Draft season is in full effect and the name
of the game is finding value. With so many good players available,
often winners and losers in fantasy drafts turn out to be the owners
that maximize value on every single pick. Below is my list of 10
players who I believe are getting drafted too high based on ADP
in 12 team standard scoring leagues. I don’t necessarily think
these players are guys to be avoided entirely, although some I would,
but taking them at their current ADP means you are reaching for
them at or above their ceilings. A good, current ADP list is an
essential tool to use in your draft, so pairing this list with current
ADP’s could save you from wasting value and instead, steer
you in the right direction when your bargain hunting on draft day.
Kamara's workload isn't inline with traditional
workhorse RBs making him overvalued in Round 1.
Kamara burst on the scene as a rookie and surprised just about everyone
on his way to a top 5 RB fantasy season in most formats. What was
remarkable about Kamara was the way he did it, not as a workhorse,
but with extreme efficiency, averaging 6.1 YPC and 10.2 YPR. These
numbers are historically efficient and are very unlikely to go anywhere
but down this season, based not only on historical trends, but also
on the fact that defenses can now scheme against the Saints biggest
playmaker.
For Kamara fans who believe he will get a significantly bigger workload
this season, making up for a drop in efficiency, I would strongly
disagree and point to he fact that head coach Sean Payton has stated
numerous times that he doesn’t see Kamara getting any
more work than he did last year. The bottom line: Kamara is a solid
player that should have continued success based on his situation
and talent but using a top 10 overall pick on him based on one historically
fluky season is a recipe for disaster. I’d feel much safer
taking more traditional workhorse backs like Melvin Gordon, Leonard Fournette, and Kareem Hunt who all have similar upside with higher
floors based on usage.
I will preface this by saying I have loved McKinnon since he was
drafted and own in him several dynasty leagues. His athletic profile
is off the charts and when the 49ers signed him to a relatively
big deal this offseason I was as excited as one can get about his
prospects.
The problem with McKinnon is his ADP. Taking him in the early third
round, especially in a standard scoring league, is betting on him
hitting his absolute ceiling in production and health. While McKinnon’s
athleticism has never been in question, he has not produced more
than mediocre numbers at a consistent rate as a runner in his first
four years in the NFL, averaging 4.0 YPC and just 7 rushing touchdowns
with nearly 500 carries. He’s been more efficient as a receiver,
but still has only 5 touchdowns with nearly 150 receptions.
While the 49ers may have a better scheme, it is likely his efficiency
on the ground will not increase and it remains to be seen if he
will get enough total touches in standard leagues to be anything
more than a flex player. Add this to the concern that McKinnon’s
body type may not be ideal to hold up to a rigorous workload, and
you have too many red flags for a 3rd round pick. In his range I’d
prefer Derrick Henry, Mike Evans, and probably even Alex Collins.
I have nothing against Aaron Rodgers, as he is one of, if not the
very best at his position. Rodgers just happens to be the first
QB taken in most drafts and in the third round that is extremely
bad value, and almost a wasted pick.
I could nitpick here and point out that he lost Jordy Nelson and
that his receiving corps is underwhelming. I could possibly argue
that his defense is improved which might lead to fewer passing attempts.
I might even touch on his age (34) and his injury history to try
to convince you a drop-off may be coming, but I won’t. The
reason Rodgers is on this list is because the QB position is deeper
than ever and the third round is filled with players that have legit
chances to be top 12 at more important positions.
In standard leagues I have been waiting until the 9th round to take
a quarterback and have been thrilled to see the quality available,
from Philip
Rivers, to Jimmy
Garoppolo, to Ben
Roethlisberger, and Patrick
Mahomes. There is a great mix of proven vets to high-ceiling
youth available after you fill out all the rest of your RB/WR starters
and even key reserves.
In the third and fourth rounds I count at least 7 players that have
a realistic chance to be top 12 at their respective positions where
the depth dries up very quickly. Taking those positions gives you
a real advantage over owners who taking quarterbacks in rounds 3
through 6. Last year the number one fantasy QB and the 12th fantasy
QB were separated by less than a hundred fantasy points, whereas
the difference between the top RB and the 24th RB was nearly two
hundred. Getting top players at more shallow positions should be
a top priority and avoiding any QBs, even Rodgers, in the first
five rounds is a sound strategy.
The second and final QB on this list is also a very bad value for
much of the same reasons explained above: quality depth at the QB
position and the heightened value of the RB and WR positions. But
what makes Watson is an even worse value is his lack of proven track
record.
Watson’s situation is similar to Kamara, in that they both hit unsustainable
levels of efficiency. Watson is being drafted high based on a five-game
stretch where he averaged over 30 fantasy points per game. In those
five games Watson accounted for 19 touchdowns and averaged well
over 300 total yards per game. Besides the fact that these numbers
are historically unsustainable there are two additional factors
that I see that make these numbers misleading and unlikely to be
repeated.
First, four of the five the defenses he played (NE, TEN, KC, CLE,)
were bad defenses verses the pass, all finishing in the bottom 15
of the league.
