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Doug Orth | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer

Consistency Rankings Analysis
Preseason Matchup Analysis
7/8/14

A d v e r t i s e m e n t

Even the most novice fantasy owners know who the elite players at every position are. Why? Because anyone can usually look at the fantasy-point total from the previous season and figure it out. After all, big year-end totals don’t just come from a series of small numbers…right?

Fantasy football is a game about numbers at its very core, but it is so much more than that. Championships are not necessarily won because a certain player has bigger numbers at the end of the year than everyone else. Instead, fantasy titles are more often won by those owners who get good-to-great performances consistently. Just as importantly, how often is an owner’s core players outperforming their peers at their position? Last but not least, when are those players delivering their biggest performances?

There is nothing wrong with reviewing last year’s final numbers and making some determinations for the upcoming season based on that. It is just an incomplete means to an end and one that can get monotonous if the numbers don’t provide some kind of perspective. As we all know, not all fantasy-point totals are created equal: few players have or ever will go on the four-game run Le’Veon Bell enjoyed from Weeks 11-15 last season. Odell Beckham Jr. did more in 12 games as a rookie than most receivers will ever do in a year. But were either of them the most consistently dominant player in fantasy football?

To answer that question, I have chosen to utilize a system that places a value on a player’s rank – relative to his position he plays – from that given week. Although I will provide some observations below, the goal is to let the numbers – or the rankings, as it were – do the talking. Much like Red Zone Report, my hope is that as the years pass, we will begin to see some trends emerge and draw some solid conclusions based on that.

For those readers that remember last season’s Consistency Rankings Analysis, I have eliminated the player’s scoring average and value – the standard deviation concept I use for my Big Boards. (Sorry folks, there is only so much information that can fit on a page.) I have replaced them with the following designations that serve as the basis for my scoring system:

- For quarterbacks and tight ends: “top 1” indicates that a player was the top scorer of the week at his position and “elite” refers to when a player finishes among the top five players of his position. “Clear starter” (CS) is someone who is ranked inside the top 12 (a QB1/TE1 in other words), while any mention of “backup range” refers to when a player lands outside the top 24 (a QB3/TE3 in other words).

- For running backs and receivers: “top 1” indicates that a player was the top scorer of the week at his position and “elite” refers to when a player finishes among the top 10 players of his position. “Clear starter” is someone who is ranked inside the top 24 (a RB2/WR2 in other words), while “backup range” refers to when a player lands outside the top 36 (a RB4/WR4 in other words).

Below are the other column headers:
OR – Overall rank
PR – Position rank (based on total number of fantasy points at the end of last season)
SRS – "Simple Ratings System" (explained above); essentially a consistency score that assigns varying point values based on weekly rank and position.

Notes: Any weekly rank that appears in a red box was a negative point total for that week. All rankings/concepts based on a 12-team league PPR league where rushing and receiving touchdowns are worth six points, passing scores are worth four points and owners must start one QB, two RBs, two WRs and one TE. Players had to participate in at least eight games to qualify.

