Auction drafting is my favorite way to build a fantasy football
team. While the general idea of this format is to allow every
owner an equal opportunity to acquire players, it combines the
ability to value a player’s potential contribution with
managing a budget, all while testing a drafter’s patience.
Perhaps most importantly, I feel it tests the conviction a fantasy
owner has in certain players more than a snake draft ever will.
Furthermore, it rewards the prepared and punishes the unprepared.
In snake drafts, it is obvious to anyone using a reliable and
well-organized draft board when a player is slipping. In auctions,
owners need to be keenly aware of what players are left and balance
that against their remaining funds. Owners must decide what players
they like the most and to what degree they are willing to go to
secure their services, which is perhaps the best part of auctions
- along with the aforementioned fact that every owner has an equal
opportunity to land each player.
This coming season will mark the 13th year I have participated
in The
Huddle Expert Auction League. Over the first 12 seasons, FFToday
made the six-team playoff 11 times and advanced to the championship
game on seven occasions, winning it all three times. Suffice it
to say my approach has proven to be effective.
This year’s draft was held on August 19, so keep that date
in mind as you review the prices below (both the price each player
went for and the value at which I set for him), especially as
it relates to James Robinson, Travis Etienne, Sony Michel and
Darrell Henderson. This draft took place about four days before Etienne got hurt and about a week before the Rams traded for Michel.
General Auction Considerations/Strategies
I decided this year that it would be wise to share some insight
into what I believe has contributed to my success in auction formats.
There are obviously more than seven auction "rules"
to observe, but this should be a helpful list for most managers.
1. Use auction values customized to your league's settings.
This may seem like a "duh" statement, but you would
be surprised how many fantasy owners don't do this. One size does
not fit all. For the veteran fantasy owner who wants to create
their own (which I recommend), this objective can be achieved
by studying the values of players in your league over the last
year or two - especially for those at the top of each position.
When you can be confident in the price ceiling for Patrick Mahomes,
Christian McCaffrey, Davante Adams and Travis Kelce, it makes
valuing every other player below them much easier. I set my prices
for players at what I believe should be their ceiling, so I don't
go over my valuation on a player unless there is a specific objective
on trying to accomplish at that particular moment.
2. Find a way to easily identify "your guys."
Time is of the essence in most auctions, so fantasy managers
should have a quick and easy way to identify a player they are
targeting as they scroll up and down their lists. (I bolded and
underlined the players' names in hours and days leading up to
this draft.) One of the best features of an auction is that every
fantasy manager has the same opportunity to land each player -
at least at the beginning of the draft. If you want a certain
player enough, odds are you will probably get him.
3. Identify the players you want as the core of your team.
This is slightly different from the preceding paragraph in that
we are talking about a group of two or three foundation pieces
as opposed to a group of 30-40 players you would like to have
on the team.
4. Setting positional budgets is overrated.
While I can see how it might be helpful for the new auction player,
I have never set a pre-draft budget for any auction. Much like
snake drafting, fantasy owners should do whatever they can to
avoid backing themselves into a corner or creating more obstacles
for themselves. Some snake drafts dictate that we focus on building
around receivers, others around running backs and still others
give us a healthy mix. A similar thing can happen in auctions.
What if your budget at running back is 40 percent and half of
the other owners' budgets are 45-50 percent? Chances are your
running back-centric focus will need to become receiver-focused,
making it one more thing you need to adjust to on the fly. It
makes much more sense to figure out before the draft how you want
to build around an Adams or a Kelce or who you deem is an acceptable
low-end RB1 if the initial RB-centric plan does not work.
5. Nominate with a purpose.
Nominating early in an auction draft should be about either getting
your foundation pieces or setting the expectation for a tier.
In other words, if I nominate DK Metcalf and believe he is an
elite WR1, it should be because I want him or want to know if
I can trust my valuations for the rest of that tier. After the
first few rounds, I tend to nominate "buzzy" players
with an eye on trying to get my fellow owners to empty their pockets
a bit earlier than they would like.
6. Monitor the roster needs and (especially) the budgets
of the other managers. Use "the hammer" when you have
it.
