An emerging concept with respect to putting together your fantasy
team in a redraft league is trying to pair up your early selections
(starters) with players who have ideal matchups during the weeks
that your projected starters are on a bye. The purpose of this article,
however, is not to propose this as a strategy, but to take the concept
further and identify what specific bench players should be paired
with some of the most prominent starting players in the game today.
Before we dig into that on a week-by-week basis, let me offer a
reminder about a couple of things.
First, we’re talking primarily about players in the 13 to
20 range with respect to quarterbacks and tight ends and the 25
to 40 range with respect to running backs and wide receivers. Players
whose values are higher will likely be drafted as starters and won’t
be available as players to come off your bench.
Second, any identification of players is based on which defenses
got exploited in 2014 by specific skill position players. For example,
nobody gave up more fantasy points to quarterbacks in 2014 than
the Philadelphia Eagles. The Saints and Raiders led in fantasy points
surrendered to running backs. Wide receivers and tight ends performed
best against the Eagles and Colts, respectively. And, while 2015
defenses won’t look exactly like 2014 defenses, massive improvements
don’t come overnight or, more specifically, over the course
of an offseason. Still, some adjustments will be made based on the
offseason changes that have occurred. With those things in mind,
every ideal bye week replacement player fits within a certain range
with respect to preseason value and will face a bottom-five defense
in terms of points allowed certain positions in 2014.
The league is easing us into the bye week madness this year with
only the Titans and Patriots on bye in Week 4. That means Rob Gronkowski
is the only prominent player to be subbed for. Here’s our
suggestion if Gronk is one of your draftees.
TE: Josh
Hill (vs. DAL): Games between the Saints and Cowboys
over the past decade have produced lots of yards/scoring, and only
the Colts were worse in terms of allowing fantasy points to tight
ends in 2014. That makes Hill the perfect bye week filler for Gronk.
And the pace quickens. Aside from Peterson, none of the players
on bye in Week Five are bona fide fantasy studs, but there are over
a half dozen starters to be swapped out.
QB: Robert
Griffin III (@ ATL): I fully understand the risks that
come with drafting Griffin, but this is an ideal matchup for him.
A generally soft Falcons pass rush and pass defense combined with
indoor conditions should allow Griffin to enjoy one of his finest
games of the season, making him a great pairing with Newton.
RB: Doug
Martin/Charles
Sims (vs JAX): While the Jaguars stopped the pass fairly
well in 2014, they struggled to curtail the run, ranking in the
bottom five in fantasy points allowed to RBs. That, combined with
the fact that Martin/Sims are at home, make that duo the best possible
scenario if you’re trying to find someone to fill Peterson’s shoes.
Martin is no Peterson, but his matchup is worthy of making him Peterson’s
understudy on draft day.
WR: Allen
Robinson (@ TB): On the flip side of that same game is
the porous Tampa Bay pass defense going up against a player many
feel is going to have a breakout season. If you’ve got Benjamin
or Marshall as one of your starting receivers, Robinson would make
a tremendous amount of sense as the guy to back them up.
TE: Eric
Ebron (vs. ARI): Another season, another opportunity
to pick on the Cardinals’ woeful defense against tight ends. Hey,
at least this past season the Colts were worse. Ebron looks to get
more involved in the offense, and Week Five is the best bet as to
when that will take place. Expect starter-like numbers.
Did you snag Dez Bryant or Mike Evans in
the early rounds? Target Boldin late as a bye week fill-in.
Not a lot of big names will take off in Week Six, but a couple of
big receivers will leave shoes to fill, in addition to likely starting
quarterback Romo.
QB: Carson
Palmer (@ PIT): We all tend to value the Pittsburgh defense
more highly than we should, based on past glories, but truth be
told, the Steelers’ secondary has been vulnerable for years, and
they don’t have a particularly good pass rush, either. Enter Carson
Palmer and the Cardinals, who will be forced to throw often in an
effort to keep up with Pittsburgh’s high-powered offense. Palmer’s
dislike for the Steelers dates back to when he got injured against
them in an AFC playoff game. He’ll be highly motivated in this one,
making him a great guy to pair with Romo on rosters this fall.
WR: Anquan
Boldin (vs. BAL): The stars are aligned for Boldin to
be a perfect roster fit if you also draft Bryant or Evans. The Ravens
were surprisingly soft versus the pass last year and have lost a
starting safety (Matt Elam) for the season already. Add to that
the fact that Boldin will be up against a former team and he becomes
the solution for this week’s scramble.
The need for bye week “gold” in Week Seven is prominent
with some of the better offensive teams in the league sitting out.
Here are suggestions for every position across the board.
QB: Alex
Smith (vs. PIT): I hate to pick on the Steelers again,
but they present the best matchup for quarterbacks for a second
week in a row. Enter Smith, who plays better at home and will be
forced to throw plenty as the Steelers remain one of the hardest
teams in the league to run the ball against, particularly in the
red zone. If you have Rodgers or Manning as your top signal caller,
Smith would be an outstanding late-round pick to hold the clipboard.
RB: Tevin
Coleman/Devonta
Freeman (@ TEN): The Falcons don’t project to run the
ball well in 2015, but a matchup with the Titans (third worst defense
against the run in 2014) should be just what the doctor ordered.
The Titans defense really didn’t make any noteworthy additions in
the offseason either, so Coleman and/or Freeman make a nice “golden”
duo.
WR: Jarvis
Landry (vs. HOU): The Texans defend tight ends very well
(or did last year) but struggled mightily in trying to shut down
skilled receivers out of the slot. Landry will make his living there
this season quite a bit and a home date against Houston makes him
an ideal replacement for the likes of Green, Nelson, Thomas, Cobb,
Jeffery and Sanders.
