The fantasy playoffs begin in earnest in most leagues this week.
Generally speaking, the players that have carried their teams to
the brink of a fantasy championship are the same ones owners must
(or will) trust to take them the rest of the way.
There’s something to be said for consistency and the peace
of mind that comes along with it, but I think it has been well-established
this year that the former is in very short supply at just about
every position. “Never bench your studs” or “don’t
get too cute” are novel concepts for owners in 10-team leagues
in which only half of the owners might be active, but those pieces
of advice are trickier for owners in deeper leagues that have
to strongly consider starting someone like Brian Hartline, who
I will discuss later because of the somewhat unusual situation
in which he finds himself this week.
I always tend to work under the assumption that most owners play
in highly competitive leagues of at least 12 teams. While roughly
75 percent of the players that have carried their fantasy teams
to the postseason have been on rosters since at least October,
it is reasonable to suggest that about a quarter of players have
forced their way into our fantasy lineups since then. Just because
the amount of owners vying for players in December drops as half
of the league or more is eliminated from contention, it doesn’t
stop the lesser-known players in the NFL from taking advantage
of their opportunity.
Below you will find a list of 28 players that I feel are capable
of carrying (or at least contributing greatly) to title runs this
fantasy postseason. Most of my selections will be based on the
remaining matchups and/or be proven commodities, although some
will require a “feel” since they have yet to truly
break out. Think of the names (sorted by position and placed in
alphabetical order) below as the ones I believe have the best
chance of appearing high on the end-of-season lists that feature
the ownership rates of players on fantasy championship teams.
Atlanta ranks as the second-most difficult defense for opposing
fantasy quarterbacks, so Newton’s challenge to dominate
the fantasy playoffs is a formidable one since he will see the
Falcons twice over the next three weeks. However, his status as
the team’s top goal-line option combined with the dominance
of Greg Olsen gives him a pretty safe floor. I don’t anticipate
a repeat of the two five-touchdown performances he’s managed
over his last three games, but it seems like the only thing that
can stop him from being a fantasy force is if his own defense
scores and doesn’t give him a chance to get into the red
zone.
Palmer has been pretty much matchup-proof all season (he was
the fantasy QB5 in Week 10 at Seattle and the overall QB3 in Week
11 versus Cincinnati, for example) and none of the remaining teams
on his schedule are of the caliber of the Seahawks or Bengals
in terms of their pass defense. The most difficult matchup should
have been the Vikings, but three key starters – one at each
level of their defense (NT Linval Joseph, SLB Anthony Barr and
FS Harrison Smith) – have already been ruled out this week.
Philadelphia has surrendered at least four touchdowns to opposing
quarterbacks in three straight weeks, giving Palmer potentially
two juicy matchups leading into a home game against Green Bay
in Week 16.
When the Lions made the transition from previous OC Joe Lombardi
to first-time play caller Jim Bob Cooter, they made protecting
Stafford a priority. (A novel concept, I know.) In the four games
under Cooter, Stafford has thrown for nine touchdowns versus one
interception. Assuming Detroit can bounce back from its shocking
Hail Mary loss to Green Bay last week, it is easy to see why so
many believed the Lions could have made a push for the playoffs
if they had just been able to beat the Packers. The Rams can’t
score anymore, the Saints are on a historically-bad pace defending
the pass and the 49ers are allowing an average of 32.7 points
in six road games. Further bolstering Stafford’s fantasy
stock is that Detroit running backs have only accounted for three
rushing touchdowns this season (Stafford has thrown for 23 and
ran for one himself).
Wilson has picked up the pace over the
last 3 weeks.
Forgive me if I’m a little bit upset with the Seahawks
regarding Wilson, who is seventh in scoring at his position and
playing as well as any quarterback in the league right now. I
ranked the fourth-year signal-caller at No. 3 before the start
of the season and suffice it to say that his regular presence
in the starting lineup of all three of my main money league teams
until Seattle’s Week 9 bye essentially sunk my playoff hopes
in those leagues. It took the Seahawks until after their week
to replace converted defensive lineman Drew Nowak with Patrick
Lewis at center, which has solidified the problematic offensive
line and helped set the stage for Wilson’s recent surge.
The upcoming schedule speaks for itself, with only the Rams, who
have consistently kept Wilson contained throughout his career,
serving as the only likely obstacle for the offensive machine
Seattle has become.
