Year in and year out, fantasy
owners are vexed when a breakout player from a season ago cannot
come close to replicating his production from the previous year.
Why does this happen so often?
Perhaps the best place to start is realizing scoring touchdowns
is an opportunity-based statistic and not a talent per se. That's
not to say talent doesn't play a huge role because it obviously
does. There are countless examples every season in which a player's
unique talent helped him score on a play that 95 percent of the
rest of the players at his position probably could not have. Talent
gets a player on the field. It helps a running back find a crease
in the line of scrimmage or break a tackle. It helps a receiver
create separation and attract more targets. Among many other factors,
scoring touchdowns is by and large a combination of talent, coaching/scheme,
some luck and opportunity - the last of those factors likely being
the most important.
In a vacuum, it would probably be fair to say the longer the
distance a player travels to score a touchdown, the more likely
talent played a role in it. Let's take one of the more obvious
cases from last year. Saquon
Barkley scored five of his 15 offensive touchdowns last season
from 20 or more yards (33.3 percent). Across the league, 334 of
1,286 offensive touchdowns last season were scored from 20 or
more yards (29.9 percent). Most would agree talent played a huge
role in that and would probably be correct.
However, if talent was the primary and only (as some seem to
believe) factor in getting into the end zone, how do we explain
Ezekiel Elliott
scoring only nine total touchdowns on 381 offensive touches? In
the 82 instances a running back compiled that many touches in
a season in league history, 46 (56.1 percent) scored at least
13 times. While it's only one example, it should be pretty clear
there's a bit more to the equation than talent.
There's more to fantasy than scoring touchdowns obviously, but
I felt the preceding paragraph would be helpful for settling into
the discussion I wanted to begin this week. In other words, what
is repeatable and what is not? Regression to the mean is a topic
that gets some discussion in the fantasy community but not near
enough.
This week's focus will be on the running backs. In the first
two sections, I will talk about which players are most likely
to see a decrease or increase in touchdown scoring this season,
based on any number of reasons. The last two sections will deal
with players who are likely to see either their abnormally high
or low efficiency marks (yards per carry, yards per reception
and yards per target for the purposes of this article) decrease
or increase. What I've done for each player is supplied their
efficiency marks going as far back as the 2015 season (if applicable)
as well as the league average for running backs who recorded at
least 100 touches (including 50 carries). I settled on those benchmarks
mainly because I concluded it is difficult for a back to be relevant
in fantasy for any length of time if he does not exceed those
totals in a given season.
I think most of the column headers below are self-explanatory,
so I'll explain only two: Touch/TD is how many offensive touches
(carries plus receptions) a player needed on average to score
a touchdown, while Yds/Tgt refers to how many receiving yards
a player averaged for every target - a number that will obviously
be slightly different than yards per reception.
Next week, we will cover receivers and tight ends.
Gurley is a candidate for touchdown regression for obvious reasons,
most notably his well-publicized knee "injury" that has his many
of his dynasty owners scrambling to trade him away and hoping for
75 or 80 cents on the dollar. Regardless of whether the panic will
end up being justified or not, the fact of the matter is the 24-year-old
is due to take a hit at some point after joining Alvin
Kamara as the only two qualified backs to average a touchdown
on fewer than 20 touches in each of the last two seasons. For starters,
the Rams will need to place both guards and their center from 2018.
Los Angeles is also publicly stating it will be a priority to reduce
his workload, which coincides nicely with the addition of third-round
draft pick Darrell
Henderson. While in theory it's possible that fewer touches
could actually end up making Gurley more efficient scoring touchdowns,
it's hard to improve much on one score every 15 touches, which is
exactly the level he reached last season.
2017 Offensive TDs: 21
2018 Prediction: 14
James White enjoyed his best fantasy season
as a pro in 2018 including 12 TDs on just 181 touches.
To put White's TD efficiency last year in some perspective, Kamara
has yet to average a score every 15.1 touches like the 27-year-old
scatback. Prior to 2018, White never handled more than 99 offensive
touches or scored more than six touchdowns in a season. Last year,
he rewarded the Patriots with 181 touches and 12 total TDs. His
seven receiving scores on a career-high 87 catches were one less
than he had on 116 receptions over the previous two seasons combined.
