The second week of the 2023 preseason has mostly come and gone (BAL
@ WAS tonight) and there continue to be fantasy relevant nuggets
of information coming out of these games. Some players are seeing
their first NFL game action ever and some veterans are working their
way back from serious, season-altering injuries in 2022. Let’s
see what Week 2 of the preseason gave us to chew on…
1. All Systems Go for Javonte
The Broncos began their first drive by giving four consecutive
touches to Javonte Williams. Yes, the same Javonte Williams who
many expected to spend the preseason on the PUP list and even
miss regular season games following a complex knee injury in early
October. The fact that Williams looks ready to go is helping his
fantasy value rise as the second weekend in September approaches.
While it’s true that Samaje Perine is going to get his share
of touches in Sean Payton’s offense, Williams projects as
the better of the two backs and may be a bargain at his current
ADP of RB27. Add in the fact that Russell Wilson hasn’t
looked sharp this preseason, and it’s easy to see the Broncos
leaning on the running game to begin the year. Payton’s
teams have been ground happy in the past with guys like Deuce
McAllister, Pierre Thomas, and Mark Ingram all carving out valuable
fantasy roles. Even with Perine in the fold, it’s time to
start looking for Javonte early in Round 5 in redrafts as a low-end
RB2.
2. Rashee Rice Pushing for Playing Time
Kadarius Toney
is hurt (again). Skyy
Moore wasn’t much more than a solid return man on special
teams last season. And, Mecole
Hardman and JuJu
Smith-Schuster don’t play for Kansas City anymore. All of
that is to say that the WR roles for the Chiefs are up in the
air. Rookie Rashee Rice had another solid pre-season outing with
8 catches for 96 yards on 9 targets against the Cardinals. That’s
11 catches now in two games for 126 yards. With teams always having
to account for Travis
Kelce, Kansas City wide receivers are always going to see
coverage that few teams rarely see. While there may not be room
for a top 10-15 WR in KC’s offense, there is plenty of room for
someone to emerge as a weekly fantasy starter. After all, Tyreek
Hill and Travis Kelce coexisted for years in the same universe.
Now, no one is saying Rashee
Rice is the next Hill. But, if you aren’t picking him up in
the later rounds of your redraft leagues, you could be missing
out on one of this year’s top offensive rookies. Stay tuned.
3. Seattle’s New Weapsons
Most insiders believed that Seattle would use the draft this
year to improve its defense given their offense was one of 2022’s
biggest surprises. Guess again. Seattle instead chose to draft
the top overall wide receiver on the board in the form of Jaxon
Smith-Njigba and then followed that up with the selection
of Zach Charbonnet
in Round 2. On Saturday, both Smith-Njigba and Charbonnet saw
game action and did little curb enthusiasm for them individually
and for Seattle’s offense as a whole. Smith-Njigba caught all
3 of his targets for 58 yards including a 48-yard reception in
which he turned the Dallas secondary around with his route running
skills and speed. As for Charbonnet, he touched the ball just
4 times, but turned one of those touches into a 29-yard gain.
It’s hard to know how much either will be utilized in September,
but I do look for both to see increased touches as the season
goes on.
4. Purdy Good for a Preseason Debut
Much like Javonte Williams, many people believed that Brock Purdy
had little chance of beginning the 2023 NFL year in the starting
lineup come Week 1. Not only does he have a chance to do so, but
it is almost a lock at this point in time. Purdy began San Francisco’s
game vs. Denver by completing 4 darts in 5 attempts for 65 yards
including two strikes to Deebo Samuel. Purdy’s stock has
been rising for a couple of weeks and is considered to be a solid
QB2 in the same vein as a Derek Carr or Matthew Stafford. The
fact that Purdy has better weapons at his disposal only underscores
his upside. Yes, San Francisco is so good defensively that game
script may not require Purdy to extend beyond the parameters of
solid game management and conservative attack strategy. But it’s
become clear that he’s the guy the 49ers believe has the
best chance to get them back to the Super Bowl.
5. Soft Run Defenses from 2022 Still Look Soft
I am well aware that first team defenses don’t play entire
preseason games. In fact, they often don’t even play much
beyond the first quarter. But, there’s still something to
be said for getting shredded by another team on the ground, preseason
or otherwise. This week, three NFL defenses gave up nearly 650
yards on the ground combined. Those teams were the Houston Texans,
Minnesota Vikings, and Detroit Lions. The Lions and Vikings gave
up the most fantasy points of any NFL defenses in 2022 and Houston
was the worst defense, fantasy-wise vs. the running game for the
season. And, aside from the Texans getting a new, defensive-minded
coach, don’t look for any of the three defenses to reverse
their trend anytime soon with so much of their team money tied
up in the offensive side of the ball. That bodes well for RBs
like Aaron Jones and Khalil Herbert who will face the NFC North
foes four times this year. As you draft take note of players facing
the Vikings, Lions, and Texans as improvement on the defensive
side of the ball for these teams isn’t in the cards.
