A d v e r t i s e m e n t
In an effort to bring reader the most comprehensive fantasy
draft-day tool, sometimes the words can get in the way.
For those of you familiar with my columns, feel free to move
on down about 4-5 paragraphs and begin there. For those readers
just learning about the wonderful world of Preseason Matchup Analysis,
welcome to the program. (Where have you been?) Rather than provide
my usual greeting this week, I have decided to give you the option
of clicking on my previous Big Boards (1.0
and 2.0) to explain
my thought process in greater detail or simply get started on
the good stuff. Before we set the draft boards for the final time
this summer, here is the essential information to start your quest
toward fantasy glory:
Before I get to the boards, I would like to remind readers about
a few key points about the Big Boards:
1) My method of evaluating fantasy players
relies heavily on projected consistency and matchups, not overall
fantasy point total projections. All too often, fantasy
owners and even the so-called "experts" get hung up
by the final numbers. Don't get me wrong, I want all my players
to have 300+ points at the end of the season. But as the old saying
goes, "It's not about the destination, it's about the journey";
if my RB1 gives me seven spectacular performances along with six
duds during the regular season, there's a fairly decent chance
I may end up 7-6. I don’t want that and neither should you.
2) I will push a player down my
board if feel he is a health risk or if I simply don’t/can’t
trust him. I will put more stock into this area
in 2013 than I ever have. If you take the time to break down
each position I provide below, you will notice that I don’t
follow the point totals or averages to a tee. (Think of the average
and value I provide for each player as a starting point for my
rankings.) Outside of trust issues, I will push a player down
my board – despite a higher average or overall point total
– if I believe he will simply be less consistent throughout
the season or if his playoff schedule appears treacherous.
3) Much like last season, I want to provide readers with a clear
risk sign. If a player is a moderate risk – be it due to
holdout, injury, off-field, etc. – you will see a 
next his name. If I feel a player is a severe risk, your will
see a 
next to his name. While I feel like I have accounted for each
player’s “risk” with their spot on the Big Board,
you may be more or less inclined to deal with that risk than I
am. This is just another way of helping you take a look at the
board and quickly identifying which players stand a good chance
to frustrate you at some point this season.
As I have done in recent years, I have taken the additional step
on the final set of Big Boards to designate players to their “fantasy
position”. Keep in mind that just because there may be 12
teams in your league, it doesn’t mean there are 12 players
worthy of being designated as a QB1, RB1, WR1 or TE1. As much
as anything, let these designations serve as a guide as to when
one tier ends and another begins.
QB1/RB1/WR1/TE1 – A player
I am comfortable starting every week, regardless of matchup.
1/2, 2/3, 3/4 (All positions) –
A player that can occasionally post numbers with a player in the
tier above him, but is usually either too inconsistent to be considered
in that tier or has a poor track record of staying healthy.
QB2/TE2 – A bye-week or matchup-based
quarterback or tight end.
RB2/WR2 – A back or receiver
that can post RB1/WR1 numbers with high upside, but has an obvious
flaw that makes him less consistent than a RB1 or WR1.
RB3/WR3 - Usually is an inconsistent
“splash” player (DeSean Jackson is a perfect example
at WR) that can win his fantasy team with a huge performance,
but is best utilized when the matchup is right.
RB4/WR4 – Usually a steady,
lower-upside option that can be spot-started and used as a bye-week
fill-in. In some cases, he is a high-upside player blocked by
two top-level players in front of him.
RB5/WR5 – Usually a “handcuff”,
but a player who is on the roster generally to keep the ship from
sinking due to injury.
RB6/WR6 – Extreme longshots
due to any number of factors, but with enough talent to be viable
at some point in fantasy.
Let’s revisit the color-coding system before we start:
Red – A very difficult matchup.
For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be
used in fantasy that week. For a second- or third-tier player,
drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e.
from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one
level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like a
RB2).
Yellow – Keep expectations
fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow
matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier
player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall
right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average
production.
White – Basically, this matchup
is one that could go either way. In some cases, I just don’t
feel like I have a good feel yet for this defense. Generally speaking,
these matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.
Green – It doesn’t
get much better than this. For non-elite players, the stage is
basically set for said player to exploit the matchup. For the
elite player, this matchup should produce special numbers..
Key:
OVR – Overall Rank
PR – Position Rank
FPts – Fantasy points scored
FPts/ G – Fantasy points/game
Value - Read *** below
***In short, the value that you will see below is based on the VORP
(Value Over Replacement Player) concept for a two-RB, three-WR league,
which allows me to essentially compare apples and oranges. At QB
and TE, the value reflects the standard deviation from the 12th
player at the position – the last starting-caliber player
at the position. At RB and WR, the standard deviation is based on
the 24th and 36th player at the position, respectively. 7 One last
note to mention regarding the values – numbers that are bolded
reflect positive values while the italicized numbers are essentially
negative. (For the more statistically-inclined, the former values
are on the right side of the bell curve while the latter values
are on the left side.)
