A d v e r t i s e m e n t
In an effort to bring reader the most comprehensive fantasy
draft-day tool, sometimes the words can get in the way.
For those of you familiar with my columns, feel free to move
on down about 4-5 paragraphs and begin there. For those readers
just learning about the wonderful world of Preseason Matchup Analysis,
welcome to the program. (Where have you been?) Rather than provide
my usual greeting this week, I have decided to give you the option
of clicking on my previous Big Boards (1.0
and 2.0) to explain
my thought process in greater detail or simply get started on
the good stuff. Before we set the draft boards for the final time
this summer, here is the essential information to start your quest
toward fantasy glory:
Before I get to the boards, I would like to remind readers about
a few key points about the Big Boards:
1) My method of evaluating fantasy players
relies heavily on projected consistency and matchups, not overall
fantasy point total projections. All too often, fantasy
owners and even the so-called "experts" get hung up
by the final numbers. Don't get me wrong, I want all my players
to have 300+ points at the end of the season. But as the old saying
goes, "It's not about the destination, it's about the journey";
if my RB1 gives me seven spectacular performances along with six
duds during the regular season, there's a fairly decent chance
I may end up 7-6. I don’t want that and neither should you.
2) I will push a player down my
board if feel he is a health risk or if I simply don’t/can’t
trust him. I will put more stock into this area
in 2013 than I ever have. If you take the time to break down
each position I provide below, you will notice that I don’t
follow the point totals or averages to a tee. (Think of the average
and value I provide for each player as a starting point for my
rankings.) Outside of trust issues, I will push a player down
my board – despite a higher average or overall point total
– if I believe he will simply be less consistent throughout
the season or if his playoff schedule appears treacherous.
3) Much like last season, I want to provide readers with a clear
risk sign. If a player is a moderate risk – be it due to
holdout, injury, off-field, etc. – you will see a 
next his name. If I feel a player is a severe risk, your will
see a 
next to his name. While I feel like I have accounted for each
player’s “risk” with their spot on the Big Board,
you may be more or less inclined to deal with that risk than I
am. This is just another way of helping you take a look at the
board and quickly identifying which players stand a good chance
to frustrate you at some point this season.
As I have done in recent years, I have taken the additional step
on the final set of Big Boards to designate players to their “fantasy
position”. Keep in mind that just because there may be 12
teams in your league, it doesn’t mean there are 12 players
worthy of being designated as a QB1, RB1, WR1 or TE1. As much
as anything, let these designations serve as a guide as to when
one tier ends and another begins.
QB1/RB1/WR1/TE1 – A player
I am comfortable starting every week, regardless of matchup.
1/2, 2/3, 3/4 (All positions) –
A player that can occasionally post numbers with a player in the
tier above him, but is usually either too inconsistent to be considered
in that tier or has a poor track record of staying healthy.
QB2/TE2 – A bye-week or matchup-based
quarterback or tight end.
RB2/WR2 – A back or receiver
that can post RB1/WR1 numbers with high upside, but has an obvious
flaw that makes him less consistent than a RB1 or WR1.
RB3/WR3 - Usually is an inconsistent
“splash” player (DeSean Jackson is a perfect example
at WR) that can win his fantasy team with a huge performance,
but is best utilized when the matchup is right.
RB4/WR4 – Usually a steady,
lower-upside option that can be spot-started and used as a bye-week
fill-in. In some cases, he is a high-upside player blocked by
two top-level players in front of him.
RB5/WR5 – Usually a “handcuff”,
but a player who is on the roster generally to keep the ship from
sinking due to injury.
RB6/WR6 – Extreme longshots
due to any number of factors, but with enough talent to be viable
at some point in fantasy.
Let’s revisit the color-coding system before we start:
Red – A very difficult matchup.
For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be
used in fantasy that week. For a second- or third-tier player,
drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e.
from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one
level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like a
RB2).
Yellow – Keep expectations
fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow
matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier
player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall
right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average
production.
White – Basically, this matchup
is one that could go either way. In some cases, I just don’t
feel like I have a good feel yet for this defense. Generally speaking,
these matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.
Green – It doesn’t
get much better than this. For non-elite players, the stage is
basically set for said player to exploit the matchup. For the
elite player, this matchup should produce special numbers..
Key:
OVR – Overall Rank
PR – Position Rank
FPts – Fantasy points scored
FPts/ G – Fantasy points/game
Value - Read *** below
***In short, the value that you will see below is based on the VORP
(Value Over Replacement Player) concept for a two-RB, three-WR league,
which allows me to essentially compare apples and oranges. At QB
and TE, the value reflects the standard deviation from the 12th
player at the position – the last starting-caliber player
at the position. At RB and WR, the standard deviation is based on
the 24th and 36th player at the position, respectively. 7 One last
note to mention regarding the values – numbers that are bolded
reflect positive values while the italicized numbers are essentially
negative. (For the more statistically-inclined, the former values
are on the right side of the bell curve while the latter values
are on the left side.)
