In the majority of my high-stakes leagues year in and year out,
there are usually no fewer than 70 running backs on rosters. Even
at a position where a number of NFL teams have opted for a committee
approach, it makes for slim pickings on the waiver wire. Worse yet,
it makes it very difficult for owners to beat the rush on the one
(or maybe two) backs who typically emerge in November or December
to carry their fake teams to fantasy championships.
As is the case in many walks of life, just because something
is difficult doesn't mean we shouldn't try. The carnage - be it
due to injury or a change on the depth chart - that usually hits
the running back position during the first half of each season
has yet to strike in a big way in 2019, but it's pretty much inevitable
that time is coming. Yes, owners had to deal without Saquon Barkley
for a bit, but his fantasy owners got a nice gift when he only
missed three games.
It's always helpful for owners to contemplate and discuss the
unheralded players who could potentially change their season down
the line, especially at arguably the most important position in
fantasy football. Because we are nearing the halfway point of
the actual NFL season, it makes this week as good as time as any
to get familiar with the "next man up" at running back
across the league.
A lot of times, fantasy owners prioritize landing the handcuffs
(or at least the players they believe are the direct backup) of
their backs as opposed to focusing on the backs with the clearest
path to a featured workload. Opting for the former approach provides
peace of mind, but it doesn't provide the most upside unless those
same handcuffs are also the ones with the highest upside. Chase
Edmonds was the latest to prove that last week, but rest assured
there will be others in the coming weeks.
In alphabetical order, here is a list of backups who
should be owned in virtually every league (assumes 12-team leagues
with at least 16 roster spots)
The above list is obviously subjective, but it creates a working
list of players and teams from which to work from at the very
least. (If any of them are available, you have my permission to
open another tab on your browser, go to your league website and
add them now before returning to find out what else is on my mind.)
In order of potential impact, here is a list of readily available
running backs who could very well decide fantasy championships
in a couple of months:
Prior to week 5, about the only thing most of the NFL knew about
Bonnafon was that he was a starting quarterback at the University
of Louisville for a short time before some guy named Lamar Jackson
burst onto the scene, forcing him to move to running back and
then wide receiver over his final two seasons with the Cardinals.
Then, in one fell swoop, fantasy owners quickly learned that the
Panthers actually have other backs on the roster besides Christian
McCaffrey. As most owners know by now, Bonnafon carried five times
for 80 yards in that game, including a 59-yard score late with
McCaffrey on the sideline dealing with back spasms. A few days
later, OC Norv Turner told reporters Bonnafon has "probably
improved more than anyone on offense over the last year and a
half."
Fantasy owners are usually hesitant about putting much trust
into players like Bonnafon with no draft pedigree. Use that to
your advantage. While not every year is going to produce a player
like Phillip Lindsay, NFL history is littered with undrafted running
backs who were overlooked and ultimately undrafted. More importantly,
Jourdan Rodrigue of The Athletic spoke highly of Bonnafon's skill
and work habits near the end of August.
“When Christian is spelled, Reggie is taking the exact
same snaps that Christian is taking. … The types of things
that they have in their playbook designed for Christian, Reggie
is working those plays (in the preseason). … All offseason,
he studied film specifically with Christian. They would go off
and have their own film sessions together. So I thought that that
was really interesting because that shows you a lot about what
his future role will be.”
McCaffrey keeps himself in phenomenal shape, so it's not as if
Bonnafon and his prospective fantasy owners should expect disaster
to strike anytime soon. However, the best owners are usually among
the most prepared for when disaster strikes. Bonnafon is the only
running back on the roster besides McCaffrey - Alex
Armah is a fullback - to play a down this season. The above
quote should be all the proof any owner needs to understand just
how important Bonnafon could be down the stretch should McCaffrey
suffer an injury that sidelines him longer than his back spasms
did against the Jaguars.