6. Are We Targeting the Wrong Green Bay WR?
Hear me out. Christian
Watson had an outstanding rookie season and is one of the
more explosive young receivers in the game today based on what
we observed the second half of last season. But Jordan
Love appears to have chemistry going with Romeo
Doubs that is hard to ignore. This weekend saw the two hook
up for 2 catches and 52 yards in the first quarter alone. That
was a follow up to last week in which Love found Doubs for a first
quarter touchdown. Love is not likely to throw the “home run”
ball the way Aaron
Rodgers did, opting instead for shorter, safer routes. That
could lead to Doubs being a more consistent producer, fantasy-wise,
than Watson particularly in PPR situations. Looking at numbers
from the previous year and assuming they’ll be duplicated is often
times a fallacy in fantasy football. I still like Watson and I
have him on a couple of fantasy teams already, but I’m warming
up to the idea that Doubs is being undervalued. Perhaps massively
undervalued. Grab him late in redrafts if you can.
7. Best Laid Plans in Pittsburgh May Need Revision
The prognosis for the Steelers offensive this season was a lot
of ball control via the run and a conservative passing game that
limits turnovers. After all, Pittsburgh is still breaking in Kenny
Pickett and have a workhorse RB in Najee
Harris to keep the chains moving. What the Steelers may be
starting to figure out is that they have something every team
needs - speed. We took some time last week to point out the exploits
of WR Calvin
Austin and this week, we couldn’t help but notice Jaylen
Warren’s 62-yard scamper to the end zone on his only touch
of the game. Warren looked superior to Harris last season but
was used sparingly because of his body frame and perceived lack
of durability. A word now, from Captain Obvious. It’s going to
be hard to keep Warren (and Austin for that matter) off the field.
They are the syrup on a fairly vanilla scoop of ice cream and
Pittsburgh had better be finding ways to get both the ball. As
for drafting, Austin remains a late round flier, but Warren could
be a borderline RB1 if Harris were to get hurt. If you wait too
late to draft him, he’ll be long gone as his stock continues to
rise.
8. Are We Excited About the Giants Passing Offense?
Since Odell Beckham Jr. left, there hasn’t been a lot to
get excited about in the Giants wide receiver room. Sterling Shepard
has seemingly been in New York for a decade now and is mostly
a tease as a weekly starter. Daniel Jones only became fantasy
relevant last year based on his rushing prowess as no receiver
cracked 750 yards. But, this offseason, the Giants made two moves
that aren’t getting enough attention in fantasy circles.
One was the acquisition of TE Darren Waller and the other was
drafting WR Jalin Hyatt. In this weekend’s game vs. the
Panthers, both were targeted 9 times combined and Hyatt scored
a TD on a throw from backup quarterback Tyrod Taylor. Daniel Jones’
rushing numbers from late last season likely aren’t sustainable
in 2023, but they may not have to be given the upgrades in the
receiving room. The only thing curbing enthusiasm is they have
to face the Cowboys, Eagles, and Commanders’ defenses six
times this year.
9. Drumbeat Growing Louder for Kincaid
Stock is rising for Dalton
Kincaid and rightfully so. Kincaid took in 3 passes for 45
yards on Saturday and while two of them were courtesy of backup
QB Matt Barkley,
Kincaid’s ability to operate in space was on full display. For
several years, the Bills have tried to make slot receiver one
of the primary targets, but in 2023, I don’t think it’s going
to be a priority. Instead, Kincaid is poised to become that third
branch of the tree, if not the second if Gabriel
Davis doesn’t take a step forward. Kincaid is currently being
drafted primarily as an upside TE2, but I think he may be headed
for TE1 numbers by the middle of October. If you believe in waiting
a bit on the selection of your first TE, Kincaid would be a great
target and definitely is ideal as a high-end TE2. Buffalo has
been looking for someone to work the middle of the field. In the
form of Kincaid, it appears that help has finally arrived.
10. A Couple of Vintage Preseason Performances for the Road…
And, finally, a couple of guys to keep in the back of your mind
as the season begins. The two biggest performances of this past
weekend, came courtesy of WR Austin Watkins for Cleveland (7-139-1)
and Ronnie Bell for San Francisco (7-114). Watkins is a third-year
player while Bell is a rookie out of Michigan. The path to targets
during the regular season will be hard to locate for either player,
but both showed something in Week 2 of the preseason and their
continued success or lack thereof bears watching.
That’s a wrap on Week 2 of the preseason. One more glance
next week and we’ll be ready for the real thing.