 Consistency: Simple Rating System
OR PR Player Tm 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Total FPts/G Value SRS
1 RB1 Jamaal Charles KCC 9 5 1 6 5 3 7 9 18 bye 28 1 11 4 1 4 378 25.2 10.37 104
2 QB1 Peyton Manning DEN 1 10 3 2 2 16 4 5 bye 2 17 17 1 3 15 1 486 32.4 9.05 91
3 TE1 Jimmy Graham NOS 11 1 1 3 3 41 bye 1 1 8 20 2 10 3 28 3 285 19.0 6.98 91
4 QB2 Drew Brees NOS 9 21 1 1 9 11 bye 1 11 1 20 7 28 4 13 12 390 26.0 4.53 74
5 RB2 LeSean McCoy PHI 4 6 4 25 7 12 14 25 15 11 2 bye 16 1 18 1 310 20.7 7.17 68
6 WR1 Calvin Johnson DET 58 4 6 24 89 60 1 1 bye 6 1 15 6 52 23 52 303 20.2 5.09 65
7 RB3 Matt Forte CHI 8 4 6 6 11 12 1 bye 4 31 5 12 15 3 21 29 301 20.1 6.74 63
8 RB4 Knowshon Moreno DEN 27 3 48 12 3 1 15 1 bye 7 33 2 12 6 25 19 279 18.6 5.70 63
9 TE2 Tony Gonzalez ATL 15 21 25 1 4 bye 27 17 4 17 13 20 8 15 5 1 207 13.8 3.30 48
10 RB7 Adrian Peterson MIN 1 30 5 4 bye 24 30 8 5 6 38 6 6 59 73 44 233 15.5 3.54 47
11 RB5 Marshawn Lynch SEA 33 1 38 8 21 2 13 44 13 3 3 bye 34 23 7 28 258 17.2 4.71 44
12 WR5 Demaryius Thomas DEN 4 44 16 2 38 33 12 10 bye 1 16 25 25 10 53 5 290 19.3 4.48 43
13 WR2 Josh Gordon CLE 99 104 2 35 14 11 76 6 44 bye 6 1 3 2 27 11 299 19.9 4.90 41
14 RB6 DeMarco Murray DAL 7 25 2 17 20 21 78 67 22 12 bye 16 1 15 5 3 246 16.4 4.15 41
15 WR10 Eric Decker DEN 73 20 3 25 19 37 3 39 bye 38 32 84 1 6 63 1 267 17.8 3.39 40
16 TE5 Vernon Davis SFO 3 25 45 16 5 1 12 4 bye 39 11 10 4 17 3 43 200 13.3 2.97 40
17 TE3 Julius Thomas DEN 2 8 6 20 1 9 5 16 bye 2 11 43 46 9 20 2 207 13.8 3.30 39
18 QB4 Philip Rivers SDC 4 3 25 3 11 19 14 bye 12 15 19 1 23 10 18 21 327 21.8 1.56 37
19 WR3 A.J. Green CIN 2 46 26 32 36 6 5 20 10 4 75 bye 13 15 14 4 291 19.4 4.53 36
20 QB6 Cam Newton CAR 26 12 2 bye 26 1 17 3 14 27 2 10 3 19 20 18 323 21.5 1.37 36
21 WR4 Antonio Brown PIT 41 38 1 10 bye 15 39 15 15 19 2 12 33 8 16 14 291 19.4 4.53 35
22 RB15 Pierre Thomas NOS 24 32 23 29 1 31 bye 16 17 1 19 8 44 44 19 43 204 13.6 2.17 35
23 WR12 DeSean Jackson PHI 15 2 53 62 6 5 72 23 7 16 31 bye 65 28 1 47 264 17.6 3.25 33
24 RB8 Eddie Lacy GBP 19 66 80 bye 24 17 5 5 9 24 21 3 46 12 3 6 226 15.1 3.21 33
25 WR8 Dez Bryant DAL 69 5 28 7 3 46 10 9 30 59 bye 17 14 47 4 13 269 17.9 3.49 31
26 WR9 Andre Johnson HOU 7 22 56 13 50 19 29 bye 1 12 9 57 12 3 66 32 269 17.9 3.49 31
27 QB8 Andrew Luck IND 8 13 21 10 12 25 1 bye 5 14 12 18 27 2 16 11 321 21.4 1.27 31
28 RB10 Chris Johnson TEN 35 28 29 40 9 35 6 bye 2 25 8 21 7 27 16 24 217 14.5 2.78 30
29 QB11 Alex Smith KCC 16 7 22 4 25 25 16 10 25 bye 6 4 6 18 1 27 300 20.0 0.28 30
30 QB12 Nick Foles PHI 34 34 35 27 13 2 29 28 1 4 9 bye 4 16 2 6 294 19.6 0.00 30
31 TE7 Charles Clay MIA 18 3 17 8 8 bye 18 11 23 16 3 24 7 1 46 16 180 12.0 2.03 29
32 WR11 Pierre Garcon WAS 33 6 23 19 bye 27 42 31 9 8 28 28 28 49 6 3 266 17.7 3.35 28
33 QB10 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 28 23 12 16 bye 15 20 18 4 19 1 11 12 7 27 5 306 20.4 0.57 28
34 WR7 Alshon Jeffery CHI 51 79 34 6 1 62 19 bye 17 11 17 45 2 16 15 24 275 18.3 3.77 27
35 RB12 Giovani Bernard CIN 46 7 9 21 35 8 22 44 6 5 22 bye 40 11 22 35 211 14.1 2.50 26
36 RB11 Fred Jackson BUF 14 15 14 15 4 32 10 15 23 30 40 bye 4 38 29 8 213 14.2 2.59 24
37 RB9 Reggie Bush DET 2 29 80 3 23 4 17 2 bye 15 43 19 3 78 16 51 222 14.8 3.02 23
38 QB3 Andy Dalton CIN 21 15 17 30 24 4 2 2 24 11 14 bye 26 6 12 2 331 22.1 1.74 23
39 TE15 Rob Gronkowski NEP 44 40 45 43 37 41 2 19 2 bye 5 1 1 29 48 43 122 8.1 0.71 23
40 RB14 Joique Bell DET 3 26 3 37 27 51 26 16 bye 43 10 54 8 9 47 2 207 13.8 2.31 22
41 TE4 Jordan Cameron CLE 5 9 2 4 24 10 3 6 37 bye 21 26 19 2 26 43 202 13.5 3.06 21
