Notes:
- Green highlight indicates plus matchup (top eight)
- Red highlight indicates negative matchup (bottom eight)
Bengals @ Titans
- (Green) Line: TEN -3.5 Total: 47.0
Passing
Game Thoughts: Forget about style points for a moment
and think about this -- the last time the Bengals won a playoff
game it was over the Houston Oilers... nearly six years before
Joe Burrow was born. With that out of the way, let’s acknowledge
that it was probably tougher than it should’ve been against
a middling Raiders club that made the playoffs by winning their
final four games by a combined 12 points. Burrow was solid in
his postseason debut but not spectacular, completing 24 of 34
passes for 244 yards and 2 TDs, though he avoided big mistakes,
unlike counterpart Derek Carr.
As he has been for much of his rookie year, Ja’Marr Chase
was the star offensively, hauling in nine of his 12 targets for
116 yards. In a new wrinkle, he also ran three times for 23 yards,
exceeding his regular season total of 21 yards. While Chase continued
his strong play from down the stretch, Tee Higgins scuffled in
his playoff debut, making just one catch for 10 yards -- both
of which represented his lowest output to date. Veteran Tyler
Boyd posted a 4-26-1 line in the win; he was also on the receiving
end of the controversial TD that came after the officials had
blown their whistle, which should’ve resulted in the down
being replayed.
Tennessee finished the year ranked 25th in the NFL in pass defense
at 245.2 yards per game allowed. The week off should allow their
pass rush to be rested and ready to go after they ended the year
with 43 sacks, which tied for ninth. Despite Higgins’ struggles,
all three wideouts and Burrow remain quality options this Saturday.
In addition, C.J. Uzomah (6-64-1), who has been a fringe choice
for much of the season, has been targeted at least six times in
five of his last six games and is a decent play.
TEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.10
TEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.31
TEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.2
TEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.28
Running Game Thoughts: Aside from Higgins, it was Joe Mixon that
had the most disappointing day statistically against the Raiders,
managing just 48 yards on his 17 carries (2.8 YPC). He did add
28 yards on four receptions, but it was still a middling effort
versus a Las Vegas squad that wasn’t among the league’s
best. Tennessee was, however, allowing just two more total yards
than the Ravens to finish second in the NFL at 84.6 per game.
Expect tough sledding for Mixon in the Divisional Round.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Easily the biggest mystery of the weekend
slate is what the Titans offense will look like, and that’s
because of the status of Derrick Henry (foot), who hasn’t
played since Halloween due to a foot injury. If he’s good
to go, you’d expect the offense to once again flow through
the star back; if not, look for more Ryan Tannehill. After hitting
a rough patch in November, the veteran closed with three solid
showings in a row that featured 616 combined yards to go with
7 TDs and no INTs. We could also see more running out of Tannehill,
who had 7 rushing scores on the year despite very judicious use.
In a do-or-die scenario there’s no reason to hold back.
Due in large to a spate of injuries, the one-two punch of A.J.
Brown (4-68-1) and Julio Jones (5-58-1) never delivered the type
of production many were anticipating when Tennessee made the move
to acquire Jones from Atlanta. Both finished on a high note, though,
and the extra week should be doubly beneficial for someone like
Jones, who has a lot of miles on his body. Anthony Firkser (4-56-1)
scored in each of the team’s final two games, and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
(4-78-1) flashed at times this year, creating a little risk/reward
potential for both.
Cincinnati finished 26th in pass defense (248.4 yards per game)
during the regular season, and they allowed Derek Carr to throw
for 310 yards in the Wild Card round -- though it did require
54 attempts with just 29 completions. While the Raiders have a
couple strong pass catchers, led by Darren Waller, they can’t
match the talent on the outside for Tennessee with Brown and Jones.
If Henry isn’t ready to return, the Titans may have to lean
more on their passing game to advance.
CIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.14
CIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.11
CIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
CIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.6
Running Game Thoughts: Prior to his injury, Henry was averaging
136 total yards and 1.25 TDs per game. If he can return, the bulldozing
back would offer a huge lift to the Titans, and his fresh legs
could give Cincy some real problems. If not, D’Onta Foreman
(21-69-0) should continue to function as the lead back with Dontrell
Hilliard sprinkled in. The Bengals were a stout group during the
regular season, yielding 102.5 yards per game on the ground; they
gave up 103 on just 14 rushing attempts to Las Vegas last weekend,
though, which amounts to a whopping 7.4 yards per carry.