Bye weeks affect owners differently, but there's not much excuse
for a potential bell-cow running back to be floating on waivers,
especially considering he is backing up a player in Saquon Barkley
who is just coming off a high-ankle sprain and appeared to aggravate
it on a third-quarter run in Week 7. It's reasonable to suggest
Barkley is at higher risk to struggle with it moving forward (or
overcompensate and injure another part of his lower body), so
his fantasy owners would be foolish to believe he's in the clear
now just because he's back on the field.
Gallman obviously has minimal standalone value at the moment,
but we are also getting to the point of the season where it makes
sense to dump low-end NFL starters who may be on a fantasy roster
to cover an early bye week in order to secure a player who is
literally one injury away from becoming an every-week RB2. We've
already seen it happen once with the Clemson product this season
- he only lasted one full game before suffering a concussion in
his second start. The only other running back on the roster beside
Barkley and Gallman is FB Elijhaa Penny. Gallman is obviously
not in Barkley's class when it comes to talent, but talent isn't
always the most important thing when trying to identify the player
most likely to blow up over the second half of the season; opportunity
usually is. Gallman is one mishap away from a huge opportunity
and has produced at a reasonable level when he's been called upon
during his NFL career. If Barkley gets hurt again, Gallman would
be a no-brainer RB2 with RB1 upside, especially in the fantasy
playoffs (Week 15 against Miami and Week 16 against Washington).
I'm only going to include Pollard here to remind readers in more
casual leagues to check on his availability. The fourth-round
rookie is the clear backup to Ezekiel Elliott, but last week was
only the second time since Week 1 that he exceeded four touches.
Zeke has been extremely durable throughout his pro career, so
it is only natural to believe non-Elliott owners are burning a
roster spot by stashing him. Additionally, it's fair to wonder
if a back who never exceeded 78 carries in a season in college
would be asked to assume the same weekly workload Elliott is being
asked to carry now. Nevertheless, the scheme and his supporting
cast would probably allow him to perform at an RB2 level.
While it appears Leonard Fournette's offseason
training regimen has served him well, he already has racked
up 172 touches in seven games (24.6 per game) and is on pace for
about 394. So what we have here is a player who has yet to play
more than 13 games in a season with a history of lower-body injuries
on a track to handle the ball 90 more times than he ever has as
a pro.
Whether we begin to see a bit of decline in production over the
next few weeks due to his first-half workload or the team simply
wants to reduce his risk for injury down the stretch, it may not
be long before Armstead finds himself more involved. The rookie
doesn't possess the receiving chops of Fournette, but he - like
Gallman - appears to have little in the way of competition for
carries should Fournette go down. There's been no word of Alfred Blue returning from IR, Tyler Ervin is a scatback and Devine Ozigbo
has yet to play a snap, much less give Armstead a run for his
money. Jacksonville's fantasy playoff schedule also offers plenty
of hope as well; the Chargers (Week 14), Raiders (Week 15) and
Falcons (Week 16) haven't exactly held up well against running
backs in recent weeks.
Unlike our first three entries, Williams makes the list due to
the likelihood of a change near the top of the depth chart. While
I remain steadfast in my belief that Darwin Thompson is the Chiefs'
running back of the future and perhaps the best one on the roster
now, trying to pinpoint when a player earns the trust of his coaches
will always be an inexact science. Williams has certainly proven
capable of being the man of the present in limited action. Interestingly,
HC Andy Reid seems to have settled on him as the primary third-down
option. But this recommendation isn't about that.
LeSean McCoy is proving he still has some life left in his 31-year-old
legs and appears to be the main back in Kansas City (for now),
but durability has been an issue for him in recent years. However,
the main reason for Williams being this high has to do with Damien Williams. At some point, Reid is going to need to ask himself
if he can justify continuing to give carries to Damien Williams,
who has somehow amassed only 70 yards on 41 attempts (long run
of six yards). Meanwhile, Darrel Williams has 76 yards rushing
on 19 carries (long of 41 yards). While yards per carry rarely
tells us the whole story when it comes to running backs, it is
at least notable Damien Williams averaged 3.6 YPC on 133 rush
attempts with Miami before joining the Chiefs prior to last season.
