We’ll talk about what surprised us most about the first month
of the season, but first, let’s just try to digest what took
place this past weekend. As always, there were rarely any dull moments…
Biggest fantasy storyline: Todd Gurley
has finished as the RB6, RB2, RB1 and RB2 to start the season.
The Beat Goes On, West-Coast Style
One left coast team continued to impress on Sunday, while the
other trended towards depression. The Los Angeles Rams continue
to shatter even the most optimistic of preseason expectations,
and while Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods were held in check by
the Cowboys secondary, no one could contain Todd Gurley once again
(215 total yards, 1 TD). Besides Gurley, the other Ram star of
the day was kicker, Greg Zuerlein, who booted in an astounding
seven field goals. If Zuerlein is still available in your league,
it’s time to add him…especially if you’re still
holding out hope for Justin Tucker this season. As for Gurley,
his transformation from last year remains the lead story in fantasy
football through four weeks.
Speaking of transformation, what has happened to the Oakland
Raiders the past two weeks? The latter of the two left coast franchises
laid another huge egg on Sunday as Amari Cooper was held without
a fantasy point for the second straight week and Marshawn Lynch
once again rushed for less than 20 yards. I know the boys in silver
and black were up against a dynamic Denver defense and Derek Carr
left the game in the third quarter, but it’s officially
time to worry about this offense. If only they could bump up the
November 19th game vs. the Patriots to the here and now.
A Devastating Loss in Minnesota
I am not a big fan of Richard Sherman, but he’s right about
player injuries and fantasy football. The real life implications
of an injury such as the one suffered by Dalvin Cook on Sunday
far supersedes the “fantasy impact”. As such, here’s
wishing Cook all the best. He was off to a great start and I’m
sure he’ll be an impact RB when he returns next year. All
that said, this is a fantasy football website and we have to dissect
the impact of Cook’s injury from a fantasy angle. Much like
David Johnson, no one is going to step in and duplicate what Cook
was doing in Minnesota. Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon might
prove to be worthy flex play in the weeks to come, but that’s
about it. The loss of Cook also means the value of other RBs just
went up as the pool of truly elite runners just got even smaller.
Look for the Vikings to throw the ball more with Cook gone and
that means a continued breakout year for the almost-impossible-to-cover
Stefon Diggs.
Houston, We Have No More Problems
When was the last time Houston had a quarterback with the potential
that Deshaun
Watson possesses? Hint: They were called the Oilers and it
was before many of the people that tune in to FFToday were born.
Watson sort of “broke out” vs. New England, but his success in
that game was dismissed some based on the Patriots defense being
so atrocious. There’s no dismissing what he did vs. the Titans
on Sunday, though. Watson accounted for 5 touchdowns (4 passing,
1 rushing) and elevated the stat lines of both Lamar
Miller (131 yards, 2 TDs) and DeAndre
Hopkins (107 yards, 1 TD). Miller and Hopkins are the focal
points of the offense in a way that is similar to what Pittsburgh
does with Le’Veon Bell and Antonio
Brown. While neither guy measures up to what Bell and Brown
can do, both can be top 10 at their positions rather easily moving
forward if Watson’s progression continues. I’d like to see one
more multi-TD, 250-yard+ performance from Watson before declaring
him to be a QB1, but I’d be surprised if that doesn’t come really
soon. The return of Will
Fuller doesn’t hurt matters either as Hopkins now has a proper
complement to lessen the burden on him. Arrow up. On all Texans.
Period.
New York, New York
Just as a review, the New York Giants made the playoffs last
season. They have a bona fide superstar (real and fantasy) at
wide receiver in Odell Beckham Jr. They have a two-time Super
Bowl winning quarterback. The crosstown Jets were supposed to
possess the worst offense in NFL history in 2017. They have a
bunch of nobodies at wide receiver and the ultimate journeyman
(Josh McCown) at quarterback. So, why are the Jets scoring points
and sitting at 2-2 while the Giants continue to be winless? It’s
pretty simple. One team can run the ball and one cannot. Bilal Powell and Elijah McGuire piled up 256 yards rushing Sunday verses
a Jaguars team that had stymied the Ravens’ rushing attack
just a week prior. Meanwhile, the Giants are averaging less than
60 yards a game rushing, even with Eli Manning finding a way to
rush for 22 and a TD on Sunday. Until the Giants fix that problem
(and we’re not holding our breath), consider them a wasteland
at RB while there’s reason to believe in Bilal Powell again.
The Big Apple just isn’t what it was projected to be in
2017.