His five rushing TDs on 94 carries were three more than he had on
his first 113 career rushing attempts. The reasons for his success
a season ago are many, but Tom
Brady's growing trust in him and Rob
Gronkowski's decreased role in the offense were two of the more
critical ones. The absence of dependable outside receivers certainly
contributed to the cause as well. Having Julian
Edelman at the start of the season figures to cut into the number
of easy opportunities in between the 20s for White, while the addition
of first-round rookie N'Keal Harry could take away some of his scoring
chances inside the 10. A full season from Rex
Burkhead could also chip away at his potential scoring touches
a bit. New England's desire to become more of a power running team
could also rob him of some more touchdowns. It would not come as
a shock if two or more of these possibilities come to fruition,
making White much more of an RB2 in PPR than the overall RB6 he
was in 2018.
It's easy to forget Henry amassed 40.5 percent of his 215 carries,
55.2 percent of his 1,059 rushing yards and 58.3 percent of his
12 rushing touchdowns over his final four games of the season.
Through 13 weeks of the season, he was the overall RB39 in most
PPR leagues. Over the final four weeks, he was the overall RB1.
It's anyone's guess whether Henry turned a corner in his career
or not during that final stretch, but the point to be made here
is that he took serious advantage of a Jacksonville defense that
looked like it had given up in Week 14, a relatively weak Giants'
run defense in Week 15 and a seriously banged-up Washington defense
in Week 16. Perhaps the upgrades the Titans made to their passing
game in the offseason (A.J.
Brown and Adam
Humphries), the return of Delanie
Walker and the addition of OG Roger Saffold will be just what
Henry needed to take his game to the next level and keep it there
for a sustained period of time. Either way, it's going to be very
difficult for him to average one touchdown per 19.2 touches again
if he isn't more involved in the passing game. Given how multiple
offensive coordinators have elected not to use him in that fashion,
it's fair to assume new OC Arthur Smith will not either.
2017 Offensive TDs: 12
2018 Prediction: 9
Others worthy of mention (using a healthy blend of last
season's efficiency numbers and common sense):
Melvin Gordon,
LA Chargers (2018 TD/touch: 16.1; previous career best TD/touch:
24.6)
Aaron Jones,
Green Bay (2018 TD/touch: 17.7; previous career best TD/touch:
22.5)
Tarik Cohen,
Chicago (2018 TD/touch: 21.3; previous career best TD/touch: 46.7)
Likely candidates for positive touchdown
regression
The Cardinals are going to have some serious questions to answer
after this year if Johnson, whose worst TD/touch mark in his first
two full seasons is 18.7, doesn't see a huge jump from 30.8 in
2018. The level of ineptitude with Arizona's play-calling last
season was startling, as former OC Mike McCoy ran Johnson inside
the tackles as if he was the second coming of Christian Okoye
and didn't feature him nearly enough in the passing game. New
HC Kliff Kingsbury may not possess any play-calling experience
at the pro level, but suffice to say his offenses at Texas Tech
focused much more on outside running and made respectable use
of the running back as a receiver. Kingsbury's spread offense
concepts and likely frequent use of four-wide sets should give
Johnson better running lanes than he ever saw last season, while
the number of "gun-runs" should get him on the perimeter of the
defense on a regular basis and take advantage of the fact he is
one of the more explosive backs in the league.
Depending on a person's perspective, Cook has either been snake-bitten
or proven why durability was a major concern of his coming out
in the draft in 2017. Multiple hamstring issues limited him to
11 games in 2018 after an ACL tear ended his rookie season after
four contests. What has been clear is that Cook is a dynamic talent
capable of going the distance on just about any play, and he is
expected to get the benefit of running in a zone-running scheme
that will be the brainchild of OC Kevin Stefanski and new assistant
head coach/offensive advisor Gary Kubiak this season. While rookie
Alexander
Mattison hasn't received near enough credit for being a well-rounded
back, he probably doesn't give Minnesota the same temptation of
replacing Cook at the goal line that Latavius
Murray did. However, Cook finds himself as a positive touchdown
regression candidate because it seems unlikely he will go through
yet another season where he struggles to stay on the field.