Peterson has been handcuffed a bit by his own offense’s
ineptitude over two of the last three games, but he is still as
good of a bet as any back to post 125-plus yards and two touchdowns
against any opponent. I expect a heavy workload in a less-than-favorable
matchup against the Cardinals in Week 14 and a similar amount
of touches in a pair of more favorable matchups (for Peterson
anyway) that Minnesota knows it needs to win.
Arizona’s remaining schedule is actually not very favorable
for running backs on paper, but the rookie is going to have a
great shot to leave an impression on HC Bruce Arians against the
injury-depleted Vikings defense. Assuming that happens, it doesn’t
take a great leap of faith to believe Johnson could nail down
the feature-back job for the rest of the regular season, leaving
Andre Ellington to serve as his change-of-pace back when he returns
from injury. Johnson possesses a ton of big-play ability, is an
adept receiver and benefits from one of the best passing games
in the league, meaning even the most stout run defense will have
trouble keeping him under wraps for a full 60 minutes.
Very little explanation needed here, despite a string of brutal
matchups. The Steelers can move the ball on any opponent and Williams
has been utilized heavily in the passing game of late, which has
contributed greatly to his ability to score at least 20 PPR fantasy
points in four of his six starts this season.
Second to only Peterson in the race for the rushing title, Martin
has consecutive highly-favorable matchups over the next two weeks
before wrapping up with a Bears’ run defense that coughed
up consecutive 100-yard games to Ronnie Hillman and Eddie Lacy
before making Shaun Draughn look a bit like a fantasy stud last
week.
Sometimes in fantasy, the perfect storm happens. White saw virtually
no time on the field during the first half of the season as Dion
Lewis emerged as a force in fantasy as well as reality. The utter
decimation of the Patriots’ offense (on the offensive line as
much as at receiver and tight end) as well as the continued woes
of Brandon
LaFell has essentially left Tom
Brady with Danny
Amendola and White as his only two reliable playmakers. New
England’s remaining schedule is quite unfavorable for running
backs, although that is actually a good thing for White since
it should mean more passing-down situations for him and fewer
early-down opportunities for LeGarrette
Blount. I fully expect another blowup game from Brandon
Bolden (just to mess with fantasy owners’ minds), but the
Wisconsin product could push for 8-10 catches per game for as
long as Rob
Gronkowski is out.
It says a lot about the running back position nowadays that Miller
is fifth in PPR scoring and has been severely underutilized in
about half of his games. He received 20 carries for only the second
time in his four-year career last week in a bad matchup against
Baltimore in the debut of new OC Zac Taylor and rushed for over
100 yards anyway, which bodes well for him going forward as he
faces three defenses that rank in the top 13 in terms of most
PPR
points allowed to opposing running backs. If Miami shows similar
commitment running the ball over the next three weeks, Miller
could end up being the highest-scoring running back during the
fantasy playoffs and make a strong argument for being a fantasy
first-rounder next year.
It seems hard to believe that McCoy was a virtual non-factor
during the first half of the season. He’s healthy now and
is one of the few backs left in the game today that owners can
count on to get his 20 touches and produce regardless of the matchup.
As luck would have it, his run during the fantasy playoffs will
be exclusively against NFC East opponents he either played for
(Philadelphia) or against (Washington and Dallas) twice a season
up until this year.
Congratulations if you beat the rest of the crowd on Rawls, who
has probably done enough this year to make it possible for the
Seahawks to cut ties with Marshawn Lynch. The matchup against
the Ravens is a difficult one, but Lamar Miller proved last week
that natural talent and a decent workload are probably more than
enough to produce against the Baltimore defense. The Browns have
tightened up against the run in recent weeks, but have still yielded
the most rushing yards to opposing running backs. St. Louis has
begun to show some cracks on defense lately as well. When one
factors in the combined ineptitude of the three offenses Seattle
will face during the fantasy playoffs, Rawls should easily hit
the 20-carry mark in every game.
Common sense, contract status and talent all would dictate that
C.J.
Spiller will finally get his shot at taking over the Saints’
backfield after New Orleans put Mark
Ingram on IR this week. Somehow, I don’t think HC Sean Payton
will see it the same way; despite being given very little reason
as to why his prized free-agent toy has been little more than
a bit player, Spiller has essentially been mothballed this season.