The first sentence should be self-explanatory. It really comes
into play in the middle part of your draft and definitely toward
the end of it. The second sentence is one of the best parts of
an auction: a player you desire is available and you have the
most money (and/or the highest max bid) remaining. For example,
Tee Higgins has somehow escaped nomination through 150 picks and
no one else in the room can bid more than $10. As long as you
trust yourself not to pursue any other "eye candy,"
feel free to watch other owners continue to pass him by - making
him an even better value. If that doesn't sound like fun (it should),
then that is the moment you want to drop "the hammer"
on the rest of the room.
7. For the love of all that is good, do not leave money on
the table in an auction!
There is a reason this piece of advice is mentioned in virtually
every auction draft piece. There is absolutely no reason not to
spend every dollar you have in an auction. One of the most egregious
examples I have witnessed was in a high-stakes auction last year
where an owner left $17 on the table. Using this draft as an example,
$17 would buy any of the following: all but two of the quarterbacks,
Damien Harris, Amari Cooper/Adam Thielen or all but three of the
tight ends. You probably cannot afford to bypass that kind of
talent.
Pre-draft
The dream scenario entering this particular auction was securing
McCaffrey and Kelce. Short of that, I wanted Kelce and Calvin Ridley to complement two clear starters at running back. I was
determined not to overspend at quarterback (I was focused on Ryan Tannehill as someone I expected to get around $5). Doing all this
should allow me to build a rock-solid receiving corps, especially
considering how deep the position is.
The Draft
Bolded players are ones I would encourage
auction drafters to target in their auction drafts, as I did in
mine. The key is picking players to target from several different
tiers and expected cost valuations.
Below you will find the actual prices that secured a player’s
services (Act $) and the price I valued them at before the draft
(My $). A dash in the first column means a player was not nominated.
The green highlight represents winning bids for FF Today.
Finally, I will follow each position group with some of my thoughts.
All values are based on a $200 cap and players are organized
by “My $”. All of the players that were nominated
are included. I removed several players that are unlikely to go
in auctions in 12-team leagues with 18-man rosters or for other
common-sense reasons.
Required starters: 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 Flex, 1 K and 1
Defense/Special Teams unit.
Quarterbacks
Actual $
My $
Player
Tm
Age
20
21
Patrick Mahomes
KC
25
19
20
Josh Allen
BUF
25
15
20
Kyler Murray
ARI
24
13
18
Lamar Jackson
BAL
24
12
15
Dak Prescott
DAL
28
8
14
Aaron Rodgers
GB
37
5
12
Ryan Tannehill
TEN
33
7
12
Russell Wilson
SEA
32
5
11
Tom Brady
TB
44
4
8
Jalen Hurts
PHI
23
4
10
Justin Herbert
LAC
23
4
10
Matthew Stafford
LAR
33
1
7
Joe Burrow
CIN
24
1
6
Trevor Lawrence
JAC
21
2
5
Trey Lance
SF
21
3
5
Justin Fields
CHI
22
-
2
Carson Wentz
IND
28
2
2
Matt Ryan
ATL
36
-
2
Sam Darnold
CAR
24
1
1
Tua Tagovailoa
MIA
23
2
1
Kirk Cousins
MIN
33
-
1
Daniel Jones
NYG
24
1
1
Baker Mayfield
CLE
26
-
1
Ryan Fitzpatrick
WAS
38
1
1
Derek Carr
LV
30
-
1
Zach Wilson
NYJ
22
-
1
Ben Roethlisberger
PIT
39
-
1
Taysom Hill
NO
31
-
1
Jameis Winston
NO
27
1
1
Deshaun Watson
HOU
25
Observations: I found it interesting that Mahomes
($20) was the only quarterback to be nominated through the first
three rounds. Then, five of the next six nominees for quarterbacks:
Allen ($19), Jackson ($13), Prescott ($12), Murray ($15) and Brady
($5). It is clear the allure of the dual-threat has captured the
imagination of this league, as it is difficult to explain how Allen
and Mahomes attracted bids nearly four times as high as the price
Brady went for and more than twice as much as Rodgers ($8).