49ers at Packers
- (Caron) Line: GB -6.0 Total: 46.5
Passing
Game Thoughts: 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo had
both a thumb and shoulder injury this week, but is expected to
start this weekend’s divisional-round matchup against the
Packers. Garoppolo’s thumb injury was certainly bothering
him this past week against the Cowboys and it might’ve been
the reason why he missed a few big passes during the game. He
ended up throwing for just 172 yards and no touchdowns with a
nearly-costly interception in what was certainly far from his
best performance. Garoppolo might be the 49ers’ starter,
but he’s one you should avoid for fantasy in the playoffs.
Wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk led the team in receiving against
Dallas, catching six passes for 66 yards against Dallas and has
now caught at least four passes in four straight games going back
to Week 16. He’s become a reliable WR2 option for fantasy,
although he hasn’t had the big spike weeks to make him a
viable WR1. He’ll also likely see quite a bit of coverage
this week from star cornerback Jaire Alexander who is returning
from injury for the Packers. While Alexander may not be back to
full health, he’s absolutely one of the better defensive
backs in the league and this is a potentially difficult situation
for Aiyuk. He’s more of a low-end WR2/high-end WR3/Flex
this week.
Do-it-all weapon Deebo Samuel continues to produce for fantasy
despite not a ton of receiving production, as he carried the ball
10 times for 72 yards and a touchdown against the Cowboys. Samuel
has scored double-digit PPR points in every game this season and
hasn’t been below 17 PPR points since Week 14. He’s
one of the most reliable players in fantasy because the 49ers
are scheming touches for him and he’s producing with those
opportunities. It doesn’t get much better than that.
While wide receiver Jauan Jennings was the star of the 49ers’
Week 18 victory over the Rams and it looked like he might be carving
out a bigger role in the San Francisco offense going forward,
he was back to being irrelevant against the Cowboys. He caught
just three passes for 29 yards and no touchdowns and he is not
a serious option for fantasy.
Tight end George Kittle is the player that fantasy owners have
to start getting worried about. Including his one-catch performance
against the Cowboys in the wild card round, Kittle has now failed
to reach even 30 yards or score a touchdown in four straight games.
However, while he’s been struggling, there really aren’t
many better tight ends in the league and it’d be extremely
difficult to justify benching him for fantasy. We just have to
hope for better usage and better days.
GB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.7
GB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.22
GB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.22
GB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.11
Running Game Thoughts: Running back Elijah Mitchell continues
to see massive workloads in the 49ers backfield when he’s
healthy and this past week’s game against Dallas was no
exception. Mitchell carried the ball 27 times, tying a season-high,
rushing for 96 yards and a touchdown. While he’s essentially
useless in the passing game most weeks, it’s hard to deny
his usage in one of the league’s most-productive rushing
attacks. Mitchell needs to be ranked as a strong RB1, even against
a Packers defense that gave up the eighth-fewest fantasy points
to opposing running backs during the regular season.
Passing
Game Thoughts: With a full week off to rest and prepare
as the NFC’s top seed, the Packers and likely NFL MVP quarterback
Aaron Rodgers host the 49ers in the divisional round of the playoffs.
Rodgers has been on fire all season long, throwing for multiple
touchdown passes all but two games while remaining perhaps the
best quarterback ever in limiting turnovers as he threw just four
picks all season. He lacks the rushing upside these days to truly
turn in massive fantasy performances unless he gets to the four/five/six
touchdown performances, but Rodgers remains one of the league’s
most consistent QB1 options for fantasy. He threw for 261 yards
and two touchdowns against the 49ers back in Week 3 and there’s
little reason to think he won’t be a great option at home
against the 49ers this week.
Super stud wide receiver Davante Adams is one of the top options
on the board this week as he faces a 49ers defense that he absolutely
torched back in Week 3. Adams caught 12 passes for 132 yards and
a touchdown in what was one of his most-productive games of the
season. He scored a touchdown and/or went over 100 yards in six
of his final seven games this season.
With Marquez Valdes-Scantling unlikely to suit up against the
49ers this week, one of the more under-the-radar options for fantasy
could be Allen Lazard. Lazard quietly put together a very successful
run down the stretch in the regular season that included five
touchdowns in his final five games. It’s hard to believe
that he’ll ever see a huge volume in the Packers offense
as long as Adams is healthy, but Lazard is a good bet to get into
the end zone against the 49ers.
Wide receiver Randall Cobb is back for the playoffs after being
out with a groin injury since Week 12, but he is not someone who
should be trusted for fantasy. Even before his injury, Cobb failed
to reach even 10 PPR fantasy points in eight of the 11 games he
played.
SF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.22
SF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.23
SF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.14
SF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.26
Running Game Thoughts: The split backfield in Green Bay continues
to be one of the more frustrating situations for fantasy football
whether you’re a manager who owns Aaron Jones or AJ Dillon.