Second, Watson did not enter the season as the starter and teams
were unprepared for his style and tendencies. With tougher opponents
in 2018 and a full offseason for defenses to prepare, the chances
Watson comes close to repeating that five-game stretch are remote
to say the least.
Throw in a subpar offensive line and you have a recipe for a disaster.
While I’m not writing off Watson as a talent that can put
up good fantasy numbers as a dual-threat QB, there is zero chance
I am going anywhere near him in the first eight rounds. Do yourself
a favor and let someone else take a chance on Watson in the first
five rounds while you gather high-upside players at more shallow
positions in that range like Brandin Cooks, Royce Freeman, and Allen Robinson.
JuJu burst on the scene last year as a rookie and finished as a
top 20 fantasy WR even though he missed a couple games and was not
fully trusted by his QB until several weeks into the season. While
I like JuJu and think he can be productive, I see him constantly
being drafted as a high-end WR2 instead of a low-end WR2, which
is where I think his production lies. While the distinction may
mean the difference of only a round or two, it is small differences
that can determine you winning or losing several games during the
season and maximizing the value in your draft.
What I see is a player whose numbers were skewed because of two
huge games (32 fantasy points in each) vs terrible pass defenses
(Detroit and Cleveland), with one of those games coming in a meaningless
Week 17 matchup.
I also see an offense that will have trouble feeding JuJu with any
kind of legitimate consistency, as he is going to be the third option,
with some weeks being the 5th option, depending on Vance
McDonald’s health and rookie James
Washington’s development.
In a best-ball format I love JuJu this year but I fear he is going
to be too inconsistent, especially if you are counting on WR2 numbers
from him every week. If I’m picking in the 4th round I’m looking
at players that offer a similar upside but more consistency. Players
that fit this bill would include Larry
Fitzgerald, Jarvis
Landry, and even Chris
Hogan.
Two Saints RB’s on the list?! You must think I hate the Saints,
which is totally not true, but I do think their success last season
has fantasy owners overly excited making their RBs bad values in
drafts.
There are several reason why I am not taking Ingram in the first
five rounds this year. First, the four-game suspension means Ingram
is missing 25% of the fantasy season right off the bat. That’s
not something to take lightly, as you can easily take another top
50 player who won’t be squandered on your bench during the
first month of the season.
Second, if you’ve paid attention to Ingram and the Saints
the past couple years you know that they haven’t fully trusted
him as their workhorse. The signing of Adrian Peterson last offseason
was curious despite Ingram coming off a solid season and we all
know Kamara is going to have his piece of the offense. It’s
possible the Saints run game gets going without Ingram (Jonathan Williams?) and won’t be given as big a piece of the pie as
you might think.
Third, Ingram will be 29 by the end of the season and with over
1,300 career touches, it’s not outside the realm of possibilities
that Ingram could get off to a slow start when he does return. Would
it be a surprise if his productivity started to decline? While I’m
not writing him off - I initially thought he’d be a value after
his suspension - the 4th round is just way too soon for a player
that has had one elite fantasy year in 7 seasons and that is guaranteed
to miss a quarter of the season. In the range I’d much rather have
Zach
Ertz, Royce
Freeman, Larry
Fitzgerald, Allen
Robinson, and probably even Marshawn
Lynch.
I get why there’s always one owner in every league that drafts
Gordon this high. His 2013 season was absurdly amazing, posting
a 87-1646-9 line in just 14 games. That kind of upside comes around
once in a decade and even though it was five years ago, there’s
still that glimmer of hope that he may return to those lofty heights.
The problem is, the chance is very small and sure, in the late rounds
it’s worth the gamble that he may stay clean, get himself
together, play 14+ games, and live up to the hype. But, spending
a top 50 on that happening is a waste of value. The 3 main reasons
I am staying clear of Gordon in the first 7 rounds are...
First, in the two seasons Gordon managed to play since that magical
2013 season (2014 and 2017), Gordon has 42 catches for 638 yards
and 1 touchdown in 10 games, averaging 15 yards per reception. Decent
numbers, but nowhere near 4th round worthy. Is it possible he lost
something since that 2013 season? Could 2013 just be a fluke?
This leads me to point number two, Gordon’s baggage. I think
we all hope he can get his act together and overcome whatever issues
he has off the field, but the fact remains we have to take this
into account the risk. The bottom line is he’s probably one
mistake away from a significant, possibly lifetime ban from the
NFL.
Finally, even if Gordon keeps his nose clean and replicates the
talent that we saw back in 2013, the Browns situation has changed.
In 2013 Gordon was the lead dog, amassing 159 targets in 14 games
(11 per game). That is simply not going to happen this season. The
team added target-hog Jarvis Landry, drafted a highly talented rookie
receiver in Antonio Callaway, has one of the game’s best receiving
threats out of the backfield in Duke Johnson, and one of the most
physically talented young tight ends in the league in David Njoku.
With this many mouths to feed Gordon may find it difficult to get
half the amount of targets he did in his best season.