42 QB5 Matthew Stafford DET 9 11 8 14 17 3 3 6 bye 8 5 9 8 31 28 25 323 21.5 1.37 21
43 QB7 Tony Romo DAL 19 19 7 9 1 23 20 7 10 22 bye 14 21 14 14 9 323 21.5 1.37 21
44 QB15 Colin Kaepernick SFO 3 31 32 15 20 12 12 4 bye 28 15 3 15 23 11 4 279 18.6 0.71 21
45 TE11 Delanie Walker TEN 25 19 10 14 21 19 8 bye 30 4 1 16 42 45 2 13 147 9.8 0.47 21
46 RB19 Zac Stacy STL 71 73 80 78 30 28 9 13 1 13 bye 12 36 29 8 12 176 11.7 0.85 20
47 WR6 Brandon Marshall CHI 12 12 49 20 29 3 27 bye 11 3 46 3 51 18 11 24 286 19.1 4.29 19
48 WR17 Anquan Boldin SFO 1 102 37 13 64 57 31 33 bye 61 15 4 16 27 60 9 215 14.3 0.94 19
49 RB13 Danny Woodhead SDC 48 17 18 5 8 18 11 bye 12 14 41 5 48 10 48 27 210 14.0 2.45 18
50 QB17 Robert Griffin III WAS 12 5 26 17 bye 21 5 23 21 3 4 27 13 24 35 34 245 16.3 2.31 17
51 TE6 Jason Witten DAL 4 29 8 17 2 22 16 25 3 20 bye 3 19 26 7 29 181 12.1 2.07 17
52 WR13 Jordy Nelson GBP 9 15 19 bye 28 10 22 3 35 26 11 37 83 34 17 51 238 15.9 2.03 17
53 RB17 Frank Gore SFO 16 47 25 10 12 30 3 6 bye 20 35 38 28 30 36 11 190 12.7 1.51 16
54 WR25 Marques Colston NOS 20 42 34 22 71 81 bye 57 89 9 29 48 63 1 9 30 187 12.5 0.38 16
55 WR16 Larry Fitzgerald ARI 5 76 39 17 49 7 79 19 bye 61 14 8 18 4 40 68 219 14.6 1.13 14
56 QB9 Russell Wilson SEA 23 26 5 22 6 17 8 11 7 6 9 bye 2 27 21 19 310 20.7 0.75 14
57 WR18 Wes Welker DEN 10 33 9 4 22 14 17 13 bye 63 20 53 62 20 97 98 209 13.9 0.66 14
58 TE8 Greg Olsen CAR 17 4 11 bye 11 26 17 7 5 29 7 11 9 14 10 13 174 11.6 1.74 13
59 RB22 Darren Sproles NOS 11 26 30 1 34 18 bye 39 57 2 36 75 27 35 20 49 169 11.3 0.52 13
60 WR19 Keenan Allen SDC 99 75 104 31 8 4 45 bye 6 39 50 10 20 12 18 38 206 13.7 0.52 13
61 WR14 Vincent Jackson TBB 16 35 68 67 bye 2 2 27 66 55 3 47 36 24 19 20 235 15.7 1.89 12
62 RB18 Maurice Jones-Drew JAX 43 50 17 46 25 15 30 7 bye 9 18 4 17 19 73 21 177 11.8 0.90 12
63 QB13 Tom Brady NEP 22 25 14 7 29 17 28 22 2 bye 20 2 10 9 10 14 291 19.4 0.14 12
64 WR15 Julian Edelman NEP 6 16 39 17 55 35 47 67 78 bye 60 2 14 13 3 21 234 15.6 1.84 11
65 TE10 Martellus Bennett CHI 12 2 34 7 13 7 18 bye 18 14 22 6 30 19 14 5 166 11.1 1.37 10
66 WR28 Mike Wallace MIA 88 9 85 62 20 bye 26 41 22 58 48 6 8 79 8 49 186 12.4 0.42 10
67 WR24 Victor Cruz NYG 3 17 73 1 42 33 44 18 bye 46 12 74 23 47 76 98 195 13.0 0.00 10
68 TE20 Tim Wright TBB 44 40 45 43 bye 5 31 3 6 25 40 8 29 17 1 18 114 7.6 1.08 9
69 TE13 Jared Cook STL 1 35 11 19 27 21 21 14 8 27 bye 4 23 27 44 24 132 8.8 0.24 9
70 QB24 Aaron Rodgers GBP 5 1 22 bye 16 14 6 8 28 33 35 31 32 37 35 34 182 12.1 5.28 8
71 RB16 Ryan Mathews SDC 17 37 46 16 63 29 12 bye 48 17 11 18 22 7 12 7 193 12.9 1.65 8
72 TE9 Antonio Gates SDC 26 6 4 2 7 20 15 bye 12 9 8 29 24 21 31 16 171 11.4 1.60 8
73 TE19 Jordan Reed WAS 21 15 9 43 bye 13 1 2 13 3 41 43 46 45 48 43 115 7.7 1.04 8
74 QB14 Matt Ryan ATL 13 6 15 5 10 bye 7 19 23 17 13 23 16 21 28 7 279 18.6 0.71 8
75 RB31 Steven Jackson ATL 10 35 80 78 69 bye 78 38 26 41 30 10 9 36 10 18 134 8.9 1.13 7
76 WR20 Kendall Wright TEN 84 18 31 38 27 30 11 bye 39 21 17 9 24 82 5 58 204 13.6 0.42 7
77 WR26 Harry Douglas ATL 35 51 156 34 77 bye 4 7 33 31 5 21 26 77 51 38 187 12.5 0.38 7
78 RB20 Rashad Jennings OAK 73 43 58 9 44 54 bye 65 3 18 6 14 14 78 5 25 171 11.4 0.61 6
79 QB22 Ryan Fitzpatrick TEN 34 34 35 24 7 29 31 bye 30 5 16 5 18 30 3 20 191 12.7 4.86 5
80 QB20 Geno Smith NYJ 24 32 6 23 3 30 10 25 20 bye 55 30 59 12 23 3 199 13.3 4.48 5
81 WR62 Julio Jones ATL 19 1 10 21 17 bye 98 84 89 86 97 87 105 99 97 98 110 7.3 4.01 5
82 WR21 Torrey Smith BAL 36 24 27 3 16 79 49 bye 24 20 24 42 7 76 40 37 199 13.3 0.19 5
