In the first chart below is the record for every starting quarterback in the month of September.

I don’t know about you, but the first thing that caught my eye was the obscene way Patrick Mahomes starts his seasons. He’s produced a 119.7 QB Rating, which is 14 points above his career average, with a stunning 49 touchdown passes against just four interceptions. That’s an average of 3.1 touchdown passes per game. He also opens up the season against Detroit (ranked 32nd in fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs in 2022) along with Jacksonville (27th) and Chicago (26th) before a big challenge against the Jets’ fifth-ranked pass defense.

Add in five rushing touchdowns to 28 passing scores and Lamar Jackson is putting up good numbers in September. He’ll have the best receiving group he’s ever had this year in Rashod Bateman, Odell Beckham Jr., rookie Zay Flowers and All-Pro tight end Mark Andrews, but his schedule is on the tough side with Cleveland (No.1), Houston (2nd) and Cincinnati (6th).

Jalen Hurts has plenty of skill position players to throw the ball to and a relatively easy schedule to beat up on. New England (22nd), Minnesota (28th), Tampa Bay (18th) and the Commanders (14th) should allow him to get off to a quick start.

In a previous piece we noted how much better Jared Goff is at home than on the road. He’ll get to play at Ford Field in Week 2 and Week 3 after facing the Kansas City Chiefs in the opener. We already know Mahomes is going to put up big numbers, so Goff will be throwing early and often in that one. Fortunately, the Chiefs were 31st last season in QB fantasy points allowed and most likely going to be without their best defender – Chris Jones.

At the other end of the spectrum, things don’t look favorable for a quick Mac Jones start. His history isn’t good to begin the season and he’ll be facing the Eagles (10th), Dolphins (29th), Jets and Dallas (15th)… only one team in the bottom half of the league.

Also, Daniel Jones, even with an offensive-minded head coach in Brian Daboll didn’t throw for 200 yards in any September game last year. In fact, he threw for 200 yards or less in 11 regular season games last year, which means he better be running the ball, a lot, to make up for the low passing totals. Three of the four teams he’ll face gave up less than 300 total rushing yards to opposing QBs for the entire season in 2022.

Now I’m going to contradict everything I said about the numbers… because sometimes they lie and you must dive deeper to understand the numbers. Trevor Lawrence doesn’t have good September numbers from afar, but that’s because in his first season he hardly had a head coach. Three times in four games under head coach Urban Meyer, Lawrence threw for less than 220 yards. With a real offense-minded head coach in 2022 Lawrence was better averaging 240 yards and two touchdown passes per game. He kept improving under Doug Pederson throughout the year and should be ready for Indianapolis (23rd), Kansas City (31st), Houston (2nd) and Atlanta (19th).

Finally, you may be excited about the way Steelers rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett ended his first season, I know I am, but the start of his sophomore year looks like it could be a bit bumpy. The 49ers (11th) on Opening Day, then facing the top-rated QB defense of the Browns is a rough way to start the year.