Each week we’ll review some interesting data points related
to player usage; information I consider to be among the most predictive
and actionable in fantasy football. The truth doesn’t always
lie in the stats but usage tells the story of how a coaching staff
intends to utilize a player.
Here are some of the most important usage statistics for Week 5:
Running Back
Chris Carson
has made a leap back into a workhorse role. His snap count percentages
by week have been 77-54-44-76-84. He trended down when he was
struggling with fumbles and inefficiency, but the coaching staff
realizes he is the most effective back on the roster and returned
his usage to almost an every-snap level. Start him with confidence.
Despite the lack of production from James
Conner, he played 80% of snaps on Sunday. With Roethlisberger
done for the season, expect Pittsburgh to lean heavily on Conner.
It’s going to be tough sledding against most opponents as the
Steelers are now down to their third-string quarterback after
the concussion to Mason
Rudolph. Defenses will likely stack the box against the
running game but in the right matchup, Conner should still produce.
Alvin Kamara
saw his snap count fall to 69% in Week 5. This is normal fluctuation
for him; his low is 65% and his high is 88%, depending on game
flow and situation. Latavius Murray did get 9 touches, which
is more than Kamara owners want to see but not concerning moving
forward. Although he did not score in this game, Kamara was
effective and the scores will come.
Aaron Jones
posted his monster game (19-107-4, 7-75) on just 68% of the
snaps. If he can keep that sort of efficiency going he will
end up as a top-10 running back this season. It was interesting
that the Packers chose to give snaps to Tra
Carson (6-14; 4-18) when giving Jones a breather, rather
than rookie Dexter
Williams.
Josh Jacobs
saw his snaps jump to 68% (prior three weeks were 46-42-54).
He seems to finally be healthy and a focal point of the offense.
It may be too late to buy low, but his arrow is pointing up
behind a good offensive line.
Austin
Ekeler played 66% of snaps, even with Melvin Gordon returning.
While he only received 3 carries (Gordon had 12), he received
an incredible 16 targets, catching 15 for 86 yards. That sort
of target share is an anomaly, but it speaks to the fact that
the Chargers still want him involved in the offense, even with
Gordon back in the mix. His snap count percentage should trend
downward as Gordon gets fully into football shape, so after
that huge output in the passing game it might be wise to flip
Ekeler this week.
Melvin
Gordon played 46% of snaps. He was being eased into the
offense and that number will go up.
Jon Hilliman
played 64% of snaps for the Giants after Wayne
Gallman left with a concussion. He was ineffective, gaining
only 20 yards on 9 carries, but it is clear he is third on the
depth chart behind Saquon
Barkley and Gallman. If both cannot play in Week 6 against
the Patriots, Hilliman should get plenty of touches in a bad
matchup.
Devonta
Freeman saw his snap count percentage fall to 54%. Ito
Smith had 11 touches to Freeman’s 16. This is bad news for
those hoping Freeman could return to the elite echelon of running
backs. Either he no longer has the skill to be in that group
or the coaches are trying to protect him from injury. Either
way, he should be avoided as the Falcons running game is in
a free fall.
David
Montgomery’s snap counts fell from 69% in Week 4 to 52%
in Week 5. When he did get the ball, he was not very effective
(11-25-1) thanks to a weak offensive line.
Sony Michel
played only 49% of snaps, but he made them count against the
Redskins (16-91-1, 3-32). The fact that he received three targets
in the passing game is also notable, as he had only received
one target in the passing game during the first four weeks.
As long as he is effective on the ground, he can be started
in the right matchup, even only playing half the snaps.
Duke Johnson
played 40% of the snaps but was far more effective than Carlos
Hyde on his rushes (6.6 yards per carry, compared to Hyde’s
2.9). If the coaching staff ever decides to give Johnson more
carries, he could be usable as a flex option.
Each member of the Tampa Bay backfield played one-third of
the snaps (34%/33%/32%). Avoid all of them!
Jaylen
Samuels saw his snap share fall to 25% in Week 5. His high
usage in Week 4 seems to have been game-plan specific but his
early interception from the Wildcat formation may have doomed
his usage. You should use him cautiously, in only the right
kinds of matchups, until he is getting a higher number of snaps
weekly.
With the return of Damien
Williams, Darrel
Williams barely played and LeSean
McCoy played only 22% of snaps. When the Chiefs offense
gets rolling again, both McCoy and Damien could be usable flex
options but not until somebody is receiving a 50% snap share.
