This is my fourth and final installment of quarterly projections.
Hopefully, the first three installments have helped you reach a
point to where you can relax over the next week or two.
Because I take on all 32 teams and there is a lot to cover, I’m
going to get right to it this week.
Here’s a quick refresher of what each of the colors mean
in each team’s projection chart below:
Red – A very difficult matchup.
For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be
used in fantasy that week. For a second- or third-tier player,
drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e.
from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one
level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like a
RB2).
Yellow – Keep expectations
fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow
matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier
player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall
right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average
production.
White – Basically, this is
a neutral matchup. In some cases, I just don’t feel like
I have a good feel yet for the defense. Generally speaking, these
matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.
Green – It doesn’t
get much better than this. For non-elite players, the stage is
basically set for said player to exploit the matchup. For the
elite player, this matchup should produce special numbers.
One final note: The gray highlight in each team’s
schedule reflects a road game and the numbers above them correspond
to the weeks of the season. The age you see by each player will
be that player’s age as of September 1, 2015.
Key to the table below:
PPR - Total points scored in PPR Non - Total points scored in non-PPR.
What to watch for: One note before
I discuss the offense: the Texans are a prime example of a defense
that decided to put some of its personal agendas to the side and
play as a team around midseason. As much as we assume that will
happen with all 32 team after a few weeks, Houston is a reminder
that it takes longer for some teams than others (and Miami is an
example of a team that won’t do it at all). Hopkins is the
clear star on this offense and should be a good bet for WR1 numbers
in three of the remaining four games, but most of you already knew
that. The emergence of the defense has enabled the Texans to stick
with the running game more than most of owners could have imagined
when Arian Foster was lost for the season; the result has been Blue
getting enough work to be a decent flex option. As long as Houston
continues to play the kind of dominant defense it has recently,
I’m inclined to believe that none of its remaining opponents
will be successful enough to keep Blue from being a serviceable
flex play. Shorts has started to emerge as a decent WR3 option,
but his upside is certainly capped by Washington’s presence
(and vice versa). I’d be hesitant to use Hoyer the rest of
the way and doubt Griffin is on the verge of breaking out, although
he is the best fantasy tight end on the roster at the moment.
What to watch for: While the season-ending
injury to Ahmad Bradshaw wouldn’t seem to be a big deal for
this team, I think owners of Gore and Fleener can rejoice a bit.
Herron wasn’t re-signed to replace Bradshaw, so Gore’s
already-increasing workload should continue to rise while Fleener
may see some of the red-zone looks in the passing game the former
Giant benefited from recently. More touches is about the only thing
Gore has going in his favor, however, as little can be done to improve
one of the league’s worst offensive lines at this point. I
anticipate the Colts keeping Luck out for another four weeks, so
owners able to look past Hasselbeck’s age might be able to
ride his safe floor to a fantasy title. Hilton has emerged as Hasselbeck’s
favorite receiver just like he had for Luck, but his home-road splits
haven’t changed. Given that Hilton has been such a “perfect
field conditions” player for his entire NFL career, owners
can safely assume Hilton will consistently dominate at Lucas Oil
Stadium and Moncrief will be the team’s leading receiver on
the road more often than not.
What to watch for: Meet Allen Robinson:
another player who figures to be a DFS staple of mine going forward.
Hurns is hurting and seems likely to miss the next week or two,
allowing Robinson and Thomas to hog a number of the passing-game
targets. (Consider that 96 percent of the Jaguars’ offensive
touchdowns have been through the air.) As such, if the duo has been
successful in getting you to this point, I like their chances to
do so in December as well. OC Greg Olsen appears to be allergic
to using Yeldon near the goal line, which is obviously contributing
to that high passing-score percentage and the rookie’s low
touchdown totals. If Yeldon wasn’t going to get used heavily
in a plum matchup against San Diego last week, there’s little
reason to believe he’s going to find the end zone multiple
times in any of the final four weeks. The team’s pass-heavy
ways (and reliance on the big play) obviously bodes well for Bortles
down the stretch since he has one of the best downfield receivers
in the league at his disposal. He may not finish with multiple touchdowns
in every game, but I don’t think three of four is a stretch.