83 RB24 Andre Ellington ARI 56 19 34 31 19 10 43 2 bye 28 56 24 80 19 12 30 158 10.5 0.00 5
84 QB18 Carson Palmer ARI 18 24 33 21 27 12 24 12 bye 13 3 6 11 20 23 27 239 15.9 2.59 4
85 RB21 Alfred Morris WAS 21 20 20 35 bye 16 24 11 13 16 27 34 21 58 39 15 170 11.3 0.57 4
86 RB25 DeAngelo Williams CAR 20 33 23 bye 28 14 34 19 32 23 47 31 80 41 4 16 153 10.2 0.24 3
87 WR29 Riley Cooper PHI 82 42 80 71 89 8 23 77 2 7 55 bye 57 36 49 23 176 11.7 0.90 2
88 QB16 Ryan Tannehill MIA 25 17 16 20 15 bye 13 17 17 10 18 13 9 8 6 32 276 18.4 0.85 2
89 WR27 Michael Floyd ARI 42 78 55 27 36 20 28 30 bye 63 4 18 9 66 69 34 186 12.4 0.42 2
90 TE12 Coby Fleener IND 39 7 33 5 32 24 7 bye 11 10 4 8 22 25 48 32 137 9.1 0.00 2
91 QB27 Josh McCown CHI 34 34 35 33 34 31 15 bye 8 26 23 7 7 1 35 33 162 10.8 6.22 1
92 RB23 Ray Rice BAL 6 40 80 59 2 37 20 bye 36 21 4 45 24 18 40 37 164 10.9 0.28 1
93 WR22 Brian Hartline MIA 8 37 24 57 40 bye 29 42 48 29 33 28 4 23 38 52 196 13.1 0.05 0
94 QB23 Jay Cutler CHI 17 9 24 13 5 6 56 bye 30 18 35 31 32 37 8 10 188 12.5 5.00 -2
95 QB21 Eli Manning NYG 2 27 31 25 14 24 22 21 bye 23 22 15 25 26 60 13 197 13.1 4.57 -2
96 WR41 James Jones GBP 99 8 30 bye 10 86 98 84 72 37 50 24 33 62 31 12 147 9.8 2.26 -2
97 WR35 Cecil Shorts JAX 63 21 8 29 15 106 20 21 bye 50 65 23 17 45 97 98 162 10.8 1.56 -2
98 WR32 Greg Jennings MIN 67 30 63 9 bye 39 53 73 32 65 97 60 10 42 2 55 163 10.9 1.51 -2
99 TE14 Garrett Graham HOU 14 14 45 6 31 27 23 bye 14 22 2 21 25 4 48 43 131 8.7 0.28 -2
100 QB19 Joe Flacco BAL 14 20 28 18 21 7 18 bye 9 20 26 20 19 10 30 16 238 15.9 2.64 -3
101 WR44 Terrance Williams DAL 73 74 106 32 5 35 9 21 56 33 bye 80 84 63 52 28 141 9.4 2.55 -3
102 RB30 Donald Brown IND 75 53 63 27 22 43 24 bye 42 10 7 72 20 43 55 5 137 9.1 0.99 -3
103 WR23 T.Y. Hilton IND 75 18 89 44 2 41 74 bye 3 13 41 44 42 86 23 33 195 13.0 0.00 -3
104 QB29 Sam Bradford STL 11 4 20 26 4 8 23 28 30 33 bye 31 32 37 35 34 147 9.8 6.93 -4
105 WR36 Golden Tate SEA 52 91 21 67 21 49 35 5 54 10 71 bye 51 34 76 63 160 10.7 1.65 -4
106 WR31 Marvin Jones CIN 84 66 32 97 52 12 21 2 36 79 81 bye 85 30 23 19 172 11.5 1.08 -4
107 WR49 Jarrett Boykin GBP 99 104 106 bye 89 61 6 24 74 14 21 20 105 70 29 15 132 8.8 2.97 -5
108 RB40 Arian Foster HOU 13 9 45 2 10 7 63 bye 63 65 73 75 80 78 73 70 109 7.3 2.31 -5
109 WR38 Rod Streater OAK 37 59 64 75 25 50 bye 36 20 83 10 32 48 5 44 96 158 10.5 1.74 -5
110 TE18 Heath Miller PIT 44 40 24 11 bye 6 18 18 16 36 9 17 6 24 24 24 118 7.9 0.90 -5
111 TE17 Scott Chandler BUF 23 31 3 26 20 8 29 4 26 19 26 bye 19 33 15 22 120 8.0 0.80 -5
112 RB26 Ben Tate HOU 30 21 37 48 45 22 32 bye 29 27 13 26 2 40 23 70 145 9.7 0.61 -5
113 WR34 Nate Washington TEN 56 53 11 5 57 75 48 bye 89 54 52 40 28 69 21 6 162 10.8 1.56 -6
114 RB29 Rashard Mendenhall ARI 32 10 51 43 15 45 28 67 bye 43 24 17 40 34 9 37 138 9.2 0.94 -6
115 WR30 Emmanuel Sanders PIT 40 34 61 46 bye 18 94 8 18 40 92 19 21 25 50 45 176 11.7 0.90 -6
116 RB42 Bobby Rainey TBB 75 73 61 41 bye 77 78 67 63 19 1 46 32 8 53 31 106 7.1 2.45 -7
117 TE16 Brandon Myers NYG 8 10 26 43 28 41 31 13 bye 41 24 12 5 12 25 9 120 8.0 0.80 -7
118 RB27 Jacquizz Rodgers ATL 69 33 26 14 6 bye 2 41 31 22 49 33 56 39 37 45 141 9.4 0.80 -7
119 WR50 Marlon Brown BAL 25 29 94 28 89 38 62 bye 8 78 97 86 92 9 61 44 131 8.7 3.02 -8
120 RB32 Trent Richardson IND 26 23 31 20 38 40 55 bye 33 33 26 36 66 21 11 33 133 8.9 1.18 -8
121 RB28 C.J. Spiller BUF 29 12 65 33 17 33 41 67 16 34 54 bye 5 46 38 17 138 9.2 0.94 -8
122 WR45 Hakeem Nicks NYG 26 36 106 58 9 32 73 29 bye 34 45 87 69 17 90 43 139 9.3 2.64 -9