Strategy:
Generally speaking - and especially in leagues that award four
points per passing touchdown - I want my starting quarterback
to be a capable run threat. This means I want a floor of at least
200-300 rushing yards and a few scores on the ground, especially
in a league such as this one in which passing TDs are worth four
points. There are 14 quarterbacks I am comfortable starting right
now and perhaps four more (Lance, Fields, Tagovailoa and Ryan)
who could easily join them. In short, it's a deep position. Auction
league owners would do well to remember that; there's not much
of a reason to spend more than $10 at the position, if only because
it will almost certainly wind up costing you a potential starter
at another position later in the draft.
For example, would you rather have Murray and a $1 player or
Brady and Tyler Boyd ($11)? Jackson and a $1 player or Herbert
and James Robinson ($12). Pounce on Allen or Mahomes if they go
incredibly cheap. Otherwise, play the matchup game. I did not
intend to grab a third quarterback (Burrow) until I saw he was
still available nearly 200 nominations into the draft. He possesses
significantly more upside than anyone else that was left. I would
rather be in a position where I have to figure out how to manage
Brady-Herbert-Burrow than the alternative. (More on this later.)
Total spent at QB: $10
Running Backs
Actual $
My $
Player
Tm
Age
60
58
Christian McCaffrey
CAR
25
49
50
Ezekiel Elliott
DAL
26
43
48
Derrick Henry
TEN
27
50
48
Nick Chubb
CLE
25
48
48
Aaron Jones
GB
26
42
48
Austin Ekeler
LAC
26
50
48
Dalvin Cook
MIN
26
54
48
Alvin Kamara
NO
26
41
44
Jonathan Taylor
IND
22
40
43
Saquon Barkley
NYG
24
39
44
Najee Harris
PIT
23
48
44
Antonio Gibson
WAS
23
45
42
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
KC
22
34
40
Joe Mixon
CIN
25
34
34
Chris Carson
SEA
26
31
33
David Montgomery
CHI
24
32
32
J.K. Dobbins
BAL
22
22
28
D'Andre Swift
DET
22
16
24
Travis Etienne
JAC
22
14
23
Myles Gaskin
MIA
24
23
21
Josh Jacobs
LV
23
21
21
Darrell Henderson *
LAR
24
11
20
Chase Edmonds
ARI
25
18
19
Miles Sanders
PHI
24
30
18
Mike Davis
ATL
28
18
18
Kareem Hunt
CLE
26
11
17
Michael Carter
NYJ
22
12
17
James Robinson **
JAC
23
24
16
Javonte Williams
DEN
21
16
14
Trey Sermon
SF
22
17
14
Damien Harris
NE
24
15
12
Raheem Mostert
SF
29
5
8
Giovani Bernard
TB
29
8
10
Kenyan Drake
LV
27
10
10
Melvin Gordon
DEN
28
7
9
James Conner
ARI
26
6
9
Gus Edwards
BAL
26
7
9
Zack Moss
BUF
23
12
9
Ronald Jones
TB
24
9
8
Jamaal Williams
DET
26
2
8
James White
NE
29
5
8
Devin Singletary
BUF
23
3
7
Nyheim Hines
IND
24
4
7
AJ Dillon
GB
23
4
6
JD McKissic
WAS
28
1
4
Latavius Murray
NO
31
3
4
David Johnson
HOU
29
1
3
Tarik Cohen
CHI
26
1
3
Tony Pollard
DAL
24
2
2
Javian Hawkins
FA
21
-
2
Darrynton Evans
TEN
23
1
2
Boston Scott
PHI
26
2
3
Leonard Fournette
TB
26
1
2
Xavier Jones
LAR
23
6
2
Phillip Lindsay
HOU
27
-
2
Qadree Ollison
ATL
24
1
2
Devontae Booker
NYG
29
-
1
Sony Michel ***
LAR
26
1
1
Alexander Mattison
MIN
23
4
1
Chuba Hubbard
CAR
22
-
1
Larry Rountree III
LAC
22
1
1
Darrel Williams
KC
26
5
1
Rashaad Penny
SEA
25
1
1
Marlon Mack
IND
25
1
1
Tevin Coleman
NYJ
28
1
1
Salvon Ahmed
MIA
22
-
1
Joshua Kelley
LAC
23
2
1
Rhamondre Stevenson ****
NE
23
-
1
Jake Funk
LAR
23
1
1
Malcolm Brown
MIA
28
* - Would bid about $15 for Henderson now.