Here is the scoring
system that I used to rank the players in the Non-PPR format:
Top 25: Given his ability to
turn any play into a big play, Spiller is not in danger of falling
out of the top six. In fact, it could be argued that EJ Manuel’s
running ability only strengthens Spiller’s chances of making
a run for 2,000 total yards. But even the staunchest supporters
of Spiller have to be feeling a little queasy as Buffalo will likely
turn to third-string undrafted free agent Jeff Tuel in Week 1 against
the Patriots. Tuel has been sharp in the preseason (21-of-26 for
236 yards), but much of the Bills’ passing attack in the preseason
has been within five yards of the line of scrimmage – based
on my observations anyway. It also goes without saying that Tuel
probably isn’t going to strike the same kind of fear into
New England that Manuel would have. And perhaps Manuel’s “minor
knee procedure” will not be an issue if/when he returns in
Week 2, but anything more than a one-game absence means multiple
games with Tuel, Matt Leinart or Thaddeus Lewis (who I actually
like more than every other quarterback on the roster besides Manuel).
Obviously, that would lead to multiple games where Spiller is the
sole focus of every gameplan. It is something for owners to think
about as owners in the early-to-middle part of the first round decide
who to build their fantasy franchise around in 2013.
In my most updated projections, I have Ridley running for 1,240
yards and 14 scores in 15 games – numbers that I believe
represent his ceiling and assume that he won’t have any
more fumbling issues. That total alone would almost guarantee
any other back RB1 status, but Ridley’s inability to contribute
in the passing game (nine catches in 32 career games) catches
up to him, even in this format. It is for that reason he is stretched
as anything more than a mid-level RB2 and could actually be less
valuable than any other player ranked in this part of my Big Board.
He’s even more risky than just about every other player
in the top 25 as well since Vereen will play almost every passing
down, during the two-minute drill or comeback situations and could
actually be the flavor of the week as a rusher in any given game.
For a top-15 back going in the mid-to-late second round, that’s
an awful lot of time he’s not spending on the field. As
such, I can understand why any owner that would rather select
a top-flight receiver in the mid-second round and draft a player
like Lacy, Sproles or even David Wilson in the third.
26-50: I would argue there
are 11 receivers I feel safe calling fantasy WR1s. Decker and
Nelson are also in the discussion, but perhaps no receiver brings
the upside of Garcon. At last check, owners rarely complain when
their receiver’s quarterback is the only wideout they care
to throw to on a regular basis. Of course, there is a hint of
exaggeration in that statement, but if the Redskins’ passing
game operates in the same manner it did last season, it means
there will be a lot of one-read passes for Griffin. That’s
not to suggest RG3 can’t handle more, it is merely what
I observed when Garcon was healthy. As the “X” receiver
in OC Kyle Shanahan’s offense, Garcon plays the same role
that Andre Johnson did when Shanahan was in Houston. Like Johnson,
the ex-Colt doesn’t exactly have a lot of other quality
receivers to share the ball with in D.C. If Garcon can stay healthy
– a rather big “if” – the Redskins’
running game will ensure he will not see much in the way of double
coverage. In that scenario, a full 16 games from Garcon could
easily allow him to finish inside the top 10 in standard leagues.
Even given the somewhat unpredictable nature of standard scoring,
there are few running backs that can offer the boom-or-bust potential
each week than David Wilson figures to in 2013. I have repeatedly
made the comparison to Chris Johnson for the simple fact that
Wilson is as explosive as any back in the league, but he also
has a lot going against him on his own depth chart. Forget for
a second that Andre Brown is probably the Giants’ goal-line
back because most of Wilson’s fantasy contributions figured
to come via big plays anyway. The bigger problem is that Brown
is also seeing a lot of passing-down work as well, meaning Wilson
almost has to produce a big play every week until he either improves
his pass-blocking skills or Brown gets hurt. The dilemma for fantasy
owners: both could very well happen this season since players
tend to make big jumps in their second year and Brown hasn’t
been the most durable player. As a result, Wilson is worthy of
a third-round pick in this format because, as far as he appears
to be from being a full-time back, it’s not as far away
as it seems. He really is a break or two away from a top-15 RB
finish.
51-100: The best thing McFadden
has going for him heading into 2013 is this season can be his
final one in Oakland. While the Raiders made the right call in
switching back to the same power-running game model they used
in 2011, his offensive line projects to be the worst one in the
NFL following the loss of LT Jared Veldheer. (Oakland’s
offensive line, from left to right, will consist of rookie Menelik
Watson, Lucas Nix/Tony Bergstrom, Stefen Wisniewski, Mike Brisiel
and Khalif Barnes.) No matter what the scheme, it is going to
be incredibly difficult for Oakland to stick with its running
game even if OL coach Tony Sparano rallies the troops because
the defense also figures to be every bit as bad. Thus, much of
McFadden’s value could actually come via the passing game
– and that assumes FB Marcel Reece does not steal third-down
work from him. Let’s also not forget McFadden’s lack
of durability. If McFadden somehow overcomes all the obstacles
I have laid out and the staff figures out how to best utilize
Pryor, McFadden might finish among the top 20 running backs in
all formats; it’s just not a gamble I would take before
the fifth round.