123 WR43 Brandon LaFell CAR 99 76 13 bye 46 9 59 53 24 35 13 57 32 73 45 84 143 9.5 2.45 -9
124 QB25 Mike Glennon TBB 34 34 35 28 bye 9 11 13 15 23 11 12 30 29 21 29 177 11.8 5.52 -10
125 WR53 Roddy White ATL 80 80 88 60 47 bye 98 84 89 69 34 62 5 26 43 2 127 8.5 3.21 -10
126 TE24 Zach Miller SEA 24 29 5 38 37 41 6 26 17 41 18 bye 3 41 44 12 97 6.5 1.89 -10
127 WR39 Jerricho Cotchery PIT 33 50 59 11 bye 106 53 47 4 27 27 87 49 19 94 87 155 10.3 1.89 -10
128 RB34 Shane Vereen NEP 5 73 80 78 69 77 78 67 63 bye 14 9 13 2 50 39 121 8.1 1.74 -10
129 RB33 Bilal Powell NYJ 21 16 11 18 37 36 67 31 49 bye 52 27 33 52 31 20 129 8.6 1.37 -10
130 TE21 Jermaine Gresham CIN 22 12 30 20 25 34 11 8 24 41 19 bye 46 8 36 7 110 7.3 1.27 -10
131 RB48 Andre Brown NYG 75 73 80 78 69 77 78 67 bye 8 23 6 10 32 42 46 94 6.3 3.02 -11
132 WR42 Eddie Royal SDC 22 3 77 54 69 105 16 bye 19 56 68 31 105 70 58 41 144 9.6 2.40 -11
133 WR37 Doug Baldwin SEA 26 69 46 55 29 45 89 71 13 24 23 bye 19 59 12 89 158 10.5 1.74 -11
134 QB36 Jake Locker TEN 31 14 3 6 34 31 9 bye 22 53 35 31 32 37 35 34 116 7.7 8.39 -12
135 QB31 Jason Campbell CLE 34 33 35 33 34 31 31 9 6 bye 27 29 32 5 25 23 127 8.5 7.87 -12
136 WR54 Cordarrelle Patterson MIN 93 85 66 85 bye 78 67 58 64 30 58 27 38 6 22 17 127 8.5 3.21 -12
137 WR52 Danny Amendola NEP 18 104 106 97 44 81 98 59 12 bye 35 61 37 32 10 57 128 8.5 3.16 -12
138 RB47 Darren McFadden OAK 12 8 19 53 69 24 bye 4 51 65 73 75 71 78 73 36 95 6.3 2.97 -12
139 WR47 Denarius Moore OAK 28 104 7 38 13 13 bye 55 27 42 43 87 105 99 62 69 135 9.0 2.83 -12
140 WR46 Rueben Randle NYG 30 82 70 86 4 16 41 84 bye 22 30 42 71 65 97 48 136 9.1 2.78 -12
141 WR40 Dwayne Bowe KCC 63 22 103 23 48 50 37 77 23 bye 19 22 49 21 68 38 154 10.3 1.93 -12
142 QB38 Brandon Weeden CLE 28 29 35 33 18 10 25 28 30 bye 35 24 5 37 35 34 108 7.2 8.77 -13
143 QB37 Michael Vick PHI 7 2 18 19 19 31 31 47 30 33 35 bye 32 37 35 34 110 7.3 8.67 -13
144 QB35 Matt Cassel MIN 34 34 35 12 bye 22 31 28 30 30 30 31 24 13 5 31 118 7.9 8.30 -13
145 QB32 Case Keenum HOU 34 34 35 33 34 31 19 bye 3 7 25 28 20 28 31 34 122 8.1 8.11 -13
146 QB28 EJ Manuel BUF 20 16 10 29 28 31 31 28 30 21 8 bye 14 34 9 34 156 10.4 6.51 -13
147 QB26 Chad Henne JAX 33 18 29 33 22 27 26 16 bye 29 24 26 17 17 17 8 170 11.3 5.85 -13
148 WR60 Aaron Dobson NEP 99 28 33 84 50 28 60 16 5 bye 49 87 105 99 97 80 111 7.4 3.96 -13
149 RB35 Stevan Ridley NEP 50 47 50 26 69 6 16 13 7 bye 29 113 80 57 56 46 119 7.9 1.84 -13
150 WR66 Kenbrell Thompkins NEP 57 63 17 8 60 24 81 84 89 bye 47 34 90 99 97 98 103 6.9 4.34 -14
151 TE37 John Carlson MIN 44 74 42 40 bye 31 40 38 25 1 16 25 18 36 48 43 70 4.7 3.16 -14
152 WR51 Steve Johnson BUF 37 10 22 95 68 106 32 11 40 40 97 bye 51 38 92 98 131 8.7 3.02 -14
153 QB30 Terrelle Pryor OAK 15 28 13 33 7 20 bye 14 16 25 35 31 32 36 34 34 135 9.0 7.50 -15
154 WR63 Jeremy Kerley NYJ 59 104 82 40 18 69 7 52 86 bye 97 87 105 31 80 27 105 7.0 4.24 -15
155 QB51 Brandon Bolden NEP 75 73 13 55 18 49 19 23 47 bye 73 20 57 78 73 53 81 5.4 3.63 -15
156 RB36 Mike Tolbert CAR 67 39 35 bye 40 11 23 10 21 42 63 44 25 51 33 56 117 7.8 1.93 -15
157 WR33 Steve Smith CAR 24 44 65 bye 40 25 13 39 43 25 37 33 55 21 72 63 163 10.9 1.51 -15
158 QB34 Christian Ponder MIN 30 21 10 33 bye 31 31 15 13 12 32 21 31 37 35 34 121 8.1 8.16 -16
159 WR59 Kenny Stills NOS 44 99 106 53 89 20 bye 4 49 17 78 64 102 73 48 73 112 7.5 3.91 -16
160 WR55 Tavon Austin STL 46 13 52 80 55 100 58 65 88 5 bye 16 59 55 97 98 125 8.3 3.30 -16
161 TE35 Jermichael Finley GBP 9 5 45 bye 19 11 4 40 39 41 48 43 46 45 48 43 73 4.9 3.02 -16
