Rest assured someone at some point during each of your drafts
will utter some variation of the words “value pick.”
But what exactly is a value pick? What is value? Value is a relative
term that changes based on public perception. When I consider
value, I’m looking for a positive return on my investment.
Just because a player has an a fourth round ADP and is still sitting
there in the sixth round does not make him good value. At the
same time, taking a player a round or two above his ADP is not
necessarily bad value. Again, everything is relative.
My goal in every pick I make is to take a player I believe will
perform at a level above where I drafted him. Last season, Derrick Henry had a fourth round ADP. This year, he has a first round
ADP. Henry gave owners one hell of a positive return on investment.
On the flip side, Sony Michel had a fourth round ADP in 2019.
This year, he’s pretty much going undrafted. That’s
the type of pick we all hope to avoid.
Let’s take a look at which RBs I expect to outperform their ADPs
and which I expect to fail.
The case for Fournette being undervalued: He’s
a former fourth overall pick with no threat to his touches on
an offense that has more continuity heading into this season.
The case against Fournette being undervalued:
He was extremely inefficient last season and may lose half of
his target share.
Verdict: The first name on
last year’s version of this list was Leonard Fournette at
almost the exact same ADP and positional rank. I just don’t get
it. I have no delusions that Fournette has been the same elite
prospect he was coming out of LSU, but let’s look at what Fournette
has done. Through three seasons, he’s finished as the overall
RB12, RB9, and RB9. He’s missed 11 regular season games over that
span, but played in all 15 games of the fantasy season in 2019.
While he is an injury risk, he’s not prohibitively risky compared
to any other running back. How does a running back that is a lock
for 300 touches with zero backfield competition have an ADP lower
than his fantasy finishes every year of his career? It doesn’t
make sense.
The biggest knock on Fournette heading into 2020 is the certain
reduction in passing game volume. Fournette saw 100 targets last
season, which is going to drop. However, Fournette can lose half
his targets and still be an RB1. Based on touches, his expected
touchdown total for last season was 12. He scored three times.
As much of a lock as Fournette is to lose targets, he is to score
more touchdowns.
Fournette averaged 17.3 FPts/G last season. The RB16 averaged
14.5 FPts/G. For Fournette to bust at his ADP, he would likely
have to average fewer than 14 FPts/G. For him to be a value, he
merely has to be a little worse than last season. I don’t
make these statements lightly: Fournette is an absolute can’t
fail pick in 2020 (other than injury). Worst case scenario –
he’s inefficient, loses half his targets, and experiences
only a modest positive touchdown regression. Let’s say he
only catches 40 passes at the same yards per reception as last
season, scores six touchdowns, and his rushing efficiency remains
exactly as low as it was, giving him the same 1150 rushing yards.
He would average 13.6 FPts/G, 0.4 FPts/G lower than his bust number.
That is his rock bottom floor if everything goes wrong. His floor
is mid RB2.
But what if Fournette scores eight touchdowns? 10 touchdowns?
What if his efficiency increases with a full offseason of Gardner
Minshew as the locked in starter? What if his passing volume only
decreases by 75%? Fournette’s ceiling is top five.
If you are worried about 30 year old Chris Thompson that hasn’t
played anywhere near a full season since 2016 with a lengthy injury
history, I don’t really know what to say to you. Ryquell Armstead is only relevant backup. Simply put, Fournette has no
threat to touches whatsoever. How often can you get a 300+ touch
back in the third round? Take Fournette every time.
The case for Swift being undervalued: He’s a
talented prospect and the Lions drafted him early in the second
round.
The case against Swift being undervalued: He’s
a rookie in an unconventional season and may split touches with
Kerryon Johnson.
Verdict: It’s weird putting D’Andre Swift here because
I don’t think he’s a special player. The reason he’s
here is because his value and ceiling doesn’t seem to be
recognized by fantasy football gamers.
