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Mike Krueger | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


DFS Lineup Review - Week 9
11/5/18


Week 9 saw concentrated ownership on the Rams/Saints, Chiefs/Browns and Buccaneers/Panthers games. Getting the right mix of players from those games and prioritizing the high priced running backs not name Todd Gurley while avoiding paying up for Adam Thielen were the keys to building winning lineups.

Here’s a look at my cash game Lineup for Fanduel in Week 9.

Quarterback

My quarterback pool was small this week, with Cam Newton ($8600), Jared Goff ($8400), Drew Brees ($8400) and Ryan Fitzpatrick ($7100) under consideration given their positive game environments. I typically like to pay down at QB in an effort to afford higher priced running backs so I started the week with Fitzpatrick in my lineup and never really budged. I did want to get up to Goff who I had ranked above Brees and below Newton, but the $1300 savings on Fitz was significant. The Bucs pass-friendly approach along with Carolina ranking in the top ten in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks was enough to persuade me from jamming in Goff. I expected the road for Fitzpatrick might be a bit bumpy in this game but I didn’t think he was in danger of getting benched if he threw a couple picks in the first half. I’m of the opinion that Tampa will move on from Jameis Winston at season’s end making it less likely that he sees the field for the rest of the season.

Running Back

With Todd Gurley ($11200) maintaining his 11K price tag from last week and three running backs in great matchups priced $3000 less, it didn’t make much sense to pay up for Gurley in cash games. Kareem Hunt ($8500), Alvin Kamara ($8000) and Christian McCaffrey ($7900) all had high projections and I knew I wanted at least two of these guys in my lineup. I had Adrian Peterson ($7500) as my No.7 ranked RB on the week and I also liked Nick Chubb ($6600) in the mid-range in a game that I thought might be a little closer than people think, keeping the Browns running game in play into the fourth quarter. Phillip Lindsay ($6700) and Latavius Murray ($6700) were also on my radar but I felt Lindsay’s matchup wasn’t as good as Week 8 when he faced the forgiving Chiefs defense and the various reports of Dalvin Cook’s usage turned me off of Murray.

Hunt was a lock for me given Cleveland’s weakness against the RB position and with the Falcons playing away from the comforts of home, I thought this game set up well for Peterson to get 20-plus carries plus a couple of catches with an above average likelihood of a touchdown. Even with the Redskins depleted at the wide receiver position it certainly didn’t expect a Falcons blowout… ooops.

Wide Receiver

I never really got comfortable at the wide receiver position this week. Any good plays in the high range like Adam Thielen ($8900), Michael Thomas ($8600) and Julio Jones ($8500) weren’t going to be an option for me given my preferred lineup construction that included a high-priced tight end. I knew Courtland Sutton ($5500) would be popular (55% owned) given his perceived role increase with Demaryius Thomas shipped off to Houston, but didn’t think Sutton was such a great play that he needed to be locked into my lineup even at an affordable price. I actually had Kenny Golladay ($6200), Cooper Kupp ($6800) and D.J. Moore ($5300) all ranked above Sutton but would’ve had no problem playing Sutton over Moore had their prices been reversed.

I figured Golladay would see an extra couple targets with Golden Tate out of the picture and he’s seemingly been on the wrong side of variance with just 3 total targets in his previous two games. The Vikings were also banged up in the secondary with Xavier Rhodes hobbled by a foot injury.

The only thing I really liked at receiver position in my price range was the Rams receivers. I preferred Brandin Cooks ($7500) but was more than fine with Kupp who fit salary-wise. He was going to assume his normal slot role with solid usage in the redzone in the best game environment of the day.

I needed a cheap-o option for this roster and I really only considered Moore and Tre’Quan Smith ($5100). I had similar projections for both but felt Moore’s matchup was slightly better given how awful the Bucs are against the wide receiver position. As a hedge, I played Smith in my main GPP lineup.

Tight End

I rarely make the tight end position a priority but I really liked Kelce this week, more so than other weeks and while I did like O.J. Howard ($6000), David Njoku ($5200) and Kyle Rudolph ($5700) - once Stefon Diggs was ruled out, Kelce stuck out like a sore thumb and honestly became a lock for me early in the week. I envisioned the Chiefs focusing on a Hunt-Kelce gameplan with Tyreek Hill coming in a little nicked up and drawing the most difficult matchup against Denzel Ward. Ward got knocked out early with a hip injury but Kelce still finished as the top pass catcher for the Chiefs.

Flex

I had Kamara and Hunt ranked above McCaffrey and wasn’t going to move off them. I did want to find the $400 to get off Peterson but that would meant moving off Kelce at tight end which I really didn’t want to do. Kamara was a lock this week, given his role in the offense and the matchup against the Rams. Playing Kamara in a dome with a 57 point total was too juicy to pass up. Kamara continues to get looks around the goaline even with Mark Ingram back in the mix and is the preferred option in the passing game with Ingram seeing only 2-3 catches per week since his Week 5 return.

Defense

I had quite a few defenses on my list this week including the Bears ($5400), Dolphins ($4200), Redskins ($3400), Broncos ($3400) and Bills ($3000). This lineup was zeroed out and I wasn’t comfortable going below the Bills in price. I was somewhat surprised to see them highly owned, roughly 28% in cash games with Denver also being extremely popular at 42% owned.

Results

I got away with a dud from Peterson thanks to Kelce coming through with a two-touchdown game at 10 percent ownership. I was comfortable using Kelce given I didn’t really like a lot of the options at the wide receiver above his price and paying down at wide receiver was going to my preferred lineup construction. I thought I might be in trouble, given Golladay’s poor outing but with ownership hovering in the mid-30 percent it wasn’t a huge drain on my lineup. Things might have looked a lot different if Hunt or Kamara failed, as McCaffrey smashed his salary at 58 percent ownership but as it turned out all three running backs have great games giving me a nice cushion in double-ups and 50-50s.

On to Week 10…