The current wave of injuries and the largest number of teams on
bye, including four prolific offenses, will make this the hardest
weekend of the year to produce a solid lineup … if you didn’t
plan ahead.
Byes: Buffalo, Dallas, Jacksonville, Los Angeles Chargers, Minnesota
and Pittsburgh.
Truths
“The truth does not change according to our ability
to stomach it.” – Flannery O’Connor
1) The worst nightmare for those who want to start Antonio Gibson
is he continues to miss practice due to the shin injury, but is
active for games.
True. It’s obvious he’s not 100% or anywhere near
that, but fantasy owners pretty much have to start him if he’s
activated on game day. He had in-game treatment for the shin last
Sunday and was forced to ride a stationary bike to keep things
loose. He’s also still giving way to J.D. McKissic in most
passing situations (McKissic has 19 targets over the last three
games) and the game script may not be favorable in the next few
matchups at Green Bay, at Denver and Tampa Bay. The unknown makes
it difficult for fantasy owners. It would be better if he just
sat out until he was healthy.
2) This could be a tough time to be looking for a quarterback
replacement if your backup isn’t the best because you will have
a lot of company scanning the waiver wire.
Correct. We hope you took our advice and mapped out a plan for
this a while ago. Not only does Week 7 have the most teams on
bye of any week this season (6), but it includes some of the best
quarterbacks. Josh Allen, Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert and Kirk Cousins will be watching from the couch like the rest of us and
even Trevor Lawrence has had three “fantasy-worthy”
games. I suggest Tua Tagovailoa (19% rostered playing against
Atlanta) or Daniel Jones (33% rostered) against a slumping Panthers’
pass defense which has yielded an average of 28.7 fantasy points
over the past three games.
3) Tom Brady has a man crush on Antonio Brown.
I think this must be true, otherwise how do you explain “AB”
seeing 13 targets on just 37 snaps while Mike Evans (70 snaps)
and Chris Godwin (68) saw just four and five targets, respectively?
Also, Brown leads the Bucs in targets per game with 8.4 versus
8.2 for Evans and 7.7 for Godwin despite a significantly lower
snap percentage (Brown 53.2%, Evans 85.3% and Godwin 89.2%). Brady
is making sure the guy he “forced” the Bucs to take
a chance on, despite a “challenging” past, succeeds.
Keep starting Brown and don’t worry about the snap counts.
4) Tyler Boyd is the third wheel.
True. When all three wideouts are active (Boyd, Tee
Higgins and Ja’Marr
Chase), Boyd is averaging just 7.2 fantasy points. When he’s
one of two (in this case when Higgins was sidelined for a couple
of games) he averaged 17.2 FPts/G. After analyzing Boyd’s production
it’s apparent that he needs at least seven targets a game to produce
fantasy-worthy numbers and that’s a lot harder with three talented
receivers on the field at the same time.
Tyler Boyd's Fantasy Production
Targets
2020
2021
6 or less
6.1
7.0
7 or more
17.3
17.6
5) T.Y. Hilton should be the No. 1 waiver claim this week.
Fact. It wasn’t long ago that many thought Hilton would
retire due to a neck issue, but he returned last Sunday and looked
like the same old TY. In his first game back off the injured list
he caught all four targets for 80 yards in a game which was dominated
by the running of Jonathan Taylor. Carson Wentz only threw the
ball 20 times and despite being on the field just 50% of the time
he led the team in targets and yards. He’s only rostered
in 39% of all leagues and if he can stay healthy he can be Wentz’s
new “DeSean Jackson” which won’t make those
who start Michael Pittman Jr. very happy.
Lies
“Get your facts first, and then you can distort them as
much as you please.” – Mark Twain
1) Myles Gaskin, Malcolm Brown and Salvon Ahmed are in a three-man
RBBC making them all unusable.
False. Ignore the usage from the loss against Jacksonville in
London (Gaskin 36%, Brown 36% and Ahmed 27%). The reason the trio
saw equal usage is that Gaskin fumbled with three minutes remaining
in the first quarter and was basically benched for the second
quarter. If he can hold the ball, Gaskin can still be the lead
back, although it’s a shaky position with a short leash
at best.
2) Khalil Herbert is a godsend to fantasy owners after a great
performance in Week 6.
Sorry, but no. It will be back to a shared backfield when Damien Williams returns from the Covid-19 list, though he should certainly
be the lead back. Additionally, Herbert has a horrible matchup
in Week 7 against the defending champion Bucs, who rank No. 2
against opposing RBs. They have allowed just 17 fantasy points
a game to opposing backfields with only the aforementioned Gaskin
having produced more than 13 fantasy points against them in a
game. Eventually David Montgomery will return (possibly after
the Week 10 bye) to muddy the waters further.
3) Many people think D’Ernest Johnson should be everyone’s No.
1 waiver claim this week.
He probably will be, but the correct answer, is false. Yes, both
Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb are out for the Week 7 Thursday night
game against Denver, but this isn’t going to be a “Khalil Herbert-like” situation. He will not produce a big number.
Johnson isn’t that good and will end up sharing time with
Demetric Felton. The rookie Felton only has been used as a receiver
out of the backfield so far in 2021, but Felton was a solid running
back at UCLA with a 5.1 ypc average and 99 career receptions and
should see his fair share of the workload. Also concerning, for
both running backs, is a poorly performing and injured Baker Mayfield
or a journeyman Case Keenum under center bogging down any offensive
flow. The Broncos are ranked No. 4 against opposing RBs allowing
just 17.1 total fantasy points per game. As I said earlier, think
Hilton.
4) Travis Kelce is slumping.
OK, his production is down from last season (20.8 FPts/G), but
that was a record-setting season. Did you really expect back-to-back
record-breaking seasons? How often does that happen? I’m
sorry if you took him too high, but his 18.1 FPts/G is still elite
and he leads the position in total fantasy points. No one other
than Kelce has produced at this level since Jimmy Graham in 2013.
5) Derrick Henry is not the best running back in football.
Did you watch Monday night? Sure, Christian McCaffrey is great
when he’s healthy because he runs and catches the ball (he’s
missed 16 of the last 22 games), but he’s not “King
Henry.” Jonathan Taylor looked good too and Najee Harris
could develop into something. But Henry is the best pure runner
in the game and the best pure running since Adrian Peterson in
his prime. He’s also starting to catch a few balls out of
the backfield too. He’s just three receptions from a career
high (19). Oh, and by the way, what would the call have been if
the Titans were on the 2-yard line and had fourth and one with
the game on the line? It wouldn’t have been a Ryan Tannehill
sneak! In the fourth quarter and a tiring defense, no one wants
to tackle this 250-lb tank who runs as quickly as a Ferrari goes
from 0-to-60. If he can stay healthy, Henry will be the first
in NFL history to produce three consecutive 1500 yards, 15 TD
seasons.