Here is the scoring
system that I used to rank the players in the PPR format:
Top 25: One could easily make
the case that Dez Bryant – and not Calvin Johnson –
will be the top fantasy receiver in 2013, especially after seeing
all the positive matchups the ultra-talented Cowboys’ receiver
has compared to “Megatron”. The problem is that if Bryant
is going to overtake Johnson, he’ll likely need to break Romo’s
unbreakable bond with Witten to get enough receptions to keep up.
Mind you, it isn’t as if Bryant was a slouch in the catch
department (92 in 2012), but Dallas appears committed to running
the ball more often in 2013 and a number of the same short throws
that Johnson will get to boost his final numbers will end up in
Witten’s hands in Dallas. No one will argue both Johnson and
Bryant are the focal points of their respective passing games, but
Johnson appears to have the ideal combination of talent, volume
and no other top-level player to share receptions in an offense
that figures to throw at least 650 times. Regardless, Bryant is
one of the few players in the league that belongs in the same sentence
as Johnson and there is a distinct possibility he’ll take
another step and reach the 100-catch, 1,500-yard, 10-12 TD club
this season.
The general consensus is that Graham is the best tight end in
fantasy and most of us expect him to return to his 2011 totals;
this much we already know. But what 2011 wasn’t his ceiling?
Although new Saints DC Rob Ryan was brought in to fix the defense,
there’s a pretty good chance that reclamation project will
carry over through into 2014 and leave the Saints in a position
where they will be in shootout mode in at least half their games.
But let’s take a deeper look at what Graham will face: in
Weeks 1-5, it is entirely possible Graham will be “normal”
with Tampa Bay, Arizona and Chicago all capable of keeping Graham
somewhat in check. From Week 6 on, there is a question mark at
safety with almost every one of New Orleans’ opponents,
with the juiciest matchups coming last. Few defenses will be forced
to cover up their safeties more than Carolina (Week 14 and 16)
and St. Louis – the Saints’ two opponents over the
final three weeks of the fantasy season. Unfortunately for the
Panthers and Rams, the Saints don’t typically allow opponents
to hide overmatched defenders. Although it is entirely possible
2011 was a career year for Graham, just consider the possibility
that it might actually the first of several mind-blowing seasons
for this generation’s Tony Gonzalez.
26-50: Initially, I was fascinated
with the idea that Bowe was finally going to have a chance to
become the best receiver to work in an Andy Reid-coached offense
since Terrell Owens. Over the last week, I have backtracked a
bit for the simple reason that Alex Smith has rarely ever challenged
defenses downfield nor has he ever made a receiver all that relevant
in fantasy. Bowe has been carrying the passing game in Kansas
City for years and has managed to stay on the fantasy radar despite
some awful quarterback play, but can we just naturally assume
his numbers will improve just because Reid is calling the shots
now? It’s a dangerous conclusion to jump to when trying
to figure out what players deserve the WR1 label and which ones
don’t, which caused me to push him down into mid fourth-round
– a time many owners are filling their WR2 slot. Although
I do believe a career year is still quite likely (in terms of
receptions and yards), I am not longer willing to bet he will
keep pace with the Victor Cruzs and Vincent Jacksons of the fantasy
world.
Bernard has a long ways to go to be a complete back. I have seen
him get run over in pass protection and get pushed back more often
up on inside runs than I’d like to see from a possible future
feature back. The last criticism may seem a bit harsh for a player
who scored two preseason touchdowns inside the 2, but the inability
to get yards after contact up the middle did jump out to me watching
the Bengals’ first two preseason games. Fortunately for
him and his redraft fantasy value, he won’t be spending
a lot of time running inside and his committee backfield partner
(Green-Ellis) offers little else besides a great ability to convert
in short-yardage and goal-line situations. In some ways, Bernard
is the 2013 version of David Wilson in that his receiving ability
is not in question and his open-field ability can be electric
at times, but the other passing-game skills necessary to stay
on the field all three downs are lacking at this point. Still,
Green-Ellis is a specialist that was stretched as a feature back
last season and Cincinnati claims it wants more explosive plays
out of the running game. If they are true to their word, the Bengals
will almost certainly move to a 60:40 split with the rookie leading
the way around midseason.
51-100: From about the time
he entered the league, I have been waiting for Colston’s
fantasy value to fall into the fifth-round range, which is about
the time I am usually selecting my first or second receiver. The
few times he has been available in that range was when he was
coming off injury-plagued seasons, but there are enough hot names
in front of him this time around that he could land in that area
this season. Colston doesn’t run particularly well nor does
he separate from defenders all that much, yet he keep producing
80-catch, 1,000-yard, 8-10 TD seasons as if that is what every
one of Brees’ lead receivers are supposed to do. I’m
not going to pound the table for Decker any more than I already
have, since it is pretty clear the fantasy community believes
Welker will make him somewhat obsolete. Just count me among the
few that feels Welker will not steal the targets of Jacob Tamme,
Brandon Stokley and some of Decker’s from a season ago.