If you’re looking for some sort of a trend, though, it should
be that Jones continues to be the more productive back on a per-touch
basis, particularly because he sees more usage in the passing
game. Jones scored 13 or more PPR fantasy points in four straight
starts to close out his regular season before missing Week 18’s
contest against the Lions with a knee injury. Meanwhile, Dillon
was held to single-digit PPR fantasy points in three of his final
four games, including a disappointing performance against the
Lions in Week 18 in which he ran the ball 14 times for just 63
yards and no touchdowns.
Still, the reality is that, as long as the other one is healthy,
both Jones and Dillon’s respective fantasy upsides are limited.
It’s been a long time since they played, but Green Bay’s
backfield split against the 49ers back in Week 3 saw Jones touch
the ball 21 times to Dillon’s eight. Things have evened
out a bit since then, but still, it appears that Jones is the
stronger option heading into this contest.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Fresh off a huge win over the Cardinals
in Phoenix, Matthew Stafford and the Rams now get to take on Tom
Brady and Buccaneers, with the winner advancing to the NFC Championship
Game.
Stafford scored the third-most points of any quarterback in the
Wild Card Weekend, with two passing touchdowns and a rushing score.
He paled in comparison to the monster games by Patrick Mahomes
and Josh Allen, who both threw for over 300 yards and five scores.
To beat the Buccaneers and their stout run defense this week,
Stafford will once again need to deliver with his arm and in the
passing game.
A big reason why Stafford should have success in this game is
the emergence of Odell Beckham Jr., who has done admirably in
filling in for the injured Robert Woods. OBJ has six touchdowns
since joining the team, including 4/54/1 last week vs. Arizona.
Of course, Cooper Kupp is the focal point of the offense after
becoming only the fourth player in the last 30 years to win the
triple crown of receiving, with the most yards, touchdowns, and
receptions.
Defensive Coordinator Todd Bowles will look to limit Kupp and
force OBJ and the other options on the Rams to beat them. But
that is easier said than done, as evident with the 9/96/2 line
Kupp dropped on the Bucs when the two teams played back in Week
3.
While we can look at that game for some guidance on how this
one could turn out, it is important to remember that the Bucs
were without a few starting cornerbacks in that game.
In keeping with the injury theme, the Bucs are a beat-up team
heading into Sunday. Starting linebacker Lavonte David was limited
on Thursday’s practice with a foot issue that he has played
with for the last few weeks, and corner Sean Murphy-Bunting was
limited as well with a hamstring. Both are likely to play, but
they will not be at full strength and could be targets in the
passing game.
Look for the Rams to continue to utilize tight end, Tyler Higbee
in this matchup. Tampa Bay finished in the middle of the pack
against tight ends, and their aggressive linebacking group can
be exploited in play-action passes off the run.
TB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.8
TB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.29
TB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.7
TB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.15
Running Game Thoughts: The return of Cam Akers to the field after
suffering an Achilles injury is nothing short of amazing. When
most players need a full calendar year or more to recover, the
second-year back managed to do it in half that time.
Akers ran the ball 17 times for 53 yards against the Cardinals
and added another 40 yards on a splash play in the passing game.
He clearly is going to be part of the ground game with four more
carries compared to backfield mate Sony Michel.
Unfortunately, neither is in line for a solid game in this matchup,
as the Bucs finished the season giving up the third-fewest points
to running backs.
Teams who have found success against the Bucs have done so in
the air, and Sean McVay is going to follow that script in this
game.
Passing
Game Thoughts: No Chris Godwin. No Antonio Brown. No
Problem. Tom Brady continues to amaze, playing at such a high
level despite losing two of his best weapons. Of course, you could
argue he has the best tight end of all time and the only player
in NFL history to start a career with eight-straight 1000-yard
seasons.
Regardless of how you want to look at it, Brady is playing at
an MVP level and will be a difficult matchup for the Rams.
From a matchup standpoint, it will be interesting to see how
the Rams utilize prized defended Jalen Ramsey. Will they have
him work more in the middle to stop Rob Gronkowski, or will they
use him to limit Mike Evans outside?
We anticipate it will be more Gronk, as Ramey’s size makes
him a more formidable matchup for Gronkowski.
Perhaps most critical is center Ryan Jensen, who has yet to practice
this week after suffering an ankle injury against the Eagles.
Jenson is key to the offense in both the run and passing game,
and he is critical in keeping pressure from coming up the middle.
Starting right tackle Tristan Wirfs is also very iffy with an
ankle injury.
Not good news for Brady, who will see a ton of Aaron Donald and
Von Miller. The Giants provided the league years ago the blueprint
on how to beat Tom Brady, with pressure up the middle and rushing
just four. With those injuries to Jenson and Wirfs, we could see
a similar outcome in this game.
LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.28
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.21
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.9
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20
Running Game Thoughts: With Leonard Fournette not ready to be
activated last week, the Bucs turned to veteran Giovani Bernard
and Ke’Shawn Vaughn. Both players reached the end zone and
finished as top-7 fantasy plays last week.