Revisionist historians will look back at last season and probably
say Freeman can't be expected to play a large role in 2019 because
Philip Lindsay was just that good as a rookie. People looking
for more of an answer should pay attention to two key sets of
numbers provided by Next Gen Stats. Lindsay ranked third (3.39)
among qualified backs in terms of efficiency (which NGS defines
as a number that is calculated by taking the total distance a
player traveled on rushing plays as a ball carrier (measured in
yards) per rushing yards gained. NGS uses this stat to determine
how north/south a runner is, with the lower number being more
north/south. Freeman ranked 42nd (4.27). One has to wonder if
the 190-pound Lindsay can continue to absorb the punishment that
goes along with running in between the tackles. The second NGS
stat is even more telling: Freeman faced eight men in the box
on 36.2 percent of his carries as a rookie, second only to LeGarrette
Blount. Lindsay was 42nd at 14.1. What this suggests is opponents
had a pretty good idea OC Bill Musgrave wasn't going to use Freeman
as a receiver whenever he was on the field or ask him to do much
with the ball if he ended up being the target (a 3.6 yards-per-target
mark for a season is hideous). To that end, Pro Football Focus
charted him with 118 routes on 308 snaps (38.3 percent). Lindsay
ran 266 routes on 453 snaps (58.7).
All this comes into focus with new OC Rich Scangarello taking
over for Musgrave. Scangarello has a deep appreciation for Kyle
Shanahan long before working for him over the previous two seasons.
It is expected he'll rely on the same outside zone-run scheme
that has served Shanahan well for the majority of his career,
which certainly would appear to favor Freeman based on the aforementioned
efficiency statistics. It is also worth noting Lindsay has not
been able to participate in offseason workouts due to wrist surgery,
perhaps allowing Freeman a chance to make a solid first impression
on the new coaching staff. Let's also not forget about the addition
of Mike Munchak after he established himself as one of the top
offensive line coaches in the league with the Steelers over the
past five seasons. Factor in an improved offensive line with a
more creative offensive scheme, a quarterback who can threaten
defenses downfield and a team likely to play with more positive
game script this season and there's every reason to believe Freeman
will score more than once every 28.8 touches.
Of the 55 running backs that qualify for this study, Johnson
finished second with a 5.4 YPC. To put that achievement in some
context, Johnson joined Barry Sanders (1994, 1997) as the only
Lion to reach that lofty mark since Nick Pietrosante did it in
1960. It's not that Johnson isn't capable of repeating the feat
or Detroit doesn't have enough talent up front, but rather it's
just a high bar to reach in consecutive seasons even in near-perfect
conditions. Perhaps it helps to consider the Auburn product averaged
3.6 YPC in three of his final four contests before suffering a
knee sprain in Week 11 that effectively ended his season. Making
things even more difficult for Johnson is a schedule that includes
the Bears and Vikings twice each, the Chargers, Eagles, Cowboys,
Redskins and Broncos - all of which should have above-average
run defenses if they can stay relatively healthy in 2019.
Miller exploded for a 97-yard touchdown run in Week 13 against
the Titans. On his other 209 regular-season carries, he averaged
4.2 yards - a number certainly more in line with the marks he
posted over his first two years in Houston. The Texans brought
in a tight end known for his ability to block in Darren
Fells and added some help on the offensive line via the draft
in Tytus Howard and Max Scharping, but the odds are long that
Miller is going to get much help from the rookies right away.
D'Onta Foreman's eventual return to full health also looms as
a substantial threat to his ability to see enough playing time
in order to pop off another big run that allows him to average
4.6 YPC again. If there is a small saving grace for either Kerryon
Johnson or Miller, it is both players were well below the
league average in terms of YPR last season. In Miller's case,
he posted 9.1 YPR in 2017 and is at 7.5 for his career - both
of which are significantly higher than last year's 6.5 mark.
