The 2020 NFL Draft is behind us now and
that means the start of rookie drafts for dynasty leagues. This
year’s class is loaded with talent and the landing spots of many
of the top players were solid as well, meaning rookie picks are
going to be at a premium.
League scoring rules and roster configurations could certainly
change the shape of my picks below but for this mock I am going
to use a 12 team, 1 QB (non-superflex) half-point PPR setup with
standard starting lineup configurations.
As a general overview the running backs take the cake in terms
of landing spots and talent, although the wide receiver class
is a much deeper group. This means you should try getting one
of the big 5-7 RB’s in this class, because the position dries
up fairly quickly after that, whereas WR might go 15+ deep with
quality players.
In a 2QB or Superflex format both Joe
Burrow and Tua
Tagovailoa, and perhaps even Justin
Herbert, would go in the top 8 picks, but in 1QB leagues I
believe this class is too loaded at RB and WR to consider the
QBs first round guys.
For reference, zero tight ends would make my top 20 rookie list
this year. Without further ado…
The only RB taken in the first round of the NFL draft, Edwards-Helaire
(CEH) goes to one of the very best situations for a RB to succeed
in and with the best draft capital of any back this season, he's
certainly guaranteed a hefty workload from the start. CEH is one
of the best receiving back prospects of the past decade and lands
with a quarterback had the best passer rating in the league when
targeting RB. I’d expect CEH to split carries at the outset but
within a few weeks be the Chiefs primary RB and handle 15+ touches
per game. CEH should be a borderline fantasy RB1 in his first
NFL season, and continue that trend for the next several years.
My favorite of the rookie RB prospects, Taylor landed in a great
spot behind one of the league’s best offensive lines with an offense
that should be efficient, productive, and in many positive game
scripts. The only thing keeping Taylor from the top spot is the
Colts have a productive Marlon
Mack, and Taylor is still a bit of a question mark as a receiver.
While I expect Taylor to eventually be a workhorse, three-down
back, it may take till the second half of 2020 before that role
is fully engaged. I’d project Taylor as a mid-range RB2 for fantasy
purposes in 2020, with the long-term appeal of some RB1 seasons
looming down the road.
Dobbins is yet another back who landed in a great spot for his
dynasty appeal, as the Ravens are one of the most run-heavy teams
in the league, and the only real competition he has is a 30 year-old
veteran. While Mark
Ingram will probably begin the season with more carries, I
expect Dobbins to take the lead in backfield touches as the season
goes on. With Lamar
Jackson leading the offense, the run game should be extremely
efficient and Dobbins should flourish under a system that uses
more RPO’s than any other in the NFL. Dobbins was used in the
same manner quite a bit in college. Much like Taylor, I expect
a RB2 season in 2020 but solid RB1 seasons down the road once
Ingram moves on.
Akers takes the place of Todd
Gurley who recently signed with the Atlanta Falcons. While
Akers is not on the same prospect level as Gurley, Akers is just
as athletic, younger, and healthier. The Rams offensive line remains
a big question mark, but Akers had one of the worst lines in college
football and was still productive so we at least know he can manage
in difficult situations. With a creative play-caller, minimal
proven competition, and a passing game to keep defenses honest,
Akers should accumulate solid stats even if he is not always hyper-efficient.
I’d expect a low to mid-range RB2 season from Akers in 2020 with
the potential for better in coming years as the line improves
in front of him.
The last of the “Big 5”, Swift was a favorite in the fantasy community
to be the 1.01 this year, but others jumped ahead of him due to
landing spots, although Swift’s landing spot was not exactly bad
either. In Detroit, Swift may form a committee with Kerryon
Johnson on a team that leans pass-heavy behind Matthew
Stafford. Of the big 5 RB’s, I would say Swift may have the
least predictable and perhaps most questionable offense around him,
which pushes him down below the other four RBs. That being said,
the spot is still solid and Swift’s talent and draft capital means
he will likely rise to the top and be very productive eventually.
I expect a low-end RB2 season from Swift this year with the optimism
for some high-end RB2 seasons ahead as Detroit gets its offense
and coaching fine-tuned.
My pre-draft WR1 for rookies, the Cowboys shocked the world taking
Lamb, as they already have two young WR threats in Amari
Cooper and Michael
Gallup. While many see Lamb’s landing spot as a detriment
(too many mouths to feed), I believe Lamb’s talent is too hard
to ignore and opportunities (180+ vacated targets from 2019) will
come his way right out of the gate. Lamb may take several years
to produce true Alpha WR numbers, but he should play significant
snaps immediately and be deployed as both a slot and outside receiver
for the Cowboys. With a great young QB, an elite run game, and
other talented receivers taking the defenses attention, Lamb should
be very efficient and have his share of huge games, even though
the consistent volume may not be there for a year or so. For 2020,
I project Lamb as a mid-range WR3 for fantasy, with many WR2 and
even WR1 seasons down the road for this young stud. Consider Lamb
a bargain at this range, as many years he would be a top-2 rookie
pick.
Reagor was a controversial prospect, with many in the fantasy
community absolutely loving him and others ranking him middle
of the pack. However, it’s hard to argue his landing spot. The
Eagles have aging and injury-prone vets (Alshon
Jeffery, DeSean
Jackson) and not much else in the pipeline. Given the teams
need and the draft capital they spent on Reagor (1st round), it
would be a shock if he wasn’t forced touches as early as Week
1 of the regular season. An explosive athlete, Reagor is capable
of splash plays, but has the body type to be much more than an
occasional deep threat. While Reagor does carry some risk, he
was not super productive in college and had inconsistent hands,
his upside is through the roof and landed in a situation that
could maximize his abilities right away. I’d project a mid-range
WR3 season from Reagor in year 1 with the potential for more depending
on the health of Jeffery and Jackson.