Fournette returned to practice this week, but his status is still
in doubt. Unless he is able to log a full practice on Friday,
look for Vaughn and Bernard to carry the load.
As good as the Rams are on defense, teams that do a good job of
doubling Donald and running counters like the 49ers have found
success. Without their top back, the Bucs may struggle running
the ball, but don’t be surprised to see Brady use them a
ton in the passing game.
Passing
Game Thoughts: QB Josh Allen is coming off what many
are calling the greatest postseason performance by a quarterback
in NFL history. He threw the ball just 25 times, but still eclipsed
300 yards passing and tossed five touchdowns against the vaunted
Patriots defense. It should go without saying that he is your
top fantasy QB play this week in all formats.
Stefon Diggs is the clear No.1 receiver here and a legitimate
WR1 for all owners. But it’s worth noting that his volume
has been hurt by the Bills’ increased focus on the run game
and Allen’s ability to get through progressions and spread
the ball. That’s not to say the numbers are bad, just inconsistent.
Targets over the last four games: 4, 14, 9, 13, 7. By that pattern,
it could be a big week for Diggs, especially against a Chiefs
defense that has allowed the 2nd most fantasy points per game
vs. QB’s this season, and over 23 fantasy points per game
against WR’s. The Chiefs did hold him to just two catches
in their Week 5 meeting, but he continues to be a big play threat
for Allen down the field.
Elsewhere, TE Dawson Knox tore up the Chiefs in that Week 5 game
for over 100 yards and a score. Don’t expect DC Steve Spagnuolo
to let that happen again. But that could open things up for WR
Isaiah McKenzie, who has flashed in his last two opportunities
and may have just wrestled away the slot position from veteran
Cole Beasley. Gabe Davis is a threat in the red zone with four
TD’s in the last five games of the regular season, but McKenzie
is my sleeper in this group.
KC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.2
KC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.13
KC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.15
KC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.17
Running Game Thoughts: The Bills have been decidedly run heavy
in recent weeks and RB Devin Singletary has been the engine behind
that push. He has gotten at least 16 carries in four of the last
five games, and every time has responded with at least 80 yards
on the ground. He’s also become more of a receiving threat,
and is finally getting some looks near the goal line with seven
rushing touchdowns and one touchdown catch in the last five games.
He’s a solid RB1 in DFS play this week.
The Chiefs have been solid against the run, particularly in the
second half of the year, but they have had their problems against
mobile QB’s, giving up nearly 400 rushing yards to QB’s
during the season. Allen, the Bills second-leading rusher, has
at least 5 carries in each of the last four games (including two
games in double digits) and is averaging over 8.0 yards per carry
in that stretch. Look for more scripted runs for Allen this week,
and don’t be surprised to see him take off, especially if
the Chiefs try to man-up downfield in the secondary.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Like Allen, QB Patrick Mahomes is coming
off a prolific outing against the Steelers in the Wild Card Round.
He became the first QB in NFL history to pass for 400+ yards and
five touchdowns in a playoff win. As a result, Mahomes is your
second choice at fantasy QB this week behind Allen, despite the
fact that the Bills are the best defense in the league against
fantasy QB’s, allowing just over 15 points per game. They
held Mahomes to 5.0 yards per attempt in Week 5, and picked him
off twice, but they also allowed 61 rushing yards in that game.
Look for Mahomes to be mobile and get out of the pocket this week
against a defense that can bring pressure (42 sacks in the regular
season) and get their hands on the ball (19 picks), and count
on QB Andy Reid to find creative ways to get Mahomes going early
in this game. He doesn’t want to get in a hole against this
Bills team.
WR Tyreek Hill and TE Travis Kelce are no-brainers for this week’s
DFS players, while Mecole Hardman and Demarcus Robinson take a
back seat with Hill’s return to full health. I like Byron
Pringle as a sleeper. His role has grown in recent weeks, drawing
at least seven targets in three of the last four games and responding
with four touchdowns and averaging over 10 yards per catch on
19 grabs.
BUF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.32
BUF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.25
BUF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.32
BUF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.30
Running Game Thoughts: With Clyde Edwards-Helaire (shoulder)
and Darrel Williams (toe) banged up and mildly unproductive, RB
Jerick McKinnon has taken over in the backfield. He is averaging
5.0 yards per carry in the run game and has caught all nine of
his targets, two for touchdowns. He totaled 142 yards last week
against the Steelers, and it’s hard to envision a scenario
where he would yield (at least early on) to a healthy Edwards-Helaire.
McKinnon is a playmaker, and the juice he brings to the passing
game will sit favorably with Reid’s play-calling sensibilities.