162 RB39 Chris Ogbonnaya CLE 59 43 32 13 54 9 59 34 29 bye 16 42 49 45 31 60 112 7.5 2.17 -16
163 RB38 BenJarvus Green-Ellis CIN 24 31 38 65 16 33 50 51 34 48 39 bye 19 16 71 23 113 7.5 2.12 -16
164 TE27 Brandon Pettigrew DET 43 22 45 12 15 16 14 14 bye 7 23 13 40 37 31 43 93 6.2 2.07 -16
165 QB40 Kellen Clemens STL 34 34 35 33 34 31 57 24 18 9 bye 22 22 32 19 30 93 6.2 9.48 -17
166 QB33 Matt Schaub HOU 6 8 30 11 32 28 31 bye 30 33 31 31 32 25 35 22 121 8.1 8.16 -17
167 TE31 Joseph Fauria DET 16 40 20 43 37 3 38 40 bye 23 39 22 46 45 21 9 78 5.2 2.78 -17
168 RB43 Chris Ivory NYJ 64 41 75 78 51 61 20 59 10 bye 12 46 35 22 42 21 102 6.8 2.64 -17
169 WR57 Robert Woods BUF 55 31 73 16 34 74 67 77 44 86 97 bye 67 64 13 35 117 7.8 3.68 -18
170 WR56 Jerome Simpson MIN 17 61 71 15 bye 54 62 66 62 36 93 49 35 29 85 89 121 8.1 3.49 -18
171 TE26 Tyler Eifert CIN 19 17 38 24 14 30 9 21 27 11 38 bye 36 31 11 40 96 6.4 1.93 -18
172 TE23 Mychal Rivera OAK 32 22 31 12 34 32 bye 40 18 21 6 34 28 10 13 20 98 6.5 1.84 -18
173 WR64 Reggie Wayne IND 14 47 42 12 26 23 43 bye 89 86 97 87 105 99 97 98 104 6.9 4.29 -19
174 WR58 Ted Ginn Jr. CAR 93 26 20 bye 33 69 67 26 80 67 40 66 31 87 92 42 114 7.6 3.82 -19
175 RB46 Montee Ball DEN 54 45 53 54 68 62 78 29 bye 55 9 30 23 14 29 55 96 6.4 2.92 -19
176 RB48 DeAndre Hopkins HOU 43 11 36 67 63 58 17 bye 44 23 84 82 41 40 55 89 135 9.0 2.83 -19
177 RB41 Marcel Reece OAK 61 36 16 66 29 77 bye 62 43 38 48 15 60 5 28 42 108 7.2 2.36 -19
178 TE29 Dallas Clark BAL 10 37 15 25 37 4 13 bye 33 13 30 27 37 45 48 43 82 5.5 2.59 -20
179 RB37 Lamar Miller MIA 59 14 36 18 58 bye 37 12 19 50 41 25 31 50 41 67 115 7.7 2.03 -20
180 TE22 Brent Celek PHI 13 40 32 18 9 37 40 23 9 34 29 bye 12 32 35 6 100 6.7 1.74 -20
181 WR67 Ace Sanders JAX 78 39 82 42 89 87 98 72 bye 86 25 36 22 36 45 60 102 6.8 4.38 -21
182 TE40 Ladarius Green SDC 44 40 23 43 37 29 25 bye 35 23 15 5 13 45 48 43 63 4.2 3.49 -21
183 RB45 Daniel Thomas MIA 28 42 27 62 47 bye 35 18 40 110 20 52 80 13 35 63 98 6.5 2.83 -21
184 TE30 Kyle Rudolph MIN 31 11 19 33 bye 2 26 9 10 41 48 43 46 45 48 43 79 5.3 2.73 -21
185 TE28 Jeff Cumberland NYJ 44 40 27 14 6 12 22 34 39 bye 17 35 40 45 9 23 86 5.7 2.40 -21
186 WR61 Donnie Avery KCC 52 71 11 73 31 104 61 48 58 bye 73 14 78 95 69 58 110 7.3 4.01 -22
187 TE25 Zach Ertz PHI 37 20 40 26 26 25 34 37 7 41 30 bye 2 45 6 28 97 6.5 1.89 -22
188 QB39 Matt McGloin OAK 34 34 35 33 34 31 bye 28 26 33 7 19 29 15 26 26 95 6.3 9.38 -23
189 WR69 Tiquan Underwood DET 92 104 84 50 32 17 49 34 bye 42 53 57 40 99 90 76 97 6.5 4.62 -23
190 WR68 Dexter McCluster KCC 62 84 105 44 89 76 38 11 74 bye 36 28 43 60 97 85 99 6.6 4.53 -23
191 RB54 Doug Martin TBB 18 17 22 28 bye 20 36 67 63 65 73 75 80 78 73 70 68 4.5 4.24 -23
192 TE34 Marcedes Lewis JAX 44 40 45 43 37 41 28 59 bye 14 28 33 15 13 8 4 73 4.9 3.02 -23
193 TE32 Robert Housler ARI 44 40 36 31 37 17 10 31 bye 5 14 17 27 28 48 43 78 5.2 2.78 -23
194 TE38 Andrew Quarless GBP 44 40 28 bye 37 41 46 28 15 32 33 30 39 5 4 30 68 4.5 3.25 -24
195 WR65 Mohamed Sanu CIN 80 48 45 65 58 39 91 64 31 56 38 bye 96 66 72 21 103 6.9 4.34 -25
196 RB44 Roy Helu WAS 50 63 42 11 bye 23 4 47 45 37 32 40 38 75 65 59 101 6.7 2.69 -25
197 RB50 James Starks GBP 62 2 48 bye 69 77 78 20 27 54 118 41 78 64 34 39 82 5.5 3.58 -26
198 RB49 LeGarrette Blount NEP 64 64 42 23 48 68 71 37 25 bye 46 114 29 37 46 9 90 6.0 3.21 -26
199 TE36 Lance Kendricks STL 29 28 15 22 9 17 36 21 28 41 bye 43 46 39 18 41 71 4.7 3.11 -26
200 WR70 Greg Little CLE 65 58 80 97 39 43 51 74 14 bye 90 68 46 89 42 95 97 6.5 4.62 -27

