Byes: Baltimore, Indianapolis,
Miami and Minnesota.
“The truth is more important than the facts.”
- Frank Lloyd Wright
1) Tua Tagovailoa will start in Week 8 after the Dolphins return
from their bye.
According to Adam Schefter, it appears the statement is true.
Those who have used Ryan Fitzpatrick, hopefully added the Tua
handcuff for insurance. This shouldn’t be an indictment
of Fitzmagic’s play (four games with at least 25 fantasy
points in six starts and a 3-3 record), but the long-term plan
for the organization. They aren’t beating Kansas City or
Baltimore or Pittsburgh in 2020, so it’s time to look to
the future. It won’t be easy for the rookie, he’ll
face Aaron Donald in his debut (Rams No.10 vs. opposing fantasy
QBs) and the blitz-crazy (at least Monday night against Andy Dalton
they were) Cardinals (No.6 vs. QBs) in Week 9.
2) Mike Davis’ production in Christian McCaffrey’s absence will
change the latter’s fantasy value.
True. Don’t get me wrong, CMC will still be the Panthers
stud running back, but Davis has “earned” some playing
time even when McCaffrey returns. Instead of McCaffrey playing
93.4% of the snaps as he saw in 2019, that total might drop to
about 83% (similar to the 2019 snap distribution between Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard). Would a corresponding 11% drop in production
change your opinion of McCaffrey? Unlikely, but it might be equal
to about three-points per game. He’s still the best back
in PPR leagues (he was eight points better than No.2 Dalvin Cook
in 2019), but the gap between McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara or Aaron Jones in 2020 might be a lot smaller.
3) The return of Michael Thomas to the New Orleans lineup will
reduce Alvin Kamara’s fantasy value.
Fact. Kamara is currently producing 29.5 FPts/G which includes
45 targets and 38 receptions in five games. That’s a 144
target pace with 121 receptions. Given that Kamara’s reception
total is the most consistent ever (he’s caught exactly 81
balls in each of his first three seasons), he’s likely to
return to that level when Thomas starts seeing nine-plus targets
again. As with McCaffrey, this doesn’t mean you should trade
Kamara, though his fantasy value will never be higher, it just
means if you were looking to trade for him you shouldn’t
expect 29.5 fantasy points per week. Think of him as you would
have in 2018 when he averaged 23.2 FPts/G.
4) It’s impossible to figure out the Steelers’ wide receiving
True. With rookie Chase Claypool coming on strong, Diontae Johnson
returning from multiple injuries, veteran JuJu Smith-Schuster
and even James Washington all getting significant target share,
it appears that from week-to-week only the game plan and Ben Roethlisberger
will know who is going to shine. Right now, if you ask me, the
pecking order is; 1) Claypool, 2) Johnson, 3) Smith-Schuster and
4) Washington. But that could change next week. JuJu owners can’t
be happy given his preseason ADP, but it’s still better
than catching passes from Mason Rudolph or Devlin “Duck”
5) Ryan Tannehill’s 33.1 FPts/G leads all fantasy quarterbacks
True. He faced an injured Buffalo defense (32.0 points), then
took apart a Texans’ pass defense (34.2). But he’s a false idol,
a mirage. He’ll be coming down to earth shortly. In fact, the
schedule is definitely turning against him beginning this weekend
against Pittsburgh. Then Cincinnati, Chicago, Indianapolis, Baltimore
and Indy again. Sell high! Sell now!
“The truth may be out there, but the lies are inside your
head.” – Terry Pratchett
1) You can’t trade Lamar Jackson, didn’t you see
that touchdown run against the Eagles? He’s back!
I saw the run and yes I can. Here’s why I might be willing
to trade Jackson. The schedule. After a bye this weekend he’s
got five tough games. He faces; Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, New
England, Tennessee and Pittsburgh again. Only Tennessee is outside
the top-10 in QB fantasy points allowed and Mike Vrabel will watch
what his mentor Bill Belichick devises the week before and copy
2) “He’s as good as anybody that I’ve coached and as good as
anybody that I’ve played against,” Belichick told reporters Monday.
(He was talking about George Kittle.)
No, that’s just coach speak about his next opponent. Sure,
Kittle is a great tight end. He might be the best tight end in
today’s game … sorry Travis Kelce. But the best Belichick
ever coached or played against? No. Absolutely not. Hey Bill,
what about Rob Gronkowski? What about Tom Brady? And, of course,
for those who know Belichick’s life before New England,
he ran the defense for the New York Giants in the 1980s and coached
the best defender I ever saw – Lawrence Taylor.
3) Andy Dalton is washed up.
False. Dalton isn’t Dak Prescott. Dalton wasn’t good
Monday night. But neither were the five guys in front of him.
I thought the Eagles OL was bad until I saw the Cowboys line Monday
night. Without Tyron Smith, La’el Collins and the retirement
of Travis Fredericks, the Dallas line is Zach Martin and four
imposters. Despite the lack of blocking, Dalton still managed
to throw for 266 yards and one touchdown thanks to garbage time.
The offensive line and two Ezekiel Elliott fumbles did the Cowboys
in before they had a chance to settle in. Dallas still has too
much talent at wide receiver for the team to go in a shell. They
will figure it out. Will Dalton throw for 450 yards? No, but he
should be a serviceable low-end QB option.
4) Zach Ertz still has fantasy value.
Unfortunately, false. Even before the ankle injury that will
keep him out of the lineup for 3-4 weeks, he was invisible. He
hadn’t scored a touchdown since Week 1. In the month of
October he saw 21 targets, caught just nine (42.9%), for 48 yards,
producing 13.8 fantasy points … total for three games. With
Dallas Goedert still on IR, the Eagles have no fantasy-worthy
tight ends. For a team which played two tight ends more than any
other last season, it’s a disaster. You can’t trade
Ertz at this point, so stash him and hope he returns in time for
the fantasy playoffs.
5) Ronald Jones can’t possibly continue at this productive level.
I’m beginning to believe he can. Three consecutive 100-yard rushing
games. Top-10 fantasy ranking in October (20.1 FPts/G). This Tampa
Bay offense is dangerous and versatile. They have great pass receivers
in Mike Evans,
and rookie Tyler
Johnson. And the old “Gronk” is back! Given those passing
options, Brady will use the running game to his advantage. He
doesn’t care about passing totals, just wins. Neither Leonard
McCoy nor rookie Ke’Shawn
Vaughn will threaten Jones’ workload. Jones has two favorable
matchups the next two weeks in Las Vegas and the Giants.