Johnson was a middling prospect that, after two years in the
NFL, is very clearly not a feature back. You can disagree with
that assessment if you want, but it really doesn’t matter
because the most important opinion is that of the Lions coaching
staff. If the Lions believed in Johnson, they wouldn’t have
limited him to a 63% opportunity share and 55% snap share over
his first two seasons. He was constantly splitting time with lesser
talented backs.
Enter Swift, a talented rookie that the team shelled out an early
second round pick to acquire. That’s a vote of confidence.
They didn’t bring in Swift to put behind Johnson. They may
split carries early on, but this will be a Swift 1A to Johnson
1B situation. Even if that holds for the entire season, Swift
should still be a low RB2. But what if Swift just vanquishes Johnson?
It’s certainly in his range of outcomes.
Swift’s ceiling is that of a low RB1. He posted a 10.1%
college target share and should see a fair amount of targets in
this offense. Matthew Stafford is back healthy and the Lions project
to be one of the better offenses in the league. If Swift can command
even a 60% opportunity share, he’s a lock to outperform
his ADP. I think we’re looking at Swift as a second round
pick heading into the 2021 season with a high floor, decent ceiling
and minimal risk. He should probably be going in the third round.
The case for Hunt being undervalued: He’s a
proven talent that out-produced Nick
Chubb after returning from suspension in 2019.
The case against Hunt being undervalued: As
long as Nick Chubb is around, Hunt’s ceiling is capped.
Verdict: Kareem Hunt only played in eight games last season due
to his suspension. In those eight games, he saw a 54.1% snap share
and averaged 5.6 targets per game. Those are extremely important
numbers.
Hunt is not going to out-snap Chubb, but they were on the field
together a fair amount of time. Meanwhile, Hunt immediately leapfrogged
Chubb in the passing game. Hunt projects to see 80+ targets over
a full season and we know targets are more valuable than carries
in fantasy football.
In his first six games, Hunt scored at least 11.8 fantasy points
in each of them. He was extremely consistent, finishing as a mid
to high RB2 in five out of his first six games. He busted in the
last game of the fantasy season against an elite Ravens defense
and we don’t count Week 17. Hunt is being drafted as an
RB3 despite establishing a mid-to-low RB2 with Chubb. If everything
operates as it did last season, Hunt is a value.
Now what happens if Chubb gets hurt? In any game Chubb misses,
Hunt is an elite RB1. If we erased Hunt from existence, Chubb
is a late first round pick. If we erased Chubb from existence,
Hunt is a top five pick, possibly top three. Hunt’s story
is the same as the other undervalued guys – high floor,
high ceiling.
The case for Montgomery being overvalued: He
was a bad prospect that played terribly as a rookie on a relatively
weak offense.
The case against Montgomery being overvalued:
He’s probably locked into 250 touches and volume matters more
than talent.
Verdict: David Montgomery finds himself in this space for the
second year in a row. He was a bad value last year and I expect
him to be even worse this year. Not to rehash everything, but
Montgomery isn’t good at anything except breaking tackles.
Part of the reason Montgomery breaks so many tackles is because
of his horrendous vision, 4.63 speed, and 10th percentile burst.
He doesn’t see the holes quickly enough and is too slow
to hit them when he does, causing him to constantly run into defenders.
That was evident in his college film and his rookie NFL film.
It has been reported that he cut from 12% body fat to 8% body
fat, but his weight remains unchanged. It’s not impossible
that he morphs into a better player – there’s just
no evidence that will happen.
Montgomery carried the ball 242 times as a rookie and saw 35
targets. Despite that massive opportunity, he averaged just 10.2
FPts/G, finishing as the overall RB30. He was a mid-range RB3
and he’s now being drafted as a low-end RB2 meaning improvement
is baked into his price.
I think it’s more likely Montgomery’s continued poor
play results in him losing work, especially to Tarik Cohen, who
saw an under the radar 104 targets in 2019. He’s one of
the premier pass catching backs in the league and Montgomery is
not cutting into Cohen’s work.