** - Would bid about $32 for Robinson now.
*** - Would bid about $10 for Robinson now.
**** - Would bid about $5 for Stevenson now.
Observations: There was a time in this league where no running
back drew a $50 bid. There was not much bargain shopping in 2021,
however. Three backs drew bids of at least $50 and seven of at least
$48, including a few (Chubb, Jones and Gibson) I believed could
fall into my preferred low-to-mid 40s price range. (For the sake
of comparison, only nine running backs topped $40 bids in the Blanda
Division of the King's Classic - a league that features 14 teams
and three flex spots but starts 10 players like this league - five
days earlier.) Even Edwards-Helaire ($45), who can typically be
had in the late second round of snake drafts, attracted a bid usually
only afforded to first-round picks. There was also an inexplicable
$30 nomination for Davis - something I can only imagine was born
out of frustration from missing out on previous targets - after
only about 25 nominations had been made.
One of the best parts of auction drafting is looking back and
seeing how a player usually available in the fifth or sixth round
like Javonte Williams ($24) went for more than someone like Swift
($22), who is usually off the board in the middle of the third.
There is a lesson to be learned here, however. Bidding wars are
almost inevitable in auctions because desperation sets in once
managers realize they could miss out on the last player in a tier.
That's not to say that Williams won't prove to be worth his cost,
but he is much more likely to go around the price I have set for
him in most auctions ($16) and what he went for the King's Classic
($17) than the number he went for in this auction.
For the second straight year in this league, one owner double-dipped
in the elite running back pool and came away with McCaffrey ($60)
and Barkley ($40). (To make matters worse, he also double-dipped
in the elite wide receiver pool by snagging Davante Adams and
Tyreek Hill for $43 apiece.) Anyone capable of doing some quick
math knows that means he spent $186 (of his $200) on four players,
leaving him with 14 players for $1 apiece to round out his roster.
The upside of such an approach is obvious. The downside is as
well. (Last year, the same owner went McCaffrey-Barkley-CEH. It
did not end well for him, especially after I outbid everyone for
Mike Davis on waivers.)
Strategy: As much as we all love to have at
least one good one, running backs were overvalued in this draft.
A few years ago, I was a strong proponent of doing whatever it
took to get my top-ranked running back. At the time, it was cost-efficient
to do so. The sub-$50 cost also allowed me to build a balanced
lineup. As the league has adjusted their stance on spending at
least 25 percent of their cap for one player, I have also had
to adjust my stance on selling out for the likes of McCaffrey.
Positional advantages come in different shapes and sizes, so while
McCaffrey is the most obvious - and arguably the most fun - one
to have, he is priced to the point where he almost has to produce
2,000 total yards and 15 touchdowns to be worth his cost. Can
he do it? Obviously. Is it worth it? That is debatable. McCaffrey
is certainly worth $50 and then some, but he's the only one. Elliott
and Chubb (and maybe even Gibson) could have huge seasons, but
the opportunity cost is just too great in a league where most
of the owners know what they are doing. When one player eats up
between 25-30 percent of your cap, your fortunes pretty much ride
on him staying healthy even though he plays the fantasy position
most likely to get hurt.
Thankfully, Ekeler ($42) and his workload concerns have kept
his price intact. I'm not exactly of the belief he is the West
Coast version of Kamara now that longtime Saints assistant Joe
Lombardi is calling the shots on offense for the Chargers, but
Ekeler has legitimate 100-catch upside. I spent more than I wanted
to on Carson ($34), but it was an eventuality I prepared for 30-45
minutes earlier when I nominated Montgomery ($31) and saw Dobbins
($32) come up for bid right before Carson. The ability to keep
your eye on the prize and maintain your discipline - sitting on
your money for a while if necessary - is critical in an auction.
