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Doug Orth | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


The More, The Better: RBs
All Out Blitz: Volume 136
9/13/18
RBs | WRs | TEs

Imagine if, in one year in the near future, candy wasn't handed out on Halloween, turkey wasn't served on Thanksgiving or gifts weren't placed under the tree for Christmas. Pick one. Now imagine thinking "this is the new normal" because of that one singular incident in one year. In a nutshell, this is how owners tend to react after Week 1.

Thankfully, my loyal readers either know better than to overreact after Week 1 or simply don't bother to reach out to me to panic. That's good. (Thank you.) As hard as it is for most people in a compressed season, each week is little more than a series of data points that we hope tell a more complete story by season's end. Sometimes we know 30 minutes into a movie or a couple of episodes into a TV series that it is time to bail. How many times have you not bailed and glad you stuck it out? This is the fine line owners walk sometimes in this hobby.

It is my intention to spend the first four weeks trying to lay the foundation for this season. Snap counts and targets are a nice starting point, but I want to go a bit deeper. In particular, I think it will be helpful for owners to know how much of the backfield pie their backs are getting, their receivers' target shares and how often their tight end is getting the ball when he is on the field, etc.

Key:

Snap % - The percentage of plays the player was on the field

% RB Touches - The percentage of offensive touches the back had relative to his teammates at the same position

Activity -
How often the back touched the ball when he was on the field

Note: Backs with fewer than five touches were not included.

 Running Back Participation, Week 1
Player Tm Snaps Snap % Touches % RB Touches Activity
David Johnson ARI 36 68% 14 63.6% 38.9%
Chase Edmonds ARI 17 32% 8 36.4% 47.1%
Devonta Freeman ATL 39 56% 10 52.6% 25.6%
Tevin Coleman ATL 36 51% 9 47.4% 25.0%
Javorius Allen BAL 30 38% 9 30.0% 30.0%
Alex Collins BAL 27 34% 8 26.7% 29.6%
LeSean McCoy BUF 34 53% 8 47.1% 23.5%
Marcus Murphy BUF 23 36% 6 35.3% 26.1%
Christian McCaffrey CAR 57 85% 16 66.7% 28.1%
Jordan Howard CHI 50 71% 20 69.0% 40.0%
Tarik Cohen CHI 28 40% 8 27.6% 28.6%
Joe Mixon CIN 44 79% 22 91.7% 50.0%
Carlos Hyde CLE 47 53% 23 71.9% 48.9%
Duke Johnson CLE 41 46% 6 18.8% 14.6%
Ezekiel Elliott DAL 59 92% 18 94.7% 30.5%
Phillip Lindsay DEN 26 35% 17 47.2% 65.4%
Royce Freeman DEN 29 39% 15 41.7% 51.7%
Theo Riddick DET 41 59% 9 42.9% 22.0%
Kerryon Johnson DET 16 23% 8 38.1% 50.0%
Jamaal Williams GB 37 62% 15 78.9% 40.5%
Lamar Miller HOU 57 77% 21 77.8% 36.8%
Jordan Wilkins IND 46 56% 17 54.8% 37.0%
Nyheim Hines IND 37 45% 12 38.7% 32.4%
T.J. Yeldon JAX 39 62% 17 56.7% 43.6%
Leonard Fournette JAX 21 33% 12 40.0% 57.1%
Kareem Hunt KC 40 71% 16 72.7% 40.0%
Melvin Gordon LAC 62 76% 24 68.6% 38.7%
Austin Ekeler LAC 22 27% 10 28.6% 45.5%
Todd Gurley LAR 59 94% 23 88.5% 39.0%
Kenyan Drake MIA 46 74% 17 65.4% 37.0%
Frank Gore MIA 18 29% 9 34.6% 50.0%
Dalvin Cook MIN 57 80% 22 66.7% 38.6%
Latavius Murray MIN 14 20% 11 33.3% 78.6%
Rex Burkhead NE 38 51% 19 51.4% 50.0%
James White NE 36 48% 9 24.3% 25.0%
Alvin Kamara NO 52 81% 17 81.0% 32.7%
Saquon Barkley NYG 55 77% 20 80.0% 36.4%
Bilal Powell NYJ 24 40% 13 43.3% 54.2%
Isaiah Crowell NYJ 24 40% 10 33.3% 41.7%
Trenton Cannon NYJ 12 20% 7 23.3% 58.3%
Jalen Richard OAK 37 50% 14 42.4% 37.8%
Marshawn Lynch OAK 27 36% 13 39.4% 48.1%
Jay Ajayi PHI 29 40% 15 51.7% 51.7%
Darren Sproles PHI 29 40% 9 31.0% 31.0%
James Conner PIT 77 92% 36 100.0% 46.8%
Rashaad Penny SEA 25 44% 11 50.0% 44.0%
Chris Carson SEA 25 44% 10 45.5% 40.0%
Alfred Morris SF 34 52% 12 48.0% 35.3%
Matt Breida SF 30 45% 11 44.0% 36.7%
Peyton Barber TB 48 73% 19 82.6% 39.6%
Dion Lewis TEN 49 71% 21 65.6% 42.9%
Derrick Henry TEN 20 29% 11 34.4% 55.0%
Adrian Peterson WAS 42 53% 28 66.7% 66.7%
Chris Thompson WAS 33 42% 11 26.2% 33.3%