Hightower is the only “power” back left on the roster and actually
shares some similarities to Ingram, but owners need to remember
the former is a 29-year-old that was only signed to the roster
after the Saints lost Khiry
Robinson to injury. The reason Hightower gets a mention here
is because he figures to be the early-down option for New Orleans
going forward at a time where a lot of fantasy owners could use
a back that could potentially see 15 or so touches per week. Even
in a number of games in which they were noncompetitive, the Saints
showed impressive commitment in getting Ingram his carries. There’s
a strong likelihood that Hightower and Spiller end up splitting
snaps almost evenly down the stretch, but it is just as possible
that Payton opts to use Hightower in the same way he utilized
Ingram.
A lot of Jeffery’s owners were disappointed last week, especially
those of us who used him in DFS. (Here’s a recap of what went
wrong if it makes you feel better.) The few owners that would
like some kind of reassurance about him need only look at his
FF
Today player page: he has seen at least 11 targets in all
but one game (the one exception was a Week 10 contest against
the Rams in which St. Louis went to great lengths to take a less-than-100
percent Jeffery out of the game). Washington’s Bashaud
Breeland will be the highest-ranked cornerback (per Pro Football
Focus) Jeffrey will face the rest of the way, but he won’t be
enough of an obstacle to keep Jay
Cutler from firing it in his direction. The loss of TE Martellus
Bennett to a season-ending rib injury should also ensure that
Chicago’s top receiver dwarfs the rest of his teammates in terms
of targets.
Johnson has endured two different three-game stretches in which
he wasn’t able to find the end zone, although he is to come
very familiar with it over the last two weeks. Megatron is a WR1
play every week when he is healthy and has been for years, but
could easily remind all of his owners of his best years over this
final stretch. The Rams just got done allowing for different Arizona
receivers to score double-digit fantasy points and were burned
by A.J. Green the week before. New Orleans is laughably bad at
defending the pass and San Francisco’s combination of 5-10
Tramaine Brock and former sixth-round pick Kenneth Acker don’t
figure to be much of a challenge for Johnson. Everything just
I just wrote about Megatron basically applies to Tate as well,
with the added bonus of running a lot of his routes out of the
slot against Kyle Wilson in Week 15 and Jimmie Ward in Week 16.
Sometimes opportunity comes as a result of incredible talent
and other times it comes as a result of a depleted supporting
cast. New England isn’t going to stop throwing the ball
simply because it is missing Julian Edelman, Dion Lewis and Rob
Gronkowski. The Patriots run a slot-heavy passing offense and
likely matchups against Kareem Jackson, Coty Sensabaugh and Buster
Skrine will be the softest of all the matchups that New England
receivers will face during the fantasy playoffs.
If this article seems a bit heavy on Seahawks, look no further
than the remaining competition. Baldwin has caught 24 of his 31
targets in the four weeks since Seattle’s bye and has consistently
been in a position to do something after the catch on seemingly
every reception. The former undrafted free agent should be expected
to see plenty of Lardarius
Webb, K’Waun Williams and Lamarcus
Joyner out of the slot during the fantasy playoffs. While
none can be considered “easy” matchups, it should be noted that
PFF has Baldwin graded out 11th among receivers – higher than
wideouts such as Julian Edelman and Brandon
Marshall. Rawls’ ability (as well as the offensive line’s)
to make the ground game relevant again factored in with the loss
of TE Jimmy
Graham should ensure Baldwin sees the majority of targets
over the middle for the rest of the season, meaning he very easily
could maintain his current second-half pace until the start of
the NFL Playoffs.
Prior to last week’s two-catch, five-yard dud against the Ravens
in a game in which the Dolphins attempted only 19 passes, Landry
has been a rock for his PPR owners. That should remain the case
for the rest of the season as Landry spends the bulk of his time
in the slot, where he should square off against Trevin
Wade, Patrick
Robinson and Darius
Butler most of the time. Even (and especially) if rookie DeVante
Parker continues to impress, Landry figures to remain Ryan
Tannehill’s favorite target and will almost always have the
best matchup of any Miami receiver on the field.
When a wideout scores on two short-range receiver screens –
particularly on one from a yard out – in the same game,
it is a pretty good indication that he has earned the trust of
the coaching staff and the quarterback. But there is more to it
than that: Maclin has also done enough to earn the trust of Alex
Smith, who is tied for fourth in the league with 28 completions
of 25 yards or more – a number and a ranking that would
have been unthinkable even a month ago. While this could be a
slow week for Maclin – particularly if the Chiefs dominate
the Chargers on the ground again – the Ravens and Browns
over the next two weeks present incredibly soft matchups for the
ex-Eagle to exploit.