At first blush, it may seem ludicrous I would be willing to trust
Bernard ($5) as my RB3. To each their own. The mere fact Tom Brady
requested (and trusts) him suggests he has the same kind of upside
James White did when they were both playing for the Patriots.
The difference between White then and Bernard now is that the
Bucs boast a significantly better offense now than New England
did in Brady's final years in Foxboro. White ($2) is a player
I have consistently passed on this summer for the simple fact
that I do not have a good idea when I would be able to play him.
He made sense here, however, because he was cheap and I can afford
to be patient with him until Mac Jones wins the starting job.
Xavier Jones ($1) was well worth the investment before the Michel
trade. He will likely be my first cut now, perhaps for Tony Jones or Michel.
Total spent at RB: $84
Wide Receivers
Actual $
My $
Player
Tm
Age
43
45
Davante Adams
GB
28
43
44
Tyreek Hill
KC
27
40
42
Calvin Ridley
ATL
26
37
40
DeAndre Hopkins
ARI
29
38
38
Stefon Diggs
BUF
27
34
34
D.K. Metcalf
SEA
23
37
33
A.J. Brown
TEN
24
27
33
Allen Robinson
CHI
27
35
32
Justin Jefferson
MIN
22
35
30
Terry McLaurin
WAS
25
31
30
Keenan Allen
LAC
29
32
28
CeeDee Lamb
DAL
22
20
29
Robert Woods
LAR
29
24
28
Mike Evans
TB
28
17
27
Amari Cooper
DAL
27
27
27
Cooper Kupp
LAR
28
21
24
Julio Jones
TEN
32
20
24
Chris Godwin
TB
25
24
24
Tyler Lockett
SEA
28
14
23
Tee Higgins
CIN
22
17
23
Adam Thielen
MIN
31
18
22
Ja'Marr Chase
CIN
33
19
22
D.J. Moore
CAR
24
24
22
Diontae Johnson
PIT
25
7
22
Chase Claypool
PIT
23
9
21
Courtland Sutton
DEN
25
15
21
Brandon Aiyuk
SF
23
11
20
Tyler Boyd
CIN
26
16
19
Jerry Jeudy
DEN
22
7
19
JuJu Smith-Schuster
PIT
24
7
18
Robby Anderson
CAR
28
15
17
Odell Beckham Jr.
CLE
28
4
17
D.J. Chark
JAC
24
9
15
Antonio Brown
TB
33
5
14
Michael Gallup
DAL
25
3
14
Darnell Mooney
CHI
23
5
14
Mike Williams
LAC
26
13
13
Kenny Golladay
NYG
27
10
12
Deebo Samuel
SF
25
8
12
Michael Thomas
NO
28
4
12
Marvin Jones
JAC
31
10
11
Jarvis Landry
CLE
28
7
11
Curtis Samuel
WAS
25
4
10
Elijah Moore
NYJ
26
6
10
Laviska Shenault
JAC
22
4
8
DeVonta Smith
PHI
22
4
4
Corey Davis
NYJ
28
6
8
Will Fuller
MIA
27
2
7
Terrace Marshall Jr.