** Sorted by team and then by Snap %

I consider running backs who see at least 60 percent of their backfield's touches to be workhorse backs. Somewhat surprisingly, 19 backs hit that mark in Week 1. Two of the more surprising ones were Peterson and Lewis. I tend to believe both were related to game script (positive in the case of the former and negative in the case of the latter). Although some owners of either one or both backs are already rejoicing about how their guy(s) are in charge of their backfield, take a step back and relax. In addition to the likelihood neither player is going to become a workhorse given what their backfield partner brings to the table, Peterson and Lewis don't have a great track record for staying healthy.

The good news in Peterson's case is that he will continue to run behind a very good offensive line, receive a lot of volume for as long as he can hold up and/or the defense plays as well as it did against Arizona. In the case of Lewis, he's going to be a safer bet from week to week than Derrick Henry because he should have a safe 10-carry floor to go along with the majority of the work in the passing game. It's still quite possible - if not likely - Henry will be the top scoring fantasy back in Tennessee this season, but he is going to need Tennessee to play better defensively to get the volume he needs to get there.

Backfields that were committees in Week 1 likely to stay that way for at least a while moving forward: Devonta Freeman/Coleman (Atlanta), Hyde/Duke Johnson (Cleveland), Royce Freeman/Lindsay (Denver), Riddick/Kerryon Johnson (Detroit), Wilkins/Hines/Marlon Mack - when he returns (Indianapolis), Burkhead/White (New England), Powell/Crowell (NY Jets), Morris/Breida (San Francisco), Henry/Lewis (Tennessee), Peterson/Thompson (Washington)

Backfields that appeared to be committees in Week 1 but unlikely to stay that way moving forward: Collins/Allen (Baltimore), Fournette/Yeldon (Jacksonville), Carson/Penny (Seattle)

Regarding the first group, it's important to note Hyde had 23 touches compared to six for Duke Johnson and three for Nick Chubb. In this case and others (Detroit and Indianapolis come immediately to mind), the "committee" appears to be an early down versus late down committee as opposed to backs rotating series or even plays based on personnel grouping. Of course, none of this comes as a huge surprise since that was the expectation going into the season. The fact Denver is going with a committee should not actually be all that surprising either, although the identity of one of the backs is what caught most of us off guard. It would not surprise me in the least if the Broncos slot Freeman and Lindsay into the same roles the Chargers have set up for Gordon and Ekeler. Freeman did nothing in Week 1 to lose work moving forward, so owners need to sit tight with him. This figures to be his backfield sooner than later (with Lindsay changing the pace).

As for the latter group, Collins was supposedly benched for his first-half fumble and not needed once Baltimore really began to pull away from Baltimore. (The Ravens also likely had in mind to keep his workload in check for the short week.) Fournette suffered a "minor" hamstring injury but was rolling prior to going down. The Seahawks spent all offseason praising Carson before predictably giving Penny one more touch in Week 1 even though he missed a good chunk of training camp and mysteriously added about 15 pounds since the NFL Combine. HC Pete Carroll told reporters upon review of the tape that Carson "really took the lead at that position" while Penny "looked a little rusty." (Stunning.) The Seattle backfield has been a difficult one for fantasy owners to trust since Marshawn Lynch was in his prime, but one has to think Week 1 was yet another clear indication Carson needs to be the unquestioned lead back for now.

Running Backs | Wide Receivers | Tight Ends


Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.