Overall the risk just simply outweighs the reward in this case and
there are simply much safer options in the late fourth round.
Strangely enough, Jeffery had his best season five years ago, in
2013, but has mostly failed to live up to expectations since then.
As the supposed number one receiver on an elite Eagles offense you
would think the 5th round would actually be a good value but I don’t
see it that way for several reasons.
First, there are injury concerns, as he is still recovering from
rotator cuff surgery and has yet to fully practice in training camp.
While it is possible he returns to full health by Week 1, we are
getting awfully close to the season and there are whispers he could
be put on PUP. Even if Jeffery heals quickly it is likely he will
need to be eased into action the first few weeks after missing so
much time.
Besides health, Jeffery is coming off a very disappointing season
that was only “saved” by the 9 touchdowns he caught.
Even though Jeffery had 120 targets he only caught 57 balls for
less than 800 yards, amassing the worst catch percentage of his
career and the second lowest YPR. While the touchdowns are obviously
nice, they are often fluky and Jeffery, despite his size, has never
been a big touchdown guy, totaling double digit scores just once
in his six-year career.
With Nelson
Agholor and Zach
Ertz being possession options and the team relying on its running
backs for a big chunk of their offense, the Eagles “number one receiver”
is not really used as a traditional number one guy. Based on his
usage, his decline in production, and his injury risk Jeffery should
be drafted as more of a mid-range WR3, but is being taken as a mid-range
WR2. That’s too high in my opinion and he simply hasn’t put up the
numbers to justify that kind of draft capital. I wouldn’t touch
Jeffery before the mid-6th and I prefer quite a few guys in the
4th and 5th including Golden
Tate, Allen
Robinson, Jarvis
Landry, Dion
Lewis, and even Corey
Davis.
A lot of people were surprised when Seattle took Penny in the first
round of the NFL draft but with that kind of draft capital, Penny
has climbed ADP lists this summer and has settled in to being taken
as a low-end RB2. While there is certainly some upside, Penny is
being taken several rounds too early based on several factors.
First, as most people have been reading, Penny is not currently
at the top of the Seahawks depth chart, Chris Carson is. While many
are dismissing this as simply motivating the rookie, the word from
Seahawks camp is clear that Carson has been the better back consistently
through the preseason. While it would not be a surprise to eventually
see Penny become the starter, Carson has showed enough to earn a
role tand if both players are healthy they will both get work. Besides
Carson the Seahawks also have C.J. Prosise who has flashed previously,
especially as a receiving threat making the Seattle backfield a
dreaded RBBC.
Second, the Seahawks have one of the worst offensive lines in the
league and an offense that might be forced to throw even more now
that their once powerful defense has become a shell of its former
self.
Finally, one of Penny’s biggest weaknesses coming out of college
was pass blocking and with golden boy Russell Wilson behind center
all it may take is a missed block or two to get the rookie benched.
While I tend to like Penny’s long term prospects the fact that he
put up gaudy college numbers and was drafted in the first round
have people overly excited about a guy who has yet to show anything
at the NFL level. I could see a scenario where his rookie season
is more of a redshirt year despite the capital the team spent on
him. As a later round flier I see why Penny would be drafted but
as the 26th or so RB off the board you are banking on a lot of scenarios
going perfectly in Seattle and that’s unlikely. At the range he’s
being taken I’d prefer Marshawn
Lynch, Dion
Lewis, and even fellow rookie Kerryon
Johnson, who as at least shown some positives in training camp.
I really like Engram as a prospect and think he has a bright fantasy
future but is being over-drafted based on unrealistic expectations
set by last year’s surprising production. My personal draft
strategy for tight ends this year is to grab Gronk, Kelce, or Ertz
if they fall to a reasonable range in the first four rounds, or
to simply wait till the last 4-5 rounds where there is plenty of
value with George Kittle, Tyler Eifert, and Jack Doyle, to name
a few. Engram is in “no man’s land” in terms of
his ADP, as he will likely have about the same production as the
guys I just mentioned. While Engram may have a slightly higher floor
than some of the late-round tight ends, I think the ceilings are
similar making Engram overvalued in the 6th round.
Detractors will point to Engram’s season last year and argue
that the 6th round is a bargain for a player that had a 64/722/6
line as a rookie but Engram also dropped a team-high six passes
and only caught 56% of balls thrown his way. Add that to the fact
that he did a lot of his damage with no OBJ, and/or no Sterling
Shepard, and no running back of consequence, and you really had
a perfect storm for Engram’s production.
This season both OBJ and Shepard are healthy and the Giants drafted
legend-in-the-making Saquan Barkley so it is conceivable that Engram
will go from first or second in targets, to third or fourth this
coming season. There will certainly be games where Engram looks
like a fantasy stud, but it is hard to picture a scenario where
he will put up consistent numbers unless more injuries to the offense.
In the 6th/7th rounds there are still solid starter players at RB/WR
and that is where I prefer to go: Marquise
Goodwin, Corey
Davis, Jamaal
Williams, and Michael
Crabtree.