What to watch for: In this offense,
there’s Walker and everybody else. The 31-year-old tight end
has firmly established himself as Mariota’s top target and
Tennessee’s upcoming matchups suggest there is little reason
for that to change. The coaching staff seems to talk up Cobb’s
involvement in the offense every week, but has yet to deliver. I
expect that to change eventually and, when it does, Andrews will
lose what little appeal he had as a flex play. Moreover, the matchups
going forward are brutal after this week and the offensive philosophy
is too conservative to expect the talent on this roster to overcome
it. It’s possible that Mariota will use this opportunity to
run more often, but I’m not sure it’s going to make
much of a difference against defenses run by Todd Bowles, Matt Patricia/Bill
Belichick and Romeo Crennel during the fantasy playoffs.
What to watch for: Jones has only
scored two touchdowns since Week 3, which would be problematic for
most receivers. However, there are few wideouts that are better
bets for double-digit catches and 100-plus yards every week. One
of the two games Jones scored during his “dry spell”
was Week 8 versus Tampa Bay, so I expect him to find the end zone
this week and again in Week 15. Head-to-head matchups in Week 14
and 16 against Josh Norman are problematic, however, so he will
probably not be putting fantasy teams on his back in those two weeks.
Freeman has really slowed his early-season touchdown-scoring pace,
but his heavy use as a receiver out of the backfield pretty much
keeps his prospects of remaining an elite RB1 afloat. As a result,
he should be the most consistent Falcon in fantasy the rest of the
way. Tamme’s usefulness is typically tied into Hankerson’s
availability, so owners will be lucky to get two more fantasy-relevant
games out of either player combined. The few Ryan owners still in
the running for a fantasy title likely benched him a while ago and
two matchups against the Carolina defense this month aren’t
going to do him a lot of good in terms of increasing his draft stock
for next season.
What to watch for: I stopped just
short of predicting a touchdown in every remaining game for Olsen,
but I was tempted. The Falcons have allowed the sixth-most points
to opposing fantasy tight ends and they rank as the most difficult
matchup Olsen has over the final four weeks. The story on Stewart
hasn’t changed; he’s going to see about 20 carries per
game and will almost certainly get vultured by Newton or Tolbert.
While he’ll be a good bet for at least 80 total yards in every
game, it would be shocking to see Stewart score more than twice
the rest of the way. Funchess and Cotchery appear to be the wide
receivers of choice right now, but their appeal is of the low-end
WR3 variety in deeper PPR leagues. As most would expect from a potential
MVP candidate, Newton has been virtually matchup-proof all season
long. Atlanta’s Cover-3 base defense should limit Cam’s
deep throws and limit his runs to some degree, but all owners have
to do is look at what he did against a similar defense in Seattle
to dismiss whatever concerns they have about Atlanta’s ability
to be as stingy as it has against opposing fantasy quarterbacks
to this point.
What to watch for: The ebbs and flows
of the Saints’ season, especially offensively, lead me to
believe that HC Sean Payton will be coaching somewhere else next
season. The combined inability to utilize Spiller more often in
the passing game or Cooks in the same kind of way the Rams have
used Tavon Austin this year suggest that a number of people are
not on the same page in New Orleans. Be that as it may, Brees seems
like a pretty good bet to produce like the QB1 he usually is following
this week, which means owners of Cooks, Snead and Watson should
be in for a nice ride in December. Ingram’s slate is a bit
more difficult, although his catch totals have given him a safe
floor for most of the season. However, the Saints have failed to
deliver in two consecutive spots in which they would usually produce,
so it would not surprise me if they finish the season in a tailspin.
The offseason should be an interesting one in the Bayou.
What to watch for: Perhaps the most
remarkable thing about Martin’s bounce-back season is that
he has not scored since Week 5. I would expect that to change in
the next two games, but the lack of touchdowns and Sims’ involvement
in the passing game obviously cap his upside considerably. Evans
has caught just over half of his targets (36 of 70) since the team’s
Week 6 bye and only scored twice himself over that time, meaning
his 18.3-point PPR average during that stretch could be considerably
higher than it is. Seferian-Jenkins’ status seems to be a
mystery to everybody, which has allowed Brate to become an under-the-radar
play in recent weeks. If ASJ cannot make it back this season, Brate
could be a serviceable option for owners that lost Rob Gronkowski
and Jimmy Graham last week. With Evans hogging the targets and Winston
operating a conservative offense, Jackson is going to be difficult
to use the rest of the way. Winston may deliver a great fantasy
performance in one other game besides Week 14, but I’d hate
to bet on which one it might be.
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.