Montgomery posted a 2.1% breakaway run rate, 45th in the league
and 1.19 yards created per touch, 42nd in the league. His 28.1%
juke rate was 13th in the league, but he wasn’t able to
turn his ability to break tackles into anything productive. He
did all of this while seeing an average of just 6.5 defenders
in the box.
Montgomery was granted all of the opportunity but did nothing
with it. I have zero reason for optimism and expect Montgomery
to either be washed out of the league or end up as a rotational
third stringer by the end of his rookie deal. The Bears will have
a new starting running back in 2021. Don’t draft Montgomery.
The case for Mostert being overvalued: There’s
no guarantee that a former UDFA with an age 27 breakout will be
fantasy viable.
The case against Mostert being overvalued: The
49ers paid him and his backfield competition is the same as it
was when he took over last season.
Verdict: Week 13 is when the 49ers turned the backfield over
to Raheem Mostert. Since it’s such a small sample size,
I will include Week 17 for Mostert’s 18.2 FPts/G. He was
really good. Those numbers over a full season would put him at
overall RB8. Given his RB25 price, it may seem like a fair discount.
That’s not an unfair position. I’m just not interested.
Despite paying him, the 49ers have no allegiance to him. They
were very quick to ride Tevin Coleman’s hot hand in the
playoffs and it seems unreasonable to think that Mostert won’t
disappear in certain games due to Coleman or possibly a healthy
Jerick McKinnon.
Additionally, game script will work against Mostert as he’s
a zero in the passing game. Mostert saw just 22 targets last season
and he saw more than two targets in a game just three times all
season. Regardless of Mostert’s role, he wasn’t used
as a receiver and that’s unlikely to change, which caps
his ceiling.
Most importantly for me is history. Mostert succeeding would
be the most extreme of outliers. The track record for under the
radar running backs that were undrafted in fantasy football suddenly
breaking out and sustaining performance the following season is
quite poor. This does not include guys like Derrick Henry, Alvin Kamara or Nick Chubb that were actually regarded as good prospects,
but trapped behind established starters. This is specifically
referring to guys who nobody saw coming: Peyton Hillis, Zac Stacy,
Tre Mason, Andre Ellington, Joique Bell, Joseph Randle, Justin
Forsett, C.J. Anderson, Thomas Rawls, Jeremy Langford, Ty Montgomery,
Mike Gillislee, Alex Collins. That’s quite the list.
Mostert is more likely to go down the path of one of the above
than to suddenly emerge into this relevant fantasy back at age
28. The odds are higher than 0%, but they’re not high enough
for me to forego the tremendous WR value in the fifth round to
take Mostert.
The case for Dobbins being overvalued: He’s
a rookie in a backfield with an established starter and an efficient
complementary back.
The case against Dobbins being overvalued: The
kid is talented and it’s only a matter of time before he takes
over this backfield.
Verdict: I really like Dobbins long term. I’m confident
he is a future first round fantasy asset as early as 2021. If
Mark Ingram was erased from existence, Dobbins would be a second
round pick as a rookie. The problem is this smells very much like
a Derrick Henry/DeMarco Murray situation. We knew Henry was going
to be the guy just like we know Dobbins is going to be the guy.
It may even happen down the stretch in 2020. Unfortunately, a
sixth/seventh round pick is a steep price to pay for a back that
may have literally zero value for a significant portion of the
season.
When the Ravens take the field in Week 1, Ingram is going to
be the starter and it would not surprise me if Gus Edwards was
the next man in. Dobbins will have to earn his way into that second
spot (which he should do with relative ease). However, Edwards
has performed well when called upon and is not going away. I expect
the split to be 50-30-20 between Ingram-Dobbins-Edwards for a
good part of the season. For Dobbins to return value, he has to
flip that split in his favor. It’s inevitable that he will
do so, but the wait is not going to be worth it.
It’s very difficult to spend a mid-single digit round pick
on a player that will be a literal zero for your team for an indeterminate
amount of time that will be at least a few weeks. I like Dobbins
and want him in keeper and dynasty leagues. I would definitely
target him in a trade if I was a team sitting pretty mid-season.
I just can’t draft him as early as he’s going.
