Wow. Did you see how deep owners had to dig this past weekend to
find replacements for all their players on bye? Some of those of
those starting lineups looked pretty scary. Nevertheless, the 26
teams on the field produced a lot of fantasy football excitement.
Here’s your recap courtesy of the Buzz!
Did you give up on Mark Ingram? One week
after getting benched he racked up 171 yards and 2 TDs.
A Week Can Make All the Difference
One week ago today, we were talking about the rise of Derek
Carr and the demise of Mark
Ingram. In the most glaring example possible, one week later
we’re flip-flopping after Carr went without a TD pass on Sunday
night and Ingram ran wild (171 total yards, 2 TDs) vs. the 49ers
on Sunday afternoon. One week, Carr is winning you your fantasy
game while Ingram tanks your chances and the next, the exact opposite
happens. How can this be explained? Well, it’s all about matchups…and
maybe in Ingram’s case, an extra dose of motivation. Carr is still
a terrific young QB and a terrific fantasy QB. It just so happens
that all of Oakland’s drives inside the 10-yard line on took them
to the one-yard line…which is where Latavius
Murray cashed in. Carr will be fine and in reality, had a good
game on Sunday. But, fantasy numbers can be fluky based on factors
that have little to do with who’s good and who’s not. Bottom line:
Don’t bench Carr simply because the Raiders found they could run
the ball vs. Denver. Likewise, don’t overreact to Ingram’s big day.
It came against the league’s worst run defense and Tim
Hightower still got 23 carries. On the flip side, we’ve seen
running backs get on track in a big way after being benched for
fumbles before. Tiki Barber is the most obvious example from a decade
ago. Final thought: If you think fantasy football is maddening at
times…you’re right.
Melvin’s Magic Afternoon
I’m starting to run out of ideas for why Melvin Gordon isn’t
an elite fantasy football running back. At the first of the year,
it was his troubling YPC. The last two games, he’s averaged
nearly six yards with every tote. Then, it was his fumbles. He’s
now touched the ball 118 times the last four games with nary a fumble.
On Sunday afternoon, he brought many a team back from the brink
courtesy of 261 total yards and a touchdown. It’s hard to
believe Gordon was viewed as a bust in 2015, but it has allowed
his owners to cash in big this year as he was purchased in most
cases at a discount. And, to say that Gordon has a favorable schedule
down the stretch would be an understatement. Of the next six defenses
he faces, five are in the bottom ten of the league in stopping the
run…and four are in the bottom five. Gordon is taking on a
massive workload, but like Miami/Jay Ajayi, it’s working in
terms of getting his team victories. Look for Melvin magic as we
head towards the fantasy postseason.
Speaking of Magic, Who Made Marvin Jones
Disappear?
Maybe that game vs. the Packers will go down as the ultimate outlier
after all. After lighting up the Packers defense for 200-plus yards,
Jones has now averaged only 42 yards a game in his last six outings
and has been held out of the end zone in each of the last three.
Matthew Stafford has apparently re-discovered who Golden Tate is
and Eric Ebron’s return to the lineup has resulted in 18 targets
over the past two weeks. I think Jones is the kind of player who
could have one more “ourburst” game this season, but
at this point that only makes him worthy of WR3 status at best.
If you can only start 2 WRs, you might do better finding a more
consistent threat.
NFC South Shoot-Outs Becoming the Norm
I remember a Thursday night game two years ago in which the Falcons
scored 56 points vs. Tampa Bay. I remember it because it went against
every Thursday night trend that had been established at the time
(sluggish offense, low scoring). Then, Thursday night, it happened
again. Same two teams. Same type of offensive output. Except, it
happened on both sides of the ball. Mike Evans and Julio Jones both
found the end zone (Evans found it twice) and the two combined for
267 yards in the process. Matt Ryan continued his dynamic season
and Jameis Winston even came along for the ride with 3 TD passes
of his own. So, here’s the latest trend: Games involving at
least three of the four NFC South teams are fantasy gold mines.
The four teams in the division have now accounted for 931 points.
Only the AFC West joins them with more than 800 points scored and
that has a lot to do with the fact that three AFC West teams have
yet to have their bye week. Not to be overlooked is the fact that
NFC South teams have allowed even more points than they’ve
scored at 935. No other division comes close. Conclusion: This is
the division you need to hitch your wagon to come playoff time.
They play in warm or dome climates. They can’t be stopped
and they can’t stop anyone else.
Dak…And Jason? (The Sequel to
Dak & Dez)
This story belongs in the “sometimes, fantasy football makes writers
look stupid” category. Last week, we said the Dak
Prescott and Dez
Bryant combo appeared to be on verge of making up for lost time.