Ekeler is not the type of player to bet against when it comes
to efficiency regression, as specialty backs tend to have their
strengths accentuated in their role to begin with. Still, the
list of running backs since 2000 to average at least five yards
per carry and 10 yards per reception (with a minimum of 40 carries
and 25 catches) is a pretty small list. Ekeler is the only player
to do it in consecutive seasons over that timeframe, and Jamaal
Charles is the only other player who has done it twice. Thus,
it is a reasonable assumption Ekeler won't be able to turn the
trick in each of his first three seasons. However, there is another
potential reason. Justin
Jackson was impressive enough in a small sample size as a
rookie last season to earn more work going forward. Will he see
enough time to make a sizable dent in Ekeler's playing time? It
doesn't seem all that likely, but Jackson did appear to be the
better back at times when both players saw significant snaps while
Gordon was hurt.
It says a great deal about the talent and expectations of a back
when 4.6 YPC and 8.8 YPR can be considered a down year. There
was no question he was going to fall short of matching his rookie-year
6.1 and 10.2 marks in those respective categories, especially
after we learned Mark
Ingram would serve a four-game suspension to begin last season
and drive up Kamara's touch totals. The arrival of Latavius
Murray figures to have minimal effect on Kamara's usage in
that he is a poor man's Ingram at best and could get beaten out
by undrafted rookie free-agent Devine
Ozigbo at some point. A big reason why Kamara finds himself
in the positive efficiency regression portion of this piece is
the Saints signed Jared
Cook in free agency, further opening up things underneath
for Kamara as a runner or anytime he wants to run an option route
on an overmatched linebacker. At this point of the summer, about
the only potential roadblock that exists for Kamara to fall short
of his rushing efficiency standards is the loss of C Max Unger,
although second-round rookie Erik McCoy should be able to fill
his sizable shoes (especially considering how beat up Unger said
he was in 2018).
If owners were granted three wishes before the start of this
season, a fairly high percentage of them would ask for one of
those wishes to be able to get some clarity on how Drake will
be used by the new regime, led by former Patriots in HC Brian
Flores and OC Chad O'Shea. It goes without saying one of the more
frustrating parts of last season for a number of owners was the
inconsistent - and often inconceivable - usage of Drake, who still
finished as the overall RB14 in PPR leagues despite averaging
10.8 touches. He'll be hard-pressed to improve on his 9.0 YPR,
but his 4.5 YPC was a career low and something that shouldn't
be hard to improve upon even though 2019 is expected to be a rebuilding
year for the Dolphins. While Kalen
Ballage remains on the roster and had his moments as a rookie,
Miami removed Drake's biggest obstacle for a much bigger workload
when it let Frank
Gore go to Buffalo. Besides Ballage, the Dolphins figure to
enter the season with either seventh-round pick Myles
Gaskin or Mark
Walton as the No. 3 back. In other words, Drake should be
granted his first real opportunity to go over 200 touches in an
offense. And for those folks who might say Miami's line won't
be good enough to allow Drake to thrive as a potential bell-cow,
the blocking was arguably worse in 2017 - per Pro Football Focus
- when he guided a number of fantasy teams to a title with a strong
final five weeks.
Everyone's favorite should-be-but-isn't fantasy stud running
back is back in this section for a second straight season. The
addition of OG Andrew Norwell last spring was supposed to be the
final piece to building an offensive line that would allow Fournette
to push 300 carries and complement the Jaguars' ferocious defense.
Slowly but surely, the entire left side of the offensive line
failed to make it past Week 11, Fournette couldn't complete a
full game until mid-November and the defense didn't come close
to matching the standard it set the previous year. At this point,
his lack of durability has made him something of a laughingstock
in fantasy circles. Nevertheless, a focused Fournette is so much
better than his career 3.7 YPC would indicate, and the Jaguars
have made two considerable upgrades this spring that figure to
help the former No. 4 overall pick prove that, signing Nick
Foles in free agency and drafting a very good run blocker
in RT Jawaan Taylor to start sooner than later at right tackle.
At the very least, Fournette should not have much of a problem
improving on last year's 3.3 YPC, which is an abysmal number for
a player with his ability to run through and/or break tackles.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today
since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy Football
Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s hour-long,
pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday in 2012-13
and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio
shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.