With that behemoth of a chart out of the way, let’s begin this new journey with a question: which player was the better option for fantasy owners in 2013? Let me quickly establish some ground rules for the upcoming comparison:

- For quarterbacks and tight ends: “elite group” refers to when a player finishes among the top five players of his position in a given week. “Clear starter” is someone who is ranked inside the top 12 (a QB1/TE1 in other words), while “backup range” refers to when a player lands outside the top 24 (a QB3/TE3 in other words).

- For running backs and receivers: “elite group” refers to when a player finishes among the top 10 players of his position in a given week. “Clear starter” is someone who is ranked inside the top 24 (a RB2/WR2) in other words), while “backup range” refers to when a player lands outside the top 36 (a RB4/WR4 in other words).

Player A: finished at the top of his position three times, in the “elite group” 12 times, in the “clear starter” range 14 times and never in “backup range”.

Player B: finished at the top of his position three times, in the “elite group” 10 times, in the “clear starter” range 11 times and never in “backup range”.

Player C: finished at the top of his position four times, in the “elite group” nine times, in the “clear starter” range 12 times and twice in “backup range”.

Using strictly this comparison, Player A has a slight but clear advantage over Player B. But is Player B the preferred choice over Player C? It is not an easy question to answer because it is easy to argue that getting one extra best-at-his-position finish is just as favorable as two “backup range” tallies are unfavorable. The mere suggestion that Manning – after rewriting the record books last season – isn’t Player A and also not the clear answer to the question, “Who was the best (and most consistent) player in fantasy last season?” seems almost asinine.

Before I answer the question as to the identities of the players above, let’s first consider the absurdity of the notion that Manning, who outscored his next-closest competitor at any position by 96 points over the course of 16 weeks and averaged 32.4 FPts/G, wasn’t the best player in fantasy last season by rationalizing why it could be the case:

1) Quarterback has become a very deep position in recent years. Last year saw 11 signal-callers score at least 300 fantasy points in this scoring system, which is a pertinent point because position scarcity plays a larger role in draft value than most people want to realize. When supply for top-level talent begins to match up pretty evenly with demand (12 starting quarterbacks in 12-team leagues), the relative value of the top player at his position goes down. The same case can be made at receiver.

2) The running back position possesses only a few true undeniable studs, which makes those select few backs more valuable than ever and allows them to dominate their position in fantasy easier. Allow me to explain: if we assume that roughly 25 of the 32 NFL teams use some sort of committee approach in their backfield, then doesn’t it stand to reason the seven teams that do not probably have backs capable of leaving the fantasy field in the dust thanks to sheer volume?

3) Despite the influx of a number of incredibly-talented tight ends in recent years, there is only one truly dominant player at the position. If Jimmy Graham was lumped in with the receivers last year, he would have finished seventh – one point behind Brandon Marshall. The next two tight ends (Tony Gonzalez and Julius Thomas, both of whom scored 207 points) would have ranked 19th among receivers – one point ahead of Keenan Allen. Further consider that Graham nearly outscored Gonzalez and Thomas (at a weaker-scoring position) by about the same margin that Manning did Drew Brees (at a higher-scoring position) and it becomes easier to understand why Graham might have been at least as valuable as Manning last season.

OK, fine. Perhaps none of the above observations qualify as breaking news. Be that as it may, it doesn’t discount the fact that each one is important when it comes to evaluating fantasy players. At this time, let’s also remove the curtain on the players in the opening example: Player A was Jamaal Charles, Player B was Manning and Player C was Graham.

Let’s not diminish Manning’s historic season. Some may get caught up in the fact that he only ended up as the best player at his position in three weeks, but I might argue that 10 “elite” finishes is more impressive than anything else he did in fantasy last year. This means that in two-thirds of the games he played in last season, Manning was among the top half of fantasy quarterbacks available. Even more impressively, Manning was a top-three quarterback eight times!