Then, Dak throws to Jason
Witten 10 times and he gains 134 yards (and scores a TD) while
Bryant makes one catch for 19. It’s what good QBs do. They exploit
what the defense gives them and Cleveland apparently made stopping
Bryant their only priority. Dez will rebound, but two things are
true moving forward: Dallas would rather run the ball than pass
it…and Dak, while capable of big things with Bryant, will not force-feed
him the ball. Bryant owners will have to cross their fingers that
Pittsburgh focuses on stopping the run next weekend.
The Emerging Michael Thomas
If I were to ask you which Saints WR is in the lead with respect
to double-digit scoring fantasy games this season, who would you
say that WR is? How about which Saints WR is most targeted? And,
which has scored the most TDs? The answer in all three categories
(TDs are actually a tie) would be rookie Michael
Thomas. Thomas is making his mark on a team in which there is
room for several dynamic offensive weapons. He’s on pace for double-digit
TDs and nearly 1,200 yards at present. As young as he and Brandin
Cooks are, they’re going to be very relevant fantasy-wise for
as long as Drew
Brees decides to keep playing. In terms of keeper/dynasty potential,
we here at the Buzz are starting to think Thomas is the better long-term
prospect as Cooks can disappear at times. Ezekiel
Elliott is easily the biggest impact rookie in fantasy football
this season but Thomas is the next best thing.
Sometimes, Non-Flashy Picks Make All the Difference
Nobody was thinking in August about building their teams around
veterans like Frank Gore and Mike Wallace. But, those two players
have reminded us this year and in Week 9 in particular how valuable
the solid, talented veteran can be. Both rank in the top ten in
points per game at their respective positions and both continue
to get better at the season wears on. Gore really has no one to
challenge him for carries in Indianapolis, and Wallace is actually
better with Steve Smith back as it forces defenses to try to account
for more than just him. In terms of who impacted fantasy championships
most when all is said and done this season, Gore and Wallace won’t
be part of many, if any, discussions. But, their role as reliable,
consistent scorers is more valuable than most will realize. They’re
on pace for 2,722 combined total yards and 22 TDs. Those kind of
contributors don’t just grow on trees.
Jay Ajayi is for Real as the Transition
Continues
This is Ajayi’s second mention in this article. The Dolphins
are winning. And why? Because they are committed to trying to run
the football. When something works, smart NFL teams stick with it
and it’s why Ajayi is now considered an elite RB in terms
of production from this point forward. The flip side of Ajayi’s
emergence is fewer balls to go around in the passing game. DeVante
Parker hasn’t gotten on track in 2016, but in the games in
which Ajayi has been featured, Jarvis Landry’s targets have
dropped from 46 (first four games) to 26 (last four) and receptions
have decreased over that span from 31 to 18. In a year in which
the RB has been re-discovered in the NFL and in fantasy football,
Ajayi is one of the poster boys to be sure.
It’s Gonna Happen for Gurley…Right?
A good friend of mine felt great in August about his first two picks
in our redraft league. First, he selected Rams RB Todd
Gurley and then followed that up with Le'Veon
Bell in the second round as Bell's early season suspension led
to a mild drop in his value. Today, my friend's season is essentially
over as he sits at 1-8. We're still waiting on Bell's breakout game
after another TD-less, low yardage performance in Week 9. Likewise,
you got more fantasy points if you started Jalen
Richard on Sunday than if you started Gurley (or Bell for that
matter). At some point, you have to think that Bell is going have
an Ajayi-like performance (did I really just say that?). And, you
have to think that the Rams will see that Gurley needs to carry
the ball more than 12 times in a game. In the meantime, my only
hope for you is that your fate, much like my friend, is not already
sealed due to having one or both of these guys in your starting
lineup. Sometimes, can't miss becomes can't get on track.
Monday Night Musings
Our last thoughts of the night will come from the Monday night game
between the Seahawks and Bills. First, the Jimmy
Graham you saw last night was the Jimmy Graham from days gone
by. Graham (8-103 -2) has finally found his standing in the Seattle
offense after struggling most of last year prior to his season-ending
injury. Second, Tyrod
Taylor is doing more with less. Just think what he could be
with a healthy Sammy
Watkins. He remains a very intriguing dynasty prospect. And
finally, Christine
Michael owners need to be worried. Seattle abandoned the run
and Thomas
Rawls could be back as early as Week 11. He's not someone to
be counted on long term.
That's a wrap on the Buzz for Week 9! Hope you thrived in spite
of all the players who took the week off. Until next Tuesday morning...
