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Truths and Lies - Week 7
5) T.Y. Hilton should be the No. 1 waiver claim this week.
Fact. It wasn’t long ago that many thought Hilton would
retire due to a neck issue, but he returned last Sunday and looked
like the same old TY. In his first game back off the injured list
he caught all four targets for 80 yards in a game which was dominated
by the running of Jonathan Taylor. Carson Wentz only threw the
ball 20 times and despite being on the field just 50% of the time
he led the team in targets and yards. He’s only rostered
in 39% of all leagues and if he can stay healthy he can be Wentz’s
new “DeSean Jackson” which won’t make those
who start Michael Pittman Jr. very happy.
1) Myles Gaskin, Malcolm Brown and Salvon Ahmed are in a three-man RBBC making them all unusable.
False. Ignore the usage from the loss against Jacksonville in London (Gaskin 36%, Brown 36% and Ahmed 27%). The reason the trio saw equal usage is that Gaskin fumbled with three minutes remaining in the first quarter and was basically benched for the second quarter. If he can hold the ball, Gaskin can still be the lead back, although it’s a shaky position with a short leash at best.
2) Khalil Herbert is a godsend to fantasy owners after a great performance in Week 6.
Sorry, but no. It will be back to a shared backfield when Damien Williams returns from the Covid-19 list, though he should certainly be the lead back. Additionally, Herbert has a horrible matchup in Week 7 against the defending champion Bucs, who rank No. 2 against opposing RBs. They have allowed just 17 fantasy points a game to opposing backfields with only the aforementioned Gaskin having produced more than 13 fantasy points against them in a game. Eventually David Montgomery will return (possibly after the Week 10 bye) to muddy the waters further.
3) Many people think D’Ernest Johnson should be everyone’s No. 1 waiver claim this week.
He probably will be, but the correct answer, is false. Yes, both Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb are out for the Week 7 Thursday night game against Denver, but this isn’t going to be a “Khalil Herbert-like” situation. He will not produce a big number. Johnson isn’t that good and will end up sharing time with Demetric Felton. The rookie Felton only has been used as a receiver out of the backfield so far in 2021, but Felton was a solid running back at UCLA with a 5.1 ypc average and 99 career receptions and should see his fair share of the workload. Also concerning, for both running backs, is a poorly performing and injured Baker Mayfield or a journeyman Case Keenum under center bogging down any offensive flow. The Broncos are ranked No. 4 against opposing RBs allowing just 17.1 total fantasy points per game. As I said earlier, think Hilton.
4) Travis Kelce is slumping.
OK, his production is down from last season (20.8 FPts/G), but that was a record-setting season. Did you really expect back-to-back record-breaking seasons? How often does that happen? I’m sorry if you took him too high, but his 18.1 FPts/G is still elite and he leads the position in total fantasy points. No one other than Kelce has produced at this level since Jimmy Graham in 2013.
5) Derrick Henry is not the best running back in football.
Did you watch Monday night? Sure, Christian McCaffrey is great
when he’s healthy because he runs and catches the ball (he’s
missed 16 of the last 22 games), but he’s not “King
Henry.” Jonathan Taylor looked good too and Najee Harris
could develop into something. But Henry is the best pure runner
in the game and the best pure running since Adrian Peterson in
his prime. He’s also starting to catch a few balls out of
the backfield too. He’s just three receptions from a career
high (19). Oh, and by the way, what would the call have been if
the Titans were on the 2-yard line and had fourth and one with
the game on the line? It wouldn’t have been a Ryan Tannehill
sneak! In the fourth quarter and a tiring defense, no one wants
to tackle this 250-lb tank who runs as quickly as a Ferrari goes
from 0-to-60. If he can stay healthy, Henry will be the first
in NFL history to produce three consecutive 1500 yards, 15 TD