While the “value” I place on each player each August is a helpful tool to use above, it falls just a bit short in this particular analysis because it can’t account for games in which a player was injured or suspended. One obvious example is Julio Jones, who was injured in Week 5 and did not play another game thereafter. Using the “value” and positional rank concepts, he would finish with a negative value and as the No. 62 overall receiver. But as any Jones’ owner from last season will recall, he led his position in fantasy points before his injury. Additionally, most owners parted ways with Jones as soon as he was placed on injured reserve, so he was not occupying a roster space anyway. Another fine example is Rob Gronkowski, who was clearly an elite option when he played in 2013. His “value” is negative simply because his fantasy points per game (FPts/G) above were heavily impacted by all of the time he missed.

Now is a good time to acknowledge that many of these players missed time at some point last season, be it due to injury, suspension or a benching. Due mostly to practicality reasons, I chose not to earmark those weeks because in just about every case, owners kept those players on the roster. Thus, I reasoned if they occupy a spot on someone’s roster, then their contribution – or lack thereof – should still be factored into their rank for that week. It is one of several areas I will consider in more detail as time goes by.

At any rate, I felt it was important to come up with a concept that took those areas into proper consideration while still rewarding the players that delivered quality performances and giving a special nod to those few players who posted great or even elite rankings consistently. The “Simple Rating System” (SRS) gives varying points to players who: 1) ranked first in their position group in a given week, 2) ended the week in the “elite” group and 3) finished the week as a “clear starter”. The players that wound up in the “backup range” were assigned a negative total for that week, which also varies from position to position. The final tally for each player is essentially a consistency score.

However, I am not introducing the SRS as a means to “protect” injured or suspended players, but also reward healthy players that consistently deliver great or elite production each week. At the very least, this method should be able to identify the fantasy MVP from the previous season while also giving owners some idea as to what players were consistent, what players were great and what players were consistently great. The regular readers of this column know I don’t believe that analyzing surefire first-round picks is the ticket to a championship season, so allow me to share some other insights before we begin our month-long journey of projecting each game for every team – two divisions per week – in something I like to call Preseason Matchup Analysis.

Let’s be clear about one thing before we wrap this piece up and look at some individual situations a bit closer: the above chart does not suggest that Alfred Morris, Andre Ellington or Aaron Rodgers should be avoided inside the first five rounds any more than it suggests that Pierre Thomas or Alex Smith should go inside the top 60. However, I think it lays the groundwork for what actually happened last season and provides more perspective than looking through weekly or year-end totals. While there will be obvious kinks in this rating system I will need to work out over the next few years, I do like the fact that it punished players that were “clear starters” like Cameron, Coby Fleener, Matthew Stafford, Andy Dalton, Julian Edelman and many others that were clearly inconsistent. Dalton (third in overall QB scoring) and Stafford (fifth) were among the highest-scoring quarterbacks available in fantasy, yet I don’t know a single owner that would have ranked them that high at the end of last season. In this analysis, they come in at ninth and 10th, respectively.

Although there isn’t much we can take away from it long-term, I was stunned to see just how many of the elite players at their positions failed to deliver in the usual fantasy playoff weeks (14-16). Calvin Johnson, Marshawn Lynch, Philip Rivers, Giovani Bernard, Reggie Bush, Jordan Cameron, DeSean Jackson, Andre Johnson and Morris were just several of the players that turned in multiple duds when owners needed them the most.

Eddie Lacy may not have led his position in fantasy points in any single week last season, but there is no arguing how consistent he was – especially after Rodgers’ collarbone injury. Six “elite” and 12 “clear starter” finishes may not earn a player a fantasy MVP award, but those are the type of performances that enable fantasy teams to win each week, advance in the playoffs and help a team remain consistent in what is otherwise a very inconsistent hobby.

The mention of the name Pierre Thomas probably does not excite the masses, but the SRS was most definitely a fan of him. As a Thomas owner in my most important league last season, I have no problem supporting the notion that he was every bit as important to my team’s success as just about every player listed below him was to his/her team’s success. His two top-place finishes in Weeks 5 and 10 undoubtedly boosted his final ranking, but so did his career-high 77 catches.

One surprising low result was the 12th-place SRS position finish of Brandon Marshall, who managed to place sixth among receivers in overall scoring last season…but was it unfair? If my analysis stretched out a bit to include the top-12 receivers instead of just the top 10, he would have undoubtedly been higher. However, it is difficult to suggest that Marshall, who is being billed as a WR1 lock again this season, is deserving of that title when he secured only three top-10 finishes in 2013. A.J. Green looks low, but actually finished fifth at his position in this analysis. Like Marshall, he spent too much time performing as a fantasy WR2 to be considered any higher.

There’s no doubt that Eric Decker’s two top-of-his position finishes over the final four weeks of the season boosted his final ranking about 30 spots higher than it otherwise would have been. Perhaps one of the necessary changes to this system going forward is to penalize “backup range” weeks more heavily. I think most of us would acknowledge that since quarterback and wide receiver are deeper positions than running back and tight ends, it is theoretically more difficult to crack into the “elite” and “clear starter” categories and easier to fall into “backup range” at those spots.

Suggestions, comments, about the article or fantasy football in general? E-mail me or follow me on Twitter.

Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and has been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He has hosted USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday over the past two seasons and appears as a guest analyst before and during the season on Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive” as well as 106.7 The Fan (WJFK – Washington, D.C). Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.


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