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Steve Schwarz | Archive | Email |  
Staff Writer


Strength of Schedule: Quarterbacks
7/11/19

Nick Foles

I am forever grateful to new Jaguars starting quarterback Nick Foles for bringing my beloved Philadelphia Eagles their first Super Bowl victory back in 2017. But that performance has nothing to do with why I am touting Foles’ fantasy production for 2019. The chart at the bottom of the page clearly makes my argument for me as Foles has the easiest schedule in the NFL based on last season’s fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks!

Look at who they are facing this season. Jacksonville will meet up with the six “worst” defenses – Atlanta, Cincinnati, New Orleans, Kansas City, Tampa Bay and New York Jets. Throw in Oakland and Carolina and half their games are against bottom-10 pass defenses. I’m not saying he’s a better option than Patrick Mahomes or Andrew Luck, but he could be a solid option for owners who don’t want to spend a high pick (or big dollars) at the quarterback position. In the latest ADP rankings he’s not even in the top-25 quarterbacks.

The best combination of talent AND schedule belongs to Indy’s Luck. Only four teams own better schedules and Foles, Lamar Jackson, Kyle Murray and Cam Newton aren’t going to beat Luck’s combination of ability, total offensive talent and schedule.

Foles has the schedule, but not the talent around him when you are looking at a receiving group of Marqise Lee, Keelan Cole and Dede Westbrook. Jackson won’t throw enough and if he continues to run 20+ times a game likely won’t finish 16 games in one piece. Kyle Murray could be a player for the future, but not in 2019 and Newton, if he runs like he did in his early years (unlikely) could get close, but again his receiving corps is lacking. Christian McCaffrey is great, but Greg Olsen has spent too much time injured and the outside guys are relative unknowns.

Meanwhile, Luck has two extremely reliable receivers in T.Y. Hilton and tight end Eric Ebron. They also brought in Devin Funchess and rookie Parris Campbell. In addition, both running backs Marlon Mack and Nyheim Hines can catch the ball out of the backfield. And the ultimate fantasy bonus … Luck’s playoff schedule is second to none, facing No.28 (Tampa Bay), No.30 (New Orleans) and No. 23 (Carolina) during the three-week period from Week 14-16.

Do you believe in Jimmy Garoppolo? If you do, he’s got a very good schedule and the second-best trio of playoff games. But can a healthy Garoppolo turn Dante Pettis, track star Marquise Goodwin or rookie Deebo Samuel into consistent help for George Kittle? I’m not so sure, though with an ADP of 135.9 it’s not a big gamble.

Seahawks’ Russell Wilson had an odd statistical season in 2018 throwing for 35 touchdowns, third most, but producing just 3,448 yards (18th-best) in a run-oriented offense. Can he take advantage of his favorable schedule if he’s throwing the ball just 27 times a game? Can he still produce touchdowns at his 2018 rate without Doug Baldwin?

At the other end of the spectrum, let me temper your all-out love affair with Mahomes (ADP 29.4) as he and his Chiefs own the toughest quarterback schedule of any of the 32 teams. Eight of his 16 games are against top-10 opponents. Sure, he’s still an elite option after last season’s 50 touchdowns, ten 300-yard games and 5,097 yards, but be careful about overestimating his expected production in 2019.

Baker Mayfield (ADP 67.5) is all the rage this season (fifth off the board) after helping the Browns out of the gutter and into playoff conversations. Cleveland added an elite receiver in Odell Beckham Jr., but they also have one of the tougher schedules … and a pair of very good running backs (Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt) who could rack up touchdowns on the ground.

Philip Rivers is “Mr. Consistent,” having averaged between 21.2 and 22.4 FPts/G over six consecutive seasons. He’ll be challenged in 2019 with the seventh-hardest schedule and the third-hardest playoff schedule. The offense returns talented Hunter Henry to a list that includes Melvin Gordon, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams so Rivers has the tools to continue his steady production and likely earn solid value due to his low ADP (115.5) as the 14th quarterback off the board.