CAR
21
1
7
Cole Beasley
BUF
32
10
7
Jaylen Waddle
MIA
22
2
7
Bryan Edwards
LV
22
11
7
Brandin Cooks
HOU
27
1
6
Michael Pittman
IND
23
1
6
Rondale Moore
ARI
21
7
5
Russell Gage
ATL
25
1
5
Parris Campbell
IND
24
-
4
Rashod Bateman
BAL
21
4
4
DeVante Parker
MIA
28
1
3
T.Y. Hilton
IND
31
3
3
Marquez Callaway
NO
23
1
3
Nelson Agholor
NE
28
8
2
Jakobi Meyers
NE
24
1
2
Randall Cobb
GB
31
2
2
A.J. Green
ARI
33
4
2
Henry Ruggs III
LV
22
3
2
Marquise Brown
BAL
24
1
2
Sterling Shepard
NYG
28
2
2
Gabriel Davis
BUF
22
1
2
Mecole Hardman
KC
23
7
1
Jalen Reagor
PHI
22
-
1
Kadarius Toney
NYG
22
1
1
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
GB
26
-
1
Van Jefferson
LAR
25
-
1
D'Wayne Eskridge
SEA
24
2
1
Breshad Perriman
DET
27
1
1
Jamison Crowder
NYJ
28
1
1
Christian Kirk
ARI
24
-
1
Darius Slayton
NYG
24
3
1
Emmanuel Sanders
BUF
34
2
1
Tre'Quan Smith
NO
25
3
1
Amon-Ra St. Brown
DET
21
3
1
Tyrell Williams
DET
29
1
1
Keelan Cole
NYJ
28
1
1
James Washington
PIT
25
3
1
Dyami Brown
WAS
21
Observations: The going rate for the elite receivers - and
most leagues using this setup - is in the low-to-mid 40s. It has
been that way in this league for as long as I can remember. Unless
it is somewhat obvious a receiver has a clear path to the kind of
160-plus targets (Adams last year, for example), it is probably
best for most fantasy managers to focus on getting one of the $30-plus
receivers as a WR1 and build a draft plan around that. Unsurprisingly,
11 wideouts went for at least $30. However, as you can tell, it
does not always take $30 to land a top receiver. Robinson ($27)
and Woods ($20) were especially good bargains that typically go
closer to my valuations in most auctions. Higgins ($14) somehow
did not come up for nomination for more than 2 1/2 hours and his
bargain bin price reflects that.
The overspending at running back trickled down to receiver. While
it is inevitable that some wideouts who should command double-digit
bids will go for less than $10, it is not overly difficult to
identify 10 receivers above who probably should have drawn bids
of at least that much in this draft. Every dollar in an auction
matters. When a $12 player goes for $7, that fantasy manager has
increased his/her margin for error at the very least. In the best-case
scenario, he/she should be able to apply that savings to a player
that would have otherwise been outside of his/her price range.
We may have reached the point where there are more receivers
that are worthy of being on fantasy rosters in 12-team leagues
than there are spots to put them. A whopping 82 receivers came
up for nomination in this draft and I could argue that at least
four or five more deserved the honor. Rashod Bateman is the most
obvious of the bunch and should get scooped up when the first
waiver wire period hits, if for no other reason than he can be
stashed on IR. (I will put in a bid on him with exactly that in
mind.) Like most of his teammates this year, Nico Collins will
have a low floor because of the dreadful offense to which he is
attached, but his size/speed combination makes him an intriguing
upside flyer. Josh Palmer is a Mike Williams injury away from
being a very serviceable WR4 with WR3 upside. Dee Eskridge and
Van Jefferson are in offenses that should be able to support three
receivers more often than not.
Strategy: I hate to ruin the surprise of whom
I landed at tight end, but my winning bid on Kelce had a profound
effect on what I wanted to do at receiver. A Kelce-Ridley pairing
would have been a dream scenario that would have probably cost
me the ability to get Carson, so that was a no-go. There are at
least 40 receivers worth starting in my estimation, so getting
at least three I liked was not a huge concern. The beauty of landing
Kelce is that he produces like an elite WR1 at another position,
which in turn bumps what I need each of my receivers to do down
a notch and gives my third wideout a low bar to reach in weekly
matchups (your opponent's tight end, more often than not).
The beauty of this draft was that I didn't need to compromise
at receiver. Getting three of my top 26 options at the position
- and getting them all well under my valuation - was a coup. Allen Robinson ($27) continues to be undervalued despite the likelihood
he will have the most competent quarterbacking of his career (be
it Andy Dalton or Justin Fields). He is at worst a low-end WR1
with double-digit touchdown upside. For all the talk about CeeDee Lamb ($32) taking over as the alpha in Dallas, the target difference
between Cooper ($17) and Lamb in Dak Prescott's four healthy games
last year was shocking (51-29 in Cooper's favor). Of course, no
one should expect a repeat of that, but it does lend itself to
the likelihood that Cooper and Lamb will be equal partners as
opposed to the former serving as the latter's complement. There
is no way to justify a $15 gap between the two. Chase ($18) is
one of the best receiver prospects to enter the league in the
last few years. It seems as though his stock was suffering from
the reports that he couldn't separate early in camp and a case
of the drops. (Well, yeah. He didn't play football last year.