Unsurprisingly, that is exactly where he is at through 91 carries
with Kansas City. Unless the knee injury that sidelined him for
two weeks is still an issue, Damien Williams has no business eating
up touches in this backfield. (And if the knee is still an issue,
sit him.)
It's probably not a coincidence that McCoy and Darrel Williams
were the primary ball-carriers in the two games in which the Chiefs
actually ran the ball with some success. With Patrick Mahomes
expected to miss some time, it's going to be even more important
to establish a threat on the ground. The odds of that happening
are significantly stronger if Darrel Williams becomes a more important
part of the offense again.
This one could be a bit of a combo platter (including Benny Snell)
considering Samuels is expected to miss at least one to two more
games. While James Conner is firmly entrenched as the starter,
he has already been on the injury report with three different
ailments (knee, ankle and calf) through six games. He is working
with a second-string quarterback who has elicited so much confidence
in his offensive coordinator that the "Wildcat" became
a semi-regular part of the offense. The offensive line is among
the worst in the league at in run-blocking this season, while
Conner is averaging 1.1 yards before contact this season (2.4
last year) and not breaking a ton of tackles either (one every
18.5 carries versus one per 10.8 in 2018). It's easy for people
to become prisoners of the moment and fall victim to recency bias
when Conner has posted two big fantasy performances over his last
three games, but those efforts came against a Bengals' defense
that has been the most gracious fantasy defense against running
backs and an injury-ravaged Chargers' run-stopping unit. If all
of that wasn't convincing enough, just look at Conner's rushing
totals so far. (Spoiler alert: they aren't inspirational.)
So why Samuels and/or Snell? First of all, the pressure to start
them regularly in fantasy isn't the same because fantasy owners
didn't invest an early pick into either one nor are the expectations
the same. Perhaps more importantly, Samuels has operated as the
Wildcat quarterback and would conceivably see the same kind of
workload Conner is getting now if/when Conner sits. Like it or
not, Pittsburgh will try to win by running the ball and playing
defense for as long as the coaching staff believes Mason Rudolph
needs to be managed. Conner really hasn't seen the kind of workload
one might expect in an offense that is, quite frankly, just trying
to get by each week at this point. I don't blame Conner; I think
time will tell that he is a good and possibly very good running
back, but his situation is currently a mess. So while I doubt
Samuels can be a league-winner per se, he would be an RB2 or flex
on most fantasy teams down the stretch as opposed to the RB1 that
Conner was drafted to be this summer.
Here's an example of a player who was drafted to be a potential
league-winner despite coming off ACL surgery and attached to a
team with little hope of enjoying a winning season. His rise up
the depth chart was swift, as he needed only 11 carries in one
preseason game to prove to then-HC Jay Gruden that he was ready
to be the featured back. That lasted all of one game, as Guice
was diagnosed with a torn meniscus after running for 18 yards
on 10 carries in his NFL debut. There's also the small matter
of his current employer; Washington's best offensive player (LT
Trent Williams) is unlikely to play at all this season and the
offense is pretty much replacement-level after impressive rookie
Terry McLaurin.
The one thing Washington may offer, however, is opportunity.
If interim HC Bill Callahan was in agreement with Gruden about
Guice being the lead dog, then it is entirely possible the LSU
product could walk into a 20-touch workload if/when he returns
from IR. Is there any guarantee of that happening? Of course not.
He could share carries with Adrian Peterson for the remainder
of the season as a way to build some confidence in his health
before taking back the featured role in 2020. It's also quite
possible he gets thrown right into the fire - just like he was
this summer - as Callahan and his staff go about evaluating the
talent on the roster while also trying to save their jobs. Owners
need to be realistic about Guice's potential impact though; he
possesses more fantasy upside than Peterson in part because he
is able to contribute more in the passing game, but his offensive
line and supporting cast figure to lead to the same high number
of negative game scripts that Peterson has faced all season long.