Derek Carr “traded up” from Amari Cooper to Antonio Brown, and added Tyrell Williams, but don’t go crazy for the Raiders quarterback. And definitely have a “Plan B” for the playoffs where Carr has the absolute worst playoff schedule facing the No. 6 Titans, No. 8 Jaguars and No. 7 Chargers.

Other quarterbacks who have tough schedules include; Matthew Stafford and Aaron Rodgers - because that’s the price you pay being in a division with the No.2 Minnesota and No. 5 Chicago defenses.

 2019 NFL Schedule Based on 2018 QB Defense Rankings
  1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Wk 1-16 Playoffs
JAC 29 17 6 10 23 30 31 27 17 BYE 11 6 28 7 25 32 299 64
BAL 26 4 29 22 14 31 12 BYE 21 31 17 18 19 1 27 22 294 50
ARI 13 3 23 12 31 32 16 30 19 28 19 BYE 18 14 22 12 292 48
CAR 18 28 4 17 8 28 BYE 19 6 15 32 30 20 32 12 11 280 55
IND 7 6 32 25 29 BYE 17 10 14 26 8 17 6 28 30 23 278 81
BUF 27 16 31 21 6 BYE 26 24 20 22 26 10 9 3 14 21 276 38
SF 28 31 14 BYE 22 18 20 23 4 12 4 15 3 30 32 18 274 80
SEA 31 14 30 4 18 22 3 32 28 19 BYE 24 2 18 23 4 272 45
NE 14 26 27 1 20 16 27 22 3 BYE 24 9 17 29 31 1 267 61
NYJ 1 22 21 BYE 24 9 21 8 26 16 20 25 31 26 3 14 267 43
LAR 23 30 22 28 12 19 32 31 BYE 14 5 3 4 12 9 19 263 40
TB 19 23 16 18 30 23 BYE 6 12 4 30 32 8 11 13 17 262 41
TEN 22 11 8 32 1 10 7 28 23 29 BYE 8 11 25 17 30 262 72
DAL 16 20 26 30 15 27 24 BYE 16 2 13 21 1 5 18 24 258 47
ATL 2 24 11 6 17 4 18 12 BYE 30 23 28 30 23 19 8 255 50
PIT 21 12 19 31 3 7 BYE 26 11 18 22 31 22 4 1 27 255 32
HOU 30 8 7 23 32 29 11 25 8 BYE 3 11 21 10 6 28 252 44
NO 17 18 12 9 28 8 5 4 BYE 32 28 23 32 19 11 6 252 36
CHI 15 10 20 2 24 BYE 30 7 24 13 18 16 13 9 15 29 245 53
MIN 32 15 25 5 16 24 13 20 29 9 10 BYE 12 13 7 15 245 35
WAS 24 9 5 16 21 26 19 2 1 BYE 27 13 23 15 24 16 241 55
MIA 3 21 9 7 BYE 20 1 14 27 11 1 22 24 27 16 31 234 74
PHI 20 32 13 15 27 2 9 1 5 BYE 21 12 26 16 20 9 228 45
NYG 9 1 28 20 2 21 4 13 9 27 BYE 5 15 24 26 20 224 70
CIN 12 19 1 14 4 3 8 18 BYE 3 25 14 27 22 21 26 217 69
OAK 10 29 2 11 5 BYE 15 17 13 7 31 27 29 6 8 7 217 21
LAC 11 13 17 26 10 14 6 5 15 25 29 BYE 10 8 2 25 216 35
CLE 6 27 18 3 19 12 BYE 21 10 1 14 26 14 31 4 3 209 38
GB 5 2 10 24 9 13 25 29 7 23 BYE 19 16 20 5 2 209 27
DET 4 7 24 29 BYE 15 2 16 25 5 9 20 5 2 28 10 201 40
DEN 25 5 15 8 7 6 29 11 22 BYE 2 1 7 17 29 13 197 59
KC 8 25 3 13 11 17 10 15 2 6 7 BYE 25 21 10 5 178 36