In the weeks leading up to any fantasy football draft, discussion
of top three to four picks is common. Less common, however, is what
to do if you find yourself stuck in the middle of each round. Last
preseason, we examined “picking
at the turn”. This time around, those “picking in the middle”
will get their day. The term “middle” will be defined as picks 5
through 8 in a 12-team redraft league. Let’s dig in with the specifics
as they apply to the upcoming 2018 season.
First Three Rounds:
Value in the middle of Round 1 this season should be ideal. The
suspension of Mark Ingram (4 games) has pushed Alvin Kamara into
the upper tier of running backs, especially in PPR leagues. Kamara
is a solid option for pick No.6 or 7, but it you’re picking
fifth, you are in the conversation for a different RB or possibly
Antonio Brown. If your league allows you to start three or even
four WRs, Brown is definitely an excellent option especially if
your league goes RB-happy with the first 4-6 picks.
I think the drop-off at running back is so severe in Round 2, however,
that Brown would be the only wide receiver worth taking in the middle
of Round 1, even if your lineup requirements are WR-friendly. There
are simply too many question marks surrounding every other top tier
WR. So, the recommendation is to find your favorite RB from a group
that includes Kamara, Saquon Barkley, Leonard Fournette (non-PPR
only), Kareem Hunt, and Melvin Gordon. David Johnson could also
be in play if Brown is taken early. Using Fantasy Football Calculator’s
current ADP numbers, we’re going to pretend that the No.6
pick is ours and that both Brown and Johnson are gone. That would
make Alvin Kamara the perfect target for the pick.
Round 2 is definitely a round for taking a wide receiver if indeed
running back was the first pick. There’s simply not enough firepower
at the RB position after Dalvin
Cook (he will be gone by the early 2nd round at the latest).
That means guys like Michael
Thomas, A.J.
Green, Keenan
Allen, and Davante
Adams are up for consideration. When attempting to discern between
similar options, my rule of thumb has always been to look at the
quarterback. Two surefire Hall of Famers, one possible Hall of Famer…and
Andy
Dalton. That eliminates A.J. Green. And, since ADP suggests
Thomas will be gone prior to 2.05, Allen and Adams look like the
two most prominent targets. Finally, if you took Brown in the first,
don’t reach for a running back here. The value will be better in
Round 3. So, based on our No.6 draft position (which would be No.7
in the even rounds) ADP suggests Adams would be available here.
He’ll make a nice complement to Kamara giving us two primary options
on very good offensive teams.
Finally, in Round 3, you should grab the best available player from
a group that includes RBs, WRs, and TEs. If two wide receivers (say
Brown and Allen) were picked during the first two rounds, RB almost
certainly has to be the choice here assuming your best option isn’t
LeSean McCoy, who comes with too much risk to be a RB1. Based on
volume, Jerick McKinnon, Joe Mixon, and Christian McCaffrey would
be ideal options, but all three could be taken, even by 3.05. In
PPR leagues that will be the case almost certainly, which brings
us back to our initial premise…which is, it probably isn’t
a good ideal to pick two WRs to begin a draft this season. And,
since the RBs in Round 2 don’t represent good value, taking
one in the middle of Round 1 is better than taking even the great
Antonio Brown. Having processed all of that, and if the three “Ms”
(McCaffrey, Mixon, McKinnon) are all gone, the choice becomes clear.
Adam Thielen, T.Y. Hilton, and Doug Baldwin represent the most bang
for the buck. Guys like Derrick Henry and Alex Collins simply don’t
factor into the passing game enough to be picked mid-third. Based
on ADP, Thielen is a great target here for our mid-round selection.
That would leave us with this foundation after three rounds…
The foundation laid in the first three rounds would then allow for
some gambles in rounds 4-8. Depending on how far quarterbacks fall
in your draft, guys like Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson would
be worthy of consideration as early as the fourth, but the recommendation
here is that if you only have one running back after three rounds
and are required to start at least two, RB in the middle of the
fourth makes the most sense.
The previously mentioned Henry and Collins represent good value
here as do Kenyan Drake and Jay Ajayi. If however, you were fortunate
enough to get McCaffrey, Mixon, or McKinnon in the third (unlikely,
but possible), you can balance out the two positions by obtaining
a second WR. Demaryius Thomas, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Alshon Jeffery
represent possible targets but I tend to prefer the player whose
career is on the upswing, so Smith-Schuster would be the most intriguingprospect.
Sticking with our No.6 pick theme, though, and assuming ADP goes
basically to script, RB needs to be the choice and Kenyan Drake
appears to be most versatile of the options. One other wildcard
to factor in would be Zach
Ertz as an early tight end selection should other options
fall through. Picks 5 through 8 aren’t likely going to give you
an opportunity to grab a top tier player in the prior round as
both Gronk and Travis
Kelce represent value at the 2/3 turn. Ertz would represent
value here.
Rounds 5 and 6 are optimal rounds for choosing your quarterback.
Assuming two running backs have been acquired, guys like Tom
Brady, Russell Wilson, Deshaun
Watson, and Cam
Newton are going to be viable options. Watson’s ADP has been
soaring forward all summer, so I think he’ll ultimately be gone
before the mid-fifth, but both Wilson and Brady represent ideal
value. If you have a preference, don’t get greedy and try to get
him in the sixth round. Unless you’re playing with highly QB-phobic
league members, neither guy will still be there at that time.
Round Six would then be a time to find your tight end if the position
is mandatory or a time to bolster the RB position further. WR
is such a deep position that with two solid guys already in the
fold, that position be addressed better in Rounds 7/8 For the
sake of not neglecting a starting position too long, however,
let’s pretend that QB-TE is the right call here for our No.6 offering.
Give me Russell Wilson and Evan
Engram.
Picking a third RB and a third WR in Rounds 7/8 now becomes vital.
The third RB should be a player in a fairly stable situation given
that he’s got to still be getting carries when the bye weeks hit.
WRs taken in these rounds should be guys with upside who can explode
from time to time. Examples include (at RB): Marshawn Lynch, Tevin
Coleman, Isaiah
Crowell, and (at WR): Devin
Funchess, Corey
Davis, Robby
Anderson, and/or Sammy
Watkins. Using our ADP tool, a couple of realistic choices
here would be Lynch and Anderson. So, the picks in rounds 4-8
look like this:
How individual owners approach the later rounds in a redraft depends
largely on broader theories of draft strategy as opposed to where
you are picking specifically. If you’ve followed the mid-round
picking blueprint to this point, you’ve got your starting QB and
TE picked out and you’ve got 3 RBs and WRs in tow. That “balanced”
foundation should allow you to target a mixture of youth/rookies
and maybe a few steady veterans to round out your roster. Players
I like toward the end of the draft include QB Alex
Smith, RB Chris
Carson, RB Matt
Breida, WR Marquise
Goodwin, WR Kenny
Stills and TE Charles
Clay.
Picking from the middle of a re-draft can be a huge advantage
for you. It gives you ample time between each pick to consider
how best to assemble the team you hope will lead you to a late-December
championship whereas picking from the turn requires you to fill
two roster spots in a matter of moments. The exact science of
picking in the “middle” varies from year to year,
but it appears beginning your foundation with a running back in
Round 1 will likely work best for most leagues in 2018. Bottom
line: Embrace your draft position and have a plan as to how best
to exploit the advantage that it can be. Good luck in your drafts!