Reggie
Bonnafon’s snap share jumped to 17% in Week 5, and he also
produced (5-80-1). While it’s not very big usage, it is worth
noting since Ron Rivera has mentioned a desire to get McCaffrey
more rest during games.
Wide Receiver
Allen
Robinson (7-97-2) played 100% of the snaps. He has been
great regardless of the quarterback and if the Bears had a better
QB option, Robinson could be unstoppable.
Auden Tate
(3-26-1) also played 100% of the snaps. He will likely be replaced
in the starting lineup by A.J.
Green when he returns, but for as long as Green remains
out, Tate is viable.
Keenan Allen’s
lack of production (4-18) was not due to losing any snaps (99%)
of snaps. Too much time against DB Chris
Harris and a poor game from Philip
Rivers led to miniscule production from Allen.
Will Fuller’s
high snap percentage finally resulted in production - one of
the best games ever by a wide receiver (14-217-3). The output
will be volatile but both Fuller and Hopkins are solid starts
as they have been playing virtually every snap together all
season.
Mike Evans
played 97% of the Bucs’ snaps but finished with 0 catches. Ouch.
KeeSean
Johnson replaced Christian
Kirk in the Arizona offense and played 95% of the snaps.
He received 7 targets, catching 3 for 22 yards.
Diontae
Johnson saw his snaps jump to 92% in Pittsburgh, and saw
a team-high 8 targets. However, he was only able to catch 5
for 27 yards. This will likely be a trend while the Steelers
deal with subpar QB play.
Demarcus
Robinson again played over 90% of snaps, and again did very
little with his opportunity. Look for his role to be diminished
when Tyreek
Hill returns, particularly with Byron
Pringle outplaying him on Sunday.
Mike Williams
returned from injury and played 89% of snaps. He received 13
targets and caught 6 for 74 yards, an encouraging sign.
Geronimo
Allison played 86% of snaps with Davante
Adams sidelined. However, he only produced 2 receptions
for 28 yards. Keep in mind that none of the pass-catching options
for the Packers produced in this game.
Michael
Gallup returned and played 86% of the snaps, and received
14 targets (the same as Amari
Cooper) and caught 7 for 113 and a touchdown. He can be
started with confidence.
T.Y. Hilton
returned and looked healthy playing 83% of the snaps. While
he did not produce much (4-37) that was due to the Colts’ run-heavy
game plan. He should be good to go for Week 6.
D.J. Chark
appears to be a stud wide receiver. He played on 81% of snaps
and received 11 targets (8-164-2). He and Minshew have a great
connection making Chark a weekly starter.
Anthony
Miller played a season-high 78% of snaps and received 7
targets (4-52). Keep an eye on Miller’s usage, as he could quickly
become a valuable piece.
Cooper Kupp
played only 67% of the snaps and produced 9 catches for 117
yards and a touchdown on 17 targets. You can’t ever bench him.
Golden Tate
returned to play 67% of the snaps and also ran most of his routes
from the slot, kicking Sterling
Shepard to the outside. Tate had 6 targets (3-13). Better
days are likely ahead.
Marquise
Brown saw his snap count fall to 46% in Week 5, and received
only 5 targets (3-22-1). This was due to injuring his ankle
in the first quarter, but he did return after some time in the
locker room. He should be fine and could be a good buy-low candidate
this week.
Tight ends
Greg Olsen
played all the snaps but did not record a target. I suppose
this was related to the game plan, but is concerning nonetheless
for Olsen owners.
Will Dissly’s
snap count continued to rise in Week 5, up to 89%. Without Vannett
in town, Dissly is a weekly must-start at a weak TE position.
Gerald
Everett played 81% of the snaps and produced nicely (7-136).
Brandin Cooks
left this game with a concussion which allowed Sean McVay to
use more 2 TE sets.
Darren
Waller’s snap count fell to 78%, which was his first time
he was under 90% this season. Simultaneously, rookie Foster
Moreau played 62% of snaps, his highest on the season. Both
received 5 targets and produced similarly. This is a big concern
for Waller owners and should be monitored.
Dawson Knox
only recorded 2 catches for 12 yards, but he stayed involved
(5 targets) and played a season-high 72% of the snaps.
Vance
McDonald returned from his shoulder injury and played 62%
of the snaps. He caught all three of his targets for 34 yards.
Delanie
Walker stayed below 50% of snaps (44%), and caught only
1 pass for 10 yards. All Titans pass-catchers should be avoided.