TE: Austin
Seferian-Jenkins (@WAS): If you drafted Bennett as your
starting TE, strongly consider adding Seferian-Jenkins as the “backup”.
This is a strong matchup for him, and Jameis Winston will be looking
for his tight end early and often in road games for most of the
season.
No high-profile quarterbacks are off in Week Eight, but some big-name
RBs and a couple of likely starting WRs get to take a breather,
so let’s address those two positions.
RB: Rashad
Jennings/Shane
Vereen (@ NO): Inside the confines of the Superdome,
a shootout appears likely, even if the Saints are indeed going to
try to implement a more balanced offensive attack this season. No
one allowed more fantasy points to RBs in 2014 than New Orleans,
and look for that trend to continue in 2015 with Jennings and Vereen
reaping the benefits. They are good bye week replacements for the
likes of McCoy, Murray and Morris.
WR: Vincent
Jackson (@ATL): Jackson was targeted 13 times versus
Atlanta in the Buccaneers’ second game with the Falcons last
season. Sure, that was with Josh McCown at QB, but the Bucs’
big receivers match up well with the smallish Falcons secondary.
If you’re drafting Matthews or DeSean Jackson as your No.
2 WR, go ahead and grab Vincent Jackson a round or two later to
fill in for them in Week Eight.
Not quite as impactful as Week Seven, but Week Nine will offer up
challenges replacing a top-3 QB, two top-5 RBs, a couple of starting
WRs and a top-3 TE.
QB: Philip
Rivers (vs. CHI): Getting Rivers will cost you more than
all other backups, as he’s probably the cream of the crop amongst
projected non-starters. That being said, coupling him with Russell
Wilson makes a great deal of sense, given a home date with the Bears
on Monday night of Week Nine. John Fox may improve the Bears defense,
but it’s hard to think they’ll be vastly improved from what they
were last season (bottom five in fantasy points allowed to QBs).
RB: Giovani
Bernard (vs. CLE): Cleveland has the secondary to make
life miserable for wide receivers, which creates opportunities in
the passing game for RBs and TEs. Enter Bernard in what might be
an ideal game to give Jeremy Hill a bit of a rest. If the Bengals
get up big at home as would be expected, Bernard might just have
his most productive day of the season. For that reason, he’s worth
stashing on the roster if you have Charles or Lynch.
WR: Julian
Edelman/Brandon
LaFell (vs. WAS): Every year, Tom Brady has a couple
of games in which he shreds poor pass defenses for monster numbers.
Look for Washington to try to take Gronkowski out of the picture,
thus exposing its weak secondary to one-on-one matchups with New
England’s WRs. Edelman may end up a fantasy starter for someone
in your league, but LaFell should still be available for pickup
in the middle rounds should you have already picked Calvin Johnson.
TE: Owen
Daniels (@ IND): This one’s easy. We mentioned
earlier that the Colts were even worse last year in terms of stopping
TEs than Arizona (no small feat). Well, here’s Peyton Manning
versus Andrew Luck in a game that could top 1,000 yards. Looks like
Daniels’ strongest matchup of the year to me and a perfect
complement to the resting Travis Kelce.
Losing Luck or Jones will sting no doubt, but here are some suggestions
on replacing either/or.
QB: Ryan
Tannehill (@ PHI): I’ve been waiting throughout the entirety
of this article to pick on the Eagles, and now the opportunity arises.
Tannehill is a borderline starter in 12-team leagues, so getting
him won’t be cheap, but this matchup looks to be his finest of the
season. He’ll reward you here if you have to sit Luck or Ryan. The
numbers from the Chip Kelly era of Eagles football bear that out.
WR: Brian
Quick/Kenny
Britt (vs. CHI): I’m swinging for the fences here, but
playing indoors versus the aforementioned Chicago secondary is too
hard to pass up. If you have Julio Jones or Hilton on your roster,
take a late-round flier on one of these guys.
It’s going to take 11 weeks for some guys to see their first
rest. When these big names do take time for that, here are our recommendations
for bye week sustainability.
QB: Blake
Bortles (vs. TEN): Brees, Roethlisberger and Manning
are iron men, so you probably only need one week out of your backup
if you’ve got one of them in tow. Why not Bortles? He’s at home
versus one of the worst defenses of the past half-decade, and he’ll
have had 10 weeks to jell with a still young/inexperienced receiving
corps. Plus, he’ll come cheap at your draft.
RB: Joique
Bell/Ameer
Abdullah (vs. OAK): Oakland certainly looks better than
in years past on the offensive side of the ball, but on defense
very little has changed in terms of being able to prevent running
backs from racking up big fantasy numbers. Add to that the fact
that Detroit will be at home in this game and you’ve got big performances
forthcoming. So, if you draft the top-shelf Bell, drafting the other
Bell is a good idea as well.
WR: Donte
Moncrief (@ATL): Moncrief will never be a PPR monster,
but if you’re looking for a week that he might break out for
two or three long receptions and at least one touchdown, this is
a great spot. Nobody’s going to fill Brown’s or Beckham’s
shoes, but Moncrief might come close in a sneaky sort of way.
As was noted in last
year’s edition of this article, I wouldn’t normally
encourage anyone to do much beyond reading an article and gleaning
from it a thing or two to use in their team construction. However,
in this case, let me make one final suggestion: Print this article
and bring it with you to your draft. As you draft any of the prominent
players above, write the name of their ideal bye week replacements
down and grab those players later in the draft. Again, you’ll
be glad you did. Good luck in your drafts later this month!