Can we give the kid a few practices/days/weeks to re-acclimate
himself to playing football again and doing so at the highest
level?)
It pained me to see Claypool go for $7 right after I thought
I got a steal in Mike Williams for $5, but let's not kid ourselves:
both are legitimate candidates for 1,000 yards and/or 10 touchdowns.
Bryan Edwards ($2) has been a bit of the right side of the hype
machine this summer. My expectations for him are in the WR4 neighborhood,
but there seems to be no question he will fall right behind Darren Waller in terms of the pecking order in the Las Vegas passing
game. His tape at South Carolina was good enough to believe he
will live up to the hype in 2021 after a bit of an unlucky and
injury-filled rookie season. I will continue to give the benefit
of doubt to Green ($2). While no one is expecting Prime A.J. in
Arizona at age 33, there is at least a small possibility his last
two years with the Bengals were more a result of being ready to
move on from Cincinnati disguised as an aging receiver beginning
to break down. Rumor has it (and by rumor, I mean a credible source
who knows how NFL training staffs operate) the Bengals may have
the most incompetent medical team in the league. I nominated Hardman
for the sole purpose of getting some owners to bite on his hype
and clear some money out of the room. No one bit. He is someone
I look forward to watching.
Total spent at WR: $67
Tight Ends
Actual $
My $
Player
Tm
Age
30
30
Travis Kelce
KC
31
24
27
Darren Waller
LV
28
18
24
George Kittle
SF
27
11
16
Mark Andrews
BAL
25
14
16
Kyle Pitts
ATL
20
11
15
T.J. Hockenson
DET
24
5
9
Noah Fant
DEN
23
7
9
Robert Tonyan
GB
27
2
9
Dallas Goedert
PHI
27
1
7
Jonnu Smith
NE
26
4
5
Logan Thomas
WAS
30
1
5
Mike Gesicki
MIA
25
1
4
Irv Smith
MIN
23
-
3
Gerald Everett
SEA
27
1
3
Evan Engram
NYG
26
2
3
Tyler Higbee
LAR
28
1
2
Blake Jarwin
DAL
27
1
2
Anthony Firkser
TEN
26
1
2
Hunter Henry
NE
26
2
2
Jared Cook
LAC
34
1
1
Austin Hooper
CLE
26
-
1
Cole Kmet
CHI
22
1
1
Rob Gronkowski
TB
32
1
1
Eric Ebron
PIT
28
2
1
Adam Trautman
NO
24
-
1
Jacob Harris
LAR
24
1
1
Zach Ertz
PHI
30
Total spent at TE: $30
Observations: Andrews
and Hockenson going for $11 apiece was painful to watch. Both
players are incredible values at that price point. It might be
worth considering nominating one of them early in drafts just
to see if you can get a similar bargain. The former is a legit
threat for 10 touchdowns and the other is a decent bet for 80
catches, so getting either one for $11 is a steal. As a whole,
this position played out about the way most should expect in their
12-team auctions otherwise: the top six brought double-digit bids
while everyone else was $7 or cheaper.
Probably the biggest shocker to me at this position was two of
the tight ends that went undrafted. Gerald Everett avoiding nomination
was a complete oversight by the league in my opinion. It would
not surprise me if he is this year's version of Tonyan - a high-efficiency
tight end who scores a healthy number of touchdowns. Cole Kmet
is a player that has been bypassed in several of my recent experts'
league drafts. While I have him at TE22 in my rankings, he is
about an extra touchdown in his projection away from moving to
TE16. I would be willing to bet Everett and Kmet will be regular
starters in this league at some point early in the season.
Strategy: Dual-threat quarterbacks and McCaffrey
are prime examples of fantasy cheat codes. A less obvious cheat
code is Kelce ($30), who would have the WR4 last year and WR10
in 2019 if he was grouped in with the receivers. The fact he can
usually be acquired around the $30 mark remains one of the fantasy
market's biggest bargains. Three more advantages of getting Kelce:
his durability, his weekly consistency and the added roster spot
(or the lack of the need to stream the position).
