams made into him and the desire McVay
must have to see him evolve into a Jordan Reed-like player. With
all the weapons the Rams added prior to the season, it's unrealistic
to believe the former South Alabama star will reach such lofty
heights this year. Then again, no one is expecting Everett to
do that in the first place. Something else to keep in mind: Reed
finished with 50 catches on 65 targets for 465 yards in his first
year under then-first time OC McVay (in 11 games) after amassing
45 receptions on 59 targets for 499 yards in his rookie season
(in nine games). Those are reachable goals for Everett if he can
stay healthy and certainly good enough to get him on the redraft
radar given the current state of the position.
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.