Few will question the top three fantasy tight ends in Graham,
Gronkowski and Gonzalez. While the debate conceivably starts at
No. 4, in standard leagues, Rudolph should get the nod since he
is seemingly Ponder’s default option in the red zone while
Witten is almost an afterthought for Romo inside the 2. Be that
as it may, the intrigue for me begins at No. 7 since all three
players (Finley, Cameron and Davis) have the skill set to challenge
the top three, just like Rudolph. I’ve been skeptical of
the buzz about Finley and Davis all summer long, but I have reason
to believe Finley’s right now more than Davis’. Why?
Finley plays on an offense with the best quarterback in the league.
He is also coming off a 61-catch season in which he butted heads
with Rodgers and didn’t really start to emerge until the
second half. Perhaps most importantly, he looks the part now from
a size standpoint as well as in his play this preseason. We’ve
discussed Cameron enough in previous weeks, so we’ll move
on to Davis. On one hand, Davis is a player that has reportedly
built an impressive rapport with Kaepernick throughout the offseason
and training camp. On the other hand, he has shown an incredible
knack lately of disappointing in fantasy during the regular season
only to explode during the NFL playoffs. Were it not for his place
in a run-oriented offense, I might be tempted to rank him higher.
With that said, no other tight end’s upside is higher than
Davis’ and, at the cost of a late sixth- or early seventh-rounder,
his price tag is no longer too high.
101-150: Le’Veon
Bell’s training camp and preseason was an extreme example
of the phrase, “Welcome to the NFL, rookie”. First, it was soreness
in his left knee, which caused him to miss the Steelers' preseason
opener. Days later, he aggravated the knee in practice. He returned
to make an appearance in the Steelers' second preseason game,
but that outing was cut short due to injury. Last Monday, Bell
sprained his right foot after playing in just one series. The
Steelers are calling his latest setback a mid-foot sprain – as
opposed to a Lisfranc injury – and have yet to announce a timetable.
Still, to be on the safe side, I am projecting Bell to miss the
first four games as I believe Pittsburgh will eye his return after
the team’s Week 5 bye – giving him nearly eight weeks to recover.
Bell was incredibly durable in college despite a heavy workload,
so this recent rash of injuries would seem to be a terrible run
of bad luck (and possibly a result of the physical camp HC Mike
Tomlin reportedly had) for a player that could easily be a solid
flex option when healthy – if not a low-end RB2. Like Harvin,
owners would be wise to invest a pick near the 10th round area
or after with the idea that he will be able to contribute at some
point before the second half of the season. Assuming a full recovery,
it’s a more than reasonable price to pay for solid depth at a
shallow position.
Moreno makes his first Big Board appearance of the year and rightfully
so considering the aforementioned struggles of the two players
(Ball and Hillman) that were supposed to run him out of town.
While the lead-back role should go to Ball once he acclimates
himself to the NFL, Hillman’s fumbling woes could be just
what Moreno needed to get some early-season run in Denver. The
fifth-year back is easily the most trusted option of the three
backs in all aspects in the passing game, which just happens to
be the team’s strong point. Moreno doesn’t offer a
ton of upside in fantasy, but last year’s second half served
as proof once again that a steady veteran back in a Peyton Manning-led
offense is typically a good fantasy option. And it seems like
every year we see at least one veteran player – who starts
the season as a fill-in until the hot-shot youngster gets up to
speed – makes himself impossible to take off the field as
his team gets off to a fast start. Moreno is more than capable
of being that kind of threat and more than worthy of a late-round
pick in hopes that the muddled Broncos backfield is every bit
as unclear at midseason as it is now.
151-200: It is rare that we
need to discuss third-string running backs at the beginning of
the season, but Karim may be the exception given Foster’s
recent injury concerns and Tate’s lack of durability throughout
his pro career. Although Dennis Johnson is a more impressive athlete
and gifted runner, Karim has done a much better job during the
preseason of simply finding the hole and getting what he can.
Karim – who once was considered a freakish athlete best
suited for third-down duties and kickoff returns – is also
much stronger (and bulkier) than I can remember him being at any
point in the NFL. The former Jaguar and Colt is not the explosive
runner I recall from his early days, but his 6.1 YPC against a
mixture of first- and second-stringers this preseason should raise
an eyebrow. In Houston’s scheme, even a player like Karim
could produce like a low-end RB2 or solid flex if Foster and Tate
struggle to stay healthy. Again, my preference would be to see
the more explosive Johnson, but the undrafted free agent has to
learn to trust the Texans’ zone-blocking system first.
Next: Big
Board: Ks & D/STs 
Suggestions, comments, about the article or
fantasy football in general? E-mail
me or follow me on Twitter.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today
since 2006 and appeared in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview
magazine in 2010 and 2011. He hosted USA Today’s hour-long,
pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday this past
season. Doug regularly appears as a fantasy football analyst on
Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive” and for 106.7 The
Fan (WJFK – Washington, D.C). He is also a member of the Fantasy
Sports Writers Association. |