There is a chance I am getting on the Kelce train one year too
late, as my research earlier
this summer concluded age 32 is about the time fantasy managers
should expect even the most elite tight ends to fade. (Kelce will
turn 32 in October.) However, there are multiple reasons why Kelce
might be exempt from such a conclusion to his 2021 season. First
of all, there is very little Patrick Mahomes cannot do. He trusts
Kelce in just about every situation against any opponent. Kelce's
route-running ability remains the best part of his game and makes
him a tough matchup for cornerbacks - much less against linebackers
and safeties. Neither of those factors seems likely to change
much this year. Outside of ponying up for Kelce, I have no problem
with anyone who wants to save a few bucks and grab Waller ($24)
instead. After that, I would recommend dabbling in the Andrews/Hockenson
tier or setting my sights on Tonyan ($7). The industry is so convinced
he is due for regression that it has completely ruled out the
possibility he will be more involved in 2021 as a result of last
year's efficiency.
Kickers
Actual $
My $
Player
Tm
2
1
Justin Tucker
BAL
2
1
Harrison Butker
KC
1
1
Greg Zuerlein
DAL
1
1
Matt Prater
ARI
1
1
Ryan Succop
TB
1
1
Robbie Gould
SF
1
1
Tyler Bass
BUF
-
1
Matt Gay
LAR
1
1
Jason Sanders
MIA
-
1
Jason Myers
SEA
1
1
Rodrigo Blankenship
IND
1
1
Daniel Carlson
LV
1
1
Younghoe Koo
ATL
1
1
Mason Crosby
GB
Observations/strategy: Year after year, I look
for the same qualities in a kicker. I want someone with a strong
leg in a good offense. Additionally, I often target kickers who
play on teams with good or great defenses since coaches are more
apt to settle for field goals when they are confident in their defense.
Short of that, I look for a kicker on a team that I believe will
have a good offense but will bog down in the red zone because it
lacks a strong running attack. Bass ($1) was about the most consistent
kicker in fantasy football last season. Very little about his situation
has changed, including the likelihood that Buffalo will need to
kick its fair share of field goals because the Bills don't appear
ready to consistently trust anyone outside of Josh Allen near the
goal line.
Total spent at K: $1
Defense / ST
Actual $
My $
Team
3
2
Buccaneers
3
2
Broncos
3
2
Football Team
1
1
Ravens
1
1
Browns
1
1
49ers
2
1
Rams
-
1
Vikings
1
1
Colts
-
1
Packers
2
1
Patriots
1
1
Chargers
1
1
Steelers
-
1
Dolphins
-
1
Panthers
-
1
Cardinals
1
1
Seahawks
1
1
Bills
Observations/strategy: Conventional wisdom says
no one should spend more than a buck on defense. Conventional wisdom
does not play in the leagues I do, I guess. In the majority of my
high-stakes leagues, somewhere between four and six teams carry
two defenses and most of the others stream. Why continually burn
FAAB or waste waiver priority at a position just because it is deemed
overly volatile? I'd rather spend a buck or two more in August and
feel good about that team's ability to get at least three sacks
and force a turnover just about every week. Fantasy football is
about eliminating as many question marks from your lineup each week
as possible, not hoping some middling defense gets lucky in what
is perceived to be a soft matchup. You might think you have the
market cornered by getting whatever defense is going up against
Houston or Detroit this year, but I would be willing to bet at least
3-4 other managers are thinking the same thing. Washington ($3)
and Tampa Bay ($3) are ridiculously loaded on defense and should
push for 50 sacks this season. In my estimation, spending the next
dollar or two in August is better than trying to figure out which
low-end DST I want to trust in a given week.
I was stunned that I ended up with three quarterbacks, much less
three I have ranked inside my top 13. My good fortune was rewarded
a few days later when I was able to acquire Dillon in exchange
for Burrow. The quality of my running back depth is probably still
my biggest question mark, but Dillon and Bernard should end up
being solid flex plays on occasion. Wide receiver is rarely a
strength of my team in this league, but this is one of my better
units in my 13 years in the league. Tight end is obviously a strength,
and I believe I have top-five options at kicker and defense.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA TODAY's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM's "Fantasy Drive." Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.