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Doug Orth | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Put Me In, Coach: RBs
All Out Blitz: Volume 143
11/1/18
RBs | WRs | TEs

One of fantasy football's great traditions is the regular asking of the following question: "Is (insert name here) even playing?"

Barring injury or complete ineffectiveness, most of the players at the top of the tables in this article are not likely to have that question asked about them very often. But most successful fantasy football owners aren't overly concerned about whether the stars are playing (that should be a given), but rather what players are on the rise and which ones aren't. Similarly, is a certain player's recent production a bit of a fluke or possibly sustainable?

One of the easiest ways to answer these questions and increase our "hit rate" is by tracking the percentage of the snaps they are playing and whether those percentages will allow for sustainable production. It also is beneficial to identify players who have seen their playing time increase dramatically over the last month or so. It is that last group of players I want to focus on this week at each position.

 Running Back Snap Percentages by Week
Player Tm 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
David Johnson ARI 68% 78% 86% 92% 94% 95% 73% 80%
Tevin Coleman ATL 51% 65% 78% 57% 38% 57% 57%
Ito Smith ATL 29% 15% 43% 17% 46% 43%
Javorius Allen BAL 38% 49% 54% 44% 57% 37% 44% 34%
Alex Collins BAL 34% 49% 49% 48% 31% 45% 41% 49%
Ty Montgomery BAL 38% 34% 29% 26% 36% 37% 12%
LeSean McCoy BUF 53% 48% 60% 72% 76% 4% 72%
Chris Ivory BUF 11% 15% 81% 38% 28% 26% 64% 30%
Christian McCaffrey CAR 85% 94% 100% 97% 100% 100% 98%
Jordan Howard CHI 71% 73% 62% 54% 51% 56% 58%
Tarik Cohen CHI 40% 32% 41% 48% 49% 51% 58%
Joe Mixon CIN 76% 51% 78% 69% 76% 85%
Giovani Bernard CIN 25% 51% 88% 60%
Duke Johnson CLE 46% 37% 38% 35% 51% 47% 51% 36%
Ezekiel Elliott DAL 92% 94% 95% 77% 81% 86% 100%
Phillip Lindsay DEN 35% 42% 16% 40% 38% 30% 59% 56%
Royce Freeman DEN 39% 24% 43% 27% 39% 38% 31%
Devontae Booker DEN 26% 33% 38% 33% 29% 33% 10% 44%
Kerryon Johnson DET 23% 47% 45% 37% 47% 59% 81%
Theo Riddick DET 59% 36% 28% 46% 31%
LeGarrette Blount DET 19% 22% 35% 26% 29% 33% 12%
Jamaal Williams GB 62% 61% 43% 37% 41% 38% 25%
Aaron Jones GB 25% 38% 27% 27% 62%
Lamar Miller HOU 77% 76% 76% 53% 67% 70% 56%
Alfred Blue HOU 14% 25% 24% 47% 99% 41% 42% 48%
Nyheim Hines IND 45% 39% 73% 69% 67% 43% 26% 36%
Jordan Wilkins IND 56% 39% 29% 34% 22% 23% 4%
Marlon Mack IND 30% 35% 56% 63%
T.J. Yeldon JAX 62% 58% 67% 62% 93% 65% 82% 58%
Carlos Hyde JAX 53% 58% 58% 61% 35% 43% 44%
Kareem Hunt KC 71% 69% 62% 58% 74% 57% 66% 84%
Melvin Gordon LAC 76% 63% 77% 72% 70% 63%
Austin Ekeler LAC 27% 42% 35% 34% 36% 35% 95%
Todd Gurley LAR 94% 68% 83% 96% 100% 78% 59% 90%
Kenyan Drake MIA 74% 60% 66% 45% 64% 63% 64% 56%
Frank Gore MIA 29% 40% 36% 51% 41% 38% 45% 44%
Latavius Murray MIN 20% 32% 58% 55% 74% 82% 84% 84%
Dalvin Cook MIN 80% 68% 24%
James White NE 48% 56% 52% 49% 61% 42% 70% 80%
James Develin NE 47% 33% 17% 41% 22% 42% 23% 36%
Sony Michel NE 21% 48% 41% 41% 47% 9%
Alvin Kamara NO 81% 77% 85% 84% 47% 55% 72%
Saquon Barkley NYG 77% 85% 71% 87% 86% 77% 97%
Bilal Powell NYJ 40% 52% 54% 64% 55% 45% 20%
Isaiah Crowell NYJ 40% 48% 46% 36% 40% 41% 46% 46%
Marshawn Lynch OAK 36% 63% 55% 54% 40% 50%
Jalen Richard OAK 50% 12% 26% 37% 50% 40% 44%
Wendell Smallwood PHI 1% 30% 35% 46% 49% 62% 52% 50%
Corey Clement PHI 18% 42% 55% 37% 37% 21%
James Conner PIT 92% 89% 85% 79% 74% 90% 79%
Chris Carson SEA 44% 29% 72% 58% 42% 67%
Mike Davis SEA 14% 12% 71% 42% 36% 32%
Matt Breida SF 45% 41% 43% 63% 13% 47% 9% 47%
Alfred Morris SF 52% 48% 34% 23% 45% 2% 34% 17%
Peyton Barber TB 73% 62% 59% 49% 62% 37% 49%
Jacquizz Rodgers TB 23% 31% 35% 17% 15% 32% 38%
Dion Lewis TEN 71% 56% 48% 68% 63% 73% 63%
Derrick Henry TEN 29% 44% 52% 39% 39% 27% 34%
Adrian Peterson WAS 53% 34% 52% 21% 53% 57% 60%
Chris Thompson WAS 42% 68% 41% 66% 38%

***Cutoff to qualify for the list was 25 percent of team's snaps for the season. Notable exceptions such as Aaron Jones were included given likely future upside.

While it may surprise some Christian McCaffrey is playing an almost unthinkable 96 percent of the snaps, he is one of six backs over 80 percent. Although some owners may not like how these backs are used on occasion, they should very fortunate to have a member of the 80-and-over club on their team. Melvin Gordon has yet to see 80 percent of the snaps in any game, but his 63.2 percent rate is considerably lower than what it was prior to the hamstring injury that cost him Week 7. While he's not part of the 80-and-over club, he could easily be considered an honorary member. Joe Mixon would almost certainly be in this group as well were it not for the Week 2 knee injury that cost him two games. We already know T.J. Yeldon is about to fall off a cliff should Leonard Fournette stay healthy upon his likely Week 10 return, but Alvin Kamara's 72 percent snap rate in Week 8 should rest any remaining lingering fears Mark Ingram is going to steal significant playing time from him.

Playing time obviously hasn't been an issue for Dion Lewis (63 percent) or Kenyan Drake (62.7) either, but owners have every right to be a bit disappointed with both players from a full-season fantasy perspective. Lewis' 29 receptions certainly have helped his cause and his 14.6 touches per game are about what owners should have expected, but the Titans' offense as a whole has been dreadful, which had contributed greatly to his 3.8 yards per carry, 6.9 yards per reception and a meager two rushing attempts inside the 5. Drake's big-play ability has helped his cause in a big way over the last month, and he has become a much bigger part of the passing game since Brock Osweiler took over for an injured Ryan Tannehill in Week 5. But let's be clear about something: while his touches have increased over the last four games, his likely unsustainable touchdown rate (one per 13.5 touches since Week 4) is the main reason for his recent solid fantasy production. He already has five touchdowns in 97 touches this season after scoring four times on 165 touches in 2017.

I have long considered a 60 percent snap percentage to be on the borderline of featured back status and 70 percent to be workhorse status, but statistics often lie and this is no exception. Of the 14 "featured backs" halfway through the season, there are at least four (Kamara, Yeldon, Tevin Coleman and Jordan Howard) who stand to be outscored by someone in their own backfield on a least a semi-regular basis. And if we do nothing more than average the current PPR ranks of the 14 active players who see 40-49 percent of their team's snaps and compare those to the six who are currently in the 50-60 percent range, we will find the average member of the latter group ranks 22.5 (boosted immensely by James White in fifth place), while the average member of the former group is 28. While I will admit such comparisons are somewhat arbitrary, they do support something we should already know: in this day and age, running back production - outside of the elite options - is now more about how running backs get their touches (i.e. through the air) and less about volume than it used to be even three or four years ago. This is something I have obviously accounted for with my rankings each summer, but I frankly have not given it as much weight as I should. It's also worth mentioning backs who make the bulk of their living in the passing game don't seem to lose their roles very often.

Looking solely for backs who have seen a dramatic increase in playing time over the last four weeks, some are fairly obvious and/or due to injury to another member of the backfield: Latavius Murray, Philip Lindsay, Yeldon, Austin Ekeler and Kerryon Johnson. And then there are the not-so-obvious, including Alfred Blue, Wendell Smallwood, Jalen Richard and Tarik Cohen, who have all watched their playing time increase by at least 10 percent over the second quarter of the season. Cohen is the RB12 in PPR leagues right now and has been a key figure during Chicago's recent offensive surge, which makes me wonder if HC Matt Nagy was trying to "shorten the season" for his undersized back by limiting him in September. Either way, he's almost splitting snaps right down the middle with Howard over the last three games. Richard's emergence isn't surprising either considering Oakland has basically traded itself into negative game script. Smallwood is seeing significantly more time in the backfield now than Corey Clement and has probably earned himself regular flex status for the foreseeable future. Blue is notable not because he is a mind-blowing talent, but rather because his usage has continued to increase despite Lamar Miller's solid play over the last two weeks. At the very least, it suggests there will be a real role for D'Onta Foreman if/when he returns from the PUP list.

Let's wrap up the running backs by saying a few words about Aaron Jones. Last week's 62 percent was 24 points higher than in any other week this season. Does the trade of Ty Montgomery help keep that number around 50-60 percent? It probably should, but it probably also means Jamaal Williams' role will grow since it would appear he is McCarthy's most trusted receiver, pass protector and route-runner coming out of the backfield. The departure of Montgomery alone doesn't figure to make either back RB1 material, and HC Mike McCarthy has been pretty stubborn about his "each back gives us something the others don't" approach so far. As much as Jones' owners feel like now is the time for their guy to shine, it's just as likely Jones will be Mr. Positive Game Script and Williams will be Mr. Negative Game Script. Whatever owners do, it's best we don't pretend as if we have McCarthy figured out. This year has likely been his worst as a coach and strategist, and there doesn't seem to be a lot of rhyme or reason to the way he deploys personnel each week.


Running Backs | Wide Receivers | Tight Ends


Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.