Evans may be worth including on this list just for what he could
do this week to the Saints’ Brandon
Browner, who is PFF’s lowest-ranked cornerback. The second-year
wideout has settled in as a pretty consistent fantasy WR2 over
the last five weeks in large part because the inefficiency (drops
as well as the early scattershot accuracy of Jameis
Winston) that plagued him early has dissipated recently. Evans
will likely draw gambling CB Janoris
Jenkins in Week 15 and Tracy
Porter in Week 16. Both players are among PFF’s top 40 cornerbacks
this season, but it would be a tall order for either one or both
of them to contain the 6-5, 230-pound manchild that is Evans.
It says a great deal about Watkins’s ability that he is
not only incredibly underutilized, but also mostly miscast as
a deep-ball receiver (he has elite after-the-catch ability) and
still able to dominate the box score from time to time. Even considering
everything that is working against him, a lack of consistent targets
is about the only thing really keeping from the former No. 4 overall
pick from being considered one of the top two or three young receivers
in the game. Watkins’ upcoming schedule is no cakewalk,
although he should have his way this week against the Eagles.
Breeland has drawn a top-10 grade from PFF this season and is
the overwhelming favorite to spend significant time defending
Watkins in Week 15, but he doesn’t pose any more of a threat
than Kansas City’s Sean Smith did to Watkins in Week 12
(6-158-2 in the first half). Dallas’ scheme tends to prevent
big pass plays, so the Bills may have to be a bit more creative
in order to get their lead receiver involved in Week 16.
The Ohio State product may not only be the de facto No. 1 receiver
in Cleveland this week, but about the only legitimate wideout
the team has at its disposal that can catch Johnny Manziel’s
passes. Travis Benjamin (shoulder) isn’t practicing while
Taylor Gabriel (concussion) and Andrew Hawkins (concussion) haven’t
played since Week 10. Even Gary Barnidge (ankle) is being limited
in practice this week. Hartline is almost always an uninspiring
choice because he has never possessed much touchdown upside (and
has even less now in a declining offense). With that said, he’s
seen at least nine targets in each of his last four games and
may not have any realistic competition for targets this week in
a fairly soft matchup.
Watson’s midseason fantasy-scoring binge has slowed in
recent weeks, although some of that can be attributed to the quality
of defenses he has faced. Outside of a middling matchup against
the Bucs this week, the Lions and Jaguars are among the five most
favorable defenses for opposing tight ends to face the season.
Watson’s targets have remained reasonably high since Week
6 and New Orleans’ defense is pathetic enough that Drew
Brees & Co. will probably need to throw all game every game
the rest of the way.
No tight end has a better end-of-season schedule than Olsen.
I stated last week that I stopped just short of predicting him
to score a touchdown in every remaining game of the fantasy season,
but it sure would not surprise me if he did. His 104 targets this
season lead the NFL (two more than Julio Jones) and are 11 more
than any other tight end. In short, not only does he have exploitable
matchups, but he is also getting plenty of opportunities to take
advantage of them.
Somewhere around the same time the Jaguars defeated the Titans
on Thursday Night Football in Week 11, the Jacksonville coaching
staff decided it was time to force-feed Thomas the ball, particularly
in the red zone. He has scored in every game since and may continue
to do so against his remaining schedule. His yardage totals are
hardly inspiring (28 or fewer yards in six of his eight games
as a Jaguar), but the likelihood that he finds the end zone in
each of his team’s remaining games probably trails only
Olsen. The best news of all: the Saints are Jacksonville’s
Week 16 matchup and the league’s worst defense at defending
opposing tight ends.
Looking past this week’s game against a Patriots’
defense that is quite stingy versus opposing tight ends, Griffin
finishes the season with a pair of favorable matchups. It would
take quite a leap of faith to put much trust into a Texans tight
end, but it is also very noteworthy that Griffin has seen at least
five targets in three of his last four games since coming off
short-term IR and caught a touchdown in each of his last two –
matching the number Houston tight ends managed during his absence.
This recommendation comes as a result of Martellus Bennett going
on IR earlier this week. None of Miller’s remaining matchups
are particularly favorable, but the University of Nebraska-Omaha
product should be a good bet for 6-7 targets every week with Bennett
no longer around and the Bears dealing with their fair share of
injuries at receiver. Miller has turned four of his 16 receptions
into touchdowns and should be no worse than Jay Cutler’s
second option in the red zone.
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.