Jefferson to the Vikings is an interesting spot. On one hand,
he could easily finish second on the team in targets this season,
as the depth chart is barren behind Adam
Thielen given the departure of Stefon
Diggs. On the other hand, I see Jefferson’s skill set as redundant
to Thielen’s and wonder how exactly he will deployed, as he flourished
(and projects) as a big slot guy, which is mostly where Thielen
spends his time. Jefferson could be a consistent source of targets
and catches, even if his ceiling in year one is relatively low.
For the future, Jefferson could eventually take over as the team’s
top receiver once Thielen moves on or begins his decline. Consider
Jefferson a very safe pick towards the back-end of the first round
this year, with WR3 type numbers likely coming due to expected
volume.
The landing spot for Jeudy is less than ideal, as the Broncos
already had a true alpha-type WR in Courtland
Sutton, a hyper-athletic TE in Noah
Fant, and used two more draft picks on very respected prospects
KJ Hamler (WR)
and Albert
Okwuegbunam (TE), in the 2nd and 4th rounds respectively.
While this is great news for Drew
Lock and the Broncos, it leaves many fantasy owners scratching
their heads as to what the future holds for Jeudy. Simply put,
picking Jeudy is a bet on his talent more than the situation.
While the other weapons in Denver are all athletic and “big play
guys”, Jeudy is the only one that profiles as more of a target-hog/possession
receiver. As a guy that thrives getting open and running great
routes, Jeudy could be the first read in many passing plays, especially
with the defenses focused more on Sutton on the outside. Until
we see exactly how this offense functions you are gambling a bit
on Jeudy’s short term upside, but his talent is undeniable and
for dynasty leagues this means he is a worthy investment. I look
for high-end WR4 numbers in Jeudy’s first season and better in
a year when he fully adjusts to the league.
Mims did not gain a lot of attention as a top prospect until the
Senior Bowl and Combine, where he dominated and was looked at
as a potential a first round pick. There are questions about why
Mims never really excelled in college, but given his raw measurables
(6’3’’, 210, 4.38 40) Mims has the potential to be a true NFL
WR1. As far as his landing spot, it’s nice, working with a young
and super talented QB in Sam
Darnold who is not afraid to throw balls up for grabs to his
big targets. As for competition, the Jets other main targets are
Jamison Crowder,
who is a solid but unspectacular possession/slot guy and newly
signed Breshad
Perriman, who actually has a similar skillset to Mims, but
has been very mediocre so far in his NFL career. As a 2nd round
pick, Mims will likely be expected to contribute right away and
if he catches on, could be the Jets go-to guy within a year. I
would not expect any sort of consistency in year one but would
not be surprised to see a few dominant weeks and 7+ touchdowns
as the team’s top redzone target. Mims will be tough to start
with any confidence most weeks this season but could be a long
term fantasy WR2 for many years if he and Darnold can get on the
same page relatively fast.
Higgins was viewed as surefire round 1 pick early in the pre-draft
process, but slipped a bit as he did not participate in the Combine
as word spread of him being just an average athlete. As the first
pick in the 2nd round, Higgins landed in a great spot, especially
for long-term success, as he will be paired with Joe
Burrow and could develop chemistry together through the next
few seasons. Higgins best skill is going up to get jump balls
and contested catches, meaning he could make an impact as a redzone
threat as soon as this season. The only short-term problem, other
than the normal rookie learning curve, is Higgins will be behind
A.J. Green
(who he’s sometimes compared to) and Tyler
Boyd, who is a solid and underappreciated possession receiver.
He’ll also be in competition for targets with Joe
Mixon, John
Ross and Auden
Tate, with a rookie QB throwing them all the ball. For 2020
I don’t expect a whole lot from Higgins other than the occasional
TD, but as soon as 2021 I could see him making a real splash and
put up low-end WR2 numbers as Green likely moves on.
Vaughn was not in my top 8 rookie RB’s before the NFL draft but
it is hard to argue about his potential as he landed with what
is expected to be, one of the league’s most productive and efficient
offenses. Vaughn is a jack of all trades/master of none type back,
who has limits in his game but does enough all-around to make
him stick on an NFL roster for a long time. Vaughn can run between
the tackles, outside, and catch passes, he just does not have
a lot of “juice” or “wiggle” in his game. The good news is that
his only real competition for touches in the backfield is Ronald
Jones, who has been mostly a bust thus far and the current
coaching staff does not seem enamored with. With Tom
Brady on board and a plethora of talented receivers to throw
to (Evans, Godwin, Gronk, etc.) the chances of any significant
defensive attention being placed on the running game is unlikely
and there should be plenty of scoring opportunities with what
this team shows on paper. While I personally would not advocate
Vaughn as a long-term hold/buy in dynasty leagues, his short-term
production could be massive and thus, worth the investment to
me at this point in the draft. Look for Vaughn to put up RB2 numbers
this season as long as he can show enough to earn 12+ touches
a game, which I think is well within his reach.
Just Missed:Joe
Burrow (QB Bengals), Tua
Tagovailoa (QB, Dolphins), Henry
Ruggs III (WR Raiders)
