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Truths and Lies - Week 5



By Steve Schwarz | 10/2/24

It takes a really talented quarterback to both throw an interception AND end his best wide receiver’s season on the same play, but Patrick Mahomes managed to do just that. Hall of Fame material. The injury bug continued with Rashee Rice, Jonathan Taylor, Christian Watson, Evan Engram and Malik Nabers getting caught in the web. And to top it off, the “bye” portion of the schedule begins now..

Byes – Detroit, Los Angeles Chargers, Philadelphia, Tennessee

Truths

The truth as to why the 1/3 burger experiment failed in the USA (A&W, McDonalds and Fuddruckers among others) is Americans thought they were getting less meat than the 1/4 pounder because three is smaller than four. Our education system must get better.

1) I used to like the 16-game schedule because it allowed me to divide the season into easy to understand portions (4 = quarter, 8 = half).

Now, after the first four games we need to discuss 23.5% of the season and eight games as 47.1% of the season. Given the above example of our educational system at work, people may not understand things as easily. Ja’Marr Chase has produced 300 yards in four games which would be on pace for a clean and tidy 1,200-yard season in a 16-game schedule but instead … he’s on pace for 1,275 yards which is less easy to visualize. Sorry, I don’t make the rules.

2) Bo Nix’s first half against the Jets last weekend was legendary. He went 7-for-15 for minus seven passing yards.

Truth. I never saw a minus number for a halftime statistic unless it was one pass – usually by a receiver or running back, never a non-injured starting quarterback. The truly amazing fact is that while he threw for just 60 yards for the entire game, Courtland Sutton produced a fantasy-worthy total by going 3-60-1 for 15 fantasy points. Also, the Denver Broncos won the game!

Jayden Daniels

3) The Commanders’ Jayden Daniels is what Anthony Richardson owners thought they were getting.

Fact. Daniels ranks third in FPts/G among quarterbacks (behind only Jordan Love and Lamar Jackson) at 25.7 per game. He’s produced three good games in four starts with only a Giants’ clunker among three 25-point plus performances. He’s got an unsustainable, yet very impressive, 82.1% completion rate and rushed for four scores. Meanwhile, in Indianapolis, Richardson is completing just 50.6% of his passes and rushed for one touchdown. He’s produced 16.2 FPts/G which ranks 23rd among QBs. And he was injured again. The only good news I can give “A-Rich” owners is he’s been through a much tougher schedule and should get better moving forward.

4) The top-five fantasy quarterbacks by FPts/G are; Love, Jackson, Daniels, Mayfield and Darnold.

Really. No, I’m not kidding you. No, I didn’t forget Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts or Dak Prescott. By the way, Carolina had both Mayfield (24.9 FPts/G) and Darnold (23.9) on its roster in recent seasons. The Panthers, who spent a fortune to trade up for the now benched Bryce Young, had two gentleman who are producing top-five fantasy totals. One team is undefeated and the other is 3-1. Don’t tell me coaching doesn’t matter. Don’t tell me organizations don’t matter.

5) The second leading kicker is still a free agent in 93% of all leagues.

True. He didn’t start the season, but he became the Commanders kicker in Week 2. Austin Seibert is 10-for-10 on field goal attempts and 9-for-9 on extra points. The only mark against him is that he hasn’t attempted a 50-yard field goal… yet. He’s averaging 13 fantasy points per game and only Brandon Aubrey is better (13.5).

Lies

“In today’s society, a lie is anything with which you don’t agree.” – Steve Schwarz

1) It was a wonderful week in New York.

False. Perhaps the weather was nice, but the two New York teams scored ZERO touchdowns in Week 4. Daniel Jones and Aaron Rodgers led their team to 24 points - but no touchdowns. Devin Singletary, going up against the worst run defense in the league through three games (allowing 185.7 ypg), managed just 24 yards on 14 carries (4.8 fantasy points). Meanwhile, after watching “ARod” improve his fantasy totals each week, he threw a 13.9 number at fantasy owners. And where oh where was Breece Hall? He was posting 3.8 fantasy points. Please call your New York area friends and check in on them. Good mental health is very important.

2) Patrick Mahomes is an elite “fantasy” quarterback.

Sorry, no. He was No.9 last season (among those with more than one start) and he’s currently No.15 through 23.5% of the season. He’s lost his star wideout, Rice, because he doesn’t know how to tackle. He’s missing Marquise Brown. He’s missing his top running back, Isiah Pacheco, for about two months. Oh, he’s still a great quarterback and has led his team to two consecutive Super Bowl wins and is undefeated through four games in 2024. He’s just not an elite fantasy option.

3) Christian McCaffrey will be back on the field in time to help your fantasy team.

I’m beginning to think this is false. What started out as a small calf injury keeping him out of preseason games and training camp, but he’ll be ready for opening day, is now Achilles tendonitis in both legs. He went to Germany for a mystery treatment. We are four games into the season and there is still no timeline for his return. He could miss a month, two months or not return until 2025. Mason is sure to already be on a roster, but it wouldn’t hurt you to stash Isaac Guerendo in case Mason gets injured down the road.

4) WRs don’t get injured as much as QBs or RBs because they are away from the fierce action and get hit by smaller guys.

False. Currently four of the top-six receivers (by FPts/G) are injured. A.J. Brown’s hamstring injury was during practice, but Nabers (concussion), Rice (knee), and Cooper Kupp (ankle) were all injured during tackles. Deebo Samuel (calf), Adam Thielen (hamstring), Puka Nacua (knee), Tank Dell (ribs), Keenan Allen (heel) and DeVonta Smith (concussion) have also missed time due to in-game injury. There is nowhere to hide on a football field.

5) The Kirk Cousins experiment isn’t headed for abject failure.

False. The “Michael Penix Jr. Era” should be started as soon as possible. Sure, the Atlanta Falcons are 2-2 and in the race for the division crown with Tampa. But in truth, he’s been mediocre - at best. Is that what the Falcons paid $160 million for? They were handed a win by the Eagles (which Cousins took full advantage of) and Younghoe Koo won them the Saints game with his leg. Cousins has thrown four touchdown passes and four interceptions. He’s averaging just 216 passing yards per game and after his Achilles injury can’t run (six carries for minus two yards). Put in the rookie.