It would be one thing if Denver was able to run the ball consistently.
However, that’s a tough sell with Hillman fumbling, Ball
failing to impress and Moreno the only back the team knows it
can trust. It all adds up to a lot of passes attempts in Denver
and more than enough footballs to feed three receivers and even
a tight end.
While his stat line was a thing of beauty against Detroit, Thompkins
was perhaps the most impressive receiver I saw through the early
Week 3 preseason games with his ability to get open and catch
almost everything. Entering this weekend, I naturally assumed
Aaron Dobson would overtake the hot-shot undrafted free agent
no later than midseason and fulfill the promise that many expected
him to deliver on. After watching the Lions’ game, it is
possible I still have him too low as an eighth-round value despite
moving him up on a weekly basis. Obviously, his 8-116-0 line against
the Lions was inflated by the absence of Amendola, but it doesn’t
take away from the fact that he did not struggle to separate.
With a stout running game and Amendola working in the short and
intermediate areas, most defenses are going to live with Thompkins
beating them – something he hasn’t struggled to do
in the preseason. Furthermore, the University of Cincinnati product
could be in for a huge September as Brady looks to begin the season
without Gronkowski.
101-150: If you didn’t
like Mendenhall before this past weekend, well, you have even
less reason to like him now. The first blow to his fantasy stock
was the news that first-round draft choice LG Jonathan Cooper
will be out indefinitely with a fractured fibula. The second shot
across the bow is his current injury status. Mendenhall reportedly
told HC Bruce Arians he felt “looseness” in the same
surgically-repaired right knee that hampered him for most of 2012
following the Cardinals’ dress-rehearsal game against the
Chargers. Officially, he was diagnosed with a minor knee sprain,
but Mendenhall was already facing more issues regarding his fantasy
stock than any other back outside of maybe Darren McFadden. It
could be argued that Mendenhall actually has more going against
him in that he plays for a pass-happy coach behind one of the
worst offensive lines in the league…and that was before
the loss of Cooper. He was already a weak flex option, so with
the team shopping Ryan Williams, owners need to push Mendenhall
back on their cheat sheets and become more familiar with rookie
Stepfan Taylor. At this point, I’d rather use a 10th round
draft pick on a player like Harvin, who at least has a chance
to be productive in fantasy upon his return – even if he
does miss over half the season.
In the same game that Thompkins stole the show, my second takeaway
was how impressive Joique
Bell looks. Bell wasn’t even so much as an afterthought in
Detroit – much less fantasy – until he rushed for 414 yards and
caught 52 passes in 2012. Out-of-touch owners will likely view
Leshoure as Reggie
Bush’s handcuff and the Lions’ goal-line back, but it seems
pretty clear Bell has the former job pretty much wrapped up and
maybe even the latter. Bell probably isn’t going to push 50 catches
if Reggie Bush can stay healthy, but Detroit would be unwise to
run Bush into the ground considering his injury history. At worst,
Bell owners are probably looking at a poor man’s Pierre Thomas
in that he will offer some appeal as a flex option or bye-week
fill-in in deeper leagues when everyone is healthy. Going in the
13th round on average in PPR leagues (per Fantasy Football Calculator),
Bell makes for a solid get near the end of drafts.
151-200: I can’t guarantee
that Oakland will make any player fantasy-relevant in the passing
game – especially if it opts to go with Terrelle
Pryor at quarterback – but if the Raiders do have one such
player, it could be Ausberry. Unless you play in a very deep league,
the chances Ausberry will be drafted are pretty slim. He’s also
questionable for Week 1, further strengthening the possibility
he will not be selected. But on a team that lacks a quarterback
that can get the deep ball to its most dynamic weapon (Moore)
and will be playing from behind A LOT, there is reason to believe
Ausberry – clearly the most impressive tight end I’ve seen on
the Raiders this preseason – can produce in garbage time much
like Brandon
Myers did in 2012. Rod
Streater and Brice Butler could end up starting by year’s
end if Raiders’ coaches continue to be displeased with Moore’s
maturity and lack of attention to detail, so it isn’t hard to
understand how a fairly athletic player like Ausberry could be
the next Raiders tight end to come out of nowhere
to become a viable PPR play.
Next: Non-PPR
Big Board 
Suggestions, comments, about the article or
fantasy football in general? E-mail
me or follow me on Twitter.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today
since 2006 and appeared in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview
magazine in 2010 and 2011. He hosted USA Today’s hour-long,
pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday this past
season. Doug regularly appears as a fantasy football analyst on
Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive” and for 106.7 The
Fan (WJFK – Washington, D.C). He is also a member of the Fantasy
Sports Writers Association. |