The Bell Finally Tolls…
In a fantasy football world turned upside down in many ways,
it was nice to see something that looked familiar and comforting
on Sunday. Le’Veon Bell touched the ball 39 times, turning
those touches into 186 yards and a couple of touchdowns. The heavy
workload and the emergence of JuJu Smith-Schuster in the redzone
meant another quiet week for Antonio Brown whose took his frustrations
out on the Gatorade cooler. With David Johnson out for at least
another eight weeks and Ezekiel Elliott not out of the woods yet
in terms of a possible suspension, Bell is really the premiere
RB in fantasy football moving forward with apologies to Kareem Hunt and Todd Gurley. Look for the Steelers to continue running
the ball early and often, making Bell great, but altering the
consistency of Brown and the passing game.
Missing In Action: Wide Receivers
In all my years of playing and tracking fantasy football stats,
I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a week in which no WRs
reached 20 points or more using traditional performance-based
scoring for the position. Jordy Nelson and Devin Funchess topped
the list of successful producers, but each fell short of 80 yards
receiving to go along with their multiple scores. In fact, only
1 WR topped 120+ yards in Week 4 (Keenan Allen) and only four
others topped 100 yards total. With more and more RBs getting
in on receptions and receiving yards in 2017, truly dynamic performances
by WRs are dwindling. Will the trend continue into October and
beyond? We’ll report back next week and try to answer that
question further. In the meantime, leagues that allow a RB in
the flex spot are seeing more and more tagged for that role than
ever before.
Touchdowns in Tampa
We’ve noted some of the NFL’s most inept offenses
the past few weeks with the Dolphins, Ravens, and Raiders (of
late) topping that list. So, how about an offense that looks like
it’s ready to be top five and soar on a weekly basis? Enter
Tampa Bay as Jameis Winston’s 344 yards vs. the Giants included
a TD to his stud WR Mike Evans, and two TDs to tight ends, Cameron Brate and rookie O.J. Howard. All of the skill position players
on this team are in the prime of their careers sans DeSean Jackson,
but he still flies down the field like a guy in his mid-20s. The
Bucs will get to sprinkle in a little Doug Martin this upcoming
week as he returns from a suspension and his presence should allow
the offense to expand further. To make matters even better, Tampa
Bay will play the Patriots on Thursday night. Best advice we can
offer regarding that game? Start em’ all. From Winston to
Brate and everyone in between.
Soap Opera in Seattle
It’s starting to feel like we have a weekly update from
the Pacific Northwest every Tuesday morning at this point. Just
when we thought we had the RB situation figured out, Chris Carson
injures his ankle and will miss significant time if not the remainder
of the season. So, who is going to step up and fill Carson’s
shoes? Eddie Lacy? He looked decent Sunday night in limited action.
Thomas Rawls? Too small a sample size this year to guess on that.
How about J.D. McKissic (65 yards, 2 TDs)? Did anybody know who
he even was 36 hours ago? Maybe Russell Wilson will just throw
the ball a lot. After all, he changed the complexion of many a
fantasy game Sunday night throwing for a touchdown with less than
2 minutes to go and up by three touchdowns already. Watching that
unfold was horrifying for anyone playing against him. Stay tuned.
Maybe someone will emerge out of this mess and become a solid
RB2. That’s a big maybe.
Doctor Jeckyll and Mr. Kelce
There were several aspects of Monday night's Kansas City-Washington
game that were noteworthy. Terrelle Pryor finally made an appearance
in the end zone. Kareem Hunt ran for over 100 yards (again) and
Alex Smith continued playing more like a QB1 for rather than being
the career backup that he's always been pegged as being. But,
the biggest takeaway was the performance of Travis Kelce (7-111-1),
who apparently is set to play a huge role in fantasy football
this season...at least on the even weeks. Weeks 2 and 4 have seen
Kelce produce like a player worthy of an early second round pick.
Weeks 1 and 3 have seen him shrink in value. So, what's the truth
about Kelce? When you add the numbers up at the end of the year,
he'll be up there with Rob Gronkowski. The path to those numbers
may just be maddening in terms of consistent production.
Biggest Story of the First Four Weeks…
Wrapping up, we look back on the first quarter of the season
and wonder what storyline has made the biggest impact on fantasy
football. David Johnson's injury is certainly a contender as he
was the consensus top fantasy player coming into this season.
The emergence of rookie running backs like Kareem Hunt and Leonard Fournette have been huge. But, we'll go back to our opening paragraph
and proclaim Todd Gurley's resurrection from the abyss as the
season's biggest story to date. What will define the month of
October moving forward? Prediction - keep your eyes on Tampa Bay
and Houston...and of course, since they can't stop anyone, the
points should continue to flow from New England as well.
That's a wrap for Week 4. See you back here next Tuesday morning.
Until then...