Talented players like TE David Njoku (CLE)
can be had late in first round of your rookie draft.
For those of us immersed in the dynasty fantasy football world the
rookie draft is a big event. Much like the real NFL draft, the rookie
draft signifies not only the beginning of a new season, but also
the chance to improve your team for this year. While players in
the rookie class turn out being busts more often than studs, the
eternal hope for landing a future star or a diamond in the rough
always gets the juices flowing for hardcore fantasy managers like
you and I.
This year’s class was heralded for a long time as one of the
best classes in years. While some would argue it is over-hyped,
I would point out the depth, especially at the RB and TE positions
make it an excellent year. While the landing spots of some players
have made it difficult to gauge their true value, it also makes
for some interesting long term investments that could pay off down
the road.
I am part of several dynasty leagues, each with a little different
scoring system and makeup, but I wanted to highlight one of the
rookie drafts I was recently a part of. This particular league is
fairly traditional (No PPR, 12 teams, 2 RB, 3WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex) EXCEPT
it is a 2 QB league, which obviously changes some strategy.
Whatever your personal thoughts on this draft are, I hope this real-life
draft example can be used as a tool for your upcoming drafts. Enjoy!
Best Pick of the Round: Depending
on your league setup I think the first four picks of the draft could
be in just about any order. The best pick in this round was David Njoku at No.12. Njoku has the most fantasy appeal of any tight end
in this year’s class, especially long term, so to get him
six picks after O.J. Howard is excellent value. Njoku is just 20
years old and has all the measurables of an elite tight end, in
addition to solid production at the University of Miami. Everyone
knows it takes a bit of time for tight ends to adjust and Njoku
probably will be no different but given his age and his freakish
athletic talent, he could easily be a top ten fantasy tight end
before he reaches 24 years old, making dynasty owners salivate with
that kind of long term value.
While some quiver at the thought of Cleveland as a landing spot,
I see it oppositely. In Cleveland, Njoku has the chance to be the
focus of the offense, as there are no proven skill players currently
on the team. With the draft capital they spent on Njoku I could
easily see the team building around him and creating an offense
that highlights the position, much like Greg Olsen in Carolina,
who Njoku has drawn comparisons to. With DeShone Kizer also being
drafted this year, the rookies should get plenty of reps together,
building chemistry. Short-term, I think Njoku could make some noise
this season, as the team released Gary Barnidge and has no real
red-zone threats at the moment. A 2016 Hunter Henry-esque season
could well be in the cards for Njoku, with much more production
long term.
Worst Pick of the Round: I know opinions
(and where he is taken) seem to vary wildly on Kareem Hunt, but
count me in the group that thinks he is an average prospect. Hunt
has adequate size and measurables and has proven to be a solid contributor
in the pass game. The problem is, while he projects to be a solid
NFL contributor and maybe even an eventual starter, he lacks elite
skills to make him a true difference maker. When I’m drafting
rookies, who often bust anyway, I want to shoot for the stars. Although
he is thickly built, does not seem to run to his size, choosing
rather to dance or spin outside rather than using power to finish
a run. Once he gets to the next level he has adequate, but not game-breaking
speed, and looks like a “tweener”, too slow to outrun
the defense but not powerful enough to run through them either.
As far as his landing spot, I’m a fan of Spencer Ware as he
showed very well last year before getting hurt and wearing down
in the second half of the season. Ware is the starter until (if)
he gets hurt and Hunt is more of a complimentary piece to keep Ware
fresh. Even if Hunt were to take over as starter he won’t
be anything more than a flex play. There are more players, even
at the RB position, with more fantasy appeal (and value) than Hunt.
Best Pick of the Round: The Alvin Kamara pick was solid and I am also a big fan of D’Onta Foreman
at No.19 overall but the pick I think I like the most here was Zay Jones at No.17. While Jones is not an elite physical specimen, he
does have adequate size, speed, and strength, and certainly has
the college production that should translate well to the NFL. The
Bills are not exactly an offensive powerhouse but I think things
are setting up nicely both short and long-term for Jones to be an
impact player. First off, the Bills receiving corps is lacking depth
giving Jones a path to playing time. I will be shocked if Jones
does not open the season as the number two receiver and this alone
should get him 5-7 targets per week. If Sammy Watkins stays healthy,
Jones will have the advantage of defenses paying attention to Watkins,
which should lead to more efficient outcomes for Jones. If Watkins
gets hurt, which is not a stretch at all, Jones could be the number
one receiver and see 7-10 targets a week. No rookie receiver, outside
maybe Corey Davis could see the targets Jones gets this year in
most scenarios.
The Bills did not pick up Watkins option for next season, and may
be willing to let him walk due to his injury history. Jones, with
a year under his belt could be the main receiving option next season,
and while he does not have the traditional elite No.1 WR physical
makeup, I could easily see a Jarvis Landry type production level
or even a poor man’s Antonio Brown type career going forward.
Jones runs great routes all over the field and despite his average
size, plays bigger than he looks. According to many sources, Jones
has great character, focus, and work ethic and looks like someone
who will get the most out of his natural ability.
Worst Pick of the Round: I liked most
picks in this round but the one that stood out to me as being poor
value was Jamaal Williams at No.16. Williams reminds me of Hunt
in that I believe he is an all-around decent prospect but more likely
destined to be a career backup than a superstar. Williams is a nicely
built back who does not fumble and hits the hole fairly hard, but
his athleticism is below average for the position and shows little
to no “special” qualities as a runner. I get why people
are excited about him, as Green Bay has an explosive offense and
theoretically just Ty Montgomery, a converted WR, ahead of him on
the depth chart. But, Green Bay doesn't have to use their backs
in a traditional way to be successful, as they did with Montgomery
last season, who, by the way, managed 5.9 yards per carry last year.
As a compliment to Montgomery, I can see value in Williams, as a
grinder and a between-the-tackles guy who could be the answer to
closing out games when the team has a large lead. But as a feature
back in this offense, I do not see a lot of upside and part of me
prefers Aaron Jones - who the Packers drafted after Williams –
for long-term upside at the position. Bottom line: Williams will
fill a useful role this year and might even get a handful of garbage
time touchdown runs, but there are much better options for week-to-week
value, even at this point in the draft.
Best Pick of the Round: I’m
a fan of the Gerald Everett pick at No.25 but the steal of the round,
and perhaps the entire draft was Chris Godwin at pick No.27. As
I mentioned at the top of this article, landing spots can potentially
camouflage a player’s true value and I think this is the case
for Godwin. Coming into this rookie draft Godwin was my number three
overall wide receiver. Yes, ahead of Williams, and ahead of everyone
else but Davis and Ross. The landing spot is not ideal as Godwin
will start the season no better than third on the depth chart and
may be as low as 4th or 5th in targets if you include the solid
tight end’s that the Bucs employ. The value with Godwin is
more long-term if you have faith in his talent, and I clearly do.
Godwin can beat you in multiple ways, on down-field routes using
his speed (4.42 40 at the combine), and on shorter routes, including
the red-zone using his toughness, size, precision, and box-out ability
to shield defenders. Throw in the fact that he’s a solid run
blocker and a smart player with solid work ethic and it adds up
to a guy that the Bucs will be hard pressed to keep off the field.
While Godwin will probably not make much of an impact this season
(barring an injury), I could see him eventually being the second
most targeted player in this offense (behind Evans of course), and
with the defenses attention on Evans, Godwin could be one of the
most productive No.2 receivers in the NFL in 2-3 years. In dynasty
leagues Godwin is a great investment, especially if he falls past
the mid-second round as he did here.
Worst Pick of the Round: Since this
is a two-QB league I can’t fault owners for taking quarterbacks
in Round 3, and I think most of the other players in the round have
some argument for upside, but the pick I liked the least was Carlos Henderson. Henderson is a project that ties up a roster spot, in
all but the deepest of dynasty leagues. He was a one-year wonder
against sub-par competition at Louisiana Tech, where he used pure
athleticism and little else to overwhelm less gifted players. As
the most talented player on his team, he racked up impressive stats
but seems to be a raw prospect with upside capped as a WR3. As a
returner, Henderson should see the field fairly soon and perhaps
make a nice impact for the Broncos on special teams, but will be
buried on the receiver depth chart on a team with a shaky quarterback
situation, Henderson checks almost none of the boxes I want when
evaluating a prospect for dynasty purposes. There were easily 6-8
players that went undrafted that I would have chosen ahead of Henderson
for their upside and/or landing spot.
Post-Draft Overview
Overall I like the depth at a number of positions, especially RB
and TE where a guy like Everett, for example, who went in Round
3, might have gone in the early second round in the past couple
of years. There is a tier drop after the first four picks and then
again after about pick 12 or 13. If I’m sitting with a top-4
pick I’m ecstatic, and if it’s a pick in the 5-12 range
I’m also pretty happy. I think the worst spot to be in this
year is in the 13-18ish range where players are very similar. If
I held picks in that range, I’d be looking to either trade
up a few spots to maximize talent or trade back a few spots to maximize
value. Best of luck in your drafts!
