Byes – Baltimore, Denver, Houston, Indianapolis, New England and Washington

Truths

“In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.” – Unknown

1) The final bye week of the season will be a true test for quarterback depth.

Yes. Lamar Jackson, Anthony Richardson, Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix, C.J. Stroud and Drake Maye are couch-surfing this weekend. That’s a lot of firepower missing for the final week before the fantasy playoffs begin. Did you plan ahead? Are you ready for this? I hope so. Here are the quarterbacks who are less than 50% rostered and might be of value to you if you waited until the last second; Russell Wilson (36%), Jameis Winston (16%), Derek Carr (15%), Cooper Rush (5%) and Aidan O’Connell (3%). Wilson and Winston Week 13 performance speak for itself. Meanwhile, Carr plays against the sad Giants and Rush faces one of the worse pass defenses in the league in the Bengals’ secondary. Finally, O’Connell will be in Tampa Bay where the 32nd-ranked Buccaneers have allowed opposing QBs a desirable 26.0 FPts/G.

2) David Montgomery will be a dominant option in Week 14.

He already out-touched his sidekick Jahmyr Gibbs by 24-11 last Thursday, and that was before the youngster accidently gave away Lions OL protection secrets, in a media post. (Pro tip; keep your cell phone off during team meetings.) Even if Coach Campbell said all the right things publicly, Gibbs is likely to see less of a workload, if only subconsciously, by the Lions coaching staff.

3) Coaching matters, particularly when coaching rookies.

Caleb Williams’ fantasy production with Shane Waldron as OC was 16.5 FPts/G and with Thomas Brown as OC it is 25.2 FPts/G in three NFC North division battles. Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix are certainly beneficiaries of good coaching (OC Kliff Kingsbury in Washington and Denver HC Sean Payton) and are the leading candidates for OROY honors.

4) Mike Evans WILL reach the magic 1,000-yard receiving total this season.

Going into the season he has produced 10 consecutive 1,000-yard seasons, but after missing three games in the middle of the year he will need 479 yards over the final five games. He started his late season push with an 8-118-1 performance against Carolina on Sunday and faces Las Vegas, @Chargers, @Dallas, Carolina and New Orleans to finish the year. Only the Raiders from that group are top-10 (10th) against opposing wideouts. Given the absence of Chris Godwin, it should be a target-rich environment for Evans and tight end Cade Otton. I wouldn’t bet against Evans here.

5) Kyle Pitts truthers should just give up already.

Pitts will never equal his rookie season (68-1026-1). His last four games were; 2.1, 9.5, 1.9 and zero. Kirk Cousins is throwing to his wideouts, not the tight end. Drake London (37 targets), Darnell Mooney (29) and Ray-Ray McCloud (19) are all seeing more work than Pitts (12). Michael Penix Jr. won’t fix this either. This isn’t a QB problem, it’s a tight end problem. Pitts might need a change of scenery to shake him up and maybe save his career.

Lies

“Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance.” – George Bernard Shaw

1) George Pickens “diva quotient” will soon be too much for the Steelers to handle.

False. If Mike Tomlin could get the best out of Antonio Brown, he can certainly deal with Pickens. Brown was a Grade A+ diva, but under Tomlin had six elite seasons from 2013-18. During that span he produced between 19.3 and 23.9 FPts/G, led the league in yardage twice and touchdowns once. Tomlin should be able to keep Pickens under control for a few more years. Beware, however, the Steelers history says they get rid of problem receivers sooner rather than later.

2) No one can replace Christian McCaffrey.

Not true… well mostly not true. Jordan Mason averaged 17.04 FPts/G for the first five games of the season before he himself was injured. Not 100% CMC numbers, but enough to keep those who had the handcuff very happy. Why can’t Isaac Guerendo (8% rostered) do the same thing? He might be able to help you throughout the fantasy playoffs, but I wouldn’t count on it unless LT Trent Williams is back in the lineup. Williams is THE key to the 49ers offense, not the running back, not the quarterback or the wideouts.

3) Saquon Barkley should be the league MVP.

Even as a lifelong Eagles fan, this is a false statement. The league might award him the trophy if he breaks Eric Dickerson’s 2,105 rushing yards record, but in my mind what Josh Allen is doing is MVP worthy. While opponents of the Eagles and Barkley also have to account for A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith Dallas Goedert and Jalen Hurts, who does Allen Have? James Cook is pretty good, but no Saquon, and his receivers, as a group, are below average even after trading for Amari Cooper. I have no problem, however, calling Barkley a fantasy MVP.

4) Derrick Henry can turn around his current slump and lead fantasy owners to a championship.

I’m going to have to say no. It’s been four games since “King” Henry has cracked the 20-point mark and he hasn’t scored a touchdown in two games after scoring at least once in his first 11 games. Worse news is that the fantasy playoff schedule has him going against two top-11 teams over the three-week span. Both Houston (in a possible championship week) and Pittsburgh in Week 16 are tough to run against. Perhaps this Week 14 bye and a date with the weak Giants run defense in Week 15 will get him going, but I’m not fully onboard here.

5) Justin Jefferson is still elite.

He still has elite talent, but his usage of late has him being a very good, but not great fantasy receiver. Sam Darnold is using all his pass-catchers; including Jordan Addison and tight end T.J. Hockenson and isn’t forcing the ball to Jefferson anymore. The team is 10-2, so it’s working team-wise, but Jefferson is suffering the most. After averaging over 20 FPts/G the last two seasons he’s down to 16.8 this season. Since Week 9, Addison is averaging 15.1 FPts/G, JJ is averaging 13.2 and Hockenson 9.7. Targets are relatively even with Jefferson seeing 40, Addison getting 33 and Hockenson seeing 31. Jefferson is used to seeing a much higher target share. This just might be a permanent change in fantasy value for the man who has produced 460 receptions and 6,937 yards in his first 72 games.