In a prescient moment for me, I discussed
Johnson at some length following Week 2 (coinciding with Detroit's
release of C.J. Anderson). Most of what I said at that time still
applies after Kerryon Johnson was placed on IR following knee
surgery Tuesday (Oct. 22), so I'll keep my summary on him short.
Much of the talk in the fantasy industry since the Kerryon Johnson
news has been that Ty Johnson didn't do much with his touches
in Week 7 against the Vikings (10 carries for 29 yards; four catches
for 28 yards). I have some news for those folks: most folks don't
run well against Minnesota.
Kerryon Johnson was averaging 3.3 YPC on 92 carries before going
down. With that said, it's entirely possible Ty Johnson will be
given one half this weekend to show the Lions' brass that he is
a capable lead back. Lucky for him, the Giants have allowed 10
or more fantasy points to at least one back from every opponent
so far, including a 35-point spot to Chase Edmonds last week.
The sixth-round rookie may also be the fastest runner New York
has faced this season. (While speed is typically overrated by
fantasy owners, the ability to hit big plays is not when a runner
is trying to establish himself.) Ty Johnson is unlikely to carry
owners to fantasy titles (in part because it feels as though Detroit
could add a back like Kenyan Drake before next week's trade deadline),
but there's no question in my mind the public is selling him short.
He can be a serviceable flex with even only 12 touches per game.
McKissic warns a mention here, if only because he and OC Darrell
Bevell bonded during their time together with the Seahawks. The
195-pounder isn't going to get used much as a traditional runner
- his career high in carries for a game is seven - but he could
have some flex appeal in fantasy anytime Detroit is projected
to get into a bit of a shootout. It's not always easy to predict
when those games will happen, but former Kerryon Johnson owners
who need to buy themselves a bit of time could do worse than a
back capable of getting roughly five carries and five catches
in a given game.
It's rare that one player can be a great handcuff in consecutive
years, but sometimes a situation can dictate it. Alex Collins
fell out of favor about this time last season, opening the door
for Edwards to take on the fourth-heaviest workload (122 carries)
of any back in the league from Weeks 11-17. Mark Ingram is unlikely
to suffer the same fate Collins did and has been managed well
through seven games, averaging just over 14 carries and just under
two catches. However, Ingram is 29 years old (turns 30 in December)
and marching closer to the magical 2,000-touch plateau for his
career (1,660 regular-season touches, to be exact) - an age and
a mark where the majority of very good and sometimes great backs
begin to slow down. Speaking of which (and not saying that is
exactly what's happening now), Ingram is averaging 3.3 YPC over
the last three contests. While Edwards isn't quite the well-rounded
player Ingram is, they are being asked to execute many of the
same runs so far. As a result, Edwards would almost certainly
assume the Ingram's rushing workload if the former Saint was to
miss some time.
In my opinion, one of the bigger under-the-radar mysteries of
the first half of the 2019 season is the relative inactivity of
Hill (he has not played more than 16 offensive snaps since Week
1). Baltimore placed a heavy emphasis on speed during the draft
and Hill appeared to be in line to be a natural thunder-and-lightning
complement to Ingram. It's hard to imagine that he would not assume
a larger role in the event of an Ingram injury, yet it seemed
fairly obvious Hill would be the clear No. 2 in this backfield
all summer. It would not surprise me if Hill ended up overtaking
Edwards and/or becoming a second-half stud, but sometimes coaches
can be stubborn about "setting the physical tone" as
opposed to making sure almost every play has a chance to be a
big one. At any rate, OC Greg Roman appears content with the former
approach for now, which makes Edwards a viable RB2 in fantasy
if/when Ingram is sidelined.
Josh Jacobs suffered a shoulder injury in Week 7 that has somehow
flown mostly under the radar in terms of its seriousness. HC Jon
Gruden indicated Wednesday (Oct. 23) that the rookie needed a
shot to deal with the pain before returning to the game against
the Packers. Jacobs' fantasy owners would be wise to pick up Washington
just to protect themselves (despite the difficult matchup against
the Texans). Former owners of Kerryon Johnson could potentially
buy themselves a bit